MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-22 02:16:13

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Philadelphia
			Kenta Maeda							Mark Leiter Jr.
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-190							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.306	27.6%	7.2%	17.4%	35.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.320	29.6%	6.8%	22.1%	45.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.278	0.256	29.3%	4.5%	33.2%	39.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.318	26.8%	8.7%	21.9%	51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kenta Maeda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$10,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 22	Salary Rank:		3 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22
	2016	32	3.69	3.48	25.0%	7.0%	43.9%	29.0%	20.0%
	2017	24	3.77	4.21	25.3%	5.9%	37.2%	28.3%	20.3%
	L30	5	3.09	6.26	31.3%	4.2%	29.0%	32.3%	22.6%

There are only two early games on the schedule today, but we like to give you all of the relevant information here in the Grind Down, so let’s quickly go over the Dodgers/Phillies and Indians/Angels games. Like many Dodgers’ pitchers, Maeda has good numbers overall, but he’s not a pitcher that we should count on throwing more than 90 pitches. His recent ERA (6.26) isn’t pretty, but the peripheral stats suggest that he’s been unlucky over his last five games. During that same stretch, he owns a 3.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 4%. He draws a favorable matchup against a strikeout-happy Phillies’ offense and pitching options are obviously limited in a two-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: With question marks surrounding Danny Salazar, Maeda is the safest option of the early only slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mark Leiter Jr.
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 22	Salary Rank:		12 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22

	2017	9	4.06	4.93	22.0%	7.8%	48.5%	28.2%	21.9%
	L30	5	3.41	5.90	24.6%	4.1%	51.2%	27.6%	23.0%

Leiter hasn’t had luck on his side in his first nine major league starts. His peripheral stats are actually pretty solid, especially in his last five outings — 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 4%. He currently owns a 22% HR/FB rate, which should regress closer toward the league average of 10%. The Dodgers used to be an offense that we would auto-fade pitchers against, but that hasn’t been the case over the last month of play. They still have plenty of talent in their lineup, but they are striking out at a high rate, which brings Leiter into consideration as an SP2 in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: We are dealing with limited options here in the early slate. It doesn’t feel great clicking his name, but Leiter has decent strikeout upside against the Dodgers.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers see a ballpark bump and they are facing a pitcher that has allowed a home run on over one-fifth of his fly balls so far this season. While I do expect that number to regress, that doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen immediately. The Dodgers have the highest implied run total of the four teams playing in the early games. Mark Leiter has fairly neutral splits so far in his major league career, allowing a .320 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .318 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.360	0.334	0.210	34.5%	9.1%	25.5%	41.7%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.360	0.386	0.172	44.7%	12.2%	20.9%	41.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.364	0.369	0.157	36.2%	10.4%	11.3%	32.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.392	0.368	0.345	44.6%	13.0%	26.6%	35.9%	1B	$4,200	1B/OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
5	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.377	0.355	0.270	34.9%	9.3%	19.5%	44.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
6	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.333	0.332	0.241	33.8%	15.4%	23.3%	30.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.322	0.290	0.218	38.2%	7.3%	27.7%	41.4%	C	$2,700	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.318	0.323	0.167	37.4%	9.6%	15.6%	44.5%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Kenta Maeda	RIGHT	0.133	0.108	0.034	13.3%	0.0%	9.1%	69.6%	P	$8,400	P	$10,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, Curtis Granderson, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies are large underdogs at home and draw a difficult matchup against Kenta Maeda. He may not throw 100+ pitches in his starts, but when he’s out there, he’s effective. He throw a lot of strikes and induces a lot of soft and medium contact. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 30% strikeout rate. Rhys Hoskins and Nick Williams are intriguing leverage plays off of Maeda in tournaments, but he’s clearly the safest pitching option on the board.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.335	0.301	0.102	20.9%	9.9%	20.5%	49.2%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.310	0.294	0.147	27.9%	8.0%	19.0%	35.2%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.351	0.327	0.204	39.9%	6.3%	27.6%	49.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.450	0.379	0.396	45.3%	13.4%	22.7%	26.7%	1B	$4,400	1B/OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.371	0.319	0.231	36.1%	6.7%	29.2%	40.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
6	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.322	0.306	0.163	27.9%	6.8%	22.2%	41.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.423	0.322	0.220	22.0%	0.0%	29.0%	58.5%	C	$2,900	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.324	0.298	0.100	21.7%	8.8%	23.5%	34.8%	SS	$2,800	3B/SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Mark Leiter Jr.	RIGHT	0.055	0.077	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	47.1%	87.5%	P	$7,000	P	$7,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at LA Angels – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								LA Angels
			Danny Salazar							Parker Bridwell
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-112							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.354	0.357	30.4%	12.4%	26.9%	36.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.344	0.381	39.5%	8.1%	14.7%	32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.291	0.278	21.5%	7.8%	36.5%	41.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.329	31.6%	4.1%	17.6%	40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Danny Salazar
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22
	2016	25	3.86	3.87	27.6%	10.8%	47.8%	33.8%	15.1%
	2017	17	3.49	4.52	32.0%	10.0%	39.3%	25.9%	15.7%
	L30	2	4.39	10.80	21.4%	9.5%	42.9%	21.4%	17.9%

Salazar has made three appearances since being activated from the DL. He failed to make it out of the first inning against the White Sox and was then moved to the bullpen. In two bullpen appearances, he has thrown a total of 46 pitches with three strikeouts over three innings of work. He will get the nod today, but his form and a potential pitch count are both red flags. He hasn’t thrown more than 28 pitches in over a month. You have to think that his ceiling is five innings and that’s only if he’s pitching well. He does have strikeout potential and we do like targeting pitchers in this ballpark, but Salazar is a true wildcard today.

Quick Breakdown: Salazar has bad form and a potential pitch count. That’s not exactly the duo that we are looking for from our pitcher.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Parker Bridwell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 22	Salary Rank:		13 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22
	2016	0	4.53	13.50	20.0%	6.7%	20.0%	54.6%	9.1%
	2017	17	4.88	3.71	16.2%	6.0%	36.9%	35.3%	14.6%
	L30	6	4.66	5.70	18.5%	6.2%	36.1%	36.1%	16.5%

Bridwell may have an ERA under 4.00 on the season, but his peripheral stats suggest some regression. In 17 starts, he has a 4.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a lot of hard contact. While this is a good ballpark for pitchers, Bridwell draws an awful matchup against the Indians, who are ranked third in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. This slate is pretty simple. Kenta Maeda is very much in play against the Phillies, while the other three pitchers are shots in the dark. If you are playing on a multi-pitcher site, I’d maybe suggest playing the all-day slate instead of the two-game slate, because I don’t feel great about any of these SP2s.

Quick Breakdown: Bridwell has a low strikeout rate, potential regression moving forward, and he’s facing a red-hot Indians’ offense.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians have the second highest implied run total of the early slate. They aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark around, but they draw an exploitable matchup against Parker Bridwell. On the season, Bridwell has allowed a .381 xwOBA with a 40% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The Indians just so happen to have a lineup full of lefties that like to feast on right-handed pitching. Even though they are expensive, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, and Jay Bruce are all elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.342	0.343	0.229	31.7%	7.9%	12.5%	40.6%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,600	N/A	N/A
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.311	0.301	0.125	36.4%	8.3%	22.9%	45.9%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.397	0.355	0.274	33.7%	8.2%	10.4%	38.1%	2B	$4,200	2B/3B	$5,600	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.375	0.391	0.264	37.9%	14.1%	19.4%	35.3%	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.374	0.376	0.283	42.8%	9.8%	21.0%	33.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.378	0.394	0.229	37.4%	14.1%	17.5%	31.9%	1B	$3,700	1B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
7	Yandy Diaz	RIGHT	0.276	0.317	0.054	34.3%	7.8%	19.6%	61.6%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.303	0.307	0.193	32.1%	7.0%	20.1%	30.3%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.268	0.259	0.103	23.3%	7.7%	26.2%	39.5%	C	$2,800	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Angels

The Angels draw a boom or bust matchup against Danny Salazar, who was so bad in his first start back from injury that they moved him to the bullpen. When healthy, Salazar is a difficult pitcher to hit, but we don’t know how healthy he truly is and he’s likely going to be on a pitch count anyway. I’m not going to load up on the Angels’ offense here, but Mike Trout and Justin Upton are both viable one-off targets. The Angels have lost three games in a row, but still only trail the Twins by a game and a half for the second wildcard spot in the American League.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.320	0.303	0.138	24.8%	3.2%	11.0%	50.4%	2B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.460	0.433	0.366	38.9%	17.9%	18.7%	33.5%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,700	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.354	0.341	0.223	41.3%	12.2%	30.2%	34.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.293	0.334	0.164	36.6%	5.2%	14.3%	42.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.319	0.329	0.148	31.5%	10.7%	21.4%	42.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.333	0.304	0.159	30.8%	5.3%	10.0%	48.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.320	0.310	0.251	34.7%	11.0%	26.8%	34.4%	3B	$3,100	1B/3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.327	0.347	0.176	36.7%	6.7%	23.8%	31.1%	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.282	0.283	0.173	28.6%	2.2%	25.2%	48.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Baltimore
			Matt Andriese							Gabriel Ynoa
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-114							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.271	0.296	43.0%	8.3%	22.2%	52.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.368	0.349	39.5%	3.9%	13.5%	35.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.392	0.359	39.4%	7.1%	18.1%	42.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.392	41.7%	5.8%	25.0%	27.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Andriese
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:		17 of 22	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		15 of 22
	2016	19	3.90	4.37	20.7%	4.7%	42.9%	34.3%	16.6%
	2017	15	4.47	4.44	19.9%	7.7%	46.3%	41.0%	16.8%
	L30	3	4.79	8.36	15.4%	6.2%	46.0%	42.0%	18.0%

Andriese has not been sharp in his last three starts, posting a 4.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He has one of the highest hard contact rates (41%) of any starting pitcher in baseball this season and he has to go on the road and face the Orioles, who hit as many home runs as any team in baseball. It doesn’t help that Andriese is a reverse-splits pitcher and that the Orioles have a right-handed heavy offense.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Andriese in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gabriel Ynoa
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:		22 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22
	2016	3	4.08	6.38	19.3%	8.0%	49.2%	28.6%	14.3%
	2017	2	4.39	4.18	19.2%	4.8%	32.1%	40.5%	17.7%
	L30	2	4.99	4.09	16.7%	6.3%	30.6%	40.5%	21.6%

Ynoa has been serviceable this season, posting a 4.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. Unfortunately, he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. We know that the Rays can strikeout at a high rate, but they also have plenty of power when facing a right-handed pitching. This game could provide some fireworks, especially since it’s being played in Camden Yards. With the total set at 10.0 runs, both pitchers are easy fades tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ynoa in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays just might be my favorite stack in the slate. They see a ballpark bump playing in Baltimore, they are the visiting team (which guarantees ninth innings at-bats), they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, and they are dirt cheap. You can stack the Rays and still have plenty of salary to spend up on pitcher or on expensive one-off hitters. In terms of splits, Gabriel Ynoa has allowed a .349 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .392 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.364	0.292	0.217	34.5%	8.6%	21.3%	44.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,200
2	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.352	0.348	0.260	36.4%	12.2%	30.1%	42.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.330	0.314	0.167	33.2%	5.3%	14.5%	42.1%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
4	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.369	0.375	0.310	44.1%	13.3%	24.9%	27.7%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.274	0.302	0.170	32.7%	3.5%	18.2%	48.2%	C	$2,200	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.335	0.319	0.224	36.1%	6.6%	23.8%	37.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,600
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.278	0.295	0.122	33.7%	3.4%	19.7%	49.7%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
8	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.287	0.320	0.118	37.1%	18.0%	27.6%	50.0%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.307	0.255	0.096	21.3%	9.6%	19.3%	51.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,400

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Steve Souza, Lucas Duda, Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

In boxing, styles make fights. That sort of true in baseball as well. While we have been able to target right-handed pitchers against the Orioles at times this season, Matt Andriese is a reverse-splits pitcher. On the season, he has allowed a .359 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to batters from the right side of the plate. Baltimore should have at least seven righties in their lineup and we know that they lead the majors in home runs hit (227) this season. An Orioles’ stack is viable here, as is a full game stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.338	0.313	0.180	39.7%	5.5%	29.0%	48.1%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,800
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.332	0.359	0.212	37.1%	7.9%	16.7%	43.4%	3B	$3,500	3B	$5,100	3B	$10,000
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.351	0.309	0.196	33.8%	4.1%	19.9%	41.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.339	0.310	0.193	30.6%	3.3%	17.7%	44.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.373	0.351	0.244	35.6%	6.3%	22.3%	52.4%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.322	0.331	0.247	44.1%	12.1%	36.1%	37.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
7	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.288	0.299	0.161	30.5%	7.5%	24.9%	42.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
8	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.325	0.329	0.206	37.0%	5.6%	25.8%	42.2%	C	$2,900	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
9	Austin Hays	RIGHT	0.204	0.217	0.000	14.3%	8.3%	33.3%	85.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,200

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Toronto
			Jason Vargas							J.A. Happ
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-147							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.343	0.318	29.4%	6.5%	13.0%	39.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.253	0.265	21.3%	3.0%	17.8%	55.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.325	0.325	34.2%	7.4%	18.4%	39.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.303	28.8%	8.7%	23.0%	43.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jason Vargas
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		14 of 22	Salary Rank:		10 of 22
	2016	3	3.96	2.25	23.4%	6.4%	36.4%	33.3%	15.2%
	2017	29	4.88	4.19	17.4%	7.2%	39.1%	33.1%	18.0%
	L30	6	5.45	7.81	14.3%	8.7%	40.6%	38.5%	16.7%

Vargas was a regression candidate earlier in the season and we’ve seen that come to fruition over the last couple of months. In his last six starts, he has a 7.81 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. His SIERA for the season is now much closer to his ERA. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Blue Jays, who have a right-handed heavy lineup and some serious firepower in Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak. Vargas is one of the easiest fades of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Vargas in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		10 of 22	Salary Rank:		8 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22
	2016	32	4.28	3.18	20.5%	7.5%	42.5%	31.6%	17.8%
	2017	23	4.23	3.76	22.1%	7.7%	46.0%	27.3%	20.8%
	L30	5	4.58	3.30	20.0%	8.5%	46.7%	24.7%	22.6%

Happ is one of those pitchers that I rarely target in DFS, but he’s not someone that I like to stack against either. He doesn’t do anything great, but he has an above-average strikeout rate, good command, and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. While I like his chances to pick up the win tonight, he may give up a few runs in the process. The Royals have some good right-handed hitters in their lineup and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any offense in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Happ over Vargas, but will likely be avoiding both southpaws tonight in Globe Life Park.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals made quick work of Brett Anderson last night and they didn’t stop after that. Their ownership tonight could be a little inflated in tournaments. While they do see a ballpark bump playing in Toronto, tonight’s matchup isn’t nearly as enticing. J.A. Happ has an above-average strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.363	0.328	0.234	31.9%	6.8%	14.5%	38.2%	2B	$4,100	2B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	0.330	0.212	40.4%	9.9%	14.5%	41.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.320	0.191	32.5%	5.5%	14.4%	45.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,400
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.328	0.299	0.143	24.8%	5.9%	14.4%	62.2%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.312	0.379	0.230	40.8%	4.4%	19.1%	31.1%	C	$3,000	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
6	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.315	0.287	0.196	28.8%	2.8%	14.7%	41.9%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
7	Jorge Bonifacio	RIGHT	0.287	0.328	0.192	37.3%	5.5%	26.4%	38.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,600
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.307	0.284	0.124	28.3%	4.6%	14.5%	41.7%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.286	0.335	0.056	22.7%	8.3%	16.7%	51.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,000	LF	$6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Another night, another letdown for the Blue Jays’ offense. Hopefully, everyone listened and avoided the stack last night. While I still don’t trust this offense as far as I can throw them, I love their matchup against Jason Vargas. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a lot of hard contact. He’s also struggled with his command recently and has given up some really big outings to his opponents. I hate to say it, but I actually have interest in a Toronto stack here. All of the righties are in play in this matchup and they are actually affordable across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.080	0.172	0.000	28.6%	0.0%	36.4%	28.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,400
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.410	0.398	0.338	41.1%	16.5%	17.6%	39.3%	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,500	3B	$10,800
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.442	0.427	0.257	37.9%	13.4%	11.8%	35.8%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
4	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.275	0.257	0.137	23.0%	11.2%	26.6%	48.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,600
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.407	0.372	0.231	42.9%	6.3%	21.4%	58.2%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.390	0.347	0.224	29.6%	6.8%	13.7%	37.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.274	0.335	0.121	32.5%	16.7%	26.4%	30.8%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
8	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.270	0.254	0.043	14.9%	8.7%	22.2%	48.8%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,300	2B	$6,400
9	Richard Urena	SWITCH	0.376	0.431	0.000	50.0%	15.4%	23.1%	12.5%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200

Elite Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Kevin Pillar, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Detroit
			Adalberto Mejia							Jordan Zimmermann
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-110							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.355	28.6%	5.6%	23.9%	46.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.384	0.356	42.3%	6.0%	15.6%	29.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.350	0.344	33.6%	10.8%	18.0%	38.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.375	0.345	35.7%	6.5%	12.9%	36.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Adalberto Mejia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:		20 of 22	Salary Rank:		16 of 22
	2016	0	7.02	7.71	0.0%	7.7%	33.3%	41.7%	8.3%
	2017	19	4.97	4.62	19.0%	9.9%	39.6%	32.8%	19.7%
	L30	1	4.72	9.00	21.4%	0.0%	18.2%	45.5%	9.1%

Mejia has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on this season. He has a SIERA close to 5.00, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Is it just me, or does it seem like the Tigers have a favorable matchup every single night? The Twins are slight favorites here, but the total is set at 10.0 runs. We can expect a shootout in this one, which makes both pitchers easy fades in cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mejia tonight against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		20 of 22	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:		17 of 22
	2016	18	4.81	4.87	14.7%	5.8%	43.1%	27.3%	18.5%
	2017	27	5.26	6.18	14.2%	6.2%	33.1%	38.9%	14.0%
	L30	3	5.88	9.00	6.6%	2.6%	38.2%	40.6%	14.5%

Zimmermann is another pitcher that I love to stack against. In 27 starts this season, he has a 5.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14%. He is one of the few pitchers in baseball that has a higher hard contact rate (39%) than ground ball rate (33%). The Twins should be able to tee off against him. Even though they are still missing some pieces offensively, Minnesota is one of the top offenses to target tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Zimmermann in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins will likely be popular tonight, but for good reason. Jordan Zimmermann is one of the best pitchers to stack against in baseball. He gives up a lot of hard contact, a lot of home runs, and he isn’t particularly good at holding runners. The Twins’ stack has paid off in good spots this season and I expect that to be the case again tonight. Batters from both sides of the plate are viable, as Zimmermann has allowed a .356 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .345 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. My pitching selections have been off the last two nights, but I’ve hit on the right offenses to target. For me, it’s all about the Rays and Twins tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.324	0.311	0.196	32.5%	9.5%	20.4%	39.1%	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,200	2B	$10,200
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.354	0.390	0.130	40.5%	12.1%	13.2%	50.2%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.310	0.284	0.152	26.6%	8.9%	14.6%	39.0%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.383	0.345	0.273	33.2%	7.3%	17.0%	38.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,300
5	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.302	0.269	0.178	27.4%	6.0%	30.4%	40.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,900	CF	$9,600
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.354	0.326	0.217	36.0%	9.2%	16.3%	41.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
7	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.325	0.317	0.216	33.8%	6.1%	20.1%	34.0%	3B	$3,100	3B/SS	$4,900	SS	$9,600
8	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.304	0.313	0.153	34.2%	12.5%	29.5%	40.6%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
9	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.334	0.341	0.166	29.6%	13.7%	19.3%	39.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,400

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are thought of as a team that has given up on the season. While that may be true, I don’t understand the narrative that you can’t target them in DFS. They are cheap and they have had a string of exploitable matchups. If you look at their projected lineup below, seven of their starters have an ISO over .200 against left-handed pitching this season. All of the righties are in play here, as is a full Tigers’ stack. Much like the Rays/Orioles game, you can stack both sides of this one and hope for a shootout with these two subpar pitchers on the mound.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.381	0.383	0.278	45.3%	9.9%	10.7%	24.2%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.404	0.328	0.200	36.4%	5.9%	23.5%	27.3%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,800
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.398	0.418	0.170	46.4%	15.3%	22.5%	36.2%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.394	0.397	0.323	43.8%	6.6%	16.2%	41.0%	OF	$4,100	3B/OF	$4,400	3B	$8,400
5	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.305	0.327	0.236	40.0%	6.8%	33.9%	50.0%	C	$2,000	1B/C	$3,200	C	$6,400
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.413	0.455	0.284	41.8%	8.5%	15.1%	35.4%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
7	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.337	0.347	0.224	43.5%	4.1%	19.5%	41.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.239	0.220	0.212	33.3%	2.9%	51.4%	40.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,800
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.279	0.285	0.083	23.8%	4.5%	5.6%	45.6%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 21st

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, Curtis Granderson, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at LA Angels – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Steve Souza, Lucas Duda, Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Kevin Pillar, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, John Hicks, Mikie Mahtook

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author