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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 23rd

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Houston at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Houston Pittsburgh
houstonmlb Joe Musgrove pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU -120 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.316 1 34.5% 20.5% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.374 17 36.1% 11.3%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.315 3 35.9% 27.3% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.324 17 33.2% 21.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Musgrove
joseph-musgrove-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,500
FPPG: 29.8 FPPG: 16.4
Pitcher Rating: 74.8 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 3 118.7 3.33 4.18 24.5% 3.2% 9.6% 41.2% 38.2% 35.3%
2016 3 118.7 3.33 4.18 24.5% 3.2% 9.6% 41.2% 38.2% 35.3%

Musgrove has gotten progressively worse in his first four major league appearances. He was knocked around by the Orioles in his last start, allowing eight earned runs in just over five innings of work. If anything, I’m glad that he was knocked around in his last outing, because it lowered his price (and potentially his ownership) for tonight’s start against the Pirates. Musgrove is a young pitcher that may struggle with consistency, but there is no arguing his upside. He has a 24.5% strikeout rate in the majors this season and he had a 29.4% strikeout rate in the minors. He is one of the best values tonight, as I have him ranked as the seventh best pitching option in the slate.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,700
FPPG: 22.0 FPPG: 10.3
Pitcher Rating: 49.9 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 78.4 4.10 4.55 18.8% 4.3% 10.0% 42.0% 34.1% 44.9%
2016 18 94.4 4.01 4.83 17.8% 5.1% 9.1% 52.0% 29.2% 36.8%
2015 17 89.9 4.58 5.07 15.3% 8.0% 7.8% 49.0% 31.7% 32.3%

Nova doesn’t have the upside that we typically look for in a pitcher. In 18 starts this season, he has a 4.01 SIERA (4.83 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 17.8%. He does get to face a right-handed heavy lineup of the Astros, but he comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog at home. It’s hard to justify playing Nova when you have an underpriced high-strikeout pitcher to target in the same game. I will be avoiding Nova against the Astros, who have the 12th best team wOBA over the last month of play.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are small favorites tonight against Ivan Nova in Pittsburgh. Even though they see a negative ballpark shift, this is still an exploitable matchup. In the last two seasons, Nova has allowed a .374 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Nova gives up a lot of hard contact, which has led to 34 home runs allowed in his last 35 starts. Keep your eye on where Teoscar Hernandez bats tonight. He is off to a nice start in the majors and had a .377 wOBA at Triple-A before getting called up.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.338 0.169 0.495 OF $4,000 OF $4,700
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.259 0.130 0.388 3B $3,200 3B $3,900
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.359 0.166 0.484 2B $4,000 2B $5,500
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.366 0.212 0.394 SS $3,800 SS $4,800
5 A.J. Reed LEFT 0.304 0.154 0.378 1B $2,600 1B $3,300
6 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.353 0.182 0.385 OF $3,000 OF $2,400
7 Jason Castro LEFT 0.321 0.195 0.446 C $2,600 C $3,600
8 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.275 0.099 0.250 OF $2,300 OF $2,900
9 Joe Musgrove RIGHT P $6,500 P $7,500
Team Averages 0.322 0.163 0.403

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, A.J. Reed, Teoscar Hernandez

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates forgot to show up last night against Doug Fister and the Astros. They will look to bounce back tonight, although they draw a difficult matchup against the talented, young Joe Musgrove. On paper, this is not a great spot for the Pirates, as they have a right-handed heavy lineup that is facing a right-handed pitcher with a high strikeout rate. Gregory Polanco deserves consideration in all league formats, but the rest of the offense should be relegated to GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.293 0.102 0.312 2B $3,100 2B $3,100
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.350 0.152 0.253 OF $3,700 OF $4,700
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.353 0.182 0.394 OF $3,400 OF $4,000
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.333 0.163 0.233 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.326 0.145 0.310 1B $2,800 1B/3B $3,300
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.643 0.600 0.176 1B $2,200 OF $2,300
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.324 0.079 0.469 C $2,800 C $3,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.272 0.078 0.260 SS $2,400 SS $2,700
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.219 0.000 0.293 P $6,700 P $6,700
Team Averages 0.346 0.167 0.300

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Baltimore
washingtonmlb Reynaldo Lopez baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -142 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.256 2 24.3% 27.6% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.287 12 29.0% 25.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.408 0 21.4% 22.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.362 28 29.6% 20.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Reynaldo Lopez
reynaldo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,800
FPPG: 34.3 FPPG: 17.3
Pitcher Rating: 60.5 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 3 97.7 4.75 2.50 22.1% 11.7% 10.9% 36.7% 49.0% 16.0%
2016 4 99.5 4.04 4.37 25.5% 9.8% 11.3% 38.1% 42.9% 23.1%

Lopez is coming off of his best major league start, striking out 11 batters in seven innings of work against the Braves. He is a top pitching prospect, so it was good to see him finally dominate at the major league level. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Orioles, who just put up 11 runs against another top prospect in Joe Musgrove. While the Orioles do strikeout at a high rate, they also have the highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The risk outweighs the potential reward for Lopez tonight.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,800
FPPG: 29.2 FPPG: 15.5
Pitcher Rating: 73.2 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 102.0 3.87 4.28 28.5% 11.1% 10.3% 37.2% 38.4% 31.0%
2016 22 101.9 3.81 4.11 23.8% 6.6% 10.8% 42.1% 35.9% 31.0%
2015 17 110.4 3.69 4.25 21.9% 6.2% 10.9% 44.4% 38.1% 27.4%

Gausman has pitched well this season, posting a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.8%. He does allow a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters, but he has been very tough on lefties. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite, but the over/under is set at 9.5 runs. These are two of the best offenses in baseball and they are squaring off in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Given the fact that we have a full slate on tap tonight, I see Gausman as a deep GPP flier at best.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals come into tonight’s game with the 12th highest team total in the slate. They see a nice ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they get to utilize the DH with this game being played in Baltimore. They draw a decent matchup against Kevin Gausman, who has some extreme reverse-splits. In the last two seasons, Gausman has allowed a .362 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while holding lefties to a .287 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.366 0.237 0.366 SS $3,900 2B/OF $4,700
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.294 0.136 0.398 OF $3,500 OF $3,900
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.380 0.229 0.381 2B $4,200 1B/2B $5,200
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.432 0.294 0.511 OF $4,000 OF $5,300
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.312 0.148 0.209 C $3,300 C $3,600
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.291 0.164 0.533 1B $2,800 1B $3,500
7 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.330 0.155 0.408 3B $3,200 3B $4,200
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.302 0.159 0.199 SS $3,100 SS $2,800
9 Ben Revere LEFT 0.296 0.081 0.304 OF $2,500 OF $3,100
Team Averages 0.334 0.178 0.368

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles didn’t have as big of an offensive outing as a lot of us were expecting last night, but they scored four runs, which was just enough to hold off the Nationals. They come into tonight’s game with one of the highest run projections in the slate, as they square off against rookie Reynaldo Lopez. The sample size is obviously small, but Lopez has really struggled with right-handed hitters in his first four major league starts. An Orioles’ stack is in play in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.347 0.212 0.343 OF $3,800 OF $4,900
2 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.387 0.125 0.304 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.383 0.248 0.330 3B $3,800 3B/SS $4,800
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.346 0.225 0.315 OF $3,500 OF $5,300
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.382 0.309 0.409 1B $3,600 1B $5,100
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.314 0.156 0.305 C $2,500 C $3,700
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.357 0.221 0.322 2B $3,200 2B $4,400
8 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.349 0.255 0.298 3B $3,300 1B $4,900
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.282 0.123 0.307 SS $2,200 SS $3,400
Team Averages 0.350 0.208 0.326

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Angels at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

LA Angels Toronto
laangelsmlb Tyler Skaggs torontomlb R.A. Dickey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -146 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.364 0 30.4% 17.2% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.312 23 24.1% 14.2%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.338 3 24.1% 24.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.329 28 28.7% 16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Skaggs
tyler-skaggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $8,400
FPPG: 25.2 FPPG: 12.3
Pitcher Rating: 54.9 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 92.0 4.06 5.19 22.9% 7.6% 7.0% 36.3% 35.0% 25.9%
2016 5 92.0 4.06 5.19 22.9% 7.6% 7.0% 36.3% 35.0% 25.9%

Skaggs got off to a hot start this season, but has cooled off in his last three appearances. He currently owns a 5.19 REA with a strikeout rate of 22.9%. He draws one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule tonight, as he has to face the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. On the season, Toronto is ranked ninth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching. Skaggs doesn’t induce enough ground balls, which could be troublesome against this team in this ballpark.

R.A. Dickey
r.a.-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,500
FPPG: 25.0 FPPG: 11.5
Pitcher Rating: 46.7 Pitcher Rank: 25
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 92.8 4.96 6.48 19.1% 11.3% 15.3% 38.7% 34.7% 26.3%
2016 25 96.2 4.82 4.51 17.4% 8.9% 10.8% 43.1% 35.2% 30.6%
2015 33 98.9 4.76 3.91 14.3% 6.9% 9.1% 41.9% 37.2% 23.9%

Dickey may be a sizable favorite here, but he doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration in daily fantasy. In 25 starts this season, he has a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.4%. To make matters worse, he is facing an Angels’ offense that has the least number of strikeouts of any team in baseball. Los Angeles may not have the most potent offense, but they should be able to make good contact against Dickey. Both of these pitchers can be avoided in what is expected to be a high scoring game.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels are ranked 19th in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching, but they come into tonight’s game with a slightly above-average run projection. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre and they draw a favorable matchup against R.A. Dickey, who has allowed a .312 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. During that stretch, Dickey has also given up 51 home runs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.326 0.158 0.333 OF $3,200 OF $3,000
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.416 0.279 0.368 OF $4,100 OF $5,200
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.326 0.199 0.265 1B $3,600 1B $3,500
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.339 0.198 0.196 1B $3,100 1B $4,800
5 Jefry Marte RIGHT 0.285 0.158 0.246 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,000
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.290 0.070 0.187 SS $2,200 SS $2,300
7 Nick Buss RIGHT 0.330 0.208 0.264 OF $2,200 OF $2,400
8 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.291 0.168 0.208 C $2,300 C $2,900
9 Cliff Pennington SWITCH 0.288 0.115 0.270 SS $2,000 2B/SS $2,500
Team Averages 0.321 0.173 0.260

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron, Jefry Marte

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays project to be a popular stack tonight in both cash games and tournaments. They come into the game with the second highest run projection in the slate. They hit left-handed pitching well as a team and they get to face the struggling Tyler Skaggs at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. In his five starts this season, Skaggs has allowed a .364 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Give a boost to anyone with speed in this lineup, as Skaggs has already allowed nine stolen bases this season (which is basically one every three innings).

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.330 0.165 0.320 2B $3,300 2B $3,400
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.423 0.287 0.288 3B $4,200 3B $4,700
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.371 0.260 0.441 1B $4,000 1B $4,900
4 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.417 0.314 0.256 OF $3,100 OF $3,200
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.373 0.194 0.433 SS $3,200 SS $3,600
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.309 0.106 OF $2,700 OF $3,100
7 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.373 0.244 0.351 OF $3,300 OF $4,400
8 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.305 0.177 0.233 1B $3,000 1B $2,400
9 Josh Thole LEFT 0.266 0.116 0.235 C $2,100 C $2,100
Team Averages 0.352 0.207 0.320

Elite Plays – Devon Travis (DK), Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis (FD), Michael Saunders, Melvin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
bostonmlb Clay Buchholz tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -120 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.315 9 27.4% 19.4% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.281 19 32.3% 28.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.308 14 25.5% 18.2% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.296 23 33.3% 28.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clay Buchholz
clay-buchholz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 12.7 FPPG: 5.7
Pitcher Rating: 48.9 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 2 76.0 5.05 3.66 12.0% 5.3% 7.4% 36.7% 40.0% 24.6%
2016 15 100.9 5.29 5.42 14.4% 9.5% 9.2% 40.8% 42.1% 29.2%
2015 18 95.3 3.35 3.26 22.8% 4.9% 10.6% 48.3% 30.5% 23.7%

Buchholz is not having a good season. In 15 starts, he has a 5.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.4%. While a matchup against the Rays is appealing, it’s hard to justify targeting Buchholz in any type of league format. The upside hasn’t been there and run support could be an issue with Chris Archer pitching opposite him. The Rays may have the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but you have to think that they’ll be able to make good contact against Buchholz. There are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $8,900
FPPG: 34.4 FPPG: 18.7
Pitcher Rating: 86.4 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 100.0 2.75 2.67 30.0% 3.9% 12.8% 51.3% 31.3% 31.8%
2016 26 102.7 3.54 4.18 27.8% 8.4% 12.0% 46.0% 34.0% 33.5%
2015 34 101.4 3.08 3.23 29.0% 7.6% 12.8% 46.1% 33.9% 32.2%

Archer is one of the more intriguing plays on the board tonight. He has been in impeccable form over the last month of play, posting a 2.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3.9%. His command issues seem to be a thing of the past and he does have some nice starts against Boston in his career. The downside is that he has to face the best offense in baseball, but he is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he is pitching at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It could end up costing me, but I see Archer as a viable play in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox continue to be a dominant force offensively. They are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and first in runs scored per game. They come into tonight’s game with the eighth lowest implied team total on the board. Not only do they draw a difficult matchup against Chris Archer, but they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. David Ortiz is worth a look as a one-off target for tournaments. He is 13-of-34 against Archer in his career with four doubles and three home runs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.353 0.143 0.378 2B $3,300 2B $3,800
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.332 0.118 0.247 SS $3,300 SS $3,600
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.428 0.340 0.543 1B $3,900 1B $4,800
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.369 0.216 0.457 OF $4,000 OF $5,100
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.313 0.153 0.403 1B $3,400 1B $3,700
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.376 0.276 0.310 OF $3,600 OF $3,800
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.341 0.134 0.570 C $2,800 C $2,900
8 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.329 0.182 0.184 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,300
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.400 0.222 0.380 OF $3,000 OF $2,800
Team Averages 0.360 0.198 0.386

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – David Ortiz, Sandy Leon

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays may be favored tonight, but they have a below-average run projection. Their offense has actually been better than most people realize against right-handed pitching, ranking third in team ISO on the season. Despite the low team total, they draw a favorable matchup against Clay Buchholz, who has allowed a .374 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.331 0.139 0.480 2B $3,700 2B $4,900
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.320 0.178 0.358 OF $3,100 OF $3,700
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.337 0.200 0.481 3B $3,600 3B $4,800
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.358 0.236 0.487 SS $3,500 SS $5,200
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.328 0.128 0.305 SS $2,700 3B $3,200
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.315 0.182 0.291 1B $2,900 1B $3,200
7 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.317 0.168 0.318 OF $2,900 OF $3,800
8 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.345 0.268 0.331 OF $3,100 OF $3,500
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.236 0.108 0.397 C $2,400 C $2,600
Team Averages 0.321 0.179 0.383

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Miami
kansascitymlb Yordano Ventura miamimlb Andrew Cashner
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -105 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.318 21 32.4% 21.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.376 22 37.3% 19.3%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.303 13 30.6% 19.1% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.313 12 27.4% 20.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yordano Ventura
yordano-ventura-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,100
FPPG: 26.3 FPPG: 13.0
Pitcher Rating: 62.7 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 102.0 4.38 3.08 21.2% 10.3% 10.8% 53.4% 31.1% 40.0%
2016 24 94.0 4.69 4.46 18.0% 9.5% 9.0% 49.8% 31.8% 33.3%
2015 28 94.7 3.69 4.08 22.5% 8.4% 10.4% 52.2% 27.2% 29.8%

Ventura has been in better form recently, but that’s not saying much when you compare it to his form earlier in the season. In his last five starts, he has a 4.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.2% and a walk rate of 10.3%. There are some encouraging signs though, starting with his velocity. In his last start, his fastball averaged 98 MPH, which was the highest of any of his outings this season. I still like Joe Musgrove a bit more overall, but Ventura is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park.

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,100
FPPG: 20.2 FPPG: 9.5
Pitcher Rating: 59.7 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.2 5.20 5.27 16.0% 10.9% 7.4% 47.1% 34.1% 46.5%
2016 20 88.1 4.69 4.92 18.1% 9.0% 7.2% 47.2% 34.1% 35.2%
2015 31 100.3 4.00 4.34 20.5% 8.2% 8.2% 47.4% 29.9% 30.2%

Cashner comes into tonight’s game in bad form, posting a 5.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16% in his last five starts. He has yet to make an impact for the Marlins, but he has a chance to do just that tonight against the Royals. On the season, Kansas City is ranked 27th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. If comparing the two pitchers in this game, I still prefer Yordano Ventura. However, both carry some GPP appeal in this ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have one of the lowest implied team totals on the board, which says a lot more about the state of their offense than it does about Andrew Cashner. Kansas City has had one of the worst offenses in baseball and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better. Even though their team total is low, I do like Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon in this matchup. Over the last two seasons, Cashner has allowed a .376 wOBA and 22 home runs to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.303 0.130 0.261 OF $2,900 OF $3,700
2 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.309 0.144 0.316 3B $3,100 3B $3,500
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.316 0.115 0.364 OF $3,400 OF $4,100
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.366 0.178 0.305 1B $3,100 1B $4,000
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.324 0.192 0.237 C $3,000 C $3,700
6 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.329 0.166 0.516 OF $2,800 OF $5,000
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.270 0.061 0.333 SS $2,500 SS $3,700
8 Raul Mondesi SWITCH 0.243 0.122 0.228 2B $2,400 2B $2,600
9 Yordano Ventura RIGHT 0.219 0.000 P $8,300 P $8,100
Team Averages 0.298 0.123 0.320

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest run projection in the slate. They have been a better offense than the Royals, but they are without their best hitter in Giancarlo Stanton. Yordano Ventura was a great matchup earlier in the season, but he is trending upward, which makes this a tough spot to target any of the Marlins’ hitters. Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich are decent plays, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.321 0.075 0.270 2B $3,300 2B $4,000
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.308 0.100 0.347 3B $3,000 3B $3,300
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.377 0.178 0.329 OF $3,200 OF $4,500
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.303 0.142 0.252 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.321 0.123 0.329 C $2,800 C $3,700
6 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.268 0.046 0.311 OF $2,800 OF $3,200
7 Xavier Scruggs RIGHT 0.300 0.093 0.358 1B $2,300
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.272 0.079 0.224 SS $2,200 SS $2,300
9 Andrew Cashner RIGHT 0.112 0.000 0.000 P $5,900 P $4,100
Team Averages 0.287 0.093 0.269

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious