MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 5th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-05 20:08:24

Milwaukee at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Milwaukee					Arizona
			Chase Anderson					Braden Shipley
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI -119					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.304	13	26.0%	20.3%	SP vs. Left	0.436	2	54.6%	17.2%
SP vs. Right	0.365	23	34.8%	15.8%	SP vs. Right	0.354	1	35.7%	15.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chase Anderson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		22.2	FPPG:		10.4
					Pitcher Rating:		44.5	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	4	92.0	4.56	3.50	23.2%	12.2%	9.0%	36.5%	32.7%	34.0%
2016	20	90.2	4.71	5.13	18.5%	8.7%	8.2%	36.2%	39.7%	36.8%
2015	27	91.2	4.26	4.30	17.3%	6.3%	8.0%	42.0%	34.4%	27.2%

Anderson has seen a spike in his strikeout rate over the last month of play, but that’s really all he has going for him right now. In 20 starts this year, he has a 4.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.5% and a hard hit contact rate of 36.8%. Giving up hard contact is never good, especially in hitter’s parks like Chase Field. There is more risk than potential reward here. Avoid Anderson in all league formats, as he squares off against his former team.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Braden Shipley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		26.0	FPPG:		11.4
					Pitcher Rating:		47.7	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	2	103.5	4.91	4.76	16.3%	10.2%	7.3%	51.4%	31.4%	47.2%
2016	2	103.5	4.91	4.76	16.3%	10.2%	7.3%	51.4%	31.4%	47.2%

Shipley will be making his third career major league start tonight. The first two haven’t been great and I don’t see a ton of improvement on the horizon. In 19 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.70 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.5%. The matchup against the Brewers is certainly in his favor, but you are better off targeting the likes of Jameson Taillon or Jaime Garcia.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season, but they get to face a rookie pitcher with a low strikeout in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the National League. That doesn’t sound too bad, right? Vegas agrees with me in this one, as the Brewers have the ninth highest implied team total on the board. They are a sneaky offense to target in both cash games and GPPs.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.9% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.02 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.02 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.64 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.338	0.122	0.346	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,000
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.309	0.128	0.390	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.360	0.206	0.528	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,900
4	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.272	0.069	0.382	3B	$3,300	3B/OF	$4,400
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.313	0.233	0.291	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.320	0.196	0.493	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000
7	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,300
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.252	0.080	0.446	C	$2,400	C	$2,800
9	Chase Anderson	RIGHT	0.094	0.000	0.000	P	$6,100	P	$6,300
	Team Averages	—	0.251	0.115	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett, Chris Carter

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

Whenever you see a team that really struggles against a certain handedness of pitcher, but they have one of the highest team totals on the board, that is the ultimate green light for DFS. Basically, their matchup is so good that even though the Diamondbacks can’t hit righties, they are still expected to be one of the highest scoring teams in the slate. Load up on right-hitters against Chase Anderson, who has allowed a .365 wOBA and a 34.8% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.4% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.39 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.86 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.302	0.102	0.402	2B	$3,600	2B/SS	$5,000
2	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.268	0.068	0.193	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.391	0.223	0.355	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,700
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.367	0.228	0.256	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,000
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.290	0.163	0.254	C	$2,700	C	$3,300
6	David Peralta	LEFT	0.377	0.216	0.260	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800
7	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.303	0.144	0.517	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,800
8	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.312	0.155	0.242	OF	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,400
9	Braden Shipley	RIGHT	0.414	0.333	0.249	P	$6,200	P	$5,700
	Team Averages	—	0.336	0.181	0.303	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Chicago Cubs					Oakland
			Jon Lester					Dillon Overton
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -200					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.274	6	34.0%	28.1%	SP vs. Left	0.597	3	44.4%	0.0%
SP vs. Right	0.290	27	26.8%	23.7%	SP vs. Right	0.493	6	36.2%	14.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$9,600
					FPPG:		34.8	FPPG:		18.8
					Pitcher Rating:		77.4	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	4	89.3	4.97	4.35	22.0%	14.3%	10.1%	44.6%	33.9%	26.3%
2016	21	96.9	3.76	2.95	24.2%	7.4%	10.3%	46.4%	34.0%	27.4%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

Lester hasn’t been in great form recently, posting a 4.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 14.3% in his last four starts. It’s concerning to see him walk that many batters, because he usually has great command. He draws a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the A’s, who have the second lowest strikeout rate of any team against lefties this season. Lester obviously has a great chance to pick up the win, but I’m not sure how many strikeouts he is going to be able to secure.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dillon Overton
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		10.8	FPPG:		1.3
					Pitcher Rating:		25.6	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	2	84.0	5.05	7.45	14.9%	2.1%	10.1%	20.5%	48.7%	35.9%
2016	4	87.3	6.06	9.33	11.8%	6.5%	10.3%	21.1%	55.3%	38.2%

Overton’s first four major league starts have not gone as planned. He has a 9.33 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.8%. To make matters worse, he has to face a Cubs’ offense that is ranked seventh or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. There is a reason why the Cubs are -200 favorites tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may not be playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks, but they have a favorable matchup against Dillon Overton and they get to utilize the DH since the game is being played in Oakland. Chicago currently has the fifth highest implied team total on the board and with a game in Coors Field, they are going to get overlooked. This is one of my favorite contrarian stacks to use tonight in tournaments.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.346 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.182 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.7% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.84 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.07 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.83 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.385	0.153	0.368	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,400
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.382	0.259	0.333	3B	$4,200	3B/OF	$5,200
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.379	0.213	0.332	1B	$4,600	1B	$4,900
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.380	0.169	0.392	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,300
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.357	0.163	0.268	C	$3,100	C/OF	$3,800
6	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.423	0.206	0.269	SS	$2,700	2B/3B	$4,700
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.268	0.154	0.272	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500
8	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.302	0.095	0.244	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400
9	David Ross	RIGHT	0.317	0.176	0.362	C	$2,500	C	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.355	0.176	0.316	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The A’s have a few hitters that can mash against left-handed pitching, but as a group, they struggle against southpaws. They come into tonight’s game with the fifth lowest team total on the board. With a matchup against Jon Lester, they are an easy fade for cash games. Danny Valencia is the one hitter that stands out as a nice tournament play, as he owns a .397 wOBA against lefties in the last two seasons.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.161 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 17.4% (2 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.73 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.09 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.67 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.263	0.105	0.434	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
2	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.381	0.236	0.268	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,300
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.336	0.132	0.175	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,200
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.397	0.208	0.419	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,900
5	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.321	0.230	0.446	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,400
6	Billy Butler	RIGHT	0.320	0.144	0.570	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,200
7	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.117	0.000	0.306	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,200
8	Jake Smolinski	RIGHT	0.397	0.264	0.341	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200
9	Matt McBride	RIGHT	0.265	0.088	0.500	OF	$2,200	C	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.156	0.384	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia

Stackability – RED

Boston at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Boston					LA Dodgers
			Steven Wright					Scott Kazmir
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -133					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.277	7	22.6%	18.9%	SP vs. Left	0.304	11	23.0%	15.4%
SP vs. Right	0.307	13	35.6%	18.5%	SP vs. Right	0.305	27	26.2%	24.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Steven Wright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,500
					FPPG:		35.8	FPPG:		18.5
					Pitcher Rating:		52.0	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	95.6	4.17	6.07	20.5%	6.1%	11.3%	40.0%	43.2%	27.4%
2016	21	104.7	4.44	3.20	19.7%	8.6%	10.8%	45.2%	35.0%	27.8%
2015	9	130.9	4.60	4.09	16.8%	8.7%	9.3%	43.2%	43.2%	33.9%

Wright hasn’t been pitching as deep into games as he was earlier in the season. That’s a huge red flag for me, as that was basically his selling point from a DFS point of view. Over the last month of play (five starts), he is only averaging 95.6 pitches per outing. He does see a nice ballpark boost tonight and he does get to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup, but I’m bearish on the knuckleballer right now.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Scott Kazmir
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		29.9	FPPG:		15.4
					Pitcher Rating:		77.6	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	4	94.5	3.30	4.57	25.3%	3.3%	10.1%	36.9%	35.4%	26.2%
2016	21	95.7	3.80	4.41	25.0%	7.9%	10.3%	40.5%	36.8%	24.5%
2015	31	94.9	4.10	3.10	20.3%	7.7%	10.3%	42.9%	37.3%	25.7%

Kazmir is always a hard pitcher to peg in DFS. He shows up when you don’t expect him to and he lets us down in favorable matchups. The Red Sox haven’t been as good against left-handed pitchers as they have against righties this season, but they still aren’t an offense that I want to pick on anytime soon. The one plus for Kazmir is that he will get to face the opposing pitcher instead of David Ortiz. That’s a matchup boost if I’ve ever seen one.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are rarely one of the lowest projected teams on the board. While they are playing in a pitcher’s park and while David Ortiz will be limited to pinch-hit duty in this series, I could still see them scoring some runs tonight against Scott Kazmir. This is one of those situations where I will end up fading both the pitcher (Kazmir) and the offense that he is facing.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.345 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.6% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.91 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.48 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.81 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.347	0.197	0.409	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,900
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.341	0.150	0.360	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,400
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.388	0.115	0.367	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,600
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.363	0.232	0.324	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100
5	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.362	0.173	0.326	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,300
6	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.285	0.095	0.250	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$2,500
7	Ryan Hanigan	RIGHT	0.292	0.061	0.049	C	$2,000	C	$2,300
8	Bryce Brentz	RIGHT	0.316	0.125	0.217	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,400
9	Steven Wright	RIGHT	0.000	0.000		P	$9,000	P	$9,500
	Team Averages	—	0.299	0.128	0.288	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers couldn’t get much of anything going in Coors Field against the Rockies. They are going to need more run support than that if they are going to win this series against the Red Sox. They have a mediocre run projection tonight, as they square off against Steven Wright at home. This isn’t a bad matchup, but it’s not one that really stands out as a favorable one either.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.38 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.305	0.133	0.238	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,500
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.402	0.234	0.386	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,700
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.385	0.226	0.397	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,700
4	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.367	0.193	0.276	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900
5	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.353	0.191	0.326	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800
6	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.335	0.211	0.480	C	$3,100	C	$3,800
7	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.352	0.232	0.427	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
8	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.317	0.120	0.310	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$2,900
9	Scott Kazmir	LEFT	0.159	0.000	0.176	P	$8,800	P	$8,000
	Team Averages	—	0.331	0.171	0.335	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
LA Angels					Seattle
			Tim Lincecum					Felix Hernandez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA -175					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.309	6	33.3%	19.7%	SP vs. Left	0.310	16	26.1%	18.6%
SP vs. Right	0.437	11	41.1%	15.9%	SP vs. Right	0.295	16	25.9%	25.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tim Lincecum
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		15.4	FPPG:		4.2
					Pitcher Rating:		34.4	Pitcher Rank:		26
L30 Days	5	87.6	5.11	9.55	17.4%	11.3%	9.8%	42.5%	35.0%	49.4%
2016	8	90.0	5.16	8.49	17.2%	11.7%	10.6%	42.7%	33.1%	42.1%
2015	15	88.2	4.82	4.13	18.0%	11.4%	10.7%	44.3%	35.1%	34.6%

Lincecum has been rocked, hammered, pounded, roasted, and smoked this season. In eight starts, he has a 8.49 ERA with a strikeout rate of 17.2% and a walk rate of 11.7%. He has been one of my favorite pitchers to stack hitters against and that trend will continue tonight in Seattle. On the season, the Mariners are ranked sixth in team wOBA and eighth in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Felix Hernandez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		31.3	FPPG:		15.7
					Pitcher Rating:		71.0	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	3	98.7	4.78	5.60	15.7%	9.6%	9.5%	52.5%	25.4%	33.9%
2016	13	99.9	4.45	3.46	18.9%	9.7%	8.7%	53.2%	26.8%	27.4%
2015	31	98.1	3.38	3.53	23.1%	7.0%	10.7%	56.2%	26.9%	25.4%

Hernandez has not been sharp since coming back from injury, posting a 4.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.7% in his last three starts. While I like his chances to pick up a win tonight, he has some serious upside issues against the Angels. Not only is his strikeout rate down, but Los Angeles has the lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball. King Felix is overpriced tonight, even though he is pitching at home.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels have the seventh lowest implied team total on the board tonight. While I don’t mind picking on Felix Hernandez this season, there is really only one hitter that is on my radar here. Mike Trout has a .415 wOBA against right-handed pitching in the last two seasons and he should be well rested after taking last night’s game off.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.3% (1 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.68 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.65 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.340	0.088	0.360	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,200
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.328	0.156	0.222	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.415	0.273	0.375	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,200
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.331	0.202	0.315	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000
5	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.298	0.075	0.355	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500
6	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.288	0.213	0.297	1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$2,900
7	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.299	0.163	0.445	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,500
8	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.283	0.128	0.341	C	$2,400	C	$3,000
9	Cliff Pennington	SWITCH	0.289	0.106	0.252	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.156	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle

The Mariners draw one of the premier matchups in the slate tonight. The best part is that I expect their ownership to be low. Not only are they playing in a late game (which tend to go under-owned), but there is a game in Coors Field to soak up a bunch of ownership. The sample size is small (eight starts), but Lincecum has allowed a .386 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a ridiculous .550 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.179 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (14 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.67 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.68 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.322	0.110	0.307	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
2	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.347	0.191	0.206	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.370	0.211	0.319	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,000
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.367	0.230	0.366	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.360	0.209	0.344	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,500
6	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.346	0.216	0.248	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600
7	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.285	0.136	0.230	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.259	0.176	0.423	C	$2,700	C	$2,900
9	Luis Sardinas	SWITCH	0.184	0.000	0.098	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.164	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Robsinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Norichika Aoki, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Leonys Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at San Diego – 10:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Philadelphia					San Diego
			Jeremy Hellickson					Christian Friedrich
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SD -110					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.342	17	32.0%	17.1%	SP vs. Left	0.303	5	30.2%	18.9%
SP vs. Right	0.309	24	30.5%	21.6%	SP vs. Right	0.358	8	30.5%	16.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeremy Hellickson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$9,300
					FPPG:		29.8	FPPG:		15.7
					Pitcher Rating:		59.0	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	5	89.4	4.57	2.56	15.2%	3.2%	9.4%	34.0%	39.0%	21.6%
2016	22	92.1	4.04	3.70	20.3%	5.4%	11.3%	40.1%	34.8%	27.4%
2015	27	91.8	4.14	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%

Hellickson has a 2.56 ERA in his last five starts, but he peripherals suggest that the wheels may be coming off the tracks. During that stretch, he has a 4.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.2%. We usually like to pick on the Padres, but there are enough flags for me to steer clear of Hellickson tonight. As I’m sure you are very tired of hearing, I’m a big fan of Jameson Taillon and Jaime Garcia if you are looking to save at pitcher.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Christian Friedrich
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,100
					FPPG:		23.6	FPPG:		10.9
					Pitcher Rating:		51.4	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	82.6	5.00	6.29	14.7%	7.3%	8.0%	39.0%	37.8%	31.3%
2016	14	92.4	4.94	4.72	17.6%	10.5%	8.6%	44.6%	35.2%	32.2%
2015	0	0.0	4.20	5.25	16.7%	9.3%	11.2%	47.4%	29.4%	28.1%

Friedrich hasn’t been on my fantasy radar this season and that’s not going to change anytime soon. In 14 starts, he owns a 4.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.6% and a walk rate of 10.5%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, but we’ve seen this lineups spoil some outings of pitchers that are a lot better than Friedrich. I do like the fact that Friedrich is only $5,100 on DraftKings, but if you need a complete punt, I’d rather target Reynaldo Lopez.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

If I don’t like the pitchers in this game, then that should mean that I like the hitters, right? While I’d rather target the offenses over the pitchers, I’m likely going to be fading this game altogether. The great thing about DFS is that we don’t have to take players from every game. If you are targeting any Phillies’ hitters, give an advantage to the ones that can hit from the right side of the plate.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.288 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.109 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.9% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.72 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.65 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.343	0.065	0.419	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900
2	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.332	0.236	0.393	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,900
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.357	0.237	0.309	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,100
4	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.401	0.265	0.408	C	$3,000	C	$4,100
5	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.405	0.273	0.341	1B	$2,400	1B	$4,000
6	Jimmy Paredes	SWITCH	0.242	0.058	0.223	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.215	0.083	0.191	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.237	0.031	0.190	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,800
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.166	0.000	0.249	P	$7,300	P	$9,300
	Team Averages	—	0.300	0.139	0.303	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego

The Padres have a mediocre run projection tonight, as they square off against Jeremy Hellickson at home. Over the course of the last two seasons, Hellickson has allowed a .342 wOBA and 17 home runs to left-handed hitters. Once again, I’m not crazy about anyone from this game and will likely be fading it completely.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.292 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.7% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.43 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.322	0.107	0.323	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800
2	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.388	0.346	0.358	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,400
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.333	0.196	0.335	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.341	0.179	0.297	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,700
5	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.367	0.247	0.522	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
6	Jabari Blash	RIGHT	0.323	0.107	0.480	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,400
7	Christian Bethancourt	RIGHT	0.258	0.131	0.184	C	$2,600	C	$2,800
8	Jose Rondon	RIGHT	0.117	0.000	0.103	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,400
9	Christian Friedrich	LEFT	0.075	0.000	0.000	P	$5,600	P	$5,100
	Team Averages	—	0.280	0.146	0.289	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 5th - Page Three

Milwaukee at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett, Chris Carter

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia

Stackability – RED

Boston at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Robsinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Norichika Aoki, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Leonys Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at San Diego – 10:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE

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