MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-24 01:33:05

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Oakland at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland								Baltimore
			Daniel Gossett							Dylan Bundy
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-180							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.321	21.8%	8.2%	12.7%	54.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.331	0.333	34.0%	8.1%	17.1%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.382	37.4%	3.2%	18.9%	36.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	0.309	30.6%	8.1%	24.9%	34.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Daniel Gossett
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	10	4.64	5.17	16.0%	5.5%	44.8%	30.1%	16.7%
	L30	3	4.69	3.78	20.6%	9.6%	38.0%	23.5%	7.8%

The day slates seem to be getting smaller and smaller each week. On a typical Wednesday, we usually have five or six early games, but there are only two on the schedule today. Sean Manaea was originally scheduled to make today’s start, but it looks like Gossett will be on the mound for the A’s instead. Gossett was never a top pitching prospect as he made his way up through the ranks, but he had a great ability to get better at each and every level. He’s been in slightly better form over his last three starts, so maybe he can develop into a back of the rotation type of pitcher. As for his appeal today, he is an easy fade in a road start against the Orioles, who have the highest implied total of any team on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Continue to take a wait and see approach with Gossett.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	14	4.23	4.02	21.9%	8.9%	35.9%	28.0%	23.6%
	2017	23	4.65	4.17	20.3%	7.5%	32.3%	35.9%	17.8%
	L30	4	3.73	4.10	26.9%	6.5%	35.2%	40.3%	12.5%

When you play these small two-game slates, you are going to be uncomfortable with some of your selections. That’s just the way it works when there are only four teams to select players from. Bundy would ordinarily be way overpriced, but looking at the other options in the slate, he’s the cream of the crop. He has flashed some form in his last five outings, posting a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. While the A’s have more power in their lineup than they did earlier in the year, they still strikeout at a high clip. Eight of their nine projected starters have a strikeout rate above 20% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is a large favorite and has the best strikeout potential of any pitcher in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

If you want to be contrarian in the early slate, you can take a pitcher from the other game and look to target a few A’s hitters against Dylan Bundy, who figures to be the chalkiest play on the board. This certainly isn’t a bad matchup for the A’s, as they see a sizable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards. Since the start of last season, Bundy has allowed a .333 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. He is also a fly-ball pitcher that is facing a fly-ball offense in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.342	0.362	0.234	32.3%	13.4%	20.4%	33.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.321	0.318	0.146	26.0%	10.8%	24.8%	37.0%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.346	0.368	0.180	37.2%	9.6%	15.1%	27.2%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.365	0.380	0.301	40.5%	10.1%	31.4%	39.2%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
5	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.291	0.304	0.172	36.5%	3.6%	25.7%	44.9%	1B	$3,500	1B/3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.378	0.348	0.333	42.9%	10.7%	32.0%	46.3%	1B	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.364	0.289	0.324	39.4%	9.8%	31.1%	32.4%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Bruce Maxwell	LEFT	0.292	0.301	0.078	35.6%	13.9%	22.6%	46.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Boog Powell	LEFT	0.260	0.247	0.022	23.5%	11.5%	23.1%	59.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

As mentioned earlier, the Orioles have the highest implied run total of any team on the board today and that includes the 13 games in the main slate. They draw a favorable matchup against the rookie Daniel Gossett, who has allowed a .321 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .382 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. We have a reverse-splits pitcher that is facing a right-handed heavy lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The O’s may have let a lot of people down last night, but we can hop right back on them today against Gossett.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.353	0.320	0.197	43.4%	5.3%	29.7%	47.2%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.332	0.360	0.217	37.2%	7.9%	16.5%	42.2%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,700	N/A	N/A
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.360	0.311	0.211	32.0%	4.5%	20.3%	41.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.333	0.309	0.188	31.1%	3.5%	17.5%	45.1%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.384	0.349	0.268	34.7%	6.6%	23.4%	53.1%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.301	0.315	0.173	31.2%	8.1%	23.7%	42.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.325	0.333	0.243	43.5%	12.7%	34.9%	33.1%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
8	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.327	0.322	0.195	35.5%	6.4%	25.6%	42.0%	C	$3,200	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.348	0.359	0.192	37.4%	9.7%	20.0%	41.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								San Francisco
			Matt Garza							Matt Moore
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -105							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.354	37.1%	10.6%	11.5%	44.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	0.349	32.8%	7.9%	19.8%	40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.299	32.6%	5.6%	18.9%	51.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.326	32.2%	8.7%	20.6%	36.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Garza
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	19	4.60	4.51	15.2%	7.8%	54.8%	34.9%	19.0%
	2017	19	5.19	4.81	15.4%	8.3%	41.3%	34.6%	16.6%
	L30	5	6.15	7.99	13.3%	12.4%	31.6%	37.4%	15.7%

Garza actually got off to a pretty good start this season. When you look at his numbers from the season as a whole, you can see that the good form is long gone. Over his last five starts, he has a 6.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13% and a walk rate of 12%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. The good news for Garza is that he gets to face the Giants (dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching) in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball (AT&T Park). The bad news is that he is still Matt Garza and that the Giants have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Garza is a deep GPP flier thanks to a good matchup in a good ballpark. For cash games, play Bundy and/or Moore.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Moore
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	33	4.39	4.08	21.2%	8.6%	38.2%	30.8%	15.3%
	2017	25	4.78	5.54	19.3%	8.4%	37.2%	34.3%	16.3%
	L30	6	4.19	4.78	23.9%	7.7%	35.9%	27.6%	19.1%

Moore has taken a step back this season, which isn’t good considering the fact that his 2016 numbers weren’t very good to begin with. In 25 starts in 2017, Moore owns a 4.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate below 20%. He is also a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. While he will face a right-handed heavy Brewers’ lineup today, he does have decent strikeout potential in this matchup. On the season, Milwaukee has the second highest k-rate against left-handed pitching. Both of the pitchers in this game will likely give up runs (the total is set at 9.0), but Moore at least has the strikeout upside to make up for some of them.

Quick Breakdown: Moore is the preferred target over Matt Garza if you are looking for an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

It’s always hard to differentiate your lineups in smaller slates, especially if you want to play the popular pitchers. I never recommend this in bigger slates, but one way to get a unique roster is to take a hitter or two that is facing your pitcher. It allows you to play the chalky pitcher, while differentiating your lineup in the process. Since the start of last season, Matt Moore has allowed a .326 xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, and Manny Pina are all intriguing plays in this small slate, even though this isn’t a great ballpark for offensive production.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.228	0.219	0.102	27.7%	8.3%	31.5%	62.5%	SS	$3,000	2B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.363	0.360	0.232	40.3%	13.0%	24.3%	51.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.408	0.452	0.255	52.1%	15.4%	10.8%	41.7%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.322	0.267	0.225	31.0%	5.5%	28.2%	40.8%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.375	0.339	0.205	49.0%	9.8%	30.5%	40.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.358	0.338	0.111	44.8%	2.6%	19.5%	34.5%	C	$2,800	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.356	0.329	0.280	33.3%	11.8%	35.3%	40.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.302	0.261	0.080	26.8%	9.4%	16.7%	50.0%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Matt Garza	RIGHT	0.175	0.121	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	60.0%	100.0%	P	$6,600	P	$7,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Manny Pina

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

The Giants have little to no firepower in their lineup right now, but they are a low-strikeout offense that is facing a low-strikeout pitcher in Matt Garza. At the very least, we can expect them to put the ball in play often, which generally results in runs when Garza is on the mound. In terms of splits, Garza has allowed a .354 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons, while holding righties to a .299 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate. This typically wouldn’t be a spot to load up on the Giants, but we are forced to make strange decisions in two game slates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.346	0.335	0.185	26.1%	6.5%	11.5%	39.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.305	0.254	0.075	27.1%	9.1%	23.9%	55.4%	2B	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.306	0.282	0.156	21.4%	5.9%	32.4%	47.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.343	0.360	0.116	30.6%	9.8%	11.4%	46.3%	C	$3,100	1B/C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.272	0.299	0.134	33.5%	6.8%	21.9%	50.7%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.306	0.338	0.171	39.1%	7.1%	20.5%	46.7%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Ryder Jones	LEFT	0.270	0.262	0.175	32.6%	4.8%	22.6%	37.2%	1B	$2,600	1B/3B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
8	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.299	0.273	0.063	24.6%	8.6%	20.2%	52.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Matt Moore	LEFT	0.120	0.140	0.000	12.0%	2.6%	33.3%	65.0%	P	$8,100	P	$7,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Jarrett Parker

Secondary Plays – Kelby Tomlinson, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Ryder Jones

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Pittsburgh
			Rich Hill							Trevor Williams
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-145							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	0.309	25.2%	9.3%	19.8%	51.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.289	24.6%	7.1%	15.1%	49.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.259	0.269	31.2%	8.6%	31.5%	38.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.331	34.0%	8.0%	19.6%	48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rich Hill
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$20,000
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016	20	3.29	2.12	29.4%	7.5%	45.3%	28.3%	22.3%
	2017	18	3.93	3.54	28.4%	10.2%	37.9%	31.5%	22.1%
	L30	5	3.88	3.54	28.0%	9.3%	34.3%	41.1%	15.1%

Hill is one of four “aces” that we have on the mound tonight (and yes, I’m considering Zack Godley an ace). Of the four, I expect him to garner the lowest ownership, which makes him an intriguing tournament play right off the bat. He has been in very good form recently, posting a 3.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% in his last five starts. His curveball is one of the toughest to hit in baseball and he actually has a much higher strikeout rate against righties (32%) than he does against lefties (20%), so I don’t mind when he is facing a right-handed heavy lineup. The question here is whether or not he’s worth the price against a Pirates’ offense that doesn’t strikeout very often.

Quick Breakdown: Hill gets the green light in tournaments, but I will be leaning on the other three aces in my cash game lineups.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2016	1	4.28	7.82	18.0%	8.2%	45.5%	31.1%	17.8%
	2017	19	4.61	4.71	17.5%	7.5%	49.0%	29.3%	24.3%
	L30	6	4.73	5.03	18.8%	10.4%	55.7%	25.0%	22.0%

The two rules that I have lived by this season in MLB DFS are as follows:

1. Don’t play pitchers in Coors Field.
2. Don’t play pitchers against the Dodgers.

There have been very few instances where following these rules has been to my detriment. Over the long run, avoiding both is your best bet. The Dodgers are one of the best offenses in baseball and they strikeout at a very low rate. Even when it looks like a pitcher is having a good outing against them (Gerrit Cole on Monday night), it can change in an instant. Williams doesn’t have the strikeout upside that I’m looking for in a pitcher and he’s listed as a sizable underdog at home.

Quick Breakdown: If you like to play below-average pitchers against elite offenses, be my guest.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are an offense that should get overlooked in this slate. We will get to them eventually, but the Twins, Yankees, and Cubs are all going to be popular offenses to target. I’d like to say that we should load up on the Dodgers at low ownership, but I like the three offenses that I just mentioned a lot more. The Dodgers are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against a ground-ball pitcher that induces a lot of soft and medium contact. Rather than stacking this offense, I will be looking to Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, and Justin Turner as one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.397	0.350	0.248	36.8%	9.9%	26.2%	40.4%	OF	$3,800	2B/OF	$4,600	2B	$9,000
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.371	0.395	0.191	47.6%	14.0%	21.3%	41.5%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,700
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.369	0.382	0.146	34.9%	10.9%	10.1%	29.9%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,700
4	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.354	0.348	0.270	34.8%	14.7%	22.1%	29.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900	CF	$9,600
5	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.343	0.296	0.234	36.7%	6.7%	26.3%	40.5%	C	$3,200	C	$3,900	C	$7,600
6	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.369	0.354	0.257	36.1%	9.6%	19.9%	46.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
7	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.283	0.307	0.104	33.9%	6.7%	16.0%	34.8%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
8	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.266	0.293	0.041	29.8%	14.1%	26.7%	47.9%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
9	Rich Hill	LEFT	0.084	0.124	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	35.0%	77.8%	P	$8,800	P	$10,400	P	$20,000

Elite Plays – Corey Seager

Secondary Plays – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Yasiel Puig (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are a below-average offense against left-handed pitching this season and they draw one of the worst matchups in the slate. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Rich Hill has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. The Pirates are an easy fade as a whole, but Andrew McCutchen deserves a look as a deep tournament flier. He currently boasts a .433 xwOBA and a .446 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.196	0.247	0.043	25.7%	6.0%	24.0%	47.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,400
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.356	0.303	0.163	29.6%	8.0%	15.0%	41.8%	2B	$3,400	2B/3B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.495	0.433	0.446	45.5%	17.9%	13.4%	31.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.390	0.388	0.154	39.7%	17.5%	21.6%	56.9%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
5	Jose Osuna	RIGHT	0.343	0.297	0.198	30.0%	6.9%	12.6%	51.4%	OF	$2,700	1B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,900
6	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.466	0.402	0.292	50.0%	21.9%	25.0%	18.8%	OF	$2,600	3B/OF	$2,100	2B	$4,000
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.282	0.297	0.158	39.0%	10.3%	17.8%	51.3%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,200
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.136	0.212	0.091	26.3%	4.3%	13.0%	63.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,000	C	$4,000
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.000	0.101	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	50.0%	P	$6,400	P	$5,700	P	$11,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								Philadelphia
			Justin Nicolino							Mark Leiter Jr.
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-121							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.335	25.7%	1.6%	11.0%	55.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.346	27.8%	7.8%	20.6%	40.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.348	0.367	34.7%	8.3%	11.0%	43.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.332	29.1%	11.5%	20.5%	53.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Nicolino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$12,400
	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2016	13	5.11	4.99	10.7%	5.8%	46.6%	32.9%	15.4%
	2017	7	5.39	4.11	11.8%	8.3%	46.8%	30.7%	12.3%
	L30	2	6.21	1.74	6.5%	8.7%	43.6%	38.5%	15.4%

There were a lot of runs scored in the two games played in this ballpark yesterday. While we don’t have another double-header on our hands, we do have two hittable pitchers. In seven starts this season, Nicolino has a 5.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He doesn’t have a high enough ground ball rate to stay out of trouble in this home run-friendly ballpark. Even though we generally like to pick on the Phillies, this is a rare opportunity to target their hitters in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Any pitcher with a strikeout rate of 12% is an auto-fade, especially in this ballpark.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mark Leiter Jr.
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30

	2017	4	4.42	4.38	20.5%	9.8%	47.0%	28.5%	21.2%
	L30	1	3.06	4.70	26.9%	4.5%	42.9%	37.2%	18.6%

Leiter has flashed some upside in his rookie season, but his best outings have all come as a reliever. He hasn’t had nearly as much success starting the game as he has had coming out of the bullpen. Vegas doesn’t seem too impressed, as the Marlins are small favorites in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs. The Marlins aren’t the best offense in baseball, but they are always dangerous when Giancarlo Stanton is swinging the bat well.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog at home in a game that features a high total, Leiter is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins are one of the sneakier stacks in the slate. As I mentioned in the previous game, most of the attention will be on the Twins, Yankees, and Cubs tonight. Meanwhile, we can take the Marlins at low ownership in a home run-friendly ballpark. The sample size is small (four starts and some relief work), but Mark Leiter Jr. has allowed a .346 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .332 xwOBA to right-handed hitters in his rookie season. Giancarlo Stanton is one of the top overall plays in the slate and the one through five stack is viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.310	0.260	0.072	18.6%	5.0%	13.5%	55.6%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.412	0.403	0.345	38.6%	11.0%	25.1%	41.8%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,700	RF	$11,200
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.340	0.357	0.146	38.2%	12.9%	20.4%	56.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,700
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.392	0.372	0.264	42.1%	9.0%	21.7%	44.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.326	0.330	0.155	31.8%	5.7%	17.5%	50.8%	C	$2,800	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.304	0.309	0.166	34.8%	7.7%	19.2%	33.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
7	Tomas Telis	SWITCH	0.337	0.320	0.139	39.4%	2.6%	7.9%	48.5%	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.291	0.309	0.027	18.0%	8.1%	9.8%	48.0%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,500	2B	$4,800
9	Justin Nicolino	LEFT	0.000	0.113	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	P	$5,500	P	$6,200	P	$12,400

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

Before you close out of your browser, hear me out. The Phillies stack is in play for me tonight on DraftKings. Before you ask, no, I’m not off my medication. In fact, I’m not on any medication to be off of. Anyway, let me explain. Luis Severino and Corey Kluber are the top two pitching options in the slate. Due to their hefty salaries, nobody is going to play them both in the same lineup. If you want to create a unique tournament team, you can stack five Phillies with that pitching duo and still have over $3,000 to spend on your remaining three position players. Just to be clear, the Phillies are facing a low-strikeout lefty in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.309	0.317	0.161	24.8%	6.3%	13.4%	58.9%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.285	0.255	0.119	22.4%	2.6%	11.5%	38.6%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
3	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.506	0.525	0.643	53.9%	25.0%	5.0%	23.1%	OF	$3,100	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,600
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.293	0.306	0.198	33.0%	8.5%	13.2%	49.0%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.356	0.293	0.200	21.4%	6.7%	26.7%	64.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,900
6	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.289	0.313	0.231	27.5%	10.7%	23.8%	43.8%	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,500	1B	$4,800
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.438	0.349	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	16.7%	40.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
8	Cameron Perkins	RIGHT	0.250	0.248	0.056	23.3%	7.1%	19.0%	50.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,300	CF	$4,400
9	Mark Leiter Jr.	RIGHT	0.219	0.049	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$6,200	P	$7,100	P	$14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, Nick Williams, Tommy Joseph, Jorge Alfaro

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								NY Mets
			Zack Godley							Chris Flexen
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-150							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	0.305	25.9%	9.7%	24.0%	58.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.381	0.392	27.3%	16.7%	12.5%	28.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.308	34.7%	6.1%	21.8%	51.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.455	0.351	34.2%	13.8%	13.8%	48.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Godley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$18,800
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	9	4.16	6.39	17.9%	7.5%	53.8%	32.1%	17.9%
	2017	18	3.59	3.13	26.6%	8.0%	54.9%	29.5%	19.8%
	L30	6	3.53	3.22	29.6%	9.2%	50.6%	28.3%	18.5%

Dollar for dollar, Godley is my favorite pitching option in the slate tonight. That goes for both cash games and tournaments. The natural inclination is to spend up at pitcher in cash games, so I don’t expect his ownership to be too outrageous. He has been solid all season, posting a 3.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a walk rate of 55%. He keeps hard contact under control and he has a great offense to provide him run support. While the Mets have decent numbers against right-handed pitching on the season, this isn’t the same lineup as earlier in the year. Not only that, but the Mets have already mailed their season in. At this point, there is no chance of that mail being labeled “return to sender.”

Quick Breakdown: Godley has been my go-to pitcher often this season and that continues tonight against the Mets.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Flexen
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,200
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30

	2017	5	6.48	6.55	13.2%	15.1%	39.7%	31.1%	28.4%
	L30	5	6.48	6.55	13.2%	15.1%	39.7%	31.1%	28.4%

Flexen is quickly finding out that the major leagues are a tad bit tougher than Double-A. When the Mets called him up to the big leagues, he skipped right over Triple-A ball. His first five starts have gone the way most of us expected. He currently owns a 6.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13% and a walk rate of 15%. A major league career could certainly be in his future, but he’s not fit for the job just yet. As long as the Mets keep throwing him out there, I will keep throwing out stacks against him.

Quick Breakdown: Flexen isn’t ready for the big leagues. It’s a hard balance between giving him experience and shattering his confidence.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are similar to the Marlins in that they should be under 10% owned tonight, even though they have the potential to be the highest scoring offense in the slate. They are facing a rookie pitcher that has a higher walk rate than strikeout rate. In his first five starts, Chris Flexen has allowed a .392 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .351 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. This is not only a great matchup for Arizona, but they are playing on the road, which guarantees ninth inning at-bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	David Peralta	LEFT	0.365	0.319	0.180	35.6%	7.1%	14.7%	53.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
2	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.328	0.311	0.153	38.9%	6.8%	20.8%	44.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,000
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.404	0.381	0.285	37.0%	14.2%	21.5%	39.4%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,900	3B	$9,600
4	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.430	0.399	0.291	43.3%	14.4%	23.1%	45.7%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,500	1B	$10,800
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.357	0.375	0.281	41.9%	11.5%	26.4%	42.5%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,900
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.335	0.322	0.171	41.2%	11.8%	22.7%	37.3%	2B	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,100	2B	$6,000
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.318	0.299	0.252	39.2%	10.3%	36.8%	35.4%	C	$2,300	C	$3,300	C	$6,400
8	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.328	0.317	0.169	24.6%	8.6%	20.4%	36.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Zack Godley	RIGHT	0.063	0.078	0.000	7.7%	3.4%	51.7%	55.6%	P	$8,800	P	$9,700	P	$18,800

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets

The Mets used to be an offense that we were scared to target pitchers against, but their current lineup only has one batter with an xwOBA over .340 against right-handed pitching this season. Zack Godley has an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA in the last two seasons. With so many Godley shares in my lineups tonight, I will naturally be fading the Mets as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.310	0.338	0.029	39.1%	15.0%	27.5%	34.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,600	LF	$5,100
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.299	0.336	0.151	36.3%	9.6%	15.7%	42.3%	3B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.412	0.389	0.288	39.9%	14.6%	22.0%	37.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.355	0.334	0.220	40.7%	6.3%	17.6%	37.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,800
5	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.339	0.329	0.195	34.9%	7.0%	14.6%	36.7%	2B	$3,100	1B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
6	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.269	0.298	0.231	27.3%	3.7%	14.8%	59.1%	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,700	1B	$5,400
7	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.263	0.220	0.163	25.0%	0.0%	34.0%	53.1%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.248	0.286	0.150	34.2%	3.9%	16.7%	40.4%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
9	Chris Flexen	RIGHT	0.205	0.121	0.167	50.0%	0.0%	66.7%	50.0%	P	$5,600	P	$5,200	P	$10,200

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 23rd

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Stackability Rating System:

Oakland at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Manny Pina

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Jarrett Parker

Secondary Plays – Kelby Tomlinson, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Ryder Jones

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Corey Seager

Secondary Plays – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Yasiel Puig (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, Nick Williams, Tommy Joseph, Jorge Alfaro

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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