NHL Grind Down: Friday, November 11th
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres
| New Jersey Devils | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 | Keith Kinkaid |  | Anders Nilsson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 6-3-3 | 5-5-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.33 | 2.25 | 17.90% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.00 | 2.23 | 19.50% | 80.40% |
The New Jersey Devils are a Jeckyl and Hyde team when it comes to playing on the road versus the friendly confines of the Prudential Center in Newark New Jersey. Their 1-3-2 road record isn’t the best but playing the Sabres who took on Ottawa last night may just be enough for them to squeak one out here tonight. Taylor Hall and Travis Zajac are joined by P.A. Parenteau to form the team’s top line as they also get a lot of ice time when the team draws a penalty. Hall has finally caught fire as he has tallied five of his nine points over the last four games. Zajac is tied with Hall for the team lead in points with nine while defenseman Damon Severson has seen five of his team tying nine points come on the power play. On such a small slate we should look to the second line where Pavel Zacha has been moved into the top six to skate with Adam Henrique and Kyle Palmieri. Pairing Zacha with either one is good enough for GPP play tonight. A longshot one-off would be Mike Cammalleri as he skates on the third line and looked to be finding his stride after his hat trick five games ago, but that has since turned into a mirage.
Buffalo was a bit short-handed the other night when Ryan O’Reilly was sat down with an undisclosed upper-body injury. Sam Reinhart took his place on the top line between Kyle Okposo and the returning Evander Kane. The Sabres have been able to hang in there but with the injuries that have piled up so far this season, they have been holding on for dear life. Kyle Okposo has been the most consistent player along with the injured O’Reilly and defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen as they all have found the scoresheet eight times so far this year. With O’Reilly back in the lineup it would be easy to pair him with Okposo on home ice and use Kane for the full line stack. Reinhart makes a decent one-off play here as it looks like he will stick on the top power play unit with O’Reilly, Okposo, Ristolainen and Matt Moulson.
Elite Plays
NJ: None
BUF: None
Secondary Plays
NJ: Taylor Hall, Damon Severson, Travis Zajac, Pavel Zacha
BUF: Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane
Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs
| Philadelphia Flyers | Toronto Maple Leafs | ||||||||
 | Michal Neuvirth |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 6-6-2 | 5-5-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.36 | 3.57 | 28.30% | 79.10% | Team Stats | 2.85 | 3.62 | 22.90% | 85.70% |
The Flyers are about as mediocre as a team can get. Their 3-3-1 identical home a road records combined with their 49 goals and 51 goals against are surely evidence of this. The good thing is that the Flyers have the second most goals in the conference while giving up the most and that my friends is great for NHL DFS. Look for this one to be a track meet as both teams have no clue what it means to play defense. Matt Read has moved up to the top line with Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds. Of Giroux’s 15 points nine have come on the power play and that’s why Brayden Schenn makes a decent one off play tonight. Although Read took Schenn’s place on the top line, he didn’t get to replace him on the team’s top power play unit that has scored 11 goals over the past eight game while enjoying the man advantage. Schenn has also garnered two goals and seven assists in the last five games. Enough said. Jakub Voracek is also a decent one-off play for most of the same reasons as Schenn is although he and Travis Konecny should see more room on the ice as Toronto will try to shut down the top line at even strength. Shayne Gostisbehere gets the ice time on the power play but Mark Streit is the one grabbing the points as he has seven of them over the past four games compared to Gostisbehere’s two.
Toronto won three games before getting waffled at home by a score of 7-0 at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings. I’ve spoke before about how Auston Matthews is second in team scoring with 11 points in 13 games but has just come up with one assist over the last seven games. Playing the Flyers tonight might just cure what ails him as he and linemate William Nylander should see some favorable match ups on home ice tonight. James van Riemsdyk and Mitchell Marner make a decent GPP play as they skate on the team’s second line and have a combined three goals and six assists on the maple Leafs last ten goals. Leo Komarov and Nazem Kadri have some relevance as they get the extra ice time on the team’s top power play unit. Jake Gardiner leads the defesne in points with seven as he quarterbacks the top power play unit.
Elite Plays
PHL: Claude Giroux
TOR: None
Secondary Plays
PHL: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit
TOR: William Nylander, Mitchell Marner, James van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri
Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators
| Los Angeles Kings | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Jeff Zatkoff |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 7-7-0 | 8-5-0 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.62 | 2.46 | 11.40% | 78.70% | Team Stats | 2.31 | 2.46 | 11.10% | 84.60% |
The Kings play their third road game in four nights as they visit Ottawa for a game with the all of a sudden defensively tough Senators. Ottawa has only scored 11 goals over the last eight games so this one could be the snooze-fest of the night. Los Angeles will need to bounce back from a 4-1 loss last night in Montreal which saw them score their only goal via the power play. This is a real simple break down as Anze Kopitar skates on the top line with Tanner Pearson and Jeff Carter had Tyler Toffoli on his right on the second line. Pearson is the only player that isn’t on the top power play line but still makes a good pairing with Kopitar. Drew Doughty and Alec Martinez saw most of the ice time with the man advantage from the point but Jake Muzzin. Carter and Toffoli look to be the cash plays here as they are the duo that gets the most ice time with each other. Toffoli had the goal last night which puts him third on the teams scoring list with nine points while carter’s assist has him on top of the heap with five goals and five assists.
Ottawa comes into this one with 16 points so far and is 4-2 over the last six games with all of those games seeing not more than four goals combined from both teams. Obviously Ottawa’s goaltending has been on point but the offense still leaves a lot to be desired. They have the talent for sure but this mixing up the lines every three games or so can’t be helping the chemistry of the team. The latest lines have Derick Brassard, Bobby Ryan playing on the top line with Mike Hoffman. This line also serves as the team’s top power play unit and could be in play here as Ottawa has finally made the change to put Hoffman on the top line. Defenseman Erik Karlsson is almost always in play on a nightly basis by logging over 26 minutes of ice time per game. While Karlsson leads the team in points with ten, Hoffman keeps firing shots at the net as he leads the team with 47 of them only to have seven points to show for it. Ryan Dzingel makes a decent one-off play here as he has five points over the last five games and now skates with Kyle Turris on what could be called the team’s second line.
Elite Plays
LAK: Jeff Carter
OTT: Erik Karlsson
Secondary Plays
LAK: Tyler Toffoli, Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez
OTT: Bobby Ryan, Derick Brassard, Mike Hoffman
Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks
| Washington Capitals | Chicago Blackhawks | ||||||||
 |  | ||||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 8-3-1 | 10-3-1 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.75 | 2.17 | 13.20% | 81.80% | Team Stats | 3.43 | 2.36 | 18.60% | 67.30% |
If there’s one game you almost have to watch tonight it’s this one. Washington has a 4-1-1 record in their six road games so far this season while Chicago has won their last seven games. The top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie will no doubt be the target of the Hawks best defensive line but that may not be enough to stop them tonight. Although Chicago has cleaned up their penalty killing this month it’s still tough to keep this trio off of the board when they have the man advantage. Marcus Johansson joins them from the second line which makes him a nice one-off play here considering he has six goals and five assists in 12 games. Johansson and Evgeny Kuznetsov have some GPP value here but the only problem is that Kuznetsov has not been living up to expectations with only six points so far this season. John Carlson is the play on defense as he quarterbacks the top unit when the team has the man advantage. He is warming up as well as he has three of his five assists over the last five games. Matt Niskanen can probably had at a discount but his 19 shots and five assists pales in comparison to Carlson’s 35 shots on goal.
Chicago played tough against the Blues on Wednesday night as they won their seventh game in a row by a score of 2-1 in overtime. We have to assume that the Capitals will try to shut down the top line of Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Nick Schmaltz so going with the second line here is almost optimal. Artemi Panarin, Marian Hossa and Artem Anisimov have combined to score 21 of the 49 goals Chicago has scored this season. Panarin and Anisimov skate with Kane on the team’s top power play line as all three players occupy the team’s top spots on the scoring chart for the season. The options on defense are Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith and although they are close in points, Keith gets the nod here as he shoots the puck almost twice as much as Seabrook does. Look for a good game out of these two teams tonight which could end up being a low scoring affair.
UPDATE
Artem Anisimov is OUT for tonight’s game. Marcus Kruger will center the second line with Panarin and Hossa.
Elite Plays
WSH: Alex Ovechkin
CHI: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin
Secondary Plays
WSH: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson
CHI: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith, Marian Hossa
Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche
| Winnipeg Jets | Colorado Avalanche | ||||||||
 |  | ||||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 7-7-1 | 5-7-0 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.00 | 3.07 | 14.50% | 80.00% | Team Stats | 2.00 | 3.08 | 19.00% | 79.20% |
Winnipeg found a way to win in the desert as they defeated the Coyotes by a score of 3-2. Blake Wheeler and newcomer Nicolas Petan are very much in play here as they skate on the team’s second line and should have some room to maneuver on the ice tonight. Wheeler is your one-off play here however as he gets to skate on the power play with the top line of Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers and Mark Scheifele. That whole top line leads the team over the last six games with seven goals and 11 assists. The Avalanche tend to take a few penalties and have given up at least one goal while a man down over the last two games, so targeting any four of these forwards could reap some benefits tonight. Dustin Byfuglien is trying to keep up with team leaders but has only eight assists while grabbing over 28 minutes of ice time on a nightly basis.
Even though the Jets played last night it’s still tough to jump on a team that has only scored 24 goals in 12 games and only and only ten in their last eight games. I mean, where do you start? Sure it’s a home game against a tired team but they even lost to Arizona on home ice just three days ago. The power play is streaky at best so maybe just sticking with matt Duchene and calling it a night is the only option here. Duchene has had a hand in six of the last eight Colorado goals while Gabriel Landeskog is next in line with just three points over the same time frame. After that its slim pickings as maybe you could pair Duchene with linemate Nathan MacKinnon who has managed seven points on the 24 total goals the Avalanche have score. Tyson Barrie is the most offensive defenseman they have so maybe he can break out a little tonight against a Winnipeg team that has given up over 43 goals so far this season. The top power play line consists of Duchenne, Jarome Iginla, who skates on the second line with Landeskog, Mikhail Grigorenko and defenseman Erik Johnson. If you buy into the fact that the Jets will be tired by playing their third game in four nights, by all means have at it.
Elite Plays
WIN: Mark Scheifele
COL: Matt Duchene
Secondary Plays
WIN: Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler, Nicolas Petan, Dustin Byfuglien
COL: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Jarome Iginla, Erik Johnson