MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, June 14th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants – Bumgarner is once again up to his old tricks in 2016. The San Francisco Giants ace has been lights-out this season, sporting a 7-2 record, to go along with a .202 BAA and a 28% strikeout rate. The Milwaukee Brewers are not a good road team and we know they can strikeout with the best of them. The Brewers are currently striking out more than 25% of the time, which is the highest rate in Major League Baseball. Bumgarner is nearly unhittable when pitching at AT&T Park, and I expect another dominant performance from him this evening. With his hefty price tag across the industry, I think he will be criminally under-owned in tournament play.
Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres – Pomeranz continues to impress as a member of the San Diego Padres. The 27-year-old southpaw has held both lefties (.184 BAA, .255 wOBA) and righties (.179 BAA, .239 wOBA) in check this season while posting a solid ground ball rate (46.7%) and a terrific strikeout rate (28.9%). The Miami Marlins are simply an average offense, and with Giancarlo Stanton in an awful slump, it makes this matchup even more appealing for the Padres lefty. Pomeranz numbers on the season are outstanding and they are even better at Petco Park. Considering the ballpark and matchup, Pomeranz is an excellent high-upside play in large field tournaments.
Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners – Taijuan Walker was absolutely brilliant last time out, throwing eight shutout innings while striking out 11 Cleveland Indians. The 23-year-old Shreveport Louisiana native finds himself in a great spot tonight. The Tampa Bay Rays are a below average offense versus right-handed pitching and they are striking out at a 25% clip, which is the third-highest in Major League Baseball. Walker has double-digit strikeout upside in this matchup and he makes a terrific play in GPPs this evening.
Other Pitchers to Target – David Price, John Lackey, Kenta Maeda, Jaime Garcia
CATCHER
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals – Perez is a streaky hitter and he is starting to heat up once again. He is currently riding a five-game hitting streak, totaling 10 hits, including two home runs. Perez has also owned Josh Tomlin in a decent sample size (.650 BA in 20 ABs) and I love his potential tonight.
Tyler Flowers, Atlanta Braves – The Atlanta Braves are a tough offense to target, especially against left-handed pitching. With that being said, I still want to pick on Brandon Finnegan and the league’s worst bullpen. Tyler Flowers is a great source of cheap power for tournament play.
Other Catchers to Target – Buster Posey, Brian McCann, Yasmani Grandal, Yan Gomes, Nick Hundley
FIRST BASE
Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals – I rarely stack against Doug Fister, but I will attack him with left-handed batters. Lefties are tattooing Fister so far in 2016 (.375 wOBA and a 35.7% hard-hit rate), and I think we see more of the same tonight. Matt Adams is swinging the bat well these days (base knocks in 10 of his last 11) and I expect him take Fister deep in this one.
Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers – Walks (4.60 BB/9) and left-handed batters (.376 wOBA) continue to haunt Arizona Diamondbacks’ prospect Archie Bradley. This is a great matchup for Gonzalez and the Dodgers lefties. A-Gon destroys right-handed pitching and he has massive upside against Bradley in this hitter-friendly venue.
Other First Basemen to Target – Carlos Santana, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Brandon Belt, Mark Reynolds, James Loney
SECOND BASE
Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – Chris Young is having a season to forget and left-handed batters have been his worst nightmare. Lefties own a .512 wOBA against him and he has allowed a 52.5% hard-hit rate along with 12 long-balls already this year. Young was already a very hittable, homer prone pitcher, but these numbers are insanely bad. Kipnis is a great option at the keystone position tonight as either a one off, or as part of a Cleveland Indians stack.
Starlin Castro, New York Yankees – After being demoted to the bullpen earlier this season, Jorge De La Rosa will get the start tonight for the Colorado Rockies. De La Rosa has always had issues with hitters from the right side of the plate and 2016 has been no exception (.340 BAA, .424 wOBA). Castro should get a top-five spot in the batting order tonight and I see a multi-hit game in his future.
Other Second Basemen to Target – D.J. Lemahieu, Daniel Murphy, Neil Walker (DTD), Chase Utley, Jurickson Profar, Ian Kinsler
THIRD BASE
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs – If you like to kick a pitcher when he is down, now is the time to pick on Gio Gonzalez. In his last four starts, Gonzalez has allowed 21 earned runs, including five long-balls. Gio has also had issues with right-handed batters this season (34.9% hard-hit rate, along with eight homers allowed). Kris Bryant has put up some big power numbers this season and he is hitting southpaws very well (.379 wOBA). Because most fantasy owners consider Gonzalez a very good pitcher, I do not expect high ownership on Bryant this evening.
Danny Valencia, Oakland A’s – Martin Perez is a frustrating pitcher to attack. Perez does not strikeout many hitters, which means he allows a lot of contact and hard contact to right-handed batters (34.6%). However, with his high groundball rate (55.8%), he is able to avoid getting lit up. Regardless, I still love the upside Danny Valencia brings to the table in this matchup. Valencia is a notorious lefty-killer and he should be able to pound out a couple of hits tonight.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Nolan Arenado, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Headley, Matt Carpenter, Adonis Garcia
SHORTSTOP
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers – Corey Seager is another Los Angeles Dodgers bat I will have plenty of exposure to tonight. The talented young slugger has been ripping the cover off the ball recently, racking up 12 hits in his last 10 contests, including six bombs. Once Seager and the Dodgers send Archie Bradley to the showers, they can continue to score runs off that weak Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen.
Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers – With Rich Hill on the DL and Jesse Hahn being sent down to Triple-A, Eric Surkamp is back in the Show, which is great news for daily fantasy players. Surkamp has been hammered throughout his Major League career (6.45 ERA) and this season has been no different (.641 ERA, .322 BAA). Andrus not only owns terrific numbers against lefties this season (.352 BA, .382 wOBA) but also in his career. Look for a multi-hit game tonight from the Rangers light-hitting shortstop.
Other Shortstops to Target – Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Crawford
OUTFIELDERS
The Colorado Rockies Outfield – Nate Eovaldi has scuffled of late, allowing 10 earned runs and three home runs in his last two starts. Despite some success before his last two outings, Eovaldi is still getting abused by lefties (.384 wOBA and a 41.3% hard-hit rate). All three of Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra have big game potential this evening.
Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto, New York Mets – Early in the season it was looking like Juan Nicasio was going to have a breakout season, but his inability to retire left-handed hitters has put that on hold. Lefties have done some serious damage to Juan Nicasio so far this season (.316 BAA, .411 wOBA) and I think the Mets continue to assault him in this game.
Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers – Eric Surkamp is a Gas Can and he warrants more attention in this article. The Oakland A’s lefty has allowed.402 wOBA to hitters from the right side of the plate in 2016 and I do not see him pitching well tonight. Ian Desmond is having an all-star season for the Texas Rangers thus far and he is absolutely murdering southpaws (.361 BA, .413 wOBA).
Other Outfielders to Target – Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez, Jay Bruce, Mark Trumbo, Joc Pederson, Ryan Rua, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jeff Francoeur