MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, September 6th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians – Kluber was outstanding once again in his last start (8 IP, 3 ER, 11 Ks and the win) as he continues to compete for the American League Cy Young award. Since the All-Star break, the Cleveland Indians’ ace is sporting a 2.04 ERA along with a .221 BAA and 67 strikeouts in 61 innings pitched. The Houston Astros have some serious thump in their lineup, but most of that thump is right-handed, and Kluber has dominated righties (.207 BAA, .262 wOBA) thanks in large part to a 27.9% strikeout rate. The Astros also strike out the third-most in baseball versus right-handed pitching, setting the stage for a big game from Kluber. Look for Kluber to go at least seven strong innings tonight, while striking out double-digits and cruising to an easy victory. He won’t be cheap, but he is worth paying up for this evening.
Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs – Hammel looked terrific in his last outing (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks) and he has been very consistent all year long for the Chicago Cubs. The veteran right-hander has posted solid ratios in 2016, along with a decent strikeout rate and he should excel in this plus matchup tonight. Not only are the Milwaukee Brewers a cold offense (ranked 23rd in wOBA and 25th in wRC+, over the past 30 days), they are also striking out more than anyone else in baseball against right-handed pitching, whiffing at a 25.7% clip. Hammel has owned the Brew Crew throughout his career (2.50 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 rate) and I think we see him dominate them once again this evening.
Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals – Weaver was dealing in his last start, going six strong innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, while striking out 10 batters. The 23-year-old rookie has lived up to the hype so far in his brief Major League career, carrying a 29.2% strikeout rate into tonight’s start. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a cold offense recently, ranking 25th in wOBA versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. The Pirates are also a right-handed heavy lineup, and Weaver has slammed the door on righties so far, holding them to a .196 BAA and a .263 wOBA. Against an average offense, in a great pitcher’s park, I think we see the St. Louis Cardinals’ young righty continue to roll.
Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox – With the injury to Steven Wright, the Boston Red Sox will insert Clay Buchholz back into the rotation. The 32-year-old right-hander has not pitched well this season, but he has looked much better in August (2.86 ERA, .237 BAA) and he has a terrific matchup on deck. The San Diego Padres have been a disaster all season long against right-handed pitching. The Padres rank dead-last in both wOBA and wRC+, while striking out at a 25.1% clip, which is the second-most in Major League Baseball. Buchholz had been pitching out of the bullpen recently and won’t be fully stretched out, but he did throw 94 pitches in 6.1 innings of work against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 23rd, so we could see him with a similar workload this evening. At his inexpensive price across the industry, he certainly makes a great roll of the dice in GPPs.
Other Pitchers to Target – Gio Gonzalez, Aaron Sanchez, Rafael Montero, Jake Odorizzi
CATCHER
Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers – We have so many poor pitchers on the bump tonight and we can add Shelby Miller to that list. Miller has been awful in 2016 (6.81 ERA, .307 BAA), and hitters from the left side of the plate remain his nemesis (.414 wOBA, 39.3% hard-hit rate). Grandal has now homered in three consecutive games and I would not be surprised to see him go deep again tonight.
J.T. Realmuto, Miami Marlins – Realmuto is swinging a hot stick lately, producing 11 hits in his last six games. The Marlins’ catcher has hit the ball with authority as well during this hot streak, generating a double and three home runs. On the season, Adam Morgan owns a 6.21 ERA and a .307 BAA, which means we should be attacking him this evening. Righties have hammered Morgan this season (.400 wOBA, 38.6% hard-hit rate) and we should see Realmuto stay hot in this one.
Other Catchers to Target – Buster Posey, Nick Hundley, Russell Martin, Stephen Vogt, Mike Zunino
FIRST BASE
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs – We have a plethora of “Gas Cans” on the bump this evening and Wily Peralta tops my list. Yes, Peralta has pitched much better of late, but this is still a guy we want to pick on. Left-handed hitters have murdered Peralta over the years and Rizzo is my top bat at any position this evening.
Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox – I don’t think I have ever seen a slate with so many starting pitchers to target against. Paul Clemens is a “Gas Can of the Night” nominee each and every time he toes the rubber. The Columbia, South Carolina native owns a career 5.32 ERA, and righties have pounded him over the years (.396 wOBA, 36.8% hard-hit rate). Hanley Ramirez has excelled of late and I do not see Paul Clemens or that bad San Diego Padres bullpen slowing him down tonight.
Other First Basemen to Target – Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Moss, Carlos Santana, Adrian Gonzalez
SECOND BASE
Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins – Brian Dozier is the hottest hitter in the game right now. The Minnesota Twins’ offensive catalyst has been on fire, racking up 10 hits in his last four contests, including a double, six home runs and 10 runs batted in. Look for Dozier to easily extend his 10-game hitting streak tonight against the very hittable Dillon Gee, with a multi-hit affair.
Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals – The Atlanta Braves seem to have a pitcher worth attacking on a nightly basis these days, and tonight is no exception, as Williams Perez takes the hill. The best way to attack Perez is with left-handed hitters. The Braves’ big right-hander has allowed a career .360 wOBA and a 32.6% hard-hit rate to lefties. Daniel Murphy absolutely rakes versus righties (.346 BA, .416 wOBA) and I see a big game in his future.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist, Matt Carpenter, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Devon Travis
THIRD BASE
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs – I am once again looking to pick on Wily Peralta. There was a time when we wanted to just stack lefties against him, but right-handed batters are now in play as well. In 2016, the Brewers’ right-hander has allowed a .384 wOBA and a 35.5% hard-hit rate to hitters from the right side of the plate. The Chicago Cubs are my top stack tonight in Miller Park, with Rizzo and Bryant leading the attack.
Jedd Gyorko, St. Louis Cardinals – Ryan Vogelsong is a below average pitcher and he has always struggled with the long-ball. Gyorko has been on a power run recently, hitting 11 home runs in his last 21 games. If you are looking for a power source, who should fly under the radar, Gyorko is a great option.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson, Eduardo Nunez, Manny Machado, Danny Valencia, Todd Frazier
SHORTSTOP
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers – Shelby Miller’s inability to retire left-handed hitters makes Corey Seager my top target at shortstop this evening. I should also note that Miller is backed up by an awful bullpen, giving Seager double-dong potential in this game.
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians – Brad Peacock is another arm we should be attacking tonight. The 28-year-old right-hander has been an average pitcher at best during his time at the Major League level, posting sub-par career numbers across the board (4.67 ERA, 32.3% hard-hit rate). Lindor contributes across the board offensively and he has jack-and-a-bag upside in this matchup
Other Shortstops to Target – Xander Bogaerts, Brad Miller, Tim Anderson, Troy Tulowitzki, Asdrubal Cabrera, Marcus Semien
OUTFIELDERS
Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets – Brandon Finnegan continues to not only struggle with right-handed hitters (40.1% hard-hit rate) but also with the long ball (26 home runs allowed to hitters from the right side of the plate) in 2016. Cespedes has been a beast against southpaws this season (.347 BA, .457 wOBA) and I love his potential in this prime matchup.
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins – We have a ton of weak pitchers on the mound this evening and Dillon Gee is definitely at the top of my list. Gee has been hit hard throughout his Major League career, and with his lack of strikeout stuff, he allows a lot of hard contact. Sano should make plenty of contact this evening and we know what he does when he makes hard contact.
J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers – Miguel Gonzalez is a very hittable, fly-ball pitcher, who will struggle with the long ball. This is a superb matchup for J.D. Martinez, who has huge home run potential tonight.
Other Outfielders to Target – Coors Field, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Dexter Fowler, Mookie Betts, Jose Bautista, Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty, Jorge Soler