MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 15th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Baltimore at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Baltimore Boston
Dylan Bundy Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -207 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.344 39.1% 7.6% 17.7% 29.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.247 0.265 18.5% 4.9% 30.6% 42.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.295 32.2% 6.9% 27.5% 37.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.249 31.4% 5.1% 37.1% 37.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Bundy
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 9 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6%
2018 3 2.51 1.35 32.5% 6.5% 41.3% 27.7% 19.2%

Good Sunday to everyone. It’s going to be an interesting day in MLB as we have a full slate, a doubleheader or two, and already a postponed game between the White Sox and Twins. Weather is going to be something to watch closely as the storm front continues to dominate the Great Lakes and surrounding regions. We get things started with a game between a up and coming pitcher and one of the greats in the game.

Dylan Bundy is a 25 year old right-handed pitcher who is finally starting to live up to the top 10 prospect status he’s had in the past, mainly as a result of a filthy slider that netted a 43% K rate last season with 22% usage. It’s been even more absurd thus far this season as batters are whiffing at a 74% rate.

2018 (20 IP)
.297 wOBA LH 0.0 HR/9 26.5% K 5.9% BB
.180 wOBA RH .73 HR/9 37.2% K 7.0% BB

2017 (.326 wOBA 1st half .277 wOBA 2nd half)
.328 wOBA LH 1.36 HR/9 16.8% K 7.8% BB
.290 wOBA RH 1.39 HR/9 26.3% K 6.9% BB

Quick Breakdown:

Vegas recognizes Bundy’s potential as they have given the Red Sox a fairly low run total of just over four runs – a total that is more than 1.5 runs below their season total. While Bundy is affordably priced and a fringe GPP option, it’s hard to recommend anything but elite pitchers facing this Red Sox offense. They have only one batter that strikes out at a rate of higher than 23% and have seven hitters in their projected lineup that have a .157 or better ISO against RHP.

Chris Sale
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $12,400 Salary: $23,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5%
2018 3 2.13 1.06 34.9% 4.6% 30.8% 22.5% 27.5%

Chris Sale is expensive but priced like the stud pitcher that he is. He strikes out batters at well over a 30% clip including a 37% rate against RH bats.

2018 (17 IP)
.387 LH 0.00 HR/9 25.0% K 8.3% BB
.213 RH 0.61 HR/9 37.0% K 3.7% BB

2017
.234 LH 0.80 HR/9 31.1% K 4.6% BB
.265 RH 1.05 HR/9 37.1% K 5.2% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The Red Sox are healthy favorites and while the top half of the order is relatively tough against strikeouts, the bottom four all have K rates topping 27% against LHP. The Orioles have the third lowest total of the day. There are plenty of stud pitchers to choose from today and salary will be an issue, but Sale is as good a bet to put up a massive game as anyone on this slate. He’s a bit more affordable on FanDuel as the $12,400 price tag on DraftKings is a hefty one to pay.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.312 0.316 0.118 32.3% 4.4% 24.4% 53.5% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,400
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.366 0.397 0.281 44.7% 6.6% 15.5% 38.1% SS $4,100 SS $5,000 3B $9,300
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.393 0.374 0.275 38.7% 8.4% 23.6% 40.3% 2B $2,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.323 0.332 0.146 32.0% 6.9% 17.9% 44.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,700
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.341 0.364 0.197 39.3% 13.5% 20.9% 45.8% 3B $2,200 3B $2,700 1B $5,800
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.282 0.322 0.133 33.3% 9.9% 39.5% 34.5% 1B $2,100 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,800
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.343 0.340 0.188 38.8% 8.5% 27.9% 49.0% 2B $2,500 3B $3,000 SS $5,600
8 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.210 0.170 0.053 22.2% 9.5% 47.6% 44.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 LF $5,800
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.338 0.379 0.222 41.2% 5.2% 27.3% 39.2% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,400

This one is easy. While Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado have plus numbers against LHP, those LHP’s usually aren’t named Chris Sale. This is a easy fade of the full team unless you want to get super cute.

P.S. It’s also called lighting money on fire.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.338 0.354 0.190 37.4% 9.6% 11.6% 39.3% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.346 0.346 0.177 35.4% 10.7% 16.2% 38.4% OF $4,100 OF $4,200 LF $8,200
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.335 0.362 0.186 34.9% 7.9% 20.3% 41.2% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.395 0.412 0.343 49.2% 9.4% 27.6% 42.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 RF $9,000
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.317 0.303 0.201 37.3% 7.2% 21.3% 47.4% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.346 0.268 0.157 26.3% 3.1% 11.6% 52.2% SS $3,500 2B/SS $3,600 3B $7,600
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.300 0.322 0.160 34.6% 8.7% 22.8% 45.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.312 0.294 0.098 25.6% 4.7% 18.7% 47.7% C $2,100 C $3,300 C $6,400
9 Brock Holt LEFT 0.234 0.258 0.047 20.6% 11.5% 21.6% 53.6% 2B $2,100 2B/OF $3,100 3B $5,800

If the Bundy we’ve seen in the second half of last season and the start of 2018 shows up, the Red Sox aren’t a team we will want to target. They are expensive and the match up isn’t the best. However, Bundy has shown a proclivity to giving up a home run or two and this lineup is as capable as any of putting up numbers against good pitchers. They make for a nice contrarian stack and that’d be the only way I’d utilize the players off this team. Bundy has looked outright dominant against RH bats so the best targets are Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers

Stackability – ORANGE


Milwaukee at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Milwaukee NY Mets
Jhoulys Chacin Noah Syndergaard
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -200 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.356 33.6% 12.5% 15.2% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.234 0.268 29.6% 4.4% 34.1% 44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.280 26.0% 6.6% 23.1% 53.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.267 25.0% 3.0% 25.0% 66.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jhoulys Chacin
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.63 3.89 20.0% 9.4% 49.1% 28.5% 20.2%
2018 3 4.79 6.59 10.5% 10.5% 60.0% 42.3% 19.2%

Jhoulys Chacin has been terrible thus far this season after a fairly decent 2017 campaign. He’s much better against RH batters then LH batters and also much better at home where his wOBA allowed was .245 last season as opposed to .363 on the road. He’s not at home today.

2018 (13.2 IP) (.369 wOBA Home, .451 wOBA Road)
.445 wOBA LH 1.93 HR/9 3.7% K 18.5% BB
.401 wOBA RH 2.00 HR/9 15.0% K 5.0% BB

2017 (.245 wOBA Home .363 wOBA Road)
.338 wOBA LH 1.29 HR/9 16.1% K 12.1% BB
.266 wOBA RH .65 HR/9 23.9% K 6.8% BB

Quick Breakdown:

One, he’s not at home. Two, the Mets will have four to five LH batters in their lineup most likely. Three, of the RH bats in their projected lineup only one has a K rate topping 22%. Chacin might be a viable DFS SP at some point this season, but today isn’t one of those days even at a dirt cheap price tag on FanDuel

Noah Syndergaard
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,700 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3%
2018 3 2.18 3.94 32.8% 6.0% 55.0% 20.0% 22.5%

“Thor” as he is affectionately called has shown some dominant strikeout stuff thus far this season after an injury shortened 2017.

2018 (16 IP)
.294 LH 0.00 HR/9 28.6% K 7.1% BB
.322 RH 1.93 HR/9 35.9% K 5.1% BB

Career (2017 shortened by injury) (.259 wOBA Home .298 wOBA Road)
.294 LH 0.84 HR/9 26.5% K 7.0% BB
.262 RH 0.69 HR/9 30.5% K 3.8% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The Brewers will likely only have three LH bats in their lineup and have six batters in their lineup that K at a 20%+ rate including three that top 27%. The Brewers have the 5th lowest implied run total of the day and the Mets are one of the largest favorites on the slate. Syndergaard is affordably priced on both sites and is an excellent way to pivot away from the top arms of the slate. With weather concerns potentially knocking out arms like Kluber, Severino, and Strasburg, I like him a lot as a top GPP option.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.299 0.269 0.123 35.3% 5.9% 29.6% 57.6% 2B $2,100 2B $3,000 2B $5,900
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.394 0.368 0.303 43.9% 14.7% 27.5% 37.4% 1B $3,500 1B $4,900 1B $9,000
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.331 0.328 0.199 35.3% 7.2% 22.0% 50.8% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,400 LF $8,300
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.373 0.359 0.244 39.0% 10.7% 21.4% 42.2% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000 3B $7,400
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.369 0.349 0.212 37.4% 11.1% 29.8% 46.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,000 RF $5,800
6 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.283 0.288 0.167 28.9% 4.6% 17.7% 47.9% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,900
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.333 0.309 0.171 31.0% 6.7% 20.2% 35.6% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.312 0.288 0.144 30.6% 5.8% 18.3% 51.6% SS $2,100 SS $2,700 SS $5,600
9 Jhoulys Chacin RIGHT 0.194 0.172 0.026 11.1% 0.0% 14.3% 62.5% P $5,500 P $5,700 P $11,100

There’s not much to like from Milwaukee’s side. Syndergaard has been dinged up a little by the long ball to RH bats this season, but that sample size is very small. Eric Thames has great power numbers against RHP, but I’m not paying $4,900 for him on DraftKings in this matchup. Domingo Santana might strike out four times against Syndergaard, but he’s capable of hitting a long one against him as well. Not saying to play him, just saying it’s possible.

Then again, it’s also possible that I’ll win the PowerBall this week.

Right?

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (FanDuel)

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.421 0.398 0.295 39.8% 15.6% 21.9% 37.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.320 0.345 0.174 36.1% 9.8% 16.0% 40.5% 2B $3,900 2B $3,900 SS $7,500
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.370 0.347 0.232 39.7% 7.8% 19.6% 35.1% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.368 0.399 0.269 41.8% 10.3% 21.1% 33.0% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 RF $7,700
5 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.305 0.340 0.139 36.2% 7.8% 16.5% 35.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,300 1B $6,700
6 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.324 0.348 0.168 30.5% 14.9% 21.7% 37.4% 3B $3,800 3B $4,000 3B $7,200
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.272 0.234 0.122 22.9% 1.9% 32.1% 51.0% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.248 0.344 0.136 32.9% 10.9% 24.4% 50.7% C $2,000 C $2,200 C $3,900
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.240 0.250 0.000 50.0% 17.6% 47.1% 60.0% P $10,700 P $10,500 P $20,700

I want to attack Chacin while he looks this bad, but the problem is the weather in New York. The wind is blowing in at nearly 20 MPH, it’ll be between 35 and 40 degrees the entire game, and there is a good chance of precipitation. That’s not the best hitting environment, especially in pitcher friendly Citi Field. That said, I do like the matchup enough to take chances on stacks in GPPs and would not mind using Michael Conforto or Jay Bruce as one off’s in lineups as both have elite power numbers against RHP.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Stackability – YELLOW


Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Tampa Bay
Ben Lively Ryan Yarbrough
RIGHT **
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -138 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.375 0.372 29.5% 8.6% 11.3% 41.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.214 0.314 0.0% 30.8% 30.8% 20.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.288 30.0% 3.9% 19.2% 32.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.351 0.488 23.8% 11.5% 7.7% 23.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ben Lively
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 5.27 4.26 14.0% 6.5% 38.2% 30.2% 21.5%
2018 2 3.46 5.56 23.1% 5.8% 31.4% 25.7% 34.3%

Ben Lively takes the mound for the Phillies today in Tampa. He’s been fairly strong against RH hitters this season, but there’s not much to like outside of that.

2018 (11.1 IP)
.407 wOBA LH 1.50 HR/9 19.4% K 6.5% BB
.298 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 28.6% K 4.8% BB

2017
.369 wOBA LH 1.66 HR/9 10.0% K 9.0% BB
.316 wOBA RH .99 HR/9 18.1% K 3.9% BB

Quick Breakdown:

It’s a good matchup for Lively against a weak-hitting Rays team and he has good control and decent enough strikeout potential against RH bats that he’ll likely limit damage and Vegas has the Phillies projected for a modest 4.22 runs. However, the Rays don’t strikeout much – only three top a K rate of 22% and they’ll likely have four LH bats in their lineup, an area where Lively has proven to be vulnerable. I think there are better places you can find your SP2 or value SP today.

Ryan Yarbrough
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 0 6.08 2.25 15.4% 18.0% 23.1% 19.2% 19.2%

Ryan Yarbrough is a 26 year old southpaw with a fastball topping out around 90 MPH and an above average change. He has been good in the minors the last two seasons posting a combined 3.21 ERA in 285 innings pitched while striking out 258 batters. He does struggle a bit with control as he gave up 70 walks.

2018 (8 IP)
.214 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 30.8% K 30.8% BB
.349 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 7.7% K 11.5% BB

Quick Breakdown:

I’m not sure why Vegas only has the Phillies projected to score 3.78 runs. I think they top that number quite easily. I have no interest in Yarbrough here, even at under $5.5K on both sites.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.347 0.311 0.117 22.0% 11.0% 21.8% 49.8% 2B $3,700 2B $4,100 2B $8,400
2 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.352 0.396 0.218 36.4% 13.3% 17.3% 32.5% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.330 0.309 0.168 28.5% 6.3% 21.4% 41.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,700
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.433 0.400 0.329 42.1% 14.0% 23.1% 26.3% OF $4,600 OF $5,000 1B $10,300
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.347 0.342 0.203 36.0% 6.2% 27.7% 46.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 LF $6,600
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.314 0.360 0.207 38.1% 6.3% 28.1% 33.3% SS $3,500 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,700
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.292 0.313 0.173 28.9% 6.2% 15.9% 44.6% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.416 0.349 0.250 25.0% 2.1% 29.5% 53.3% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.294 0.296 0.111 16.7% 12.8% 23.3% 35.8% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Yarbrough does have a relatively surprising ERA of 2.25, but that’s why that number is so misleading. He has a 15.4% K rate, an 18.0% BB rate and a SIERA of 6.08. I’ll avoid LH bats against him, but give me all the Rhys Hoskins I can have. Carlos Santana is a viable play as well and keep an eye out for the starting lineup. Aaron Altherr is hitting 7th in the lineup and had a .350 wOBA and .266 ISO against LHP last season. He’s just $2,000 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings and is firmly in play as a value option.

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Aaron Altherr

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.340 0.339 0.177 27.5% 7.6% 12.2% 40.9% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 CF $5,900
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.349 0.306 0.200 36.1% 9.2% 23.3% 42.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $5,700
3 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.356 0.354 0.221 41.8% 8.5% 29.6% 38.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,700
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.303 0.338 0.159 35.5% 5.9% 25.1% 33.5% 1B $2,500 1B $3,000 1B $5,400
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.360 0.289 0.250 33.3% 9.8% 17.1% 50.0% 2B $2,500 2B $2,600 2B $4,600
6 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.389 0.311 0.129 20.8% 6.1% 21.2% 50.0% 3B $2,600 3B $3,000 3B $5,900
7 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.308 0.264 0.092 21.1% 9.7% 19.1% 49.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
8 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.292 0.330 0.175 31.7% 4.9% 18.0% 52.5% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.278 0.292 0.116 35.6% 3.1% 19.0% 50.0% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,900

Ben Lively is vulnerable to LH power and we’ll want to target some Tampa bats from that side of the plate. Kevin Kiermaier is dirt cheap, likely batting 2nd, and has a .200 ISO against RHP. He’s an elite option given the matchup and price tag. Denard Span and Joseph Wendle are the two other LH bats that will likely bat in the top five of the batting order and both are viable options by themselves or as part of a team stack.

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Joseph Wendle

Stackability – YELLOW


Pittsburgh at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Miami
Ivan Nova Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -128 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.378 33.9% 4.5% 11.8% 43.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.385 35.0% 9.9% 11.7% 38.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.317 34.5% 4.8% 21.1% 47.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.313 28.4% 7.8% 20.1% 48.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6%
2018 3 4.07 5.19 17.6% 5.4% 41.1% 28.6% 10.7%

Ivan Nova gets to face the Miami Marlins today and he hasn’t been that good for awhile now.

2018 (17.1 IP)
.184 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 5.6% K 5.6% BB
.506 wOBA RH 3.68 HR/9 29.0% K 5.3% BB

2017
.361 wOBA LH 1.78 HR/9 12.4% K 4.4% BB
.303 wOBA RH 1.10 HR/9 20.4% K 4.8% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The one good thing going for Nova is he gets to face a not very good Marlins offense that has only two LH bats projected in it. The bad news is that he sucks and outside of Lewis Brinson, the Marlins offer very little strikeout upside. When Vegas projects the Marlins to score over four runs in their home park, you know the SP they are facing is pretty, pretty bad. This is a pretty easy avoid for me.

Jose Urena
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 16 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.19 3.82 15.6% 8.8% 43.1% 31.8% 18.6%
2018 3 4.22 5.06 19.1% 8.8% 43.5% 32.6% 17.4%

Jose Urena faces the Pirates today – he’s been smashed thus far this season by LH bats and is just one of those “meh” pitchers that the Marlins often roll out there. Little to no upside, but usually will limit damage in part to the park he pitches in.

2018 (16 IP)
.403 wOBA LH 2.35 HR/9 20.6% K 8.8% BB
.283 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 17.7% K 8.8% BB

2017
.322 wOBA LH 1.32 HR/9 10.9% K 10.0% BB
.310 wOBA RH 1.43 HR/9 20.3% K 7.7% BB

Quick Breakdown:

He doesn’t strike batters out, gives up home runs, and Vegas has Pittsburgh with one of the five highest totals of the day. Another easy spot to avoid for me.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.321 0.323 0.140 33.6% 5.0% 16.1% 34.8% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,400
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.323 0.340 0.182 29.2% 8.2% 12.2% 40.1% OF $4,500 OF $4,700 RF $8,100
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.357 0.340 0.142 27.1% 7.4% 17.1% 47.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.344 0.334 0.207 32.6% 11.3% 19.6% 52.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.343 0.336 0.225 34.3% 5.8% 23.0% 38.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,300
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.319 0.337 0.121 32.8% 11.2% 19.8% 47.2% C $2,600 C $3,600 C $7,600
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.409 0.465 0.189 39.4% 7.5% 10.0% 36.4% 3B $3,100 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.314 0.303 0.149 27.6% 9.2% 15.4% 47.4% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $5,400
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.000 0.072 0.000 4.2% 0.0% 46.7% 66.7% P $7,900 P $8,800 P $17,000

Nova is prone to the long ball from both sides of the plate, but especially to LH bats (1.78 HR/9 last season). Justin Bour and his .248 ISO is an elite play for Miami today with Derek Dietrich and Starlin Castro also worth consideration given their lineup spots and matchup. I wish the Marlins had more power LH bats as I’d love to load up on them, but their projected lineup only has two LH hitters in total.

Elite Plays – Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Starlin Castro

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.319 0.323 0.182 33.7% 7.7% 20.8% 36.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
2 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.333 0.315 0.090 21.6% 8.4% 11.0% 52.5% SS $2,800 SS $2,700 2B $5,700
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.321 0.308 0.146 28.8% 4.0% 19.7% 51.7% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.374 0.397 0.248 40.2% 10.8% 20.2% 41.4% 1B $2,800 1B $3,000 1B $5,400
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.345 0.312 0.119 23.8% 15.5% 21.4% 57.1% 3B $2,900 3B $3,400 3B $6,300
6 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.303 0.295 0.156 24.7% 12.9% 21.7% 57.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,400
7 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.144 0.239 0.031 25.6% 6.8% 35.6% 59.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 CF $5,900
8 Bryan Holaday RIGHT 0.237 0.268 0.071 15.0% 4.5% 4.5% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,300 C $4,700
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.122 0.135 0.026 20.0% 0.0% 45.7% 41.7% P $5,900 P $5,800 P $11,000

The Pirates are never a sexy play and going to Miami is usually not a recipe for a big hitting day. Urena can limit damage at times, but he’s still worth attacking with top bats from opposing lineups. For the Pirates that would be the middle four of the order in Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, and Corey Dickerson. I also wouldn’t mind Colin Moran if he is in the starting lineup as he’s been impressive thus far against RHP. Dickerson and Bell are the two bats I’d want the most though.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW


Page 3 will be updated on a game-by-game basis. Check back periodically to see the game-by-game analysis

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About the Author

  • Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

  • Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix

Comments

  • darkknight007

    • Blogger of the Month

    I always enjoy your Grind Down articles… articulate and straight to the point. These games are dropping like flies and now the Washington/Colorado game could be the next victim. Running out of options which increases ownership. I might not play today but potential profits keeps pulling me back in like the mafia

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