MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 31st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Houston at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET
Houston | Arizona |
| | | |
RIGHT | LEFT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
HOU -125 | 9.0 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 3 | 28.8% | 8.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 2 | 30.8% | 6.9% |
SP vs. Right | 0.321 | 8 | 22.2% | 10.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.342 | 17 | 16.8% | 5.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Lance McCullers |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $7,700 |
FPPG: | 32.7 | FPPG: | 16.8 |
Pitcher Rating: | 72.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 10 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 100.0 | 4.09 | 2.45 | 35.4% | 18.8% | 15.5% | 59.1% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
2016 | 3 | 96.3 | 4.29 | 4.60 | 30.0% | 17.1% | 12.8% | 56.8% | 24.3% | 32.4% |
2015 | 22 | 95.9 | 3.57 | 3.22 | 24.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 46.5% | 31.8% | 28.9% |
McCullers is a volatile pitcher that is going to have great outings at times and he is going to get shelled at other times. In his first 25 major league starts, he has a 3.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate right around 25%. The biggest issue has been his command, walking 17.1% of the batters that he has faced this season. There will be a time to buy low on McCullers, but that time is not today against the Diamondbacks. Not only is Arizona a top ten offense against right-handed pitching, but he has to face them in the pitcher-friendly Chase Field.
Patrick Corbin |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $8,100 |
FPPG: | 21.3 | FPPG: | 10.6 |
Pitcher Rating: | 56.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 21 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 99.0 | 3.99 | 4.50 | 23.1% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 58.8% | 23.5% | 38.2% |
2016 | 10 | 93.9 | 4.29 | 4.21 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 52.3% | 29.5% | 39.9% |
2015 | 16 | 78.4 | 3.44 | 3.60 | 21.9% | 4.8% | 10.8% | 46.9% | 29.5% | 31.5% |
Corbin hasn’t been as effective this season, but he still sports a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.8%. His swinging strike rate is down and he is giving up hard contact at a very high rate of 39.9%. Despite Houston’s numbers this season, yesterday was a great example of why we don’t like targeting lefties against the Astros. Their lineup is filled with right-handed hitters that absolutely mash left-handed pitching. Corbin is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
We are only two months into the season and like the Blue Jays, sometimes sample size can be an issue when comparing offensive statistics. Given the makeup of their lineup, the Astros should be one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. , , , , and all bat right-handed and all have a .188+ ISO against southpaws over the last two seasons. That bodes well for their matchup against in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.
- Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.305 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.150 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 26.6% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.06 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.65 (4 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.405 | 0.227 | 0.374 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,800 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.423 | 0.188 | 0.282 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $5,100 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.217 | 0.204 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $4,400 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.183 | 0.219 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,600 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.286 | 0.363 | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,900 |
6 | | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.206 | 0.142 | 1B | $2,600 | 1B/3B | $3,100 |
7 | | LEFT | 0.226 | 0.065 | 0.330 | C | $3,000 | C | $2,600 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.201 | 0.290 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,100 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | | P | $8,300 | P | $7,700 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.296 | 0.175 | 0.276 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – Cash & GPP
Arizona
The Diamondbacks are ranked ninth in runs scored per game and they have the ninth highest team total on the board. They draw a boom or bust matchup against , who can be great, but can also struggle at times. The sample size is still relatively small, but McCullers has been a reverse-splits pitcher over the last two seasons – allowing a .321 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
- Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.7% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.60 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.35 (9 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.099 | 0.238 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $4,300 |
2 | | LEFT | 0.272 | 0.048 | 0.425 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,400 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.403 | 0.247 | 0.474 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $5,000 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.174 | 0.417 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,200 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.179 | 0.196 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,900 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.096 | 0.388 | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,400 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.106 | 0.183 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,100 |
8 | | LEFT | 0.261 | 0.053 | 0.440 | P | $7,000 | P | $8,100 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.248 | 0.112 | 0.321 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $2,500 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.299 | 0.124 | 0.342 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – GPP
San Diego at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET
San Diego | Seattle |
| | | |
RIGHT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
SEA -180 | 7.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.364 | 25 | 20.1% | 10.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.311 | 9 | 20.1% | 4.7% |
SP vs. Right | 0.297 | 15 | 28.4% | 7.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.302 | 16 | 20.7% | 5.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
James Shields |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $9,800 |
FPPG: | 32.0 | FPPG: | 17.1 |
Pitcher Rating: | 58.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 19 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 105.0 | 3.19 | 2.84 | 24.5% | 3.8% | 10.5% | 44.7% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
2016 | 10 | 100.2 | 4.08 | 3.06 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 48.1% | 31.5% | 31.0% |
2015 | 33 | 101.1 | 3.72 | 3.91 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 44.9% | 34.4% | 31.2% |
There are two camps when it comes to Shields. One sees his high strikeout rate and is hoping that he will turn things around and the other sees his high walk rate and high home run rate and avoids him at all costs in DFS. Unless the matchup is too good to pass up, I tend to favor the second camp. Over his last two seasons, Shields has allowed 40 home runs in 43 starts. To make matters worse, the difference between his ERA and SIERA actually suggests some negative regression moving forward. I’m not a fan of him today against a left-handed heavy Mariners’ lineup.
Hisashi Iwakuma |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $9,200 |
FPPG: | 27.7 | FPPG: | 13.5 |
Pitcher Rating: | 86.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 5 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 96.0 | 4.25 | 4.15 | 18.9% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 31.6% | 39.5% | 27.5% |
2016 | 10 | 94.2 | 4.31 | 4.33 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 40.4% | 35.8% | 26.9% |
2015 | 20 | 93.4 | 3.36 | 3.54 | 21.5% | 4.1% | 10.6% | 50.4% | 31.1% | 26.9% |
Iwakuma seems to be coming around. His statistics don’t leap off the page at us, but he doesn’t walk many batters and he has a strikeout rate right above 20% over the last two seasons. Iwakuma may be the happiest pitcher in all of baseball today, as he gets to face the Padres. Not only is San Diego ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, but they have one of the highest strikeout rates in the majors. If you are playing the early-only or the all-day slate, you can certainly anchor your lineups with Iwakuma.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
The Padres scored two runs yesterday, so do we consider their offense to be in good form? It’s rare that we see a team that is ranked in the bottom five in all of the offensive categories listed below. Even though has been in mediocre form this season, there is no reason to target any Padres today.
- Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.272 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.126 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.3% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.67 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (29 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.284 | 0.093 | 0.336 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,200 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.179 | 0.284 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,600 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.174 | 0.221 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,000 |
4 | | SWITCH | 0.334 | 0.167 | 0.409 | 3B | $3,600 | 2B/3B | $3,100 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.159 | 0.225 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,400 |
6 | | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.215 | 0.374 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/3B | $2,800 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.140 | 0.277 | C | $2,400 | C | $2,800 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.099 | 0.228 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $2,500 |
9 | | LEFT | 0.242 | 0.082 | 0.165 | SS | $2,300 | 2B/SS | $2,300 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.302 | 0.145 | 0.280 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Stackability – NONE
Seattle
The Mariners have quietly been humming offensively. They average the seventh most runs per game and they are ranked fifth in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. has been good against right-handed hitters, but he is one of the best pitchers in baseball to target left-handed hitters against. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .364 wOBA and 25 home runs to lefties.
- Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.338 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.71 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (12 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.323 | 0.117 | 0.309 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,000 |
2 | | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.187 | 0.352 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,000 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.218 | 0.412 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $4,700 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.226 | 0.437 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,100 |
5 | | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.189 | 0.391 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $3,400 |
6 | | LEFT | 0.355 | 0.195 | 0.415 | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,300 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.322 | 0.485 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $2,800 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.246 | 0.125 | 0.135 | C | $2,000 | C | $2,100 |
9 | | SWITCH | 0.199 | 0.000 | 0.293 | SS | $2,200 | 3B/SS | $2,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.325 | 0.175 | 0.359 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – Cash & GPP
Texas at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET
Texas | Cleveland |
| | | |
RIGHT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
CLE -170 | 7.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.326 | 18 | 14.4% | 5.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.318 | 14 | 24.5% | 6.5% |
SP vs. Right | 0.304 | 18 | 19.3% | 4.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 13 | 29.7% | 4.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Colby Lewis |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $7,100 |
FPPG: | 30.3 | FPPG: | 15.7 |
Pitcher Rating: | 47.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 26 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 91.0 | 4.95 | 4.50 | 14.6% | 2.1% | 7.1% | 23.1% | 51.3% | 47.5% |
2016 | 10 | 95.8 | 4.40 | 3.38 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 34.4% | 45.1% | 39.1% |
2015 | 33 | 96.4 | 4.43 | 4.66 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 33.7% | 44.2% | 33.3% |
Lewis’s start was pushed back to today. As I mentioned before his last outing, regression was eventually going to hit at some point this season. A .273 BABIP and a left on-base percentage of 83.6% is not sustainable for Lewis. He then went out and gave up six runs to the Angels in only five innings of work. Lewis can be effective at times, but his strikeout rate isn’t high enough to deserve fantasy consideration. As a large underdog on the board, he can be avoided in all league formats.
Corey Kluber |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | $10,400 |
FPPG: | 36.5 | FPPG: | 20.3 |
Pitcher Rating: | 90.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 105.5 | 2.85 | 1.88 | 25.9% | 5.2% | 11.4% | 61.5% | 25.6% | 30.0% |
2016 | 10 | 97.6 | 3.30 | 3.78 | 24.8% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 52.5% | 31.5% | 29.7% |
2015 | 32 | 102.3 | 2.98 | 3.49 | 27.7% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 42.4% | 35.9% | 27.0% |
The Kloobs has been in excellent form coming into tonight’s start. If you look at the pitching table above, every single box is blue and green. In his first ten starts this season, he owns a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.8%. He has a lethal combination of a high strikeout rate, a high swinging strike rate, and a high ground ball rate. The Rangers are one of the toughest teams to strikeout in baseball, but I usually don’t factor that in as much with an elite pitcher like Kluber. He is the best pitching option in the early slate and I have him ranked third of the 30 pitchers taking the mound in the all-day slate.
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers have one of the worst matchups on the board. In addition to a high strikeout rate, has held left-handed hitters to a .318 wOBA and right-handed hitters to a .242 wOBA. With the fourth lowest run projection of the 30 teams playing today, the Rangers can be avoided in all league formats.
- Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.5% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.60 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.34 (27 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | SWITCH | 0.423 | 0.200 | 0.333 | 2B | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,700 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.149 | 0.406 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $3,700 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.356 | 0.145 | 0.310 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,200 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.146 | 0.345 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $3,400 |
5 | | LEFT | 0.398 | 0.241 | 0.435 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,500 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.082 | 0.332 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $2,900 |
7 | | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.215 | 0.194 | OF | $3,200 | 1B | $3,000 |
8 | | LEFT | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.226 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,000 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.096 | 0.413 | C | $2,300 | C | $3,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.324 | 0.142 | 0.333 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Stackability – NONE
Cleveland
The Indians’ team total of 4.16 runs seems a bit low. They have an excellent matchup against , who has allowed 36 home runs over his last 43 starts. Lewis has also allowed a .326 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .304 wOBA to right-handed hitters during that stretch.
- Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.85 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.16 (17 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | SWITCH | 0.346 | 0.221 | 0.363 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,600 |
2 | | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.171 | 0.273 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,500 |
3 | | SWITCH | 0.335 | 0.138 | 0.370 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,900 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.174 | 0.333 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $3,500 |
5 | | SWITCH | 0.313 | 0.142 | 0.358 | P | $4,000 | 3B/OF | $3,400 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.131 | 0.355 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $2,700 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.182 | 0.209 | C | $2,900 | C | $3,600 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.198 | 0.397 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,400 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.160 | 0.418 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.319 | 0.169 | 0.342 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – Cash & GPP
Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
Boston | Baltimore |
| | | |
LEFT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
BAL -120 | 9.0 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.350 | 7 | 19.8% | 4.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 6 | 25.4% | 6.5% |
SP vs. Right | 0.292 | 6 | 18.4% | 8.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.361 | 17 | 18.6% | 5.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Eduardo Rodriguez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $6,100 |
FPPG: | 29.7 | FPPG: | 0.0 |
Pitcher Rating: | 49.0 | Pitcher Rank: | 25 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
2015 | 21 | 95.7 | 4.16 | 3.85 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 43.0% | 33.4% | 31.4% |
Rodriguez is making his first start of the season. In 21 starts in 2015, he posted a 4.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.8%. He has never shown massive strikeout potential and that’s unlikely to change in the majors. He does have an electric fastball, but he checks in as an underdog against the Orioles in a game that features a high total of 9.0 runs. With a full slate on tap, we don’t need to look to Rodriguez in cash games or GPPs tonight.
Kevin Gausman |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $6,800 |
FPPG: | 27.3 | FPPG: | 15.5 |
Pitcher Rating: | 59.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 15 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 108.0 | 2.88 | 3.86 | 26.5% | 4.1% | 13.0% | 50.0% | 26.5% | 20.6% |
2016 | 7 | 101.1 | 3.69 | 3.24 | 21.6% | 5.3% | 11.6% | 46.7% | 35.2% | 26.8% |
2015 | 17 | 110.4 | 3.69 | 4.25 | 21.9% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 44.4% | 38.1% | 27.4% |
Gausman is off to a nice start this season, posting a 3.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.6%. My favorite statistic with Gausman is the fact that he is averaging over 107 pitches per start over the last two seasons. The Orioles don’t mind leaving him out there if he is pitching well. I point that out more as a reminder moving forward though, because I am certainly not recommending him tonight against the Red Sox. Boston has been on an absolute tear over the last few weeks.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox average more runs per game than any team in baseball. They also have the highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching. I don’t love the matchup against , but they do get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Gausman is a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .361 wOBA and 17 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. is looking to extend his hitting streak to 24 games tonight.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.359 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.189 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.6% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.90 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (8 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.191 | 0.404 | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,400 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.155 | 0.395 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $4,500 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.115 | 0.444 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $5,100 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.431 | 0.346 | 0.517 | 1B | $4,800 | 1B | $5,500 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.141 | 0.262 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,000 |
6 | | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.271 | 0.470 | OF | $4,500 | OF | $4,400 |
7 | | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.201 | 0.293 | 3B | $3,900 | 1B/3B | $3,900 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.241 | 0.095 | 0.214 | C | $2,300 | C | $3,000 |
9 | | SWITCH | 0.320 | 0.136 | 0.356 | C | $2,500 | C/OF | $3,300 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.343 | 0.183 | 0.373 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – GPP
Baltimore
The Orioles have the eighth highest team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s contest with the fifth highest team total on the board. pitched fairly well in his rookie season, but he is still inexperienced at the major league level. All of the right-handed hitters from this lineup are in play tonight.
- Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.304 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.173 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.0% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.62 (5 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.214 | 0.245 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,200 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.181 | 0.362 | SS | $4,200 | 3B/SS | $4,900 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.158 | 0.163 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.197 | 0.255 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $3,800 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.280 | 0.339 | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,800 |
6 | | SWITCH | 0.291 | 0.129 | 0.481 | C | $3,200 | C | $3,600 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.104 | 0.295 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $2,800 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.344 | 0.145 | 0.294 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,000 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.148 | 0.043 | 0.188 | | | SS | $2,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.307 | 0.161 | 0.291 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – GPP
Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
Washington | Philadelphia |
| | | |
RIGHT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
WAS -115 | 7.0 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.343 | 5 | 16.7% | 10.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.298 | 7 | 18.0% | 7.4% |
SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 6 | 24.1% | 3.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 9 | 28.1% | 3.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Joe Ross |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $8,500 |
FPPG: | 26.1 | FPPG: | 13.5 |
Pitcher Rating: | 77.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 8 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 103.0 | 3.23 | 2.13 | 21.2% | 5.8% | 11.7% | 59.5% | 18.9% | 29.0% |
2016 | 9 | 93.6 | 4.21 | 2.52 | 18.6% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 46.2% | 30.4% | 25.9% |
2015 | 13 | 88.7 | 3.66 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 11.9% | 49.8% | 33.8% | 30.2% |
Ross has a 2.52 ERA on the season, but we can expect a little regression moving forward. The good news is that tonight he gets to face a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 28th in team wOBA, 27th in team ISO, and 20th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. If Ross can pitch around the left-handed hitters in this lineup, he will have a good chance to post 6+ strikeouts and potentially pick up a win. He is one of the better values on the board tonight.
Aaron Nola |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $10,600 |
FPPG: | 39.3 | FPPG: | 22.5 |
Pitcher Rating: | 85.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 6 |
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 97.0 | 3.38 | 2.77 | 20.7% | 5.2% | 12.4% | 57.5% | 22.5% | 28.6% |
2016 | 10 | 95.0 | 2.77 | 2.86 | 26.8% | 4.6% | 10.5% | 56.3% | 24.1% | 22.5% |
2015 | 13 | 85.9 | 3.66 | 3.59 | 21.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 47.6% | 32.4% | 28.8% |
Nola is an exciting, young pitcher to watch. In his first ten starts of the season, he has a 2.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.8%. He produces an elite ground ball rate and he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. He may be a small underdog tonight against the Nationals, but the upside is still there. Washington is ranked 22nd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I want to say that Nola is a better GPP target, but you can even given him a look in cash games.
Batter Grind Down
Washington
The Nationals are a below-average offense against right-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s game with the seventh lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against , who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA over the last two seasons.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.25 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.59 (24 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.076 | 0.300 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,100 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.276 | 0.124 | 0.304 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,000 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.459 | 0.343 | 0.268 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,700 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.212 | 0.423 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $3,900 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.178 | 0.403 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,300 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.114 | 0.468 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $3,800 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.137 | 0.334 | C | $3,300 | C | $3,100 |
8 | | SWITCH | 0.294 | 0.156 | 0.239 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,300 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.122 | 0.026 | 0.000 | P | $8,100 | P | $8,500 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.304 | 0.152 | 0.304 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – NONE
Philadelphia
The Phillies are an easy offense to avoid, especially when there is a game being played in Coors Field. On the season, they are ranked 28th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. The one area to potentially attack this matchup is with the left-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, has allowed a .343 wOBA to batters from that side of the plate.
- Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.287 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.20 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.41 (25 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.137 | 0.294 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,700 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.071 | 0.243 | 2B | $2,200 | 2B | $2,600 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.186 | 0.304 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,400 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.292 | 0.369 | 1B | $2,000 | 1B | $3,400 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.125 | 0.407 | C | $2,600 | C | $2,600 |
6 | | SWITCH | 0.297 | 0.124 | 0.373 | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,100 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.145 | 0.379 | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,300 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.122 | 0.029 | 0.000 | P | $8,900 | P | $10,600 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.245 | 0.115 | 0.243 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,600 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.280 | 0.136 | 0.290 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays –
Stackability – NONE
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