MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-04 02:43:13

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Milwaukee
			Wade Miley							Brent Suter
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-103							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.316	35.6%	9.8%	20.7%	55.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.304	41.3%	5.1%	13.6%	43.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.360	0.349	32.8%	8.6%	19.2%	47.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	0.288	23.9%	8.2%	19.4%	45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wade Miley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 20	Salary Rank:		15 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	30	4.21	5.37	19.3%	6.9%	47.3%	33.3%	17.3%
	2017	16	4.87	4.54	20.0%	12.4%	53.0%	33.2%	19.6%

Tonight’s main slate features eight games, but we have two early games on the schedule as well. After a nice start to the season, Miley has come crashing back down to earth. Turns out it’s hard to sustain an ERA under 3.00 with a 12% walk rate and a 33% hard contact rate. If you are playing in the all-day slate, there are better pitching options and if you are playing in the early-only slate, you are better off targeting a pitcher from the Mets/Nationals game.

Quick Breakdown: Miley is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brent Suter
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 20	Salary Rank:		20 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	2	4.33	3.32	16.5%	5.5%	43.3%	34.3%	22.9%
	2017	1	4.55	4.20	18.2%	9.1%	46.8%	25.5%	19.2%

Suter is making his fourth career major league start today against the Nationals. He hasn’t shown much strikeout upside in the minors and that’s unlikely to change in the majors. The Orioles may not hit left-handed pitching well, but Suter is facing them at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. The game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.5 runs. The risk outweighs the potential reward here.

Quick Breakdown: Suter is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

When young pitchers make their first few starts in the majors, anything can happen. The range of outcomes is extremely broad. Brent Suter hasn’t shown much in terms of upside and he’s had a mediocre FIP/SIERA throughout his time in the minors. Seeing as how Suter is a left-handed pitcher, we should give the edge to the right-handed hitters in this lineup. Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, and Welington Castillo all bat from the right side and all hit lefties well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.339	0.305	0.151	31.5%	6.7%	18.2%	37.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.370	0.393	0.214	41.8%	9.2%	15.8%	41.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.325	0.296	0.204	26.6%	5.8%	23.9%	47.9%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.260	0.274	0.096	29.6%	6.1%	21.5%	38.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.271	0.286	0.176	35.2%	6.1%	25.3%	43.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.363	0.396	0.280	42.4%	4.1%	27.8%	47.0%	1B	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.357	0.370	0.204	52.1%	8.0%	24.4%	39.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Ruben Tejada	RIGHT	0.304	0.286	0.114	31.7%	9.6%	11.5%	41.5%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Wade Miley	LEFT								P	$7,000	P	$6,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw one of my favorite matchups in all of fantasy baseball. Wade Miley strikeout rate and ground ball rate are both up this season, but he still walks a bunch of batters and gives up a lot of hard contact. Over the last two seasons, he has a .349 xwOBA with a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. A Brewers’ stack is viable in both the early and the all-day slates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.370	0.338	0.231	40.2%	13.9%	36.7%	43.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.379	0.384	0.238	41.1%	12.9%	24.1%	45.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.413	0.407	0.252	40.8%	11.4%	13.7%	50.8%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.282	0.259	0.199	29.1%	5.3%	26.3%	42.1%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.316	0.272	0.182	35.0%	4.1%	22.2%	38.8%	OF	$3,100	3B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.406	0.341	0.226	48.7%	8.6%	27.6%	51.4%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.326	0.336	0.081	41.7%	7.2%	18.1%	40.0%	C	$2,700	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.322	0.263	0.140	30.2%	10.8%	17.5%	46.9%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Brent Suter	LEFT								P	$5,500	P	$4,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Keon Broxton, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar, Manny Pina

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Washington – 6:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Washington
			Steven Matz							Stephen Strasburg
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-170							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.256	20.3%	5.6%	18.8%	66.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.269	0.264	24.8%	8.1%	30.9%	45.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.289	34.0%	5.9%	23.6%	45.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.296	29.6%	6.0%	28.9%	38.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Steven Matz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	22	3.51	3.40	23.6%	5.7%	51.1%	30.4%	21.7%
	2017	4	4.60	2.67	16.7%	6.5%	51.2%	31.3%	18.1%

Matz is a talented young lefty, but he’s shown some rust in his first four starts of the season. If you look at the table above, you can see that he had much better success in 2016. It’s only a matter of time before we start to see improvements, but I’m not willing to take any chances in a matchup against the Nationals. On the season, Washington is ranked seventh in team wOBA against southpaws. Not only is the matchup less than ideal, but run support might be limited with Stephen Strasburg pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Matz might be the second best option in the two early games, but he’s an easy fade in all-day contests.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$12,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 20	Salary Rank:		1 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	24	3.18	3.60	30.6%	7.4%	39.5%	26.6%	21.4%
	2017	16	3.37	3.51	28.8%	6.6%	44.9%	28.3%	20.5%

Strasburg has more blowup potential than most elite pitchers in baseball, but we know it comes with upside as well. On the season, he owns a 3.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He has good command, his ground ball rate is up, and he limits hard contact against him. One of the main reasons to play the all-day slate is to get exposure to Strasburg. As you will see, the pitching options in the evening slate are less than appealing, to say the least. Strasburg is the clear number one option on the schedule today.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is an elite play in all formats, even against all of the lefties in the Mets’ lineup.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets draw the worst matchup in the slate and with it, they are an easy fade in all formats. Over the last two seasons, Stephen Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.323	0.331	0.069	32.7%	8.8%	25.0%	36.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.342	0.330	0.203	35.4%	7.6%	17.3%	38.7%	2B	$3,000	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.354	0.353	0.235	38.6%	7.6%	19.6%	35.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.373	0.366	0.292	41.7%	9.4%	21.0%	35.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.369	0.390	0.259	41.4%	12.4%	21.9%	31.0%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
6	T.J. Rivera	RIGHT	0.366	0.304	0.174	29.0%	3.5%	10.4%	38.1%	3B	$2,100	1B/3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.274	0.269	0.129	26.1%	7.7%	16.1%	37.4%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.281	0.297	0.131	33.0%	5.9%	16.7%	47.3%	C	$2,600	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.127	0.227	0.000	15.4%	2.7%	24.3%	45.5%	P	$8,500	P	$8,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. Their matchup against Steven Matz doesn’t look great on paper, but they have a high implied run total. If you are playing in the all-day slate, the batters in this lineup are closer to secondary plays than elite plays, but if you are playing in the early-only slate, you can look to them in all formats. The right-handed bats of Michael Taylor, Ryan Raburn, Ryan Zimmerman, and Anthony Rendon are all viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.346	0.316	0.192	35.0%	6.0%	33.8%	49.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.327	0.288	0.200	34.9%	12.7%	25.4%	48.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.332	0.306	0.191	31.1%	11.5%	28.6%	46.3%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.346	0.385	0.268	40.3%	8.8%	13.8%	52.4%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.381	0.370	0.218	33.3%	5.8%	12.9%	36.0%	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.410	0.381	0.236	37.4%	17.2%	14.4%	32.5%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.302	0.336	0.150	30.6%	8.5%	20.9%	38.9%	C	$2,400	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.257	0.293	0.176	28.6%	2.9%	17.1%	70.4%	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.242	0.211	0.000	20.0%	4.3%	30.4%	69.2%	P	$10,800	P	$12,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Michael Taylor, Ryan Raburn, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								NY Yankees
			Marcus Stroman							Masahiro Tanaka
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-125							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.307	33.1%	7.0%	19.6%	61.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.307	32.2%	4.3%	20.8%	51.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.309	29.5%	5.4%	20.0%	59.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.311	32.9%	5.8%	21.7%	45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marcus Stroman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$21,300
	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		1 of 20
	2016	32	3.62	4.37	19.4%	6.3%	60.1%	31.8%	18.3%
	2017	16	3.63	3.41	20.5%	5.9%	60.8%	30.2%	21.8%

Stroman can pitch well anywhere thanks to an elite ground ball rate and an average strikeout rate. On the season, he owns a 3.63 SIERA with good command and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. He might be listed as an underdog tonight and he might be pitching in a bad ballpark, but at least he is catching the Yankees at an opportune time. Their lineup is currently plagued with injuries, which has forced New York to make quite a few call ups.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is still risky, but given the injuries to the Yankees’ lineup, he’s worth a flier in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$19,200
	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20
	2016	31	3.79	3.07	20.5%	4.5%	48.2%	32.5%	18.5%
	2017	16	3.90	5.56	22.7%	6.3%	49.3%	32.9%	18.1%

Tanaka is one of the best pitching options in the slate. He’s had a roller coaster of a season, but his advanced statistics look good. In 16 starts, he owns a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He is also inducing a career-high swinging strike rate of 14%. The Blue Jays have a lot of firepower in their lineup, but Tanaka has owned their hitters in the past. Their current roster has a .233 wOBA with 36 strikeouts in 156 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The two issues that Masahiro Tanaka has struggled with this season are hard contact and home runs. He should see some positive regression in terms of his HR/FB% and we’ve seen the Blue Jays struggle against him in the past. The only hitter with a good track record against Tanaka is Steve Pearce and he’ll likely be batting eighth or ninth tonight. It sounds strange, but I plan to take a hard pass on the Blue Jays’ hitters tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.358	0.362	0.214	38.0%	15.8%	21.6%	36.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
2	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.331	0.327	0.167	30.4%	12.8%	25.9%	49.0%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.394	0.394	0.265	40.2%	14.3%	19.2%	39.9%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,700
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.348	0.370	0.244	40.4%	11.3%	29.7%	30.2%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.313	0.385	0.194	40.7%	8.1%	20.4%	48.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.322	0.344	0.184	33.3%	7.4%	17.2%	41.3%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.283	0.294	0.111	26.7%	5.1%	15.7%	47.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
8	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.340	0.342	0.160	30.9%	8.7%	17.8%	45.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	1B	$6,800
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.265	0.272	0.146	30.3%	7.1%	21.4%	47.3%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees are missing some of their best hitters right now and draw a tough matchup against Marcus Stroman. In addition to the elite ground ball rate, Stroman has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. The one hitter with a good track record against Stroman is Brett Gardner, who is 8-for-27 with three extra-base hits.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.347	0.327	0.153	30.9%	12.1%	17.1%	47.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,000
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.331	0.317	0.133	26.4%	9.8%	12.3%	48.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.420	0.414	0.323	49.2%	13.5%	32.6%	37.6%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.427	0.386	0.304	38.8%	8.6%	22.6%	48.2%	C	$3,800	C	$4,700	C	$9,300
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.318	0.263	0.189	24.7%	2.9%	15.1%	41.6%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,800
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.328	0.325	0.149	31.3%	12.1%	25.0%	44.1%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
7	Tyler Wade	LEFT	0.318	0.368	0.111	40.0%	18.2%	36.4%	20.0%	OF	$2,200	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800
8	Clint Frazier	RIGHT	0.411	0.256	0.333	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,400
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.268	0.290	0.086	22.1%	4.8%	21.2%	42.8%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,200

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Philadelphia
			Ivan Nova							Aaron Nola
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-110							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.363	35.7%	3.6%	12.0%	46.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	0.310	29.9%	9.8%	21.5%	52.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.288	31.3%	3.8%	20.6%	56.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	0.271	27.2%	4.0%	27.2%	54.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ivan Nova
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20
	2016	26	3.76	4.17	18.6%	4.1%	53.6%	34.4%	18.5%
	2017	16	4.48	3.08	13.8%	3.0%	48.3%	31.9%	18.5%

Nova can be very playable at times and very unplayable at other times. The best time to target him in DFS is when he is pitching at home against a right-handed heavy lineup. Nova has an elite ground ball rate, but his struggles against left-handed hitters are well documented. The Phillies may not have a lineup loaded with lefties, but they should have at least five in their lineup tonight. When you add in the fact that he is facing them in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Nova becomes a pretty easy fade, especially since his opponent is one of the best pitching options on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Nova can be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Nola
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20
	2016	20	3.29	4.78	25.1%	6.0%	55.2%	28.8%	23.2%
	2017	11	4.00	4.13	23.5%	8.1%	49.5%	28.1%	23.8%

If you look at our consensus value rankings (available to premium members), a lot of our experts have Nola ranked as the top pitching option in the slate. He’s affordable and he has all of the tools that we are looking for in a pitcher. In 11 starts this season, he owns a 4.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 50%. He does a nice job of inducing a lot of soft and medium contact, which helps him pitch well in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates may see a positive ballpark shift playing in Citizens Bank Park, but they draw one of the worst matchups in the slate. Aaron Nola has a high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate, which really limits the upside that an opposing offense has. Nola has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, so if you are targeting any hitters, look for home run upside in a one-off target.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.324	0.331	0.126	31.5%	8.9%	14.3%	45.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.311	0.292	0.110	28.2%	4.4%	15.0%	42.6%	2B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.333	0.342	0.170	34.9%	9.9%	20.5%	37.1%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,200
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.353	0.197	33.2%	12.4%	17.1%	51.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.316	0.323	0.127	31.4%	9.3%	26.1%	58.6%	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,700
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.325	0.337	0.190	32.9%	8.9%	16.6%	39.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.308	0.297	0.119	25.7%	8.4%	14.7%	49.1%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.249	0.276	0.072	23.6%	8.5%	14.1%	42.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,000	C	$3,900
9	Ivan Nova	RIGHT	0.063	0.055	0.000	5.6%	0.0%	62.5%	54.5%	P	$8,300	P	$8,600	P	$16,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

When it comes to Ivan Nova, the breakdown is simple: target the lefties and avoid the righties. In the last two seasons, Nova has allowed a .363 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, while holding right-handed hitters to a .288 xwOBA with a 31% hard contact rate. We may not have a ton of confidence in the lefties in this lineup, but Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams, and Andrew Knapp are all viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.331	0.307	0.151	29.6%	8.2%	21.1%	43.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,700	IF/OF	$5,400
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.301	0.276	0.170	28.4%	5.7%	21.0%	40.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.314	0.297	0.149	33.8%	8.9%	31.0%	45.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.324	0.325	0.209	38.6%	5.5%	22.9%	42.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,600
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.396	0.380	0.000	60.0%	12.5%	12.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.285	0.315	0.142	28.2%	6.6%	16.2%	46.4%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
7	Andrew Knapp	SWITCH	0.362	0.338	0.181	38.6%	13.4%	27.8%	59.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
8	Ty Kelly	SWITCH	0.277	0.286	0.153	28.8%	9.6%	19.3%	41.4%	2B	$2,200	3B/OF	$2,300	IF/OF	$4,400
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.113	0.146	0.027	5.3%	9.3%	44.2%	76.5%	P	$8,300	P	$8,800	P	$17,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								St. Louis
			Jeff Locke							Adam Wainwright
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-140							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.305	21.9%	6.8%	13.1%	49.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.339	33.3%	8.7%	18.1%	43.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	0.350	34.2%	8.4%	14.3%	47.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.318	29.1%	6.4%	20.0%	46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeff Locke
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20
	2016	19	5.06	5.44	12.9%	7.8%	47.2%	30.7%	16.0%
	2017	6	4.66	5.52	18.6%	8.5%	50.0%	30.9%	14.9%

Locke has not pitched well this season. In six starts, he has a 4.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 19%. He doesn’t have great command and he really struggles against right-handed hitters. The Cardinals may not be the best offense in baseball, but they are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws. As an underdog on the road, Locke is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Fade, fade, fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Adam Wainwright
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:		9 of 20	Salary Rank:		7 of 20	Salary Rank:		5 of 20
	2016	33	4.31	4.62	19.0%	7.0%	43.8%	31.2%	19.1%
	2017	16	4.46	5.17	19.4%	8.4%	48.3%	30.6%	21.4%

Do you remember the Wainwright flowchart?

Is he pitching at home? Yes.

Is he facing a right-handed heavy lineup? Sort of.

The Marlins have three left-handed hitters that Wainwright will need to worry about – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Justin Bour. If he can pitch around those three, he could be in for another solid outing at home. He is listed as a sizable favorite and he should have plenty of run support with Jeff Locke pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Wainwright isn’t the safest cash game target, but he’s viable in tournaments, especially at what is expected to be low ownership.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins draw a mediocre matchup against Adam Wainwright. As mentioned above, Wainwright’s biggest struggles are on the road and against left-handed hitters. Wainwright may be pitching at home, but he’ll still have to face a few lefties. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Justin Bour are all viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.300	0.250	0.076	18.4%	5.5%	14.7%	57.1%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.341	0.338	0.239	37.0%	9.3%	28.5%	40.7%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.368	0.381	0.180	39.8%	12.3%	19.7%	54.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.342	0.339	0.197	37.4%	7.6%	20.0%	46.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.358	0.388	0.230	40.1%	11.5%	17.9%	43.7%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
6	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.305	0.304	0.109	25.4%	5.6%	10.9%	49.0%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.334	0.310	0.122	30.8%	5.5%	16.9%	50.0%	C	$2,800	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.279	0.286	0.151	40.8%	5.1%	20.3%	49.0%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,200
9	Jeff Locke	LEFT	0.104	0.070	0.000	0.0%	2.6%	47.4%	92.3%	P	$5,900	P	$4,900	P	$9,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals draw a favorable matchup tonight against Jeff Locke, who is one of the most hittable pitchers in the slate. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, and Yadier Molina all bat from the right side of the plate and all have good numbers against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.325	0.360	0.162	32.9%	13.5%	20.0%	35.3%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.330	0.308	0.204	32.3%	13.9%	35.2%	42.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,000
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.375	0.355	0.217	29.9%	13.6%	16.8%	39.2%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,000
4	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.336	0.347	0.202	34.6%	8.7%	17.0%	35.8%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,000
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.342	0.357	0.143	31.9%	6.8%	12.1%	45.5%	C	$2,800	C	$3,900	C	$7,600
6	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.312	0.326	0.206	38.3%	9.8%	27.2%	30.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
7	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.389	0.318	0.227	26.7%	8.3%	29.2%	40.0%	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
8	Alex Mejia	RIGHT	0.571	0.488	0.600	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	40.0%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,800
9	Adam Wainwright	RIGHT	0.237	0.197	0.192	35.0%	0.0%	25.9%	47.1%	P	$7,700	P	$8,400	P	$16,400

MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 3rd

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Stackability Rating System:

Baltimore at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Keon Broxton, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar, Manny Pina

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Washington – 6:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Michael Taylor, Ryan Raburn, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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