MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 23rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Houston at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
| Houston | Pittsburgh |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| HOU -120 | 8.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.316 | 1 | 34.5% | 20.5% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.374 | 17 | 36.1% | 11.3% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.315 | 3 | 35.9% | 27.3% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.324 | 17 | 33.2% | 21.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Joe Musgrove |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $7,500 |
| FPPG: | 29.8 | FPPG: | 16.4 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 74.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 7 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 3 | 118.7 | 3.33 | 4.18 | 24.5% | 3.2% | 9.6% | 41.2% | 38.2% | 35.3% |
| 2016 | 3 | 118.7 | 3.33 | 4.18 | 24.5% | 3.2% | 9.6% | 41.2% | 38.2% | 35.3% |
Musgrove has gotten progressively worse in his first four major league appearances. He was knocked around by the Orioles in his last start, allowing eight earned runs in just over five innings of work. If anything, I’m glad that he was knocked around in his last outing, because it lowered his price (and potentially his ownership) for tonight’s start against the Pirates. Musgrove is a young pitcher that may struggle with consistency, but there is no arguing his upside. He has a 24.5% strikeout rate in the majors this season and he had a 29.4% strikeout rate in the minors. He is one of the best values tonight, as I have him ranked as the seventh best pitching option in the slate.
| Ivan Nova |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $6,700 |
| FPPG: | 22.0 | FPPG: | 10.3 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 49.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 21 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 78.4 | 4.10 | 4.55 | 18.8% | 4.3% | 10.0% | 42.0% | 34.1% | 44.9% |
| 2016 | 18 | 94.4 | 4.01 | 4.83 | 17.8% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 52.0% | 29.2% | 36.8% |
| 2015 | 17 | 89.9 | 4.58 | 5.07 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 49.0% | 31.7% | 32.3% |
Nova doesn’t have the upside that we typically look for in a pitcher. In 18 starts this season, he has a 4.01 SIERA (4.83 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 17.8%. He does get to face a right-handed heavy lineup of the Astros, but he comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog at home. It’s hard to justify playing Nova when you have an underpriced high-strikeout pitcher to target in the same game. I will be avoiding Nova against the Astros, who have the 12th best team wOBA over the last month of play.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros are small favorites tonight against in Pittsburgh. Even though they see a negative ballpark shift, this is still an exploitable matchup. In the last two seasons, Nova has allowed a .374 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Nova gives up a lot of hard contact, which has led to 34 home runs allowed in his last 35 starts. Keep your eye on where bats tonight. He is off to a nice start in the majors and had a .377 wOBA at Triple-A before getting called up.
- Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.8% (28 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.59 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.37 (17 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.169 | 0.495 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,700 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.259 | 0.130 | 0.388 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,900 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.166 | 0.484 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $5,500 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.212 | 0.394 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,800 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.304 | 0.154 | 0.378 | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,300 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.182 | 0.385 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $2,400 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.195 | 0.446 | C | $2,600 | C | $3,600 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.099 | 0.250 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,900 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | | | | P | $6,500 | P | $7,500 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.322 | 0.163 | 0.403 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – YELLOW
Pittsburgh
The Pirates forgot to show up last night against and the Astros. They will look to bounce back tonight, although they draw a difficult matchup against the talented, young . On paper, this is not a great spot for the Pirates, as they have a right-handed heavy lineup that is facing a right-handed pitcher with a high strikeout rate. deserves consideration in all league formats, but the rest of the offense should be relegated to GPPs.
- Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.310 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.97 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.54 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (19 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.102 | 0.312 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,100 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.152 | 0.253 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,700 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.182 | 0.394 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,000 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.163 | 0.233 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.145 | 0.310 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B/3B | $3,300 |
| 6 | | SWITCH | 0.643 | 0.600 | 0.176 | 1B | $2,200 | OF | $2,300 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.079 | 0.469 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,000 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.078 | 0.260 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,700 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.293 | P | $6,700 | P | $6,700 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.346 | 0.167 | 0.300 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Washington at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Washington | Baltimore |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| BAL -142 | 9.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.256 | 2 | 24.3% | 27.6% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.287 | 12 | 29.0% | 25.1% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.408 | 0 | 21.4% | 22.7% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.362 | 28 | 29.6% | 20.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Reynaldo Lopez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $5,800 |
| FPPG: | 34.3 | FPPG: | 17.3 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 60.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 13 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 3 | 97.7 | 4.75 | 2.50 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 36.7% | 49.0% | 16.0% |
| 2016 | 4 | 99.5 | 4.04 | 4.37 | 25.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 38.1% | 42.9% | 23.1% |
Lopez is coming off of his best major league start, striking out 11 batters in seven innings of work against the Braves. He is a top pitching prospect, so it was good to see him finally dominate at the major league level. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Orioles, who just put up 11 runs against another top prospect in . While the Orioles do strikeout at a high rate, they also have the highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The risk outweighs the potential reward for Lopez tonight.
| Kevin Gausman |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $7,800 |
| FPPG: | 29.2 | FPPG: | 15.5 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 73.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 8 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 102.0 | 3.87 | 4.28 | 28.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 37.2% | 38.4% | 31.0% |
| 2016 | 22 | 101.9 | 3.81 | 4.11 | 23.8% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 42.1% | 35.9% | 31.0% |
| 2015 | 17 | 110.4 | 3.69 | 4.25 | 21.9% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 44.4% | 38.1% | 27.4% |
Gausman has pitched well this season, posting a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.8%. He does allow a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters, but he has been very tough on lefties. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite, but the over/under is set at 9.5 runs. These are two of the best offenses in baseball and they are squaring off in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Given the fact that we have a full slate on tap tonight, I see Gausman as a deep GPP flier at best.
Batter Grind Down
Washington
The Nationals come into tonight’s game with the 12th highest team total in the slate. They see a nice ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they get to utilize the DH with this game being played in Baltimore. They draw a decent matchup against , who has some extreme reverse-splits. In the last two seasons, Gausman has allowed a .362 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while holding lefties to a .287 wOBA.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (11 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.337 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.88 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.50 (12 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.237 | 0.366 | SS | $3,900 | 2B/OF | $4,700 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.136 | 0.398 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,900 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.380 | 0.229 | 0.381 | 2B | $4,200 | 1B/2B | $5,200 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.432 | 0.294 | 0.511 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,300 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.148 | 0.209 | C | $3,300 | C | $3,600 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.164 | 0.533 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,500 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.155 | 0.408 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,200 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.302 | 0.159 | 0.199 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $2,800 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.081 | 0.304 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,100 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.334 | 0.178 | 0.368 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Baltimore
The Orioles didn’t have as big of an offensive outing as a lot of us were expecting last night, but they scored four runs, which was just enough to hold off the Nationals. They come into tonight’s game with one of the highest run projections in the slate, as they square off against rookie . The sample size is obviously small, but Lopez has really struggled with right-handed hitters in his first four major league starts. An Orioles’ stack is in play in all league formats.
- Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (2 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.312 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.202 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.71 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.00 (3 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.212 | 0.343 | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,900 |
| 2 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.387 | 0.125 | 0.304 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.248 | 0.330 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B/SS | $4,800 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.225 | 0.315 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $5,300 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.309 | 0.409 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $5,100 |
| 6 | | SWITCH | 0.314 | 0.156 | 0.305 | C | $2,500 | C | $3,700 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.221 | 0.322 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,400 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.255 | 0.298 | 3B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,900 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.123 | 0.307 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,400 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.350 | 0.208 | 0.326 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , Hyun-Soo Kim,
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
LA Angels at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
| LA Angels | Toronto |
| | | |
| LEFT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| TOR -146 | 9.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.364 | 0 | 30.4% | 17.2% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.312 | 23 | 24.1% | 14.2% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.338 | 3 | 24.1% | 24.7% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.329 | 28 | 28.7% | 16.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Tyler Skaggs |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $8,400 |
| FPPG: | 25.2 | FPPG: | 12.3 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 54.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 19 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 92.0 | 4.06 | 5.19 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 36.3% | 35.0% | 25.9% |
| 2016 | 5 | 92.0 | 4.06 | 5.19 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 36.3% | 35.0% | 25.9% |
Skaggs got off to a hot start this season, but has cooled off in his last three appearances. He currently owns a 5.19 REA with a strikeout rate of 22.9%. He draws one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule tonight, as he has to face the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. On the season, Toronto is ranked ninth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching. Skaggs doesn’t induce enough ground balls, which could be troublesome against this team in this ballpark.
| R.A. Dickey |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,500 |
| FPPG: | 25.0 | FPPG: | 11.5 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 46.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 25 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 92.8 | 4.96 | 6.48 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 38.7% | 34.7% | 26.3% |
| 2016 | 25 | 96.2 | 4.82 | 4.51 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 43.1% | 35.2% | 30.6% |
| 2015 | 33 | 98.9 | 4.76 | 3.91 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 41.9% | 37.2% | 23.9% |
Dickey may be a sizable favorite here, but he doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration in daily fantasy. In 25 starts this season, he has a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.4%. To make matters worse, he is facing an Angels’ offense that has the least number of strikeouts of any team in baseball. Los Angeles may not have the most potent offense, but they should be able to make good contact against Dickey. Both of these pitchers can be avoided in what is expected to be a high scoring game.
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels are ranked 19th in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching, but they come into tonight’s game with a slightly above-average run projection. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre and they draw a favorable matchup against , who has allowed a .312 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. During that stretch, Dickey has also given up 51 home runs.
- Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.296 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.139 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.9% (1 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.69 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.44 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.48 (13 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.158 | 0.333 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,000 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.416 | 0.279 | 0.368 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,200 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.199 | 0.265 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $3,500 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.198 | 0.196 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,800 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.158 | 0.246 | 3B | $2,700 | 1B/3B | $3,000 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.070 | 0.187 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,300 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.208 | 0.264 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,400 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.168 | 0.208 | C | $2,300 | C | $2,900 |
| 9 | | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.115 | 0.270 | SS | $2,000 | 2B/SS | $2,500 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.321 | 0.173 | 0.260 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
The Blue Jays project to be a popular stack tonight in both cash games and tournaments. They come into the game with the second highest run projection in the slate. They hit left-handed pitching well as a team and they get to face the struggling at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. In his five starts this season, Skaggs has allowed a .364 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Give a boost to anyone with speed in this lineup, as Skaggs has already allowed nine stolen bases this season (which is basically one every three innings).
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.331 (7 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.312 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.172 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.0% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.86 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.81 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.02 (2 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.165 | 0.320 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,400 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.423 | 0.287 | 0.288 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $4,700 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.260 | 0.441 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $4,900 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.417 | 0.314 | 0.256 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,200 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.194 | 0.433 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,600 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.106 | | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,100 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.244 | 0.351 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,400 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.305 | 0.177 | 0.233 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $2,400 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.266 | 0.116 | 0.235 | C | $2,100 | C | $2,100 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.352 | 0.207 | 0.320 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – (DK), , ,
Secondary Plays – (FD), ,
Stackability – GREEN
Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET
| Boston | Tampa Bay |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| TB -120 | 8.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.315 | 9 | 27.4% | 19.4% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.281 | 19 | 32.3% | 28.7% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.308 | 14 | 25.5% | 18.2% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.296 | 23 | 33.3% | 28.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Clay Buchholz |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,000 |
| FPPG: | 12.7 | FPPG: | 5.7 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 48.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 22 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 2 | 76.0 | 5.05 | 3.66 | 12.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 36.7% | 40.0% | 24.6% |
| 2016 | 15 | 100.9 | 5.29 | 5.42 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 40.8% | 42.1% | 29.2% |
| 2015 | 18 | 95.3 | 3.35 | 3.26 | 22.8% | 4.9% | 10.6% | 48.3% | 30.5% | 23.7% |
Buchholz is not having a good season. In 15 starts, he has a 5.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.4%. While a matchup against the Rays is appealing, it’s hard to justify targeting Buchholz in any type of league format. The upside hasn’t been there and run support could be an issue with pitching opposite him. The Rays may have the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but you have to think that they’ll be able to make good contact against Buchholz. There are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.
| Chris Archer |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $9,800 | Salary: | $8,900 |
| FPPG: | 34.4 | FPPG: | 18.7 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 86.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 100.0 | 2.75 | 2.67 | 30.0% | 3.9% | 12.8% | 51.3% | 31.3% | 31.8% |
| 2016 | 26 | 102.7 | 3.54 | 4.18 | 27.8% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 46.0% | 34.0% | 33.5% |
| 2015 | 34 | 101.4 | 3.08 | 3.23 | 29.0% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 46.1% | 33.9% | 32.2% |
Archer is one of the more intriguing plays on the board tonight. He has been in impeccable form over the last month of play, posting a 2.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3.9%. His command issues seem to be a thing of the past and he does have some nice starts against Boston in his career. The downside is that he has to face the best offense in baseball, but he is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he is pitching at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It could end up costing me, but I see Archer as a viable play in both cash games and tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox continue to be a dominant force offensively. They are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and first in runs scored per game. They come into tonight’s game with the eighth lowest implied team total on the board. Not only do they draw a difficult matchup against , but they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. is worth a look as a one-off target for tournaments. He is 13-of-34 against Archer in his career with four doubles and three home runs.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.351 (1 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.331 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.189 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.50 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.88 (23 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.143 | 0.378 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,800 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.118 | 0.247 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,600 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.428 | 0.340 | 0.543 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,800 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.216 | 0.457 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,100 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.153 | 0.403 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,700 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.276 | 0.310 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,800 |
| 7 | | SWITCH | 0.341 | 0.134 | 0.570 | C | $2,800 | C | $2,900 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.182 | 0.184 | 3B | $2,700 | 1B/3B | $3,300 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.222 | 0.380 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $2,800 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.360 | 0.198 | 0.386 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Tampa Bay
The Rays may be favored tonight, but they have a below-average run projection. Their offense has actually been better than most people realize against right-handed pitching, ranking third in team ISO on the season. Despite the low team total, they draw a favorable matchup against , who has allowed a .374 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.
- Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (16 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.329 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.193 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.7% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.23 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.12 (20 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.139 | 0.480 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,900 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.178 | 0.358 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.200 | 0.481 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,800 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.236 | 0.487 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $5,200 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.128 | 0.305 | SS | $2,700 | 3B | $3,200 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.182 | 0.291 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,200 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.168 | 0.318 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,800 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.345 | 0.268 | 0.331 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,500 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.236 | 0.108 | 0.397 | C | $2,400 | C | $2,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.321 | 0.179 | 0.383 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Kansas City at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Miami |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| MIA -105 | 7.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.318 | 21 | 32.4% | 21.7% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.376 | 22 | 37.3% | 19.3% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.303 | 13 | 30.6% | 19.1% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.313 | 12 | 27.4% | 20.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Yordano Ventura |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $8,100 |
| FPPG: | 26.3 | FPPG: | 13.0 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 62.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 11 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 102.0 | 4.38 | 3.08 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 53.4% | 31.1% | 40.0% |
| 2016 | 24 | 94.0 | 4.69 | 4.46 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 49.8% | 31.8% | 33.3% |
| 2015 | 28 | 94.7 | 3.69 | 4.08 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 52.2% | 27.2% | 29.8% |
Ventura has been in better form recently, but that’s not saying much when you compare it to his form earlier in the season. In his last five starts, he has a 4.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.2% and a walk rate of 10.3%. There are some encouraging signs though, starting with his velocity. In his last start, his fastball averaged 98 MPH, which was the highest of any of his outings this season. I still like a bit more overall, but Ventura is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park.
| Andrew Cashner |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $4,100 |
| FPPG: | 20.2 | FPPG: | 9.5 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 59.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 14 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 94.2 | 5.20 | 5.27 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 47.1% | 34.1% | 46.5% |
| 2016 | 20 | 88.1 | 4.69 | 4.92 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 47.2% | 34.1% | 35.2% |
| 2015 | 31 | 100.3 | 4.00 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 47.4% | 29.9% | 30.2% |
Cashner comes into tonight’s game in bad form, posting a 5.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16% in his last five starts. He has yet to make an impact for the Marlins, but he has a chance to do just that tonight against the Royals. On the season, Kansas City is ranked 27th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. If comparing the two pitchers in this game, I still prefer . However, both carry some GPP appeal in this ballpark.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals have one of the lowest implied team totals on the board, which says a lot more about the state of their offense than it does about . Kansas City has had one of the worst offenses in baseball and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better. Even though their team total is low, I do like and in this matchup. Over the last two seasons, Cashner has allowed a .376 wOBA and 22 home runs to left-handed hitters.
- Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (27 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.290 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.127 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.77 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.99 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.72 (26 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.130 | 0.261 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.144 | 0.316 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,500 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.115 | 0.364 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,100 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.178 | 0.305 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,000 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.192 | 0.237 | C | $3,000 | C | $3,700 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.166 | 0.516 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $5,000 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.061 | 0.333 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,700 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.243 | 0.122 | 0.228 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $2,600 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.219 | 0.000 | | P | $8,300 | P | $8,100 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.298 | 0.123 | 0.320 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Miami
The Marlins come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest run projection in the slate. They have been a better offense than the Royals, but they are without their best hitter in . was a great matchup earlier in the season, but he is trending upward, which makes this a tough spot to target any of the Marlins’ hitters. and are decent plays, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
- Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.317 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.26 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.78 (25 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.075 | 0.270 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,000 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.100 | 0.347 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,300 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.178 | 0.329 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,500 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.142 | 0.252 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,900 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.123 | 0.329 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,700 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.268 | 0.046 | 0.311 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,200 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.093 | 0.358 | | | 1B | $2,300 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.079 | 0.224 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,300 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.112 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $5,900 | P | $4,100 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.287 | 0.093 | 0.269 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
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