MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-10 02:46:37

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Chicago White Sox
			Chris Archer							Miguel Gonzalez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -120							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.312	42.9%	8.6%	28.9%	43.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.361	34.2%	7.9%	14.5%	33.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.293	36.3%	5.8%	29.6%	40.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.333	31.2%	8.2%	14.8%	39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Archer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$9,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		8 of 26	Salary Rank:		6 of 26	Salary Rank:
	2017	34	3.44	4.07	29.2%	7.0%	42.0%	39.4%	13.2%
	2018	2	2.96	6.55	29.8%	8.5%	41.4%	37.9%	24.1%

There are three games that start before the main slate, but only the first two are included in the early-only slate. Luckily, the slate is actually playable with Chris Archer on the mound. He may own a 6.55 ERA through his first two starts, but he has some positive regression coming his way. His SIERA during that stretch is 2.96 with a strikeout rate just under 30%. The White Sox are a team that we can pick on with right-handed pitching. Outside of their top three batters, this is an exploitable matchup. In fact, their projected lineup has five hitters with at least a 26% strikeout rate against righties. Archer is an elite arm, he has an excellent matchup, and his price is discounted.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t overthink this one, use Archer as your SP1 in the early-only slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Miguel Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 26	Salary Rank:		12 of 26	Salary Rank:
	2017	27	5.39	4.62	14.6%	8.0%	36.2%	32.5%	16.4%
	2018	1	4.00	9.00	16.0%	8.0%	52.6%	36.8%	21.1%

Gonzalez picked up right where he left off last season. He’s not on the right side of father time, so I’m expecting another year of successful stacking against Gonzalez. He finished the 2017 season with a 5.39 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 15%. The Rays are a team that we can pick on with left-handed pitchers, but their lineup doesn’t look nearly as bad when facing a righty. They’ve gotten off to a slow start this season, but that’s a byproduct of the early season schedule. If you look at the projected lineup below, you can see that six of their projected starters have a .180+ ISO against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even though he’s only a small underdog, Gonzalez is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a significant ballpark boost playing in Chicago, which reminds me — I should add the ballpark ratings graph to the Grind Down. Now that those are added, you can see that this is a good ballpark as a whole, especially for left-handed hitters. Denard Span, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mallex Smith are intriguing plays that shouldn’t garner a ton of ownership, even in this small two-game slate. Carlos Gomez, Matt Duffy, C.J. Cron, and Wilson Ramos are also viable thanks to the fact that Miguel Gonzalez has allowed a .333 xwOBA to right-handed hitters since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.343	0.339	0.180	27.7%	7.4%	12.5%	41.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.347	0.302	0.202	36.2%	8.6%	23.7%	42.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.354	0.353	0.227	42.0%	8.5%	29.3%	39.5%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.461	0.277	0.235	30.8%	0.0%	23.5%	46.2%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.307	0.334	0.162	34.7%	5.5%	25.7%	33.2%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.284	0.332	0.183	32.1%	4.0%	17.8%	52.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.303	0.258	0.087	21.3%	9.4%	19.1%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.321	0.218	0.214	30.4%	3.3%	20.0%	47.8%	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.280	0.295	0.119	36.1%	2.9%	19.4%	49.8%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Kevin Kiermaier

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gomez, Matt Duffy, C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos, Mallex Smith

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Chris Archer has struggled a bit since the start of last season. His advanced statistics all check out, but he’s had a crazy BABIP and HR/FB rate, which has led to a high ERA. We can expect some positive regression for him moving forward and that could very well start today against the White Sox. While this is a good ballpark for run production, it is expected to be 37 degrees at first pitch. The colder the weather, the harder it is to score runs. Add in a matchup against Archer and this becomes an easy offense to fade, even in this small slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.350	0.373	0.215	44.6%	14.7%	32.2%	42.4%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.353	0.367	0.179	33.9%	5.7%	20.0%	50.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.358	0.361	0.238	39.3%	4.7%	16.7%	45.3%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.303	0.309	0.252	41.0%	4.7%	39.0%	39.4%	3B	$3,200	1B/3B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Nick Delmonico	LEFT	0.347	0.304	0.202	27.8%	11.9%	18.9%	39.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.335	0.348	0.210	37.6%	7.1%	26.1%	41.8%	C	$2,700	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.269	0.263	0.142	27.9%	3.0%	28.3%	53.1%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.334	0.301	0.166	26.1%	6.6%	19.4%	46.7%	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.211	0.223	0.100	26.2%	5.7%	37.8%	41.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Cleveland
			Francisco Liriano							Corey Kluber
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-245							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.262	0.266	18.8%	5.4%	21.4%	53.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.250	0.268	30.9%	5.9%	32.3%	44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.376	0.373	34.2%	13.9%	18.2%	41.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.231	0.249	27.9%	3.6%	34.7%	45.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Francisco Liriano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 26	Salary Rank:		of 26	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	5.09	5.66	19.4%	12.1%	44.9%	29.6%	16.8%
	2018	1	5.12	1.35	12.0%	8.0%	40.0%	40.0%	15.0%

This game is only included in the all-day slate on FanDuel, so if you are not playing that slate, feel free to move on to the next game. Liriano is hoping to bounce back after a really poor 2017 campaign where he had a 5.09 SIERA and a walk rate of 12%. For him to be effective, he needs to throw strikes early in the count. He relies so much on swings outside of the strike zone that he needs to get to two strikes before two balls. Until he can do that consistently, he is an easy fade for DFS. Add in a matchup against the Indians in Cleveland and we should want no part of Liriano in a small slate, let alone an all-day slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Liriano in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,000	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 26	Salary Rank:		of 26	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%
	2018	2	3.01	2.40	25.9%	5.6%	47.2%	35.1%	16.2%

I really wish this game started an hour later because I would load up on Kluber in the main slate. He is coming off of a career year in 2017 and he has picked up right where he left off. In his first two starts this season, he has a 3.01 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He gets to face a right-handed heavy Tigers’ lineup that is not afraid to strikeout at a high rate. Kluber doesn’t have as good of a track record against the Tigers as I was expecting, but that’s not going to stop me from targeting him today. He has as much upside as any pitcher on the schedule and he is a massive -245 favorite at home.

Quick Breakdown: Not many will be playing the all-day slate, but I’d rank Kluber as my top overall pitching option.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers don’t have as much talent in their lineup as they have had over the last few years. Add in the fact that they have underwhelmed offensively and they are going to be a team to pick on all season, especially with right-handed pitchers. They are an easy fade against Corey Kluber, who has an elite strikeout rate and who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.213	0.270	0.070	25.8%	7.1%	25.7%	37.5%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.322	0.315	0.132	25.7%	11.0%	19.2%	46.5%	3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.298	0.380	0.150	42.1%	9.1%	20.0%	41.1%	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.334	0.375	0.193	43.1%	6.4%	22.7%	35.5%	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.314	0.373	0.132	42.8%	8.7%	14.3%	37.7%	C	$2,400	N/A	N/A
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.277	0.301	0.112	36.9%	6.0%	25.1%	38.6%	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
7	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.327	0.301	0.153	33.7%	6.9%	21.5%	47.9%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.277	0.261	0.116	27.5%	4.4%	14.8%	52.0%	SS	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.312	0.294	0.103	35.6%	4.5%	18.2%	55.6%	2B	$2,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians should be considered one of the top offenses to target on the schedule today, but again very few will actually be playing the all-day slate. Francisco Liriano hasn’t been able to find the strike zone over the last two seasons, which has led to a high walk rate and a high ERA. During that stretch, he has allowed a .373 xwOBA, a 34% hard contact rate, and a 14% walk rate to right-handed hitters. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion all bat from the right side and all boast a .355+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.376	0.368	0.216	41.2%	8.3%	13.0%	38.7%	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.287	0.308	0.146	27.9%	9.1%	16.8%	44.7%	2B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.385	0.358	0.244	36.0%	6.3%	10.5%	40.8%	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.362	0.396	0.201	36.6%	19.6%	21.7%	43.5%	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.299	0.305	0.082	24.3%	4.6%	13.0%	51.4%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.300	0.315	0.108	21.3%	7.3%	21.2%	38.7%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A
7	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.287	0.352	0.241	36.1%	8.6%	23.7%	36.1%	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.362	0.333	0.277	39.7%	10.1%	27.1%	42.9%	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.289	0.278	0.120	21.4%	8.8%	19.7%	46.4%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			Julio Teheran							Max Scherzer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-240							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.360	35.9%	12.9%	17.3%	38.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.302	0.295	26.9%	9.0%	26.4%	32.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	0.306	25.5%	4.7%	19.5%	41.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.189	0.195	27.1%	4.6%	44.1%	41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$13,100
	Salary Rank:		24 of 26	Salary Rank:		16 of 26	Salary Rank:		12 of 26
	2017	32	4.89	4.49	18.6%	8.9%	40.0%	30.4%	21.1%
	2018	2	6.16	10.13	12.8%	15.4%	33.3%	44.4%	14.8%

Teheran has not been sharp in his first two starts of the season. As you can see in the pitching table above, he doesn’t have a single box that isn’t red when it comes to his pitching statistics. He has struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his career and now his home ballpark (SunTrust) favors left-handed power. Teheran is an easy fade tonight against the Nationals. While they may only have two lefties in their lineup, Teheran has yet to flash any form this season. He’s also a massive underdog on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Teheran in all formats. Bryce Harper may single-handedly ruin Teheran’s outing.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$12,600	Salary:		$24,700
	Salary Rank:		1 of 26	Salary Rank:		1 of 26	Salary Rank:		1 of 26
	2017	31	2.98	2.51	34.4%	7.1%	36.5%	26.5%	19.5%
	2018	2	2.37	1.64	35.4%	6.3%	32.1%	35.7%	17.9%

We have some difficult decisions to make tonight. Not only are there three elite arms on the mound, but we also have a game in Coors Field that we’d like to load up on. Scherzer is the only ace of the three that is pitching at home, which is always helpful. Even though he gave up five runs to the Braves in his last start, only two of them were earned. In his first two starts of the season, he owns a 2.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. This is a much better pitcher’s park than SunTrust and Scherzer has elite home splits in his time with the Nationals. There isn’t much separating the names at the top, but I slightly prefer Scherzer over Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is my number one pitching option tonight. The only question is whether or not we want to go the cheaper route in order to load up on Coors Field.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves knocked Max Scherzer around a bit in their last meeting, but I want no part of their offense in a ten-game slate. Just because something happened in the past doesn’t mean that it is going to happen again. We have to trust the larger sample size when it comes to data. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.329	0.291	0.113	24.0%	6.3%	13.7%	42.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600	CF	$8,000
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.312	0.314	0.164	30.1%	6.5%	16.2%	38.1%	2B	$4,000	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.429	0.434	0.296	38.9%	15.7%	16.2%	33.3%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,900
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.328	0.344	0.108	35.1%	11.3%	16.0%	46.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
5	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.563	0.425	0.381	41.2%	8.3%	20.8%	29.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,600
6	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.344	0.332	0.200	30.3%	5.9%	12.9%	36.3%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.277	0.294	0.090	27.2%	10.0%	21.4%	47.2%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
8	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.375	0.344	0.089	23.3%	12.3%	20.0%	54.8%	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.155	0.173	0.000	7.1%	1.8%	21.8%	80.6%	P	$5,600	P	$6,500	P	$13,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals made quick work of Julio Teheran in their last meeting and I’m expecting more of the same this time around. Unlike Max Scherzer, Teheran doesn’t have statistics to back him up. Through two starts, his walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate. When it comes to splits, Teheran has allowed a significantly higher xwOBA and hard contact rate to left-handed hitters than he has to right-handed hitters. Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper are both elite plays in all formats and I certainly wouldn’t talk anyone off of a full Nationals’ stack. In case you didn’t know, Harper has owned Teheran over the years, going 18-for-39 with eight home runs and three doubles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.435	0.383	0.220	37.4%	13.7%	14.5%	48.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,000	CF	$9,000
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.378	0.365	0.203	33.0%	13.0%	14.0%	34.6%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.450	0.432	0.351	35.6%	16.9%	17.2%	37.1%	OF	$5,300	OF	$5,800	RF	$10,700
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.367	0.377	0.247	39.1%	7.0%	23.5%	46.5%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,700
5	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.351	0.312	0.148	29.6%	4.7%	20.6%	62.0%	2B	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,700
6	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.354	0.327	0.191	27.9%	7.5%	18.8%	51.3%	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,300
7	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.224	0.193	0.038	11.8%	9.7%	29.0%	41.2%	C	$2,500	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
8	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.196	0.212	0.000	16.0%	6.3%	15.6%	65.9%	P	$11,100	P	$12,600	P	$24,700
9	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.324	0.291	0.208	33.6%	7.3%	32.5%	41.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Trea Turner

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Philadelphia
			Cody Reed							Ben Lively
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-125							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.256	0.283	9.1%	18.2%	31.8%	63.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.364	0.371	29.8%	8.8%	10.3%	41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.373	40.6%	26.3%	17.5%	59.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.287	31.3%	3.6%	18.7%	32.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Cody Reed
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:		26 of 26	Salary Rank:		24 of 26	Salary Rank:		20 of 26
	2017	1	6.46	5.09	21.5%	24.1%	60.5%	32.6%	16.3%

When it comes to Reed, there is really only one statistic that we need to monitor — his walk rate. When he’s throwing strikes, he can be a serviceable starter in the majors. When his command is off, he can give up a lot of runs. He has struggled with right-handed hitters throughout his career and the Phillies are projected to have at least eight of them in their lineup tonight. Philadelphia is much better offensively this season and as we know, Citizens Bank Park is a great ballpark for hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Reed is too much of a wildcard at this point.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ben Lively
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:		17 of 26	Salary Rank:		12 of 26	Salary Rank:		10 of 26
	2017	15	5.27	4.26	14.0%	6.5%	38.2%	30.2%	21.5%
	2018	1	3.79	3.18	20.0%	4.0%	23.5%	35.3%	35.3%

Lively didn’t look terrible in his first start of the season, but it’s going to take more than that to convince me to target him in DFS. He is coming off of a season where he posted a 5.27 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 14%. He is a fly-ball pitcher, which can be troublesome in this ballpark. The Reds don’t have the most potent offense in baseball, but they strikeout at a low rate and still have Joey Votto. The Phillies are small favorites, but the total is set at 9.0 runs. Both pitchers in this one are too risky, even for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Lively is a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate. That’s not a recipe for success in this ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds go from one home run-friendly ballpark to another, as they take on Ben Lively in Philadelphia. Looking at his splits from last season, Lively allowed a .371 xwOBA to left-handed hitters with a strikeout rate of only 10%. Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett all deserve consideration here. They all bat from the left side and all have a 36%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. There are better offenses to fully stack in tournaments, but the three-man stack from Cincinnati is in play against Lively.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.437	0.383	0.232	36.4%	14.3%	18.8%	52.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,800
2	Phil Gosselin	RIGHT	0.160	0.167	0.030	21.7%	2.9%	29.4%	72.7%	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,000	2B	$3,900
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.429	0.436	0.246	37.8%	18.7%	10.2%	36.5%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,200	1B	$9,000
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.380	0.347	0.248	36.4%	6.2%	20.5%	38.7%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.301	0.285	0.210	31.0%	5.1%	28.3%	31.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,300
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.333	0.339	0.138	34.7%	10.1%	16.0%	42.6%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.267	0.285	0.068	20.1%	3.3%	14.4%	43.7%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,900
8	Cody Reed	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,700	P	$9,000
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.296	0.259	0.090	15.8%	8.9%	20.1%	46.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,900

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are one of my favorites stacks on the board tonight and they should fly under the radar. Not many are willing to give Philadelphia credit for their improvements in the offense, which should lead to low ownership for the next couple of weeks. They have an exploitable matchup tonight against Cody Reed, who has allowed a .413 wOBA to right-handed hitters in 49 major league innings. Rhys Hoskins is one of the top batters of the slate and you can certainly pair him with a few of his teammates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.357	0.351	0.172	24.1%	11.2%	11.2%	60.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,200
2	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.332	0.333	0.164	29.6%	13.0%	8.8%	51.2%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
3	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.265	0.361	0.000	0.0%	16.7%	16.7%	25.0%	SS	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,300	SS	$6,700
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.404	0.437	0.400	45.5%	26.6%	20.3%	36.4%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,600	1B	$11,000
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.310	0.326	0.219	35.3%	8.2%	13.5%	46.6%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
6	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.356	0.365	0.283	38.9%	11.0%	18.1%	45.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,500
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.206	0.223	0.050	25.0%	9.1%	36.4%	58.3%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,600
8	Ben Lively	RIGHT	0.357	0.299	0.375	60.0%	0.0%	37.5%	60.0%	P	$6,200	P	$6,800	P	$13,700
9	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.196	0.259	0.038	6.3%	18.8%	31.3%	37.5%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,600

MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 9th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Kevin Kiermaier

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gomez, Matt Duffy, C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos, Mallex Smith

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Trea Turner

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Scott Kingery, Maikel Franco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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