NHL Grind Down: Sunday, November 1st
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these write-ups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche – 03:00 PM EST
| San Jose Sharks | Colorado Avalanche | ||||||||
 | Martin Jones |  | Semyon Varlamov | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 40-33 | 39-31 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.76 | 21.60% | 78.50% | Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.72 | 15.00% | 84.60% |
After a 4-0-0 start to the season, things looked great for San Jose. Then everything turned upside down as Logan Couture was lost for six weeks and we’ve now seen the Sharks drop five of their last six games. They couldn’t keep pace with the Dallas Stars last night and have allowed nearly four goals per game since that undefeated start to the season. Couture’s loss is huge and shouldn’t be understated, but there’s still plenty of firepower left in this lineup and a matchup like this afternoon’s battle against a mediocre (at best) Colorado team could be just what they need to get back on the right track. Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton team up on the top line (likely with Joonas Donskoi) as likely the most dangerous offensive line in the absence of Couture, but it’s been the Marleau/Hertl/Ward line doing most of the damage lately. Ward is almost guaranteed to go overlooked today, but with five goals over the past five games, he’s one of the best value options on the board. Brent Burns is a defenseman by title only and well worth his big-ticket asking price if you can afford it.
Colorado lost 3-2 in Carolina on Friday night and have now dropped five of their last six games. This team is a dumpster fire by Corsi Standards (40.4 CF%) and look to really miss the presence of Ryan O’Reilly up front. They lost both meetings against the Sharks last season and are just a very tough team to trust in DFS hockey right now. Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog had been the only bright spots early on this season the Avs, but in an attempt to create some secondary scoring, Patrick Roy split that duo up in their last game. MacKinnon now finds himself alongside Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay, while Landeskog is joined by Matt Duchene and Jack Skille. I’m not overly optimistic that Colorado can create much offense in 5 on 5 situations this afternoon, but they should be able to take advantage of the Sharks penalty kill that clicked at just 78.5% last season. With that in mind, Carl Soderberg joins the aforementioned forwards as an acceptable (and cheap) option with Erik Johnson, Francois Beauchemin and Tyson Barrie all decent plays on the blue-line.
Elite Plays
SAN: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns
COL: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon
Secondary Plays
SAN: Joonas Donskoi, Tomas Hertl, Joel Ward
COL: Matt Duchene, Jarome Iginla, Carl Soderberg, Erik Johnson, Francois Beauchemin, Tyson Barrie
Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes – 05:00 PM EST
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Carolina Hurricanes | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Cam Ward | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 50-24 | 30-41 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.16 | 2.51 | 18.80% | 83.70% | Team Stats | 2.23 | 2.67 | 18.80% | 84.70% |
The Lightning were severely outplayed last night in a home loss to the Bruins and will now make the trip north to Raleigh to take on the Hurricanes. Tampa has now dropped four straight games and have only managed to score a pair of goals in those four contests. This is a very solid hockey team, but they’re clearly really struggling right now and have not had a ton of success on the road over the past few seasons. While their offense has been non existent lately, it’s hard to imagine both of Tampa’s top two forward lines will be held in check for long. Steven Stamkos has a 60 goal season on his resume and is the centerpiece of the their dangerous #1 line with Ryan Callahan and Alex Killorn (while Jonathan Drouin is out). When opposing teams focused too heavily on trying to slow down that line last season, the Palat/Johnson/Kucherov trio consistently made them pay. If the Lightning can get their 1-2 scoring punch back, this team will contend for the Eastern Conference title once again. On the blue-line, Victor Hedman actually leads the team with 10 points on the young season and is an elite option on tonight’s five game slate. Anton Stralman is another option as he logs well over 20 minutes per game and sees plenty of run on the point of the #2 power-play unit.
Don’t look now, but the Hurricanes have rattled off three straight wins and are 5-3-0 since their ugly 0-3-0 start to the season. Keeping their winning streak alive won’t be easy this afternoon against the very talented Lightning, but it’s not wise to ignore Carolina on this somewhat short slate. The Lightning have been a much less effective team away from the Sunshine State and Carolina should be a confident hockey club after surviving their brutal seven game road trip right and happen to be the third-best team in the league by Corsi Standards. After experimenting with the newly acquired Kris Versteeg on nearly every line possible early this season, it looks like Bill Peters has finally decided to just put him alongside Eric Staal on the team’s top forward line; which is great news for both players. Versteeg and Staal have combined for points in the first 11 games and are the premier options from this team up front. Victor Rask has the luxury of centering the line with those two and that makes him a fine value option. On the blue-line, your fantasy attention needs to be on Justin Faulk. The rising star actually led this team in points last season and has already tallied four goals and three assists to start the 2015-16 season. He’s averaging over 25 minutes of ice-time per game this season and sees the lions share of the work on the point of the Canes power play.
Elite Plays
TAM: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman
CAR: Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg, Justin Faulk
Secondary Plays
TAM: Ryan Callahan, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Anton Stralman
CAR: Victor Rask, Jeff Skinner, Ryan Murphy
Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens – 07:00 PM EST
| Winnipeg Jets | Montreal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Ondrej Pavelec |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-26 | 50-22 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.49 | 17.80% | 81.80% | Team Stats | 2.61 | 2.24 | 16.50% | 83.70% |
Playing in the second half of back-to-back games is tough, but playing that second game in Montreal against the Canadiens just seems unfair. From a fantasy perspective, there Jets are pretty easy to breakdown; they have two very strong forward lines and Dustin Byfuglien on the back end. Blake Wheeler leads the way with six goals and eight assists but i’m really not excited about using anyone here in cash games. It’s worth noting that Nikolaj Ehlers remains criminally underpriced on some sites (FD, for instance) and is a fine “punt” option. Montreal is simply one of the best teams in the league, especially at the Bell Centre, and if Carey Price is confirmed in net…. the matchup doesn’t get much tougher.
The Canadiaes snapped out of their two game losing streak by punishing Calgary 6-2 on Friday night and will hit the ice tonight with an impressive 10-2-0 record to start the 2015-16 season. The Canadiens top scoring line of Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher has been nearly unstoppable thus far as all three players have already reached double-digit points and have combined for 17 goals and 16 assists through the first 12 games. I’ll be doing my best to get plenty of exposure to all three. While that line is definitely my preferred targets from the Montreal offense, David Desharnais, Lars Eller and Alex Galchenyuk all see plenty of run on the second power-play unit and are fine secondary option. On the blue-line, both P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov have been offensive forces thus far. The duo share point duties on the very dangerous #1 power-play unit and both players enter the game with 11 points through the first 12 games. Subban is likely a bit more consistent, but Markov isn’t quite as expensive. Regardless, both are definitely strong plays. Carey Price should be back between the pipes tonight and he’s an elite play everytime he starts.
Elite Plays
WPG: None
MON: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov, Carey Price
Secondary Plays
WPG: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers, Dustin Byfuglien
MON: David Desharnais, Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller, Tomas Fleischmann, Jeff Petry
Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders – 07:30 PM EST
| Buffalo Sabres | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Jaroslav Halak | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 23-51 | 47-28 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 1.87 | 3.28 | 13.40% | 75.10% | Team Stats | 2.99 | 2.73 | 18.70% | 78.00% |
The days of Buffalo being a complete pushover like they were last season appear to be over, but they’re still a ways away from being anywhere near a playoff caliber team as well. Heading to Brooklyn to battle a superior New York Islanders team obviously makes them fairly heavy underdogs by Vegas standards and also makes it tough to fully trust anyone here in cash games. Ryan O’Reilly has been very impressive with his new team, picking up four goals and nine assists in 11 games which makes him the top option here and a fine cash game play on sites that don’t factor in plus/minus. Jack Eichel is an exciting young talent and has already lit the lamp four times during his young career, but he’s better served as a GPP flier. With Evander Kane out and Tyler Ennis questionable, i’m not expecting much offense from the Sabres in this matchup. Cody Franson and Rasmus Ristolainen are both locked into 20+ minutes per game and see plenty of run on the power-play, putting them on the GPP radar as well.
The Islanders lost in a shootout to New Jersey yesterday afternoon, but should be pleased to head back home and face the Buffalo Sabres tonight. While the back-to-back situation is not ideal, you simply can’t overlook the home matchup against the Sabres here. After posting the worst penalty kill in the league last season, things have not changed for Buffalo as their 71.4% PK is down-right embarrassing. Both of the very capable top two forward lines are very much in play tonight, but I’ll be focusing my attention on the Islander’s #1 power-play unit. John Tavares was a last minute scratch prior to yesterday’s game, but all signs at this point to him being back in the lineup tonight. If that’s the case, he’s the headliner here with Anders Lee, Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen and Ryan Strome all nice options as well. On the blue-line, it’s been Nick Leddy on the point of the #1 power-play lately making him a fine option and both Marek Zidlicky and Johnny Boychuk see a healthy dose of power-play time on the second unit. With Jaroslav Halak having gotten the call between the pipes yesterday, it’s likely we’ll see Thomas Greiss tonight and he’s a fine option in all formats.
Elite Plays
BUF: Ryan O’Reilly
NYI: John Tavares, Anders Lee, Ryan Strome, Kyle Okposo, Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk, Thomas Greiss
Secondary Plays
BUF: Jack Eichel, Matt Moulson, Rasmus Ristolainen, Cody Franson
NYI: Frans Nielsen, Nikolai Kulemin, Josh Bailey, Marek Zidlicky
Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks – 08:00 PM EST
| Nashville Predators | Anaheim Ducks | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 47-25 | 51-24 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.46 | 16.20% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.70 | 15.70% | 81.00% |
The Predators dropped a grueling 4-3 decision in overtime last night against the Kings and will make the short trip to Anaheim to battle the Ducks tonight. This is an interesting matchup as the Ducks took all three meetings between these teams last season, but certainly haven’t looked like a power in the Western Conference to start the 2015-16 season. While tired legs are definitely a concern for the Predators tonight, their top line of Mike Fisher, Filip Forsberg and James Neal is just too talented to ignore. Neal has led the way early on this season as he’s already lit the lamp seven times and added three assists through the first ten games. Despite the Ducks early season struggles, they’ve still played fairly solid defense and own a rock solid 90.9 % penalty kill, so I’m definitely not expecting a ton of goals in this game. One of Nashville’s biggest strengths is their three-headed monster on the blue-line. Roman Josi, Shea Weber and Seth Jones are locked into huge workloads and all three see plenty of run on the team’s top power-play unit.
It’s been a disastrous start to the season for the Ducks, as they’ve not only sputtered to a 1-7-2 start, but they’ve also lost their Captain Ryan Getzlaf for a little bit thanks to an appendectomy. Anaheims offense has been epically bad thus far as they’ve only scored 10 goals through the first ten games. With Nashville being one of the most defensively stout teams in the NHL, this doesn’t seem like the spot for them to break out of their funk. With Getzlaf out of commission it looks like Bruce Boudreau will load up his top offensive weapons onto the top forward line as Carl Hagelin, Ryan Kesler and Corey Perry are all slated to skate alongside each other. From a fantasy standpoint, that’s good news for DFS players. Not only does it improve the outlook for all three of those forwards, but it also pretty much destroys the value of some of their secondary scoring options. While Jiri Sekac, Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg all see some time with the man advantage, it’s worth noting that the Predators own a very impressive 86.2% penalty kill. On defense, Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm are all fine options, but they aren’t overly flashy and don’t possess the high ceilings that some of the other blue-liners on today’s slate offer.
Elite Plays
NSH: James Neal, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Shea Weber
ANA: Corey Perry
Secondary Plays
NSH: Mike Fisher, Mike Ribeiro, Colin Wilson, Seth Jones
ANA: Ryan Kesler, Carl Hagelin, Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen