MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-07 05:42:27

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Philadelphia
			Jon Lester					Adam Morgan
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -260					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.282	5	28.6%	5.1%	SP vs. Left	0.289	3	12.5%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.282	18	23.9%	6.0%	SP vs. Right	0.361	18	14.8%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$11,600
					FPPG:		39.7	FPPG:		22.2
					Pitcher Rating:		97.3	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	2	109.0	2.66	1.17	28.8%	3.4%	11.9%	53.8%	30.8%	32.5%
2016	11	100.9	3.47	2.29	24.9%	6.1%	9.6%	45.7%	33.7%	30.5%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

It’s nice to see that the Cubs aren’t playing during the day. It seems like the only way to target Cubbies these days is to play the all-day slate. Tonight they head to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. Lester comes into tonight’s contest in great form, posting a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.9% in 11 starts this season. He draws a favorable matchup against a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 29th in team wOBA and 26th in team K% against southpaws this season. Lester is a step above the other pitching options tonight and should be extra chalky in cash games.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Morgan
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,100
					FPPG:		15.3	FPPG:		6.1
					Pitcher Rating:		36.0	Pitcher Rank:		20
L14 Days	2	89.5	3.90	10.80	18.4%	2.0%	13.4%	43.2%	40.5%	42.1%
2016	7	88.9	4.82	7.07	15.0%	6.3%	10.6%	36.1%	40.2%	36.3%
2015	15	83.1	4.94	4.48	13.9%	4.8%	9.7%	30.6%	49.3%	29.8%

Morgan has not fared well over the last two season, posting close to a 4.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 15%. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters, but he is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. He is an easy fade tonight against the Cubs, who are ranked eighth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs come into tonight’s game with the highest implied run total of the 30 teams in action. They draw a favorable matchup against lefty Adam Morgan, who has allowed a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Jorge Soler, and Javier Baez all hit from the right side and all sport a .345+ wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.343 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.4% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.40 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.92 (1 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.374	0.155	0.362	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,500
2	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.399	0.187	0.388	2B	$3,400	2B	$5,200
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.345	0.226	0.375	3B	$3,900	3B/OF	$5,300
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.369	0.189	0.414	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,000
5	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.496	0.262	0.385	SS	$2,600	3B/SS	$3,500
6	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.307	0.112	0.404	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,300
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.246	0.135	0.243	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.300	0.130	0.308	C	$2,200	C	$2,800
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.057	0.000	0.000	P	$11,000	P	$11,600
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.155	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia

It’s pretty rare to see a game where the two teams have the lowest and highest implied run totals on the board. The Phillies are obviously on the wrong end of that equation, as they are only projected to score 3.08 runs. They draw a tough matchup against Jon Lester, who has held both left and right-handed hitters to a .282 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.266 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.105 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.1% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.23 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.08 (20 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.314	0.080	0.340	OF	$3,300	OF	$2,900
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.257	0.034	0.262	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.255	0.339	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,100
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.475	0.214	0.364	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,600
5	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.371	0.216	0.105	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
6	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.318	0.067	0.306	2B	$2,900	2B	$2,500
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.251	0.088	0.304	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000
8	Adam Morgan	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,000	P	$4,100
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.276	0.119	0.192	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.289	0.119	0.246	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					Baltimore
			Danny Duffy					Mike Wright
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -105					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.253	0	27.0%	5.3%	SP vs. Left	0.412	8	14.3%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.339	19	17.3%	8.9%	SP vs. Right	0.343	10	15.3%	9.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Duffy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$4,300
					FPPG:		10.0	FPPG:		5.6
					Pitcher Rating:		54.3	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	2	75.5	3.51	6.35	23.9%	0.0%	12.6%	29.4%	55.9%	32.4%
2016	4	66.5	3.10	3.44	26.9%	4.7%	16.4%	34.3%	45.5%	26.0%
2015	24	98.3	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

Duffy has pitched well so far this season, posting a 3.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.9% and a walk rate of 4.7%. The knock on him from a DFS perspective is his inability to pitch deep into games. In his four starts since coming out of the bullpen, he hasn’t thrown more than 76 pitches. With a difficult matchup on the road, it’s easy to avoid Duffy in cash games. He does carry some decent GPP value on DraftKings though, as his $4,300 price tag is enticing.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Wright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,500
					FPPG:		18.3	FPPG:		8.1
					Pitcher Rating:		43.3	Pitcher Rank:		19
L14 Days	2	85.5	4.75	11.05	16.7%	5.6%	6.4%	28.6%	46.4%	46.4%
2016	9	97.2	4.61	5.88	16.8%	7.5%	6.6%	41.9%	34.8%	29.1%
2015	9	87.2	5.28	6.04	12.8%	8.8%	7.3%	37.7%	42.9%	29.7%

Wright has not looked good in his last 18 major league starts. During that stretch, he has a SIERA just under 5.00 with a strikeout rate right around 15%. He is a right-handed pitcher that hasn’t been effective against hitters from either side of the plate. He can be avoided tonight against the Royals in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the evening.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals come into tonight’s game with the seventh highest implied team total. They draw a favorable matchup against Mike Wright, who has allowed a .412 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .343 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Royals’ offense is in play in both cash games and GPPs.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.96 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.47 (7 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.267	0.060	0.239	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,600
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.327	0.087	0.347	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,000
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	0.132	0.404	OF	$3,300	OF	$5,100
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.391	0.199	0.402	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,400
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.337	0.198	0.552	C	$2,700	C	$4,800
6	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.335	0.214	0.282	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,900
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.310	0.144	0.284	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,200
8	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.312	0.183	0.263	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.304	0.120	0.350	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.149	0.347	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer (DK) Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Alcides Escobar, Whit Merrifield, Eric Hosmer (FD)

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles are ranked 25th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest total on the board. I wouldn’t necessarily call this a favorable matchup, but Danny Duffy has allowed a .339 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.296 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.153 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.8% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.53 (6 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.288	0.150	0.297	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,800
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.355	0.184	0.212	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,500
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.346	0.180	0.389	SS	$3,900	3B/SS	$5,100
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.353	0.271	0.420	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,400
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.332	0.192	0.264	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.282	0.121	0.295	C	$3,000	C	$3,900
7	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.349	0.149	0.340	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.256	0.099	0.244	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,100
9	Paul Janish	RIGHT	0.189	0.074	0.295			SS	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.158	0.306	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Joey Rickard, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					NY Yankees
			Matt Shoemaker					Masahiro Tanaka
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -145					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.316	15	19.3%	6.8%	SP vs. Left	0.279	15	22.8%	4.3%
SP vs. Right	0.337	16	23.0%	5.2%	SP vs. Right	0.277	16	21.1%	4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Shoemaker
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		25.6	FPPG:		12.7
					Pitcher Rating:		70.8	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	111.5	2.14	2.35	31.2%	0.0%	19.7%	42.9%	21.4%	26.2%
2016	10	88.0	3.74	5.50	22.8%	5.6%	13.8%	36.6%	34.1%	29.9%
2015	24	87.0	3.98	4.46	20.4%	6.2%	9.1%	39.2%	42.4%	30.9%

Shoemaker seems to have fixed whatever was plaguing him over the last year or so. In his last three starts, he has 31 strikeouts while only allowing four runs. To put that into perspective, Shoemaker only had 22 strikeouts in his previous eight starts. I don’t know if I buy his fantasy value in the long run, but we can certainly take advantage in DFS. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA and ninth in team K% against right-handed pitching. At his price point, he is a viable SP2 and GPP play.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Masahiro Tanaka
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		32.0	FPPG:		17.9
					Pitcher Rating:		81.7	Pitcher Rank:		3
L14 Days	2	93.0	4.07	0.69	12.5%	2.1%	7.0%	48.8%	22.0%	34.2%
2016	11	93.5	3.56	2.78	19.8%	4.6%	11.5%	54.1%	25.8%	29.6%
2015	24	95.4	3.36	3.51	22.8%	4.4%	11.4%	47.0%	33.8%	31.1%

Tanaka’s strikeout rate has been down a bit this season, but he has otherwise been in great form. In his last 11 starts, he has a 3.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.8% and a walk rate of only 4.6%. He has an elite ground ball rate and he has managed to lower his hard hit contact rate. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Angels, who are ranked 14th in team wOBA and first in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Tanaka grades out as the third best pitching option overall tonight.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels’ offense has been much better over the last couple of weeks, but they come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. Over the last two seasons, Masahiro Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA. Mike Trout is a borderline elite play tonight, although I prefer to use him in GPPs when he is in tough matchups. The rest of the Angels can be avoided.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.7% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.36 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.74 (17 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.342	0.096	0.315	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,400
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.338	0.166	0.467	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.414	0.287	0.385	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,100
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.331	0.215	0.389	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,000
5	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.306	0.112	0.282	2B	$2,800	2B	$2,900
6	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.329	0.185	0.297	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,200
7	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.266	0.064	0.239	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800
8	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.293	0.129	0.234	C	$2,500	C	$2,400
9	Gregorio Petit	RIGHT	0.279	0.101	0.261	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.151	0.319	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (Cash Games)

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

It’s hard to gauge the Yankees’ matchup tonight against Matt Shoemaker. On the one hand, he has allowed a .316 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .337 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. But, on the other hand, he has been dominant in his last three starts. With how cold this offense has been over the last two weeks, I see the Yankees more as GPP plays tonight at home.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.1% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.79 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.26 (11 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.307	0.106	0.298	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.332	0.153	0.269	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.360	0.223	0.353	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,800
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.338	0.217	0.287	3B	$3,300	1B/3B	$3,600
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.325	0.202	0.142	C	$2,700	C	$3,400
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.291	0.132	0.223	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,100
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.300	0.120	0.320	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.302	0.102	0.369	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,200
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.413	0.381	0.295	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.182	0.284	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Mets					Pittsburgh
			Steven Matz					Jon Niese
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -115					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.313	0	22.2%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.334	6	17.5%	4.3%
SP vs. Right	0.255	8	24.0%	3.9%	SP vs. Right	0.343	26	14.5%	8.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Steven Matz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		40.1	FPPG:		21.2
					Pitcher Rating:		82.5	Pitcher Rank:		2
L14 Days	2	96.0	3.64	1.98	18.5%	5.6%	8.9%	60.0%	25.0%	19.5%
2016	9	93.9	3.18	2.60	24.1%	5.0%	8.9%	55.8%	25.9%	22.7%
2015	6	96.0	3.63	2.27	22.8%	6.7%	8.3%	45.5%	33.7%	21.2%

Matz is having an outstanding season so far, posting a 3.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.1%. He is one of those pitchers that makes everything look effortless on the mound. He always seems in control, which could be why he has such great command. His matchup against the Pirates isn’t my favorite, but at least he is facing them in a pitcher’s park. I have Jon Lester ranked well above Matz tonight, but he grades out as the second best pitching option in the slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Niese
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,800
					FPPG:		25.0	FPPG:		11.5
					Pitcher Rating:		56.4	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	2	94.0	4.27	2.45	15.7%	7.8%	5.3%	56.4%	23.1%	25.6%
2016	11	93.1	4.36	4.36	16.6%	7.8%	7.0%	53.9%	27.7%	28.4%
2015	29	93.1	4.27	4.13	14.7%	7.1%	5.8%	54.5%	24.7%	29.7%

Niese has been an easy pitcher to avoid this season. In 11 starts, he has a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.6%. He does benefit from pitching at PNC Park, but it’s hard to trust him in DFS. He carries too much risk for cash games and he doesn’t have enough upside for GPPs. Even though the Mets’ offense looks more like a Triple-A lineup right now, I will continue to avoid Niese in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are missing some of their key players offensively, which is a big reason why they have dropped so far in runs scored per game. They come into tonight’s game with the eighth lowest team total on the board. The good news is that they get to face Jon Niese, who has allowed a .334 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .343 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.305 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.157 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 27.0% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.76 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (13 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.266	0.136	0.298	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
2	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.328	0.147	0.370	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.317	0.134	0.321	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,300
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.319	0.161	0.473	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,500
5	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.377	0.248	0.352	SS	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,900
6	James Loney	LEFT	0.273	0.111	0.381	1B	$2,600	1B	$4,100
7	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.138	0.000	0.112	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.229	0.137	0.266	C	$2,000	C	$2,200
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.416	0.333	0.220	P	$9,700	P	$10,400
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.156	0.310	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Juan Lagares, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are ranked fourth in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO, but they have the fifth lowest implied run total tonight. They draw a difficult matchup against Steven Matz, who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. In his first 15 major league starts, Matz has held right-handed hitters to a .255 wOBA. The Pirates will be low owned, but I will likely be avoiding their offense altogether.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.343 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.172 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.8% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.95 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (16 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.340	0.093	0.364	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,300
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.369	0.187	0.286	OF	$4,000	OF	$3,600
3	David Freese	RIGHT	0.347	0.212	0.433	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,300
4	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.347	0.221	0.409	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,300
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.367	0.118	0.278	C	$2,500	C	$2,800
6	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.309	0.157	0.377	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.328	0.104	0.220	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,800
8	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.320	0.159	0.287	OF	$2,500	2B/SS	$2,500
9	Jon Niese	LEFT	0.207	0.000	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$7,800
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.139	0.295	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – NONE

Toronto at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					Detroit
			J.A. Happ					Michael Fulmer
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -123					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.282	2	23.8%	6.6%	SP vs. Left	0.252	0	14.7%	6.7%
SP vs. Right	0.307	21	18.3%	6.8%	SP vs. Right	0.332	5	33.7%	8.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		31.5	FPPG:		15.8
					Pitcher Rating:		47.8	Pitcher Rank:		17
L14 Days	2	96.5	4.87	1.38	16.0%	10.0%	7.3%	51.4%	32.4%	43.2%
2016	11	92.8	4.73	3.06	16.0%	7.8%	8.7%	44.2%	34.6%	31.6%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

I seem to mention this every time he is on the mound, but Happ could be in for some serious regression moving forward. The difference between his SIERA and ERA is nearly two runs, which suggests that he has been very fortunate so far. Not only are there red flags with his numbers, but he draws one of the worst possible matchups. The Tigers have nine right-handed hitters to throw at him and Happ has to face them in Comerica Park.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		38.9	FPPG:		20.1
					Pitcher Rating:		75.3	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	2	102.5	3.72	0.00	20.0%	5.5%	9.8%	52.5%	27.5%	20.0%
2016	7	98.6	3.49	3.24	25.4%	7.5%	11.0%	49.6%	30.4%	29.6%

Fulmer flew under the radar in his first five starts, but now people are starting to recognize how well he has pitched in his rookie season. He owns a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4%. He has great velocity on his pitches and he is generating swings and misses at an 11% clip. He draws a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays, but he gets to face them at home. The biggest concern for me isn’t the matchup, it’s the price tag. If he was priced in the $7,000 range, I would be a lot more interested.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays come into tonight’s game with the tenth highest team total on the board. They draw a fairly tough matchup against Michael Fulmer, although he is still relatively inexperienced at the major league level. Given the prices of the Blue Jays’ hitters, I will not be looking their way in cash games. They do make intriguing tournaments plays though.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.173 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.9% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.24 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.36 (10 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.385	0.286	0.312	OF	$4,400	OF	$3,900
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.379	0.254	0.361	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.375	0.265	0.393	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,100
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.340	0.159	0.277	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.337	0.217	0.306	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,000
6	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.351	0.164	0.259	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,200
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.303	0.177	0.425	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.301	0.127	0.202	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.373	0.182	0.394	SS	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.349	0.203	0.325	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – GPP

Detroit

The Tigers have the fourth highest implied run total tonight, as they square off against J.A. Happ at home. Happ hasn’t been awful against right-handed hitters, but he has allowed a lot of home runs to batters from that side of the plate. Eight of the Tigers’ nine projected starters have at least a .354 wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.323 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.155 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.0% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.64 (4 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.378	0.174	0.376	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,700
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.354	0.146	0.348	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.378	0.183	0.377	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,300
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.379	0.135	0.450	C	$3,100	1B	$4,400
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.379	0.269	0.357	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,100
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.371	0.228	0.288	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,900
7	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.255	0.101	0.262	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,600
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.375	0.233	0.276	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.354	0.105	0.305	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.358	0.175	0.338	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 6th

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer (DK) Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Alcides Escobar, Whit Merrifield, Eric Hosmer (FD)

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Joey Rickard, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (Cash Games)

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Juan Lagares, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – NONE

Toronto at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – GPP

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Are you an incentives member? Come check out the MLB Expert Chat from 5:30 – 6:00 PM ET.

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author