MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 2nd

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-06-03 01:34:57

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Milwaukee at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Milwaukee								Chicago White Sox
			Jhoulys Chacin							James Shields
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-130							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.380	40.2%	13.6%	10.6%	44.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.250	0.320	24.2%	15.0%	19.3%	45.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.293	41.2%	7.3%	22.5%	36.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.383	35.8%	6.0%	11.9%	34.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jhoulys Chacin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	32	4.63	3.89	20.0%	9.4%	49.1%	28.5%	20.2%
	2018	12	5.08	3.69	16.7%	10.4%	40.4%	40.7%	19.1%
	L14	2	4.99	3.97	19.6%	10.9%	25.8%	48.4%	22.6%

We start things off with a matchup between a pair of hittable pitchers in a hitter-friendly park. Chacin’s 5.08 SIERA suggests he hasn’t pitched as well as his 3.69 ERA says. He has about a league average strikeout rate with a walk rate over 10% so far this season. Chacin has also allowed a hard-hit rate nearing 41%. He has had some success against righties, but left-handed hitters have teed off on him to the tune of a .357 wOBA so far this season. The White Sox are a bad offense, but the matchup alone isn’t enough to put Chacin on my radar.

Quick Breakdown: Chacin is an easy fade, even against the White Sox.

James Shields
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$10,200
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	21	4.94	5.23	20.0%	10.3%	38.2%	33.3%	19.3%
	2018	11	5.25	4.54	15.5%	10.3%	39.0%	30.8%	14.5%
	L14	2	5.02	3.21	16.4%	9.1%	37.5%	30.0%	10.0%

At this point, I’m starting to wonder if stacking against James Shields is ever going to be worth the effort. The right-hander hasn’t pitched well this season, but he keeps turning in frustratingly solid starts. While he has kept the hard-hit rate down this season, he has a SIERA of 5.25 and his walk rate is only 5% lower than his weak 15% K-rate. While he draws a matchup today with a Brewers team that will strike out, Shields hasn’t really shown that he’s capable of missing bats at this stage of his career. He’s going to come back down to earth at some point, so why not today?

Quick Breakdown: As usual, Shields is a full fade.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers get what should be a favorable matchup with James Shields, While Shields hasn’t gotten blasted nearly as often as we’d like, he is still a low-strikeout, fly ball pitcher taking the mound in a good park for power. Lefties have historically been the preferred targets against Shields, so I’m thinking his .250 wOBA allowed to southpaws this season is just noise. Left-handed Brewers make for elite plays, while I won’t talk you off of some of their better righty sticks, either.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Jesus Aguilar, Domingo Santana

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Based on the numbers, Jhoulys Chacin is due for some regression. The White Sox have a middling lineup in general, which makes a full stack somewhat challenging. Still, I think this is an offense with which you can pick your spots. Yoan Moncada makes for an elite play presumably hitting leadoff from the left side, and he’s easily the best target here. Jose Abreu always has dong potential from the right side, while Daniel Palka and Yolmer Sanchez are a couple of playable value options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Oakland								Kansas City
			Trevor Cahill							Jason Hammel
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-132							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.225	0.274	40.5%	7.7%	27.7%	56.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.418	47.4%	9.1%	17.4%	30.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.260	0.326	46.6%	3.9%	22.6%	62.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.344	0.343	40.9%	3.9%	12.9%	47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Cahill
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	14	4.43	4.93	22.8%	11.8%	55.6%	28.9%	22.4%
	2018	7	3.03	2.25	24.6%	5.4%	60.2%	44.4%	10.4%
	L14	2	3.64	1.20	16.4%	3.6%	58.1%	37.2%	16.3%

Trevor Cahill will take the mound for the A’s today in a #RevengeGame against one of his many former employers. He’s pitched well this season in his heoric return to Oakland, as evidenced by his strikeout rate over 24%, 60% ground ball rate and minimal walks. The 44.3% hard contact rate is certainly cause for concern, but his ground ball lean helps him limit damage. The Royals aren’t a lineup that whiffs a whole lot as a team, but they also have little power and this is a park that typically swallows up home runs. The lessened blowup risk combined with strikeout upside puts Cahill on my radar today, though it’s tough to stomach paying over $10,000 for him on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Cahill is playable, but he’s way overpriced on DK.

Jason Hammel
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	32	4.65	5.29	18.0%	6.0%	38.0%	31.6%	16.6%
	2018	11	4.80	5.23	15.0%	6.3%	40.5%	43.8%	12.5%
	L14	2	2.72	0.73	31.4%	3.9%	36.7%	40.6%	18.8%

Quick Breakdown: Despite pitching in blazing conditions against a powerful Rangers lineup last time out, Jason Hammel wound up shutting Texas down and striking out 10 in 5.1 innings. Don’t ever change, Rangers. Today Hammel gets a far more daunting matchup against an A’s team with plenty of thunder. Last start notwithstanding, Hammel has shown very little strikeout potential (15% this season) and his hard contact rate is hovering around 44%. He’s a fly ball pitcher that has yielded 7 dingers in 11 starts. Oakland will swing and miss, but there’s an awful lot more risk than potential reward with Hammel in this spot.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s get a potentially glorious matchup against Jason Hammel, a homer-prone pitcher that rarely racks up strikeouts in bunches. Kauffman Stadium isn’t ideal for power, but the A’s have shown that they care not for your ballpark dimensions. We saw them put 16 runs on the board last night, and a similar outcome today won’t surprise me. They’re capable of hitting it out anywhere. Oakland makes for one of the most appealing stacks of the slate, and I’m cool rostering hitters of either handedness against the righty.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – The Matts (Olson, Chapman, Joyce), Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Chad Pinder, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City

KC draws a mediocre matchup against Trevor Cahill. Cahill doesn’t surrender many dongs and he’s a ground ball pitcher with legit strikeout stuff. Cahill has been more vulnerable against lefties in his career, so you can take a shot on Mike Moustakas and hope he runs into one. Otherwise I see very little reason to play a bunch of Royals.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Pittsburgh								St. Louis
			Chad Kuhl							Luke Weaver
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-145							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.383	0.420	41.9%	10.7%	22.1%	31.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.346	0.357	29.1%	9.4%	17.1%	40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.338	30.4%	6.9%	22.3%	40.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.290	31.4%	7.0%	25.6%	45.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$12,100
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	31	4.79	4.35	20.9%	10.6%	41.9%	36.1%	17.2%
	2018	11	4.23	3.94	22.2%	8.8%	35.8%	36.0%	16.3%
	L14	2	4.45	1.50	22.5%	10.2%	31.3%	36.4%	24.2%

Chad Kuhl seems to be one of those guys that’s a better real life pitcher than fantasy asset. His strikeouts are sitting at a respectable 22% so far this season, and the walks are down about 2% from last year. He’s a fly ball pitcher allowing a hard-hit rate of about 36%, which leads to some homers. He’s allowed 11 dongs already this season after conceding only 17 in 2017. Kuhl takes on a talented Cardinals offense today in a pitcher-friendly park. I don’t hate Kuhl considering he’ll typically give you 6 innings without getting blown up, but I’m not particularly enthralled by the idea of playing him, either.

Quick Breakdown: This is a slate lacking viable SP2s, but I’m still not all that interested in Kuhl.

Luke Weaver
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	10	3.29	3.88	28.6%	6.8%	49.4%	25.9%	19.1%
	2018	11	4.16	4.63	21.5%	8.1%	42.9%	30.2%	21.5%
	L14	2	3.71	5.73	23.9%	6.5%	35.5%	50.0%	18.8%

Luke Weaver was electrifying during his brief stint in the big leagues last year, but success has been harder to come by this season. His K-rate is down about 7% to 21.5% so far this season, but his minor league numbers indicate he should see some positive regression in that department moving forward. That may not come today, however, as the Pirates have been one of the toughest teams to strike out all year long. Pittsburgh’s lineup isn’t all that imposing in general, but Weaver’s shaky form and the matchup aren’t really to my liking. I’d rather play him than Kuhl given his better K upside, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Quick Breakdown: I expect Weaver to improve, but I’m not a fan of his matchup today against the Pirates.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

While I’m not crazy about playing Luke Weaver today, he’s also a guy I’m not going to go out of my way to target with bats. Weaver has shown a fairly wide split, so I’m fine with deploying some of the Pirates lefties as one-offs or as a mini-stack in GPPs. Fortunately, some of their best hitters swing it from the left side. I’ll ignore the righties, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Austin Meadows, Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

Chad Kuhl has one of the wider platoon splits for a righty in the league, so you can always attack him with lefties if you want. The problem here is that the Cardinals don’t have a ton of attractive left-handed hitters outside of Matt Carpenter. Carp is an elite play given the splits and the fact that he’s finally rounded into form. Otherwise, the Cardinals aren’t really jumping out to me here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET

NY Yankees								Baltimore
			Masahiro Tanaka							Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-165							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.324	26.7%	7.8%	18.5%	49.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	0.327	28.4%	9.5%	21.3%	38.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.322	36.0%	6.0%	25.8%	42.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.356	0.352	38.6%	3.3%	20.8%	52.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$18,900
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	30	3.52	4.74	25.8%	5.5%	49.2%	31.4%	19.5%
	2018	11	3.82	4.62	22.8%	6.7%	45.6%	32.0%	19.4%
	L14	2	4.82	4.09	24.4%	15.6%	54.2%	30.8%	26.9%

Masahiro Tanaka is a solid strikeout pitcher with some solid peripheral numbers. He has a career K-rate of 23.5% alongside a stellar career BB% of 4.8. His career hard-hit rate over 32% isn’t egregious, either. His problem has always been homers. Tanaka has surrendered 12 dingers already this season after allowing 35 last year. He faces a vulnerable Orioles lineup today chock-full of righties. Tanaka has shown a slight reverse-split tendency during his career, which doesn’t really bode all that well against this offense. Still, the O’s are so hit-or-miss that I think Tanaka is very much in the SP2 conversation today.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka’s matchup and price point make him my preferred SP2 option on the afternoon slate.

Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	34	4.41	4.68	21.9%	8.7%	42.7%	32.3%	18.2%
	2018	11	3.90	4.31	21.0%	6.1%	46.5%	34.2%	16.8%
	L14	2	3.35	7.00	23.9%	6.5%	50.0%	40.0%	20.0%

Kevin Gausman has been quite the enigma this season. His 4.31 ERA is mediocre, and his 3.90 SIERA is more promising. His strikeout numbers have been about average, while he’s kept his walks down. He has also allowed a decent amount of hard contact (34.2%) while being a pitcher with pretty severe reverse splits. His matchup today against the Yankees is suboptimal, but he’s a pitcher with decent pedigree coming at a mega discount today. Gausman has more talent than his price tag would indicate. I would say he’s in play as a potential SP2, but there’s no shortage of risk here against a stout Yankees lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is viable as a cheap punt, but I’d limit my exposure to GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Kevin Gausman is a homer-prone pitcher pitching in a friendly park for power against a lineup full of sluggers. Gausman has also shown a pretty severe reverse-split in his career, though it’s still not as though he’s some dominant force against the lefties. Still, I’d make Yanks that swing it from the right side my preferred targets. Aaron Judge jumps off the page as the top play here, followed by Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton (if you like zeroes). The lefties are still playable, which means Brett Gardner, Greg Bird and Didi Gregorius are also on my radar. The spot isn’t as great as last night’s against Andrew Cashner, but this team is still plenty stackable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Masahiro Tanaka will give up some homers, but the O’s draw a generally mediocre matchup against the right-hander. Tanaka has shown a slight reverse-split, and the Orioles have a lineup full of right-handed hitters. Manny Machado is playable in any matchup, but he may be the only Baltimore bat I have much interest in playing. Jonathan Schoop has struggled, but he’s still too cheap given his talent level. Otherwise, the Orioles look negligible on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays –

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Cleveland at Minnesota – 4:10 PM ET

Cleveland								Minnesota
			Trevor Bauer							Lance Lynn
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-138							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.257	0.294	38.1%	7.6%	27.3%	44.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.402	0.390	40.6%	13.3%	15.6%	60.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.314	39.6%	8.9%	29.6%	47.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.352	0.341	41.2%	14.7%	25.2%	43.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$12,000	Salary:		$23,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	31	3.80	4.19	26.2%	8.0%	46.4%	34.4%	15.0%
	2018	11	3.38	2.61	28.6%	8.3%	46.2%	38.9%	14.6%
	L14	2	2.74	2.70	34.6%	7.3%	37.5%	43.8%	3.1%

Trevor Bauer has been outstanding this season. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 28.6%, which is fantastic. While the whiffs are great, he’s been getting hit pretty hard when hitters actually make contact. Bauer has allowed a hard contact rate of nearly 39%. It hasn’t really hurt him quite yet, but we could see some regression for him. Bauer draws an exploitable matchup against a Twins lineup that hasn’t been as strong this season as they were last year. Bauer makes for an elite pitching option on a slate without many that stand out.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is the top option on the afternoon slate.

Lance Lynn
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$4,300	Salary:		$8,400
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	33	4.85	3.43	19.7%	10.1%	44.0%	29.2%	21.1%
	2018	10	4.82	5.94	21.5%	14.2%	51.0%	40.9%	20.1%
	L14	2	4.00	1.42	17.0%	7.6%	61.5%	35.9%	20.5%

Lance Lynn hasn’t looked quite right this season, and today he has the misfortune of facing a red-hot Indians offense. The strikeout numbers are solid (over 21%), but his walk rate is an unsightly 14.2% so far. The right-hander is also a guy that has historically struggled with lefties, and this year has been no different. Left-handed hitters have a wOBA over .400 so far this season, while righties aren’t far behind at .352. Lynn is super cheap, but the risk here is immense.

Quick Breakdown: While Bauer is the best option today, Lynn is probably the worst.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians get an exploitable matchup against Lance Lynn, who has been wild with his control this season. The Tribe have a number of left-handed bats that can take advantage of Lynn’s wide split, so Cleveland makes for one of the better offenses to stack on the afternoon slate. Start things off with Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and Michael Brantley and go from there. You can pick your spots with a righty or two, as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota

I’m on the fence regarding whether I want to play Bauer, but I certainly don’t want to stack bats up against him, either. He’s been tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, though lefties have historically enjoyed a little more success. I don’t hate a flier on someone like Eddie Rosario or Max Kepler as a one-off, but a full stack here looks silly.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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