MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 21st

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Pittsburgh
ladodgersmlb Alex Wood pittsburghmlb Gerrit Cole
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-134 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.265 18.3% 7.3% 22.3% 59.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.356 0.328 36.8% 6.4% 22.4% 40.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.254 0.276 29.4% 6.8% 27.7% 53.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.300 25.2% 6.5% 19.4% 49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood
alex-wood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $12,100 Salary: $23,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 3.48 3.73 25.9% 7.8% 53.5% 29.7% 18.8%
2017 19 3.32 2.30 26.1% 6.4% 57.0% 23.8% 20.6%
L30 5 4.63 4.40 15.9% 5.3% 43.7% 30.8% 25.0%

Wood has not been sharp over his last five starts, posting a 4.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. The ground ball rate has taken a big dip during that stretch, although his hard and soft contact rates were still very good. The question we have to ask is whether we see this form continue or whether he will go back to being one of the best pitchers in the National League. It’s certainly a fair question when you consider the fact that this season is an anomaly in Wood’s career. While the jury is still out, he’s a tough fade tonight in a slack that lacks pitching depth. The Pirates may not have a high strikeout rate, but they are ranked 18th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Wood is viable in all formats, but the recent decline in strikeouts is concerning if you want to consider fading him in tournaments.

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 21 4.24 3.88 19.4% 7.1% 45.6% 30.1% 21.3%
2017 25 4.04 4.04 21.9% 5.9% 45.5% 30.8% 24.3%
L30 5 4.16 3.55 23.9% 8.0% 38.0% 23.9% 27.2%

Cole has pitched better than Alex Wood over the last month of play, posting a 4.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He has really done a nice job of inducing soft and medium contact this season and historically, he has always pitched well at home. While I’m not going to automatically rule him out in a matchup against the Dodgers, this is far from an ideal spot for Cole. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. The good news is that Wood will have much higher ownership, which makes Cole a great leverage play off of him in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many lefties in the Dodgers’ lineup to look Cole’s way in cash games, but he’s one of the more intriguing GPP options in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but they draw a difficult matchup against Gerrit Cole and they are facing him in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. The right-handed batters in this lineup are a tough sell, as Cole has held righties to a .300 xwOBA on a 50% ground ball rate since the beginning of last season. He has struggled a bit with lefties though, allowing a .328 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate. I’m not going to have a ton of exposure to the Dodgers’ offense, but Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal, and newly-acquired Curtis Granderson are all viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.397 0.350 0.248 36.8% 9.9% 26.2% 40.4% OF $3,900 2B/OF $4,600 2B $8,800
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.371 0.395 0.191 47.6% 14.0% 21.3% 41.5% SS $3,700 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.369 0.382 0.146 34.9% 10.9% 10.1% 29.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
4 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.354 0.348 0.270 34.8% 14.7% 22.1% 29.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
5 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.343 0.296 0.234 36.7% 6.7% 26.3% 40.5% C $3,400 C $3,800 C $7,500
6 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.283 0.307 0.104 33.9% 6.7% 16.0% 34.8% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.266 0.293 0.041 29.8% 14.1% 26.7% 47.9% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,900
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.369 0.354 0.257 36.1% 9.6% 19.9% 46.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
9 Alex Wood LEFT 0.060 0.095 0.000 7.1% 3.6% 46.4% 88.9% P $9,700 P $12,100 P $23,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Curtis Granderson, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

In his last start against the Pirates, Alex Wood struck out 11 batters in five shutout innings of work. He was in better form back then, but the Pirates really struggled to get anything going against him. In addition to his elite ground ball and strikeout rates, Wood has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate since the start of last season. The one and only hitter to consider here is Andrew McCutchen, who owns a .433 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.196 0.247 0.043 25.7% 6.0% 24.0% 47.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.356 0.303 0.163 29.6% 8.0% 15.0% 41.8% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,600
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.495 0.433 0.446 45.5% 17.9% 13.4% 31.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.390 0.388 0.154 39.7% 17.5% 21.6% 56.9% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.343 0.297 0.198 30.0% 6.9% 12.6% 51.4% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
6 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.320 0.315 0.022 17.1% 5.8% 13.5% 53.8% OF $3,500 2B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.282 0.297 0.158 39.0% 10.3% 17.8% 51.3% SS $2,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
8 Chris Stewart RIGHT 0.136 0.212 0.091 26.3% 4.3% 13.0% 63.2% C $2,100 C $2,000 C $3,900
9 Gerrit Cole RIGHT 0.146 0.258 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 75.0% P $9,300 P $8,700 P $16,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – RED


Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Oakland Baltimore
oaklandmlb Chris Smith baltimoremlb Wade Miley
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-160 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.375 42.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.318 35.2% 10.0% 20.3% 57.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.309 33.9% 6.0% 21.2% 44.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.364 0.357 32.9% 9.2% 19.0% 47.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Smith
chris-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.66 2.92 29.0% 13.0% 45.6% 25.9% 17.2%
2017 6 5.45 5.26 13.1% 7.7% 37.4% 36.4% 15.9%
L30 4 5.86 6.49 12.0% 8.6% 31.9% 39.1% 15.2%

With only eight games on the schedule, we don’t have as many games to choose from as usual. This cuts down the player pool and makes us focus on the few games that could potentially shootout. Tonight’s A’s and Orioles’ game has that upside we are looking for, as two very hittable pitchers will be on the mound. In six starts this season, Smith owns a 5.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13% and a hard contact rate of 36%. He has been better against right-handed hitters than he has been against left-handed hitters, but is still an easy fade on the road in a hitter-friendly environment.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Smith in all formats. On a side note, how many Chris Smiths do you think there are in the world?

Wade Miley
wade-miley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 25 5.00 5.21 19.3% 12.4% 51.2% 33.3% 16.5%
L30 5 4.67 3.90 21.0% 10.9% 47.4% 35.4% 10.1%

Miley has been an insta-fade for me all season thanks to his high walk (12%) and hard contact rates (33%). The strikeout rate hasn’t been high enough to make up for the mistakes that he consistently makes against right-handed hitters. Now, with all of that said, we have a pitcher that is cheap, a large favorite at home, and facing a high-strikeout offense. On the season, the A’s are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I still prefer the A’s offense in this matchup, but I wouldn’t rule out using Miley as a deep GPP flier.

Quick Breakdown: Miley is cheap and he has decent strikeout upside in this matchup. At worst, he’s a deep GPP flier in tonight’s short slate.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s have struggled against southpaws all season, but they draw a favorable matchup against Wade Miley and they see a ballpark upgrade playing in Camden Yards. Since the start of last season, Miley has allowed a .357 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. This isn’t a terrible spot to stack Oakland, as they are facing a high walk pitcher that can give up runs quickly. As for individual plays, Khris Davis is one of my favorite targets in the entire slate. Despite a .378 xwOBA and a 55% hard contact rate against southpaws this season, his wOBA is sitting at a paltry .293 thanks to some bad BABIP luck. His peripheral numbers suggest some major positive regression moving forward.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.299 0.308 0.113 30.0% 11.5% 21.3% 56.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.318 0.301 0.115 43.6% 13.3% 21.7% 43.6% SS $3,300 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.299 0.319 0.106 29.3% 11.2% 18.7% 44.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.293 0.378 0.180 55.4% 15.0% 32.7% 41.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.416 0.358 0.286 32.9% 3.0% 18.8% 35.4% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,600
6 Matt Olson LEFT 0.197 0.254 0.176 44.4% 5.6% 44.4% 66.7% 1B $2,400 1B/OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.271 0.324 0.178 33.3% 8.0% 38.0% 11.1% 3B $2,900 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
8 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.188 0.275 0.000 23.5% 12.0% 20.0% 64.7% C $2,000 C $2,200 C $4,200
9 Boog Powell LEFT 0.262 0.363 0.000 20.0% 16.7% 0.0% 60.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,600

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Ryon Healy, Matt Chapman

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Even though Chris Smith has been significantly worse against lefties (.375 xwOBA) than he has been against righties (.309 xwOBA), we shouldn’t shy away from the likes of Tim Beckham, Adam Jones, and Manny Machado. Smith is a low-strikeout pitcher and the Orioles get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Baltimore has the highest implied run total in the slate and it’s not particularly close. An Orioles’ stack is firmly in play in tournaments and we can look to the one through five hitters as viable targets in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.353 0.320 0.197 43.4% 5.3% 29.7% 47.2% SS $3,400 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.332 0.360 0.217 37.2% 7.9% 16.5% 42.2% 3B $4,100 3B $5,600 3B $10,800
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.360 0.311 0.211 32.0% 4.5% 20.3% 41.5% 2B $3,300 2B $4,600 2B $9,000
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.333 0.309 0.188 31.1% 3.5% 17.5% 45.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.384 0.349 0.268 34.7% 6.6% 23.4% 53.1% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.301 0.315 0.173 31.2% 8.1% 23.7% 42.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.325 0.333 0.243 43.5% 12.7% 34.9% 33.1% 1B $3,200 1B $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
8 Seth Smith LEFT 0.348 0.359 0.192 37.4% 9.7% 20.0% 41.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
9 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.327 0.322 0.195 35.5% 6.4% 25.6% 42.0% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,800

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Adam Jones

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Welington Castillo

Stackability – GREEN


Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Arizona NY Mets
arizonamlb Taijuan Walker nymetsmlb Robert Gsellman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.320 30.6% 9.2% 21.9% 41.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.326 36.7% 9.6% 21.3% 48.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.320 31.1% 5.5% 19.5% 48.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.324 28.8% 6.4% 15.3% 54.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Taijuan Walker
taijuan-walker-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.13 4.22 20.8% 6.5% 44.1% 28.6% 20.8%
2017 20 4.45 3.83 20.5% 8.2% 47.0% 33.4% 14.9%
L30 5 4.24 4.55 22.3% 7.4% 43.9% 32.9% 14.6%

Walker doesn’t have numbers that are going to turn heads, but he’s been a very nice pitcher for the Diamondbacks this season. In 20 starts, he owns a 3.83 ERA (4.45 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 21%. He has cut down the number of home runs that he has given up and he actually has the highest ground ball rate of any season in his career. With the Mets trading away pieces, they could end up being one of the better teams to target pitchers against down the stretch. Walker sees a ballpark bump playing in Citi Field and eight of the projected starters for the Mets have at least a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Even though this game has a high total, Walker makes a lot of sense in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash games.

Robert Gsellman
robert-gsellman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 7 3.76 2.42 22.7% 8.1% 54.2% 28.4% 18.1%
2017 15 4.76 5.98 15.6% 7.7% 51.4% 33.7% 20.0%
L30 1 7.04 3.38 8.7% 13.0% 27.8% 33.3% 16.7%

Gsellman offered great value in his spot starts last season, but times have changed. In his 15 starts this season, he has a 4.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He is still inducing ground balls at a high rate, but that doesn’t help your cause much if you aren’t striking anyone out. The Diamondbacks haven’t been great on the road this season, but still have plenty of firepower in their lineup. Given the absence of upside, Gsellman is an easy pass in tonight’s eight-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gsellman in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly of environments, but they are favored and have a fairly high implied run total. Robert Gsellman has neutral splits, allowing a .326 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 xwOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons combined. It’s worth noting, that most of his hard contact allowed has been against lefties. The Diamondbacks are an interesting offense tonight and one that will likely get overlooked with the exception of Jake Lamb, who continues to mash against right-handed pitching (.381 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.365 0.319 0.180 35.6% 7.1% 14.7% 53.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 RF $9,300
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.328 0.311 0.153 38.9% 6.8% 20.8% 44.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.404 0.381 0.285 37.0% 14.2% 21.5% 39.4% 3B $3,500 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.430 0.399 0.291 43.3% 14.4% 23.1% 45.7% 1B $4,000 1B $5,600 1B $10,800
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.357 0.375 0.281 41.9% 11.5% 26.4% 42.5% OF $3,600 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.335 0.322 0.171 41.2% 11.8% 22.7% 37.3% 2B $2,300 2B/OF $3,300 2B $6,400
7 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.328 0.317 0.169 24.6% 8.6% 20.4% 36.5% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
8 Chris Herrmann LEFT 0.273 0.310 0.174 38.2% 13.3% 27.7% 48.0% C $2,000 C/OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,800
9 Taijuan Walker RIGHT 0.240 0.238 0.094 13.0% 2.9% 29.4% 68.2% P $7,100 P $7,800 P $15,000

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

The Mets are an absolute mess right now. It’s hard to believe they went from contending last year (with a ton of young talent) to selling pieces at the trade deadline this season. You could fade the Mets the rest of the season in DFS and it would likely end up helping you more often than it would hurt you. Tonight’s matchup against Taijuan Walker isn’t the worst on the board, but it’s not that attractive either. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters to a .320 xwOBA and a 31% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.310 0.338 0.029 39.1% 15.0% 27.5% 34.8% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.299 0.336 0.151 36.3% 9.6% 15.7% 42.3% 3B $2,600 2B/SS $3,000 SS $6,000
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.355 0.334 0.220 40.7% 6.3% 17.6% 37.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.412 0.389 0.288 39.9% 14.6% 22.0% 37.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
5 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.339 0.329 0.195 34.9% 7.0% 14.6% 36.7% 2B $3,400 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.269 0.298 0.231 27.3% 3.7% 14.8% 59.1% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.263 0.220 0.163 25.0% 0.0% 34.0% 53.1% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.248 0.286 0.150 34.2% 3.9% 16.7% 40.4% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Robert Gsellman RIGHT 0.224 0.239 0.000 18.2% 13.0% 39.1% 50.0% P $6,300 P $5,400 P $10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE


Boston at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Cleveland
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.306 25.7% 9.1% 25.0% 36.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.321 31.5% 11.6% 23.6% 37.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.308 30.2% 8.8% 23.4% 30.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.321 35.8% 13.2% 25.8% 39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.44 4.71 21.8% 8.7% 31.6% 27.6% 22.2%
2017 16 4.09 3.97 26.0% 8.9% 32.4% 31.4% 17.5%
L30 5 4.33 4.73 24.2% 8.3% 26.6% 37.5% 18.8%

Rodriguez is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that relies on a high strikeout rate and a low hard contact rate. In 16 starts this season, he owns a 4.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. Those numbers aren’t bad at all, especially considering his division (AL East) and his home ballpark (Fenway). The issue tonight is his matchup against the Indians, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA and third in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Rodriguez comes into the game as an underdog on the road and is an easy fade in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: One of E-Rod’s biggest weapons (high strikeout rate) will be negated in a matchup against the Indians.

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 5.26 21.5% 12.5% 38.2% 31.2% 18.2%
2017 15 4.35 3.75 27.1% 12.6% 39.4% 35.9% 14.8%
L30 3 4.48 7.50 25.3% 12.6% 40.7% 48.2% 14.8%

Clevinger has a high walk rate (13%) and typically doesn’t pitch deep into games (rarely lasts more than six innings). While that isn’t ideal, his 27% strikeout rate certainly makes up for a lot of it. He comes into tonight’s start as a small favorite against the Red Sox, who have struggled as a whole against right-handed pitching this season (20th in team wOBA). Boston is a patient team at the plate though, and they have the fourth lowest k-rate in baseball. If they can draw some walks against Clevinger, he may struggle to pitch five innings in this one, which is my main concern.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Clevinger over Rodriguez in this matchup, but plan to have little exposure to both pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are underdogs tonight on the road, but this game has a sneaky total of 9.5 runs. Most of the attention in this game is going to the two starting pitchers, but the better play might be the two offenses. They should both carry low ownership, even though this game clearly has shootout potential. Since the start of last season, Mike Clevinger has allowed a .320+ xwOBA and a 12%+ walk rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Red Sox don’t hit enough home runs for my liking, but Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, and Rafael Devers are all viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.349 0.271 0.133 25.7% 2.8% 10.7% 54.1% 2B $3,000 3B/OF $4,600 3B $9,000
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.353 0.347 0.189 38.2% 10.3% 16.0% 37.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.333 0.325 0.190 35.5% 9.2% 11.5% 40.1% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.328 0.358 0.169 34.6% 8.7% 18.7% 41.6% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.460 0.380 0.389 41.9% 11.5% 18.0% 48.8% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.318 0.266 0.136 31.1% 7.0% 18.8% 47.9% SS $3,000 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.329 0.379 0.190 41.6% 10.7% 22.7% 39.3% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.307 0.268 0.087 27.2% 5.3% 18.2% 48.1% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.302 0.326 0.160 37.6% 9.3% 24.3% 40.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Even though Eduardo Rodriguez is a fly-ball pitcher that plays in a difficult division, he has managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate since the start of last season. From a splits perspective, there isn’t a lot that stands out in this matchup. However, that’s only half of the equation. Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, and Austin Jackson all boast a .355+ xwOBA and a 36%+ hard contact rate against left-handed pitching this season. It’s also worth noting that the Indians have the third highest implied total in the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.375 0.357 0.205 42.2% 7.5% 13.4% 39.9% SS $3,500 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.283 0.285 0.160 25.6% 8.3% 16.5% 47.2% 2B $3,400 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.353 0.335 0.196 31.7% 7.3% 12.4% 41.8% 3B $3,400 2B/3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,300
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.366 0.381 0.192 35.9% 19.6% 23.2% 45.7% 1B $3,800 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.320 0.309 0.242 40.2% 6.8% 24.1% 29.7% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.324 0.339 0.181 33.1% 12.1% 9.5% 52.0% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.441 0.388 0.269 35.5% 14.3% 17.6% 40.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.281 0.289 0.141 21.0% 6.3% 25.3% 31.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.254 0.283 0.122 30.3% 16.4% 29.5% 50.0% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Austin Jackson

Stackability – YELLOW


Seattle at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Seattle Atlanta
seattlemlb Andrew Albers atlantamlb Mike Foltynewicz
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-101 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.199 36.4% 0.0% 42.1% 72.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.331 34.1% 9.4% 20.5% 32.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.470 0.397 40.3% 8.1% 14.0% 40.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.305 25.4% 6.1% 21.7% 47.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Albers
andrew-albers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.03 5.82 18.8% 7.1% 47.6% 41.3% 15.9%
2017 1 4.27 1.80 20.0% 5.0% 33.3% 33.3% 13.3%
L30 1 4.27 1.80 20.0% 5.0% 33.3% 33.3% 13.3%

Albers is making only his second start of the season tonight, as the Mariners square off against the Braves in Atlanta. In 26 Triple-A appearances this year, Albers posted a 2.57 FIP with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 4%. I always like to see pitchers that have good command because you certainly need it at the major league level. While SunTrust Park favors left-handed pitchers, his matchup against the Braves isn’t as favorable as you might think. On the season, Atlanta is ranked ninth in team wOBA and sixth in strikeout rate against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: I like to take a wait and see approach with most little known pitchers and that’s exactly what I will be doing with Albers tonight.

Mike Foltynewicz
michael-foltynewicz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.13 4.31 21.1% 6.7% 41.2% 29.8% 20.4%
2017 23 4.52 4.75 21.1% 8.6% 39.2% 29.1% 13.9%
L30 5 4.37 8.87 25.0% 11.2% 43.5% 34.3% 5.7%

Foltynewicz has an ERA close to 9.00 in his last five starts, but his peripherals during that stretch are pretty close to his season long averages. The best time to target Foltynewicz in DFS is when he is facing a right-handed heavy lineup. The Mariners don’t exactly fit the bill, as they currently have six lefties in their projected lineup for tonight’s game. Seattle also has a below-average strikeout rate and as I mentioned earlier, this is a ballpark that favors left-handed pitching, not righties.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz isn’t the worst play on the board, but I will be looking elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The left-handed hitters in this lineup get a double boost tonight against the Braves. SunTrust Park is great for left-handed power and Mike Foltynewicz has struggled against lefties throughout his career. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .331 xwOBA with a 34% hard contact rate. His ground ball rate also dips 15% when he’s facing a batter from the left side of the plate. Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager all hit from the left side and all three boast a .370+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.345 0.295 0.127 25.1% 4.3% 16.2% 54.9% SS $3,500 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
2 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.382 0.387 0.249 34.1% 13.8% 22.4% 32.3% 1B $3,300 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.362 0.387 0.213 38.2% 9.2% 10.1% 50.4% 2B $4,000 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
4 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.318 0.373 0.183 39.9% 8.8% 16.0% 32.5% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.298 0.279 0.137 26.5% 5.6% 25.1% 47.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.332 0.302 0.116 27.4% 8.9% 21.3% 44.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
7 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.296 0.254 0.089 15.3% 5.7% 13.7% 51.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.330 0.314 0.258 38.0% 7.7% 37.5% 31.0% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,400
9 Andrew Albers LEFT P $5,500 P $6,000 P $12,000

Elite Plays – Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Kyle Seager (FD), Ben Gamel

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

Trying to predict how a young pitcher will fare in his second start of the season is always a difficult proposition because his range of outcomes is wider than most. He has some good numbers in the minors this season, but he’s pitching on the road in a game that has a total of 9.5 runs. Rather than focusing on Andrew Albers splits (sample size is too small), I will be looking at the Braves’ hitters with good numbers against southpaws. Ozzie Albies, Matt Kemp, and Kurt Suzuki all own a .379+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.445 0.441 0.600 40.0% 16.7% 0.0% 40.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.318 0.330 0.093 26.0% 4.3% 11.7% 47.4% 2B $3,100 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.357 0.353 0.247 35.9% 9.2% 27.6% 34.0% 1B $4,100 1B/3B $5,300 1B $10,200
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.268 0.379 0.103 32.7% 13.9% 16.5% 58.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.300 0.295 0.112 28.6% 7.6% 14.3% 54.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.514 0.433 0.514 50.0% 10.0% 7.5% 28.1% C $3,100 C $3,200 C $6,400
7 Lane Adams RIGHT 0.255 0.207 0.000 12.5% 18.8% 31.3% 28.6% OF $2,000 OF $2,100 LF $4,000
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.323 0.302 0.176 34.0% 10.5% 19.7% 42.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.000 0.043 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% P $7,700 P $7,000 P $13,800

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Matt Kemp, Kurt Suzuki

Secondary Plays – Brandon Phillips, Freddie Freeman, Lane Adams

Stackability – YELLOW


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious