MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 15th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Baltimore at Boston – 1:05 PM ET
| Baltimore | Boston | ||||||||||||||
 | Dylan Bundy |  | Chris Sale | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| BOS-207 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.325 | 0.344 | 39.1% | 7.6% | 17.7% | 29.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.247 | 0.265 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 30.6% | 42.2% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.279 | 0.295 | 32.2% | 6.9% | 27.5% | 37.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.261 | 0.249 | 31.4% | 5.1% | 37.1% | 37.2% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Dylan Bundy | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $14,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 9 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 28 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | 4.45 | 4.24 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 32.8% | 36.5% | 17.6% | |
| 2018 | 3 | 2.51 | 1.35 | 32.5% | 6.5% | 41.3% | 27.7% | 19.2% | |
Good Sunday to everyone. It’s going to be an interesting day in MLB as we have a full slate, a doubleheader or two, and already a postponed game between the White Sox and Twins. Weather is going to be something to watch closely as the storm front continues to dominate the Great Lakes and surrounding regions. We get things started with a game between a up and coming pitcher and one of the greats in the game.
Dylan Bundy is a 25 year old right-handed pitcher who is finally starting to live up to the top 10 prospect status he’s had in the past, mainly as a result of a filthy slider that netted a 43% K rate last season with 22% usage. It’s been even more absurd thus far this season as batters are whiffing at a 74% rate.
2018 (20 IP)
.297 wOBA LH 0.0 HR/9 26.5% K 5.9% BB
.180 wOBA RH .73 HR/9 37.2% K 7.0% BB
2017 (.326 wOBA 1st half .277 wOBA 2nd half)
.328 wOBA LH 1.36 HR/9 16.8% K 7.8% BB
.290 wOBA RH 1.39 HR/9 26.3% K 6.9% BB
Quick Breakdown:
Vegas recognizes Bundy’s potential as they have given the Red Sox a fairly low run total of just over four runs – a total that is more than 1.5 runs below their season total. While Bundy is affordably priced and a fringe GPP option, it’s hard to recommend anything but elite pitchers facing this Red Sox offense. They have only one batter that strikes out at a rate of higher than 23% and have seven hitters in their projected lineup that have a .157 or better ISO against RHP.
| Chris Sale | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $11,200 | Salary: | $12,400 | Salary: | $23,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 28 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 32 | 2.58 | 2.90 | 36.2% | 5.1% | 38.7% | 29.7% | 18.5% | |
| 2018 | 3 | 2.13 | 1.06 | 34.9% | 4.6% | 30.8% | 22.5% | 27.5% | |
Chris Sale is expensive but priced like the stud pitcher that he is. He strikes out batters at well over a 30% clip including a 37% rate against RH bats.
2018 (17 IP)
.387 LH 0.00 HR/9 25.0% K 8.3% BB
.213 RH 0.61 HR/9 37.0% K 3.7% BB
2017
.234 LH 0.80 HR/9 31.1% K 4.6% BB
.265 RH 1.05 HR/9 37.1% K 5.2% BB
Quick Breakdown:
The Red Sox are healthy favorites and while the top half of the order is relatively tough against strikeouts, the bottom four all have K rates topping 27% against LHP. The Orioles have the third lowest total of the day. There are plenty of stud pitchers to choose from today and salary will be an issue, but Sale is as good a bet to put up a massive game as anyone on this slate. He’s a bit more affordable on FanDuel as the $12,400 price tag on DraftKings is a hefty one to pay.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.316 | 0.118 | 32.3% | 4.4% | 24.4% | 53.5% | OF | $2,800 | 1B/OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,400 |
| 2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.397 | 0.281 | 44.7% | 6.6% | 15.5% | 38.1% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $5,000 | 3B | $9,300 |
| 3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.393 | 0.374 | 0.275 | 38.7% | 8.4% | 23.6% | 40.3% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,500 |
| 4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.332 | 0.146 | 32.0% | 6.9% | 17.9% | 44.1% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,700 |
| 5 | Danny Valencia | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.364 | 0.197 | 39.3% | 13.5% | 20.9% | 45.8% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $2,700 | 1B | $5,800 |
| 6 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.322 | 0.133 | 33.3% | 9.9% | 39.5% | 34.5% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B | $3,200 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
| 7 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.340 | 0.188 | 38.8% | 8.5% | 27.9% | 49.0% | 2B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,000 | SS | $5,600 |
| 8 | Anthony Santander | SWITCH | 0.210 | 0.170 | 0.053 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 47.6% | 44.4% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,900 | LF | $5,800 |
| 9 | Caleb Joseph | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.379 | 0.222 | 41.2% | 5.2% | 27.3% | 39.2% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
This one is easy. While Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado have plus numbers against LHP, those LHP’s usually aren’t named Chris Sale. This is a easy fade of the full team unless you want to get super cute.
P.S. It’s also called lighting money on fire.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Boston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.354 | 0.190 | 37.4% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 39.3% | OF | $4,900 | OF | $5,600 | RF | $10,800 |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.346 | 0.177 | 35.4% | 10.7% | 16.2% | 38.4% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,200 |
| 3 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.362 | 0.186 | 34.9% | 7.9% | 20.3% | 41.2% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,700 | 1B | $9,200 |
| 4 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.412 | 0.343 | 49.2% | 9.4% | 27.6% | 42.7% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,900 | RF | $9,000 |
| 5 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.303 | 0.201 | 37.3% | 7.2% | 21.3% | 47.4% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,800 |
| 6 | Eduardo Nunez | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.268 | 0.157 | 26.3% | 3.1% | 11.6% | 52.2% | SS | $3,500 | 2B/SS | $3,600 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 7 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.322 | 0.160 | 34.6% | 8.7% | 22.8% | 45.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,800 |
| 8 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.294 | 0.098 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 18.7% | 47.7% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
| 9 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.234 | 0.258 | 0.047 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 21.6% | 53.6% | 2B | $2,100 | 2B/OF | $3,100 | 3B | $5,800 |
If the Bundy we’ve seen in the second half of last season and the start of 2018 shows up, the Red Sox aren’t a team we will want to target. They are expensive and the match up isn’t the best. However, Bundy has shown a proclivity to giving up a home run or two and this lineup is as capable as any of putting up numbers against good pitchers. They make for a nice contrarian stack and that’d be the only way I’d utilize the players off this team. Bundy has looked outright dominant against RH bats so the best targets are Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers
Stackability – ORANGE
Milwaukee at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET
| Milwaukee | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
 | Jhoulys Chacin |  | Noah Syndergaard | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYM-200 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.345 | 0.356 | 33.6% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 46.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.234 | 0.268 | 29.6% | 4.4% | 34.1% | 44.4% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.279 | 0.280 | 26.0% | 6.6% | 23.1% | 53.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.302 | 0.267 | 25.0% | 3.0% | 25.0% | 66.2% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jhoulys Chacin | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $11,100 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 28 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 32 | 4.63 | 3.89 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 49.1% | 28.5% | 20.2% | |
| 2018 | 3 | 4.79 | 6.59 | 10.5% | 10.5% | 60.0% | 42.3% | 19.2% | |
Jhoulys Chacin has been terrible thus far this season after a fairly decent 2017 campaign. He’s much better against RH batters then LH batters and also much better at home where his wOBA allowed was .245 last season as opposed to .363 on the road. He’s not at home today.
2018 (13.2 IP) (.369 wOBA Home, .451 wOBA Road)
.445 wOBA LH 1.93 HR/9 3.7% K 18.5% BB
.401 wOBA RH 2.00 HR/9 15.0% K 5.0% BB
2017 (.245 wOBA Home .363 wOBA Road)
.338 wOBA LH 1.29 HR/9 16.1% K 12.1% BB
.266 wOBA RH .65 HR/9 23.9% K 6.8% BB
Quick Breakdown:
One, he’s not at home. Two, the Mets will have four to five LH batters in their lineup most likely. Three, of the RH bats in their projected lineup only one has a K rate topping 22%. Chacin might be a viable DFS SP at some point this season, but today isn’t one of those days even at a dirt cheap price tag on FanDuel
| Noah Syndergaard | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $10,700 | Salary: | $10,500 | Salary: | $20,700 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 28 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7 | 2.74 | 2.97 | 27.4% | 2.4% | 57.6% | 30.2% | 16.3% | |
| 2018 | 3 | 2.18 | 3.94 | 32.8% | 6.0% | 55.0% | 20.0% | 22.5% | |
“Thor” as he is affectionately called has shown some dominant strikeout stuff thus far this season after an injury shortened 2017.
2018 (16 IP)
.294 LH 0.00 HR/9 28.6% K 7.1% BB
.322 RH 1.93 HR/9 35.9% K 5.1% BB
Career (2017 shortened by injury) (.259 wOBA Home .298 wOBA Road)
.294 LH 0.84 HR/9 26.5% K 7.0% BB
.262 RH 0.69 HR/9 30.5% K 3.8% BB
Quick Breakdown:
The Brewers will likely only have three LH bats in their lineup and have six batters in their lineup that K at a 20%+ rate including three that top 27%. The Brewers have the 5th lowest implied run total of the day and the Mets are one of the largest favorites on the slate. Syndergaard is affordably priced on both sites and is an excellent way to pivot away from the top arms of the slate. With weather concerns potentially knocking out arms like Kluber, Severino, and Strasburg, I like him a lot as a top GPP option.
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.299 | 0.269 | 0.123 | 35.3% | 5.9% | 29.6% | 57.6% | 2B | $2,100 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $5,900 |
| 2 | Eric Thames | LEFT | 0.394 | 0.368 | 0.303 | 43.9% | 14.7% | 27.5% | 37.4% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $9,000 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.328 | 0.199 | 35.3% | 7.2% | 22.0% | 50.8% | OF | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,300 |
| 4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.373 | 0.359 | 0.244 | 39.0% | 10.7% | 21.4% | 42.2% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,400 |
| 5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.349 | 0.212 | 37.4% | 11.1% | 29.8% | 46.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,000 | RF | $5,800 |
| 6 | Hernan Perez | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.288 | 0.167 | 28.9% | 4.6% | 17.7% | 47.9% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,900 | IF/OF | $5,900 |
| 7 | Manny Pina | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.309 | 0.171 | 31.0% | 6.7% | 20.2% | 35.6% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.288 | 0.144 | 30.6% | 5.8% | 18.3% | 51.6% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,600 |
| 9 | Jhoulys Chacin | RIGHT | 0.194 | 0.172 | 0.026 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 62.5% | P | $5,500 | P | $5,700 | P | $11,100 |
There’s not much to like from Milwaukee’s side. Syndergaard has been dinged up a little by the long ball to RH bats this season, but that sample size is very small. Eric Thames has great power numbers against RHP, but I’m not paying $4,900 for him on DraftKings in this matchup. Domingo Santana might strike out four times against Syndergaard, but he’s capable of hitting a long one against him as well. Not saying to play him, just saying it’s possible.
Then again, it’s also possible that I’ll win the PowerBall this week.
Right?
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (FanDuel)
Stackability – RED
NY Mets
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.421 | 0.398 | 0.295 | 39.8% | 15.6% | 21.9% | 37.4% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $9,200 |
| 2 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.320 | 0.345 | 0.174 | 36.1% | 9.8% | 16.0% | 40.5% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $3,900 | SS | $7,500 |
| 3 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.347 | 0.232 | 39.7% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 35.1% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,400 |
| 4 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.368 | 0.399 | 0.269 | 41.8% | 10.3% | 21.1% | 33.0% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,700 |
| 5 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.340 | 0.139 | 36.2% | 7.8% | 16.5% | 35.6% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $6,700 |
| 6 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.348 | 0.168 | 30.5% | 14.9% | 21.7% | 37.4% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,200 |
| 7 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.234 | 0.122 | 22.9% | 1.9% | 32.1% | 51.0% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,500 |
| 8 | Jose Lobaton | SWITCH | 0.248 | 0.344 | 0.136 | 32.9% | 10.9% | 24.4% | 50.7% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,200 | C | $3,900 |
| 9 | Noah Syndergaard | RIGHT | 0.240 | 0.250 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 47.1% | 60.0% | P | $10,700 | P | $10,500 | P | $20,700 |
I want to attack Chacin while he looks this bad, but the problem is the weather in New York. The wind is blowing in at nearly 20 MPH, it’ll be between 35 and 40 degrees the entire game, and there is a good chance of precipitation. That’s not the best hitting environment, especially in pitcher friendly Citi Field. That said, I do like the matchup enough to take chances on stacks in GPPs and would not mind using Michael Conforto or Jay Bruce as one off’s in lineups as both have elite power numbers against RHP.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce
Stackability – YELLOW
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET
| Philadelphia | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
 | Ben Lively |  | Ryan Yarbrough | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | ** | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TB -138 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.375 | 0.372 | 29.5% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 41.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.214 | 0.314 | 0.0% | 30.8% | 30.8% | 20.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.314 | 0.288 | 30.0% | 3.9% | 19.2% | 32.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.351 | 0.488 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 23.8% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ben Lively | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $12,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 16 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 28 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 15 | 5.27 | 4.26 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 38.2% | 30.2% | 21.5% | |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.46 | 5.56 | 23.1% | 5.8% | 31.4% | 25.7% | 34.3% | |
Ben Lively takes the mound for the Phillies today in Tampa. He’s been fairly strong against RH hitters this season, but there’s not much to like outside of that.
2018 (11.1 IP)
.407 wOBA LH 1.50 HR/9 19.4% K 6.5% BB
.298 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 28.6% K 4.8% BB
2017
.369 wOBA LH 1.66 HR/9 10.0% K 9.0% BB
.316 wOBA RH .99 HR/9 18.1% K 3.9% BB
Quick Breakdown:
It’s a good matchup for Lively against a weak-hitting Rays team and he has good control and decent enough strikeout potential against RH bats that he’ll likely limit damage and Vegas has the Phillies projected for a modest 4.22 runs. However, the Rays don’t strikeout much – only three top a K rate of 22% and they’ll likely have four LH bats in their lineup, an area where Lively has proven to be vulnerable. I think there are better places you can find your SP2 or value SP today.
| Ryan Yarbrough | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $10,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 28 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0 | 6.08 | 2.25 | 15.4% | 18.0% | 23.1% | 19.2% | 19.2% | |
Ryan Yarbrough is a 26 year old southpaw with a fastball topping out around 90 MPH and an above average change. He has been good in the minors the last two seasons posting a combined 3.21 ERA in 285 innings pitched while striking out 258 batters. He does struggle a bit with control as he gave up 70 walks.
2018 (8 IP)
.214 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 30.8% K 30.8% BB
.349 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 7.7% K 11.5% BB
Quick Breakdown:
I’m not sure why Vegas only has the Phillies projected to score 3.78 runs. I think they top that number quite easily. I have no interest in Yarbrough here, even at under $5.5K on both sites.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.347 | 0.311 | 0.117 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 21.8% | 49.8% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,400 |
| 2 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.352 | 0.396 | 0.218 | 36.4% | 13.3% | 17.3% | 32.5% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,000 |
| 3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.330 | 0.309 | 0.168 | 28.5% | 6.3% | 21.4% | 41.3% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,700 |
| 4 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.433 | 0.400 | 0.329 | 42.1% | 14.0% | 23.1% | 26.3% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,000 | 1B | $10,300 |
| 5 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.342 | 0.203 | 36.0% | 6.2% | 27.7% | 46.6% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,200 | LF | $6,600 |
| 6 | Scott Kingery | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.360 | 0.207 | 38.1% | 6.3% | 28.1% | 33.3% | SS | $3,500 | 3B/SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,700 |
| 7 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.313 | 0.173 | 28.9% | 6.2% | 15.9% | 44.6% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,300 |
| 8 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.416 | 0.349 | 0.250 | 25.0% | 2.1% | 29.5% | 53.3% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,700 |
| 9 | J.P. Crawford | LEFT | 0.294 | 0.296 | 0.111 | 16.7% | 12.8% | 23.3% | 35.8% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
Yarbrough does have a relatively surprising ERA of 2.25, but that’s why that number is so misleading. He has a 15.4% K rate, an 18.0% BB rate and a SIERA of 6.08. I’ll avoid LH bats against him, but give me all the Rhys Hoskins I can have. Carlos Santana is a viable play as well and keep an eye out for the starting lineup. Aaron Altherr is hitting 7th in the lineup and had a .350 wOBA and .266 ISO against LHP last season. He’s just $2,000 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings and is firmly in play as a value option.
Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins
Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Aaron Altherr
Stackability – YELLOW
Tampa Bay
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denard Span | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.339 | 0.177 | 27.5% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 40.9% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,900 |
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.306 | 0.200 | 36.1% | 9.2% | 23.3% | 42.8% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $5,700 |
| 3 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.356 | 0.354 | 0.221 | 41.8% | 8.5% | 29.6% | 38.6% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,700 |
| 4 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.338 | 0.159 | 35.5% | 5.9% | 25.1% | 33.5% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $5,400 |
| 5 | Joey Wendle | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.289 | 0.250 | 33.3% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $4,600 |
| 6 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.311 | 0.129 | 20.8% | 6.1% | 21.2% | 50.0% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $5,900 |
| 7 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.264 | 0.092 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 19.1% | 49.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $5,600 |
| 8 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.330 | 0.175 | 31.7% | 4.9% | 18.0% | 52.5% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,600 |
| 9 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.292 | 0.116 | 35.6% | 3.1% | 19.0% | 50.0% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,900 |
Ben Lively is vulnerable to LH power and we’ll want to target some Tampa bats from that side of the plate. Kevin Kiermaier is dirt cheap, likely batting 2nd, and has a .200 ISO against RHP. He’s an elite option given the matchup and price tag. Denard Span and Joseph Wendle are the two other LH bats that will likely bat in the top five of the batting order and both are viable options by themselves or as part of a team stack.
Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier
Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Joseph Wendle
Stackability – YELLOW
Pittsburgh at Miami – 1:10 PM ET
| Pittsburgh | Miami | ||||||||||||||
 | Ivan Nova |  | Jose Urena | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| PIT-128 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.345 | 0.378 | 33.9% | 4.5% | 11.8% | 43.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.329 | 0.385 | 35.0% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 38.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.321 | 0.317 | 34.5% | 4.8% | 21.1% | 47.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.308 | 0.313 | 28.4% | 7.8% | 20.1% | 48.7% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ivan Nova | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $17,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 14 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 28 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 31 | 4.45 | 4.14 | 16.7% | 4.6% | 45.7% | 34.8% | 16.6% | |
| 2018 | 3 | 4.07 | 5.19 | 17.6% | 5.4% | 41.1% | 28.6% | 10.7% | |
Ivan Nova gets to face the Miami Marlins today and he hasn’t been that good for awhile now.
2018 (17.1 IP)
.184 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 5.6% K 5.6% BB
.506 wOBA RH 3.68 HR/9 29.0% K 5.3% BB
2017
.361 wOBA LH 1.78 HR/9 12.4% K 4.4% BB
.303 wOBA RH 1.10 HR/9 20.4% K 4.8% BB
Quick Breakdown:
The one good thing going for Nova is he gets to face a not very good Marlins offense that has only two LH bats projected in it. The bad news is that he sucks and outside of Lewis Brinson, the Marlins offer very little strikeout upside. When Vegas projects the Marlins to score over four runs in their home park, you know the SP they are facing is pretty, pretty bad. This is a pretty easy avoid for me.
| Jose Urena | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $11,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 24 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 28 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 28 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | 5.19 | 3.82 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 43.1% | 31.8% | 18.6% | |
| 2018 | 3 | 4.22 | 5.06 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 43.5% | 32.6% | 17.4% | |
Jose Urena faces the Pirates today – he’s been smashed thus far this season by LH bats and is just one of those “meh” pitchers that the Marlins often roll out there. Little to no upside, but usually will limit damage in part to the park he pitches in.
2018 (16 IP)
.403 wOBA LH 2.35 HR/9 20.6% K 8.8% BB
.283 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 17.7% K 8.8% BB
2017
.322 wOBA LH 1.32 HR/9 10.9% K 10.0% BB
.310 wOBA RH 1.43 HR/9 20.3% K 7.7% BB
Quick Breakdown:
He doesn’t strike batters out, gives up home runs, and Vegas has Pittsburgh with one of the five highest totals of the day. Another easy spot to avoid for me.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.323 | 0.140 | 33.6% | 5.0% | 16.1% | 34.8% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,400 |
| 2 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.323 | 0.340 | 0.182 | 29.2% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 40.1% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $4,700 | RF | $8,100 |
| 3 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.340 | 0.142 | 27.1% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 47.8% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,200 | CF | $8,000 |
| 4 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.344 | 0.334 | 0.207 | 32.6% | 11.3% | 19.6% | 52.0% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 5 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.336 | 0.225 | 34.3% | 5.8% | 23.0% | 38.3% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,000 | LF | $7,300 |
| 6 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.337 | 0.121 | 32.8% | 11.2% | 19.8% | 47.2% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,600 |
| 7 | Colin Moran | LEFT | 0.409 | 0.465 | 0.189 | 39.4% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 36.4% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,300 |
| 8 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.303 | 0.149 | 27.6% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 47.4% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $5,400 |
| 9 | Ivan Nova | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.072 | 0.000 | 4.2% | 0.0% | 46.7% | 66.7% | P | $7,900 | P | $8,800 | P | $17,000 |
Nova is prone to the long ball from both sides of the plate, but especially to LH bats (1.78 HR/9 last season). Justin Bour and his .248 ISO is an elite play for Miami today with Derek Dietrich and Starlin Castro also worth consideration given their lineup spots and matchup. I wish the Marlins had more power LH bats as I’d love to load up on them, but their projected lineup only has two LH hitters in total.
Elite Plays – Justin Bour
Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Starlin Castro
Stackability – ORANGE
Miami
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Dietrich | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.323 | 0.182 | 33.7% | 7.7% | 20.8% | 36.1% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,000 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
| 2 | Miguel Rojas | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.315 | 0.090 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 52.5% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $2,700 | 2B | $5,700 |
| 3 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.308 | 0.146 | 28.8% | 4.0% | 19.7% | 51.7% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 4 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.397 | 0.248 | 40.2% | 10.8% | 20.2% | 41.4% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $5,400 |
| 5 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.312 | 0.119 | 23.8% | 15.5% | 21.4% | 57.1% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,300 |
| 6 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.295 | 0.156 | 24.7% | 12.9% | 21.7% | 57.1% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,400 |
| 7 | Lewis Brinson | RIGHT | 0.144 | 0.239 | 0.031 | 25.6% | 6.8% | 35.6% | 59.0% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,800 | CF | $5,900 |
| 8 | Bryan Holaday | RIGHT | 0.237 | 0.268 | 0.071 | 15.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 40.0% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,300 | C | $4,700 |
| 9 | Jose Urena | RIGHT | 0.122 | 0.135 | 0.026 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 45.7% | 41.7% | P | $5,900 | P | $5,800 | P | $11,000 |
The Pirates are never a sexy play and going to Miami is usually not a recipe for a big hitting day. Urena can limit damage at times, but he’s still worth attacking with top bats from opposing lineups. For the Pirates that would be the middle four of the order in Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, and Corey Dickerson. I also wouldn’t mind Colin Moran if he is in the starting lineup as he’s been impressive thus far against RHP. Dickerson and Bell are the two bats I’d want the most though.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell
Stackability – YELLOW
Page 3 will be updated on a game-by-game basis. Check back periodically to see the game-by-game analysis