MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-06 04:21:57

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Cincinnati					Pittsburgh
			Anthony DeSclafani					Jameson Taillon
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -147					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.347	19	32.1%	18.8%	SP vs. Left	0.336	4	33.3%	17.7%
SP vs. Right	0.287	5	29.3%	20.5%	SP vs. Right	0.287	3	38.5%	23.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Anthony DeSclafani
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		35.2	FPPG:		17.9
					Pitcher Rating:		65.0	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	5	98.4	3.55	4.06	23.0%	3.2%	10.6%	37.1%	37.1%	31.5%
2016	10	100.4	4.00	2.93	20.7%	5.2%	9.6%	39.2%	37.5%	29.1%
2015	31	94.0	4.08	4.05	19.2%	7.0%	9.5%	45.1%	33.6%	31.4%

DeSclafani has a great last name. Derek DeSclafani would have a nice ring to it, don’t you think? He has been in good form in his last five starts, posting a 3.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 3.2%. He has an equal distribution of ground balls and fly balls and he has limited the hard hit contact against him this season. While he is listed as an underdog tonight, this isn’t a terrible matchup. The Pirates’ offense has been ice cold over the last few weeks and he gets to face them in a pitcher’s park. The main issue here is that there are better plays for both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jameson Taillon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,800
					FPPG:		27.0	FPPG:		14.6
					Pitcher Rating:		80.7	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	3	80.3	2.73	3.00	22.5%	0.0%	10.4%	59.3%	25.9%	34.6%
2016	8	84.1	3.33	3.52	20.0%	2.7%	8.0%	54.7%	23.7%	35.2%

Before I made my manual adjustments to the pitcher ratings (which take into account SIERA, K%, recent form, and matchup), Taillon had the highest projection of any pitcher in my model. I bumped him down below two of the aces on the mound tonight. However, in a points per dollar sense, Taillon is far and away the best value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. People may point to a possible pitch count tonight, but he threw 92 pitches in his last start and should see 90-95 again tonight. The matchup is in his favor, as the Reds are ranked below the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds’ offense has more talent than their numbers would lead you to believe. They currently average the 11th fewest runs per game and they are ranked below the major league average in almost every offensive category against right-handed pitching. They come into tonight’s game with the lowest team total on the board, as they take on Jameson Taillon, who has really looked comfortable in his first eight major league starts. Joey Votto may be the hottest hitter in baseball right now. While he is worth a look in tournaments, the rest of the Reds’ offense can be avoided.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.32 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.48 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.261	0.058	0.292	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.322	0.183	0.318	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,300
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.416	0.231	0.485	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,100
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.358	0.315	0.396	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600
5	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.308	0.107	0.339	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,900
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.329	0.230	0.551	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,400
7	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.304	0.155	0.350	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,100
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.306	0.113	0.257	C	$2,100	C	$2,800
9	Anthony DeSclafani	RIGHT	0.161	0.015	0.000	P	$8,100	P	$9,400
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.156	0.332	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates’ offense came alive in their series against the Braves, but were ice cold before that. They have dipped below the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching on the seasons. They have a mediocre run projection tonight and a fairly difficult matchup against Anthony Desclafani. I don’t love the spot as a whole, but Desclafani has allowed a .347 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.95 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.57 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.02 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.350	0.216	0.324	SS	$2,700	OF/SS	$2,900
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.340	0.166	0.353	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,900
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.350	0.182	0.266	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.357	0.156	0.454	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,900
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.354	0.193	0.238	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.321	0.077	0.295	C	$2,800	C	$2,600
7	David Freese	RIGHT	0.327	0.149	0.285	1B	$3,000	1B/3B	$2,900
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.275	0.076	0.248	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,500
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$7,400	P	$7,800
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.135	0.274	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Matt Joyce (if he’s in the lineup)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Cleveland					NY Yankees
			Josh Tomlin					Michael Pineda
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -114					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.251	16	33.5%	18.4%	SP vs. Left	0.329	16	30.9%	25.1%
SP vs. Right	0.338	22	32.5%	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.328	25	31.5%	25.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Josh Tomlin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,800
					FPPG:		32.5	FPPG:		16.6
					Pitcher Rating:		60.8	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	4	97.5	3.72	4.26	21.7%	3.8%	9.0%	42.3%	37.2%	32.1%
2016	19	93.7	4.12	3.43	17.6%	2.8%	7.1%	41.0%	37.4%	32.8%
2015	10	94.9	3.46	3.02	22.7%	3.2%	9.4%	37.5%	46.2%	33.2%

Despite a 3.43 ERA on the season, I have yet to roster Tomlin in DFS. His numbers have been trending in the wrong direction this season. His SIERA is up, while his strikeout rate is down considerably. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 32.8%. He doesn’t have great velocity and he relies on his command and his breaking pitches. Even though the Yankees have been struggling offensively, I’m not a huge fan of Tomlin tonight. There are better plays on the board, especially when you see how expensive he is on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Pineda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		30.6	FPPG:		16.2
					Pitcher Rating:		78.0	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	99.4	3.61	4.80	27.6%	9.5%	15.1%	50.0%	32.5%	38.8%
2016	21	97.7	3.34	5.13	27.6%	6.8%	14.5%	44.6%	33.5%	32.7%
2015	27	94.4	3.09	4.37	23.4%	3.1%	11.9%	48.2%	29.9%	30.1%

If life were full of ifs and buts, Pineda would a top ten pitcher in the American League this season. His peripheral statistics continue to look great, yet he can’t seem to catch a break in the batted ball department. There is nearly a full two run differential between his SIERA and his ERA. As we all know, SIERA is a good predictor of future ERA, but eventually we want to see the results. The strikeouts have been there all season and he has induced a 50% ground ball rate in his last five starts. The matchup against a left-handed heavy Indians’ lineup does concern me a little, but Pineda’s upside makes him a great GPP option.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians get to play in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium tonight, but they come into the game with the 11th lowest implied team total on the board. While we expect Michael Pineda results to eventually line up with his advanced pitching stats, his splits look enticing. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .329 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .328 wOBA to right-handed hitters. I won’t be loading up on Indians tonight, but left-handed power bats are always in play with the short porch in right field.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.189 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (10 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.96 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.350	0.233	0.281	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.380	0.189	0.344	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.347	0.158	0.335	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,600
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.314	0.204	0.429	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,200
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.310	0.126	0.380	3B	$3,200	P	$4,000
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.320	0.149	0.353	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
7	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.437	0.306	0.438	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900
8	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.315	0.155	0.208	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
9	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.297	0.149	0.147			C	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.185	0.324	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are ranked in the bottom ten in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, pitches per plate appearance, and runs scored per game this season. Basically, they do not hit right-handed pitching well. They don’t hit lefties very well either, but we’ll save that for another day. Their matchup against Josh Tomlin looks favorable on paper, but they don’t really have the tools to take advantage of his splits. He is an extreme reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .352 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while holding lefties to a .251 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.302 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.07 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.325	0.138	0.296	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.308	0.101	0.256	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
3	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.349	0.270	0.394	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,000
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.329	0.202	0.275	C	$2,800	C	$3,100
5	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.322	0.198	0.080	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,400
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.312	0.141	0.269	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,100
7	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.288	0.125	0.236	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,500
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.306	0.122	0.296	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,000
9	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.282	0.123	0.208	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.158	0.257	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Starlin Castro

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
San Francisco					Washington
			Jeff Samardzija					Reynaldo Lopez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -135					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.357	31	31.0%	16.5%	SP vs. Left	0.276	1	30.8%	42.3%
SP vs. Right	0.294	17	26.4%	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.606	0	35.7%	10.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeff Samardzija
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,900
					FPPG:		26.7	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		47.0	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	4	99.8	5.24	5.87	14.6%	9.7%	8.0%	46.7%	38.7%	33.8%
2016	21	100.7	4.32	4.30	17.9%	6.2%	9.1%	46.7%	34.2%	31.5%
2015	32	104.3	4.18	4.96	17.9%	5.4%	9.8%	39.0%	39.8%	27.0%

Samardzija started the season off pitching well, but he has been in a slump for the better part of two months. In his last four outings, he has a 5.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.6%. It’s never a bad idea to fade pitchers that are in bad form, especially when they are facing an offense that is of the caliber of the Nationals. Washington has been cruising offensively over the last few weeks and now that they are healthy, there isn’t really a soft spot in their lineup. Until he can flash some form, continue to avoid Samardzija in daily fantasy.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Reynaldo Lopez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		19.0	FPPG:		7.8
					Pitcher Rating:		73.0	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	2	98.5	4.13	9.35	28.3%	13.0%	11.7%	34.6%	38.5%	33.3%
2016	2	98.5	4.11	9.35	28.3%	13.0%	11.7%	34.6%	38.5%	33.3%

Lopez is one of the Nationals’ top pitching prospects. He struggled in his first two major league starts, but that’s not unexpected for such a young pitcher. In 17 minor league starts this season (between Double and Triple-A), he posted an ERA under 3.00 with a strikeout rate just under 30%. He projects to be a starter for a long time in the majors and this may be the last time we ever see him priced this low in DFS. Even though I don’t like to pick on the Giants, Lopez is a viable SP2 in all league formats tonight.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball this season, but are facing an unknown quantity in Reynaldo Lopez. The young right-hander has a ton of talent, he just needs some experience in the big leagues. I see this as a boom or bust type of matchup for both the Giants’ offense and for Lopez. Given the fact that San Francisco is an underdog playing in a pitcher’s park, I’m not going to have a lot of exposure to their offense. I do want to mention the acquisition of Eduardo Nunez. He is going to give the Giants a high on-base leadoff man with good speed and decent power.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.0% (2 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.53 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.323	0.119	0.193	3B	$3,700	3B/SS	$4,700
2	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.289	0.107	0.314	OF	$3,000	OF	$5,100
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.366	0.180	0.305	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.351	0.146	0.351	C	$3,400	C	$4,500
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.334	0.204	0.270	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,700
6	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.367	0.194	0.379	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,600
7	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.343	0.157	0.115	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,300
8	Mac Williamson	RIGHT	0.327	0.150	0.386	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
9	Jeff Samardzija	RIGHT	0.203	0.063	0.000	P	$7,900	P	$7,900
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.147	0.257	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals are ranked above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Over the last month of play, they have the fifth highest wOBA of any team in the majors. Their offense seems locked in right now and they should have some success tonight against the struggling Jeff Samardzija. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .357 wOBA to left-handed hitters (why hello Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy).

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.77 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.46 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.326	0.181	0.378	SS	$3,900	2B/OF	$4,000
2	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.294	0.077	0.203	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.431	0.297	0.212	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.382	0.228	0.512	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,400
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.321	0.146	0.415	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,700
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.317	0.152	0.424	C	$3,100	C	$4,900
7	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.287	0.160	0.249	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,400
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.307	0.169	0.243	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.145	0.032	0.000	P	$8,100	P	$6,900
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.160	0.293	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
NY Mets					Detroit
			Noah Syndergaard					Justin Verlander
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -118					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.304	13	27.7%	26.0%	SP vs. Left	0.268	14	22.5%	24.5%
SP vs. Right	0.254	13	25.4%	31.2%	SP vs. Right	0.288	16	26.9%	23.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Noah Syndergaard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$11,200
					FPPG:		39.3	FPPG:		21.9
					Pitcher Rating:		82.0	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	4	104.0	3.72	2.82	28.1%	10.4%	12.3%	41.4%	27.6%	32.2%
2016	20	96.5	2.76	2.48	30.1%	5.0%	14.7%	50.8%	26.2%	29.0%
2015	24	99.2	2.95	3.24	27.5%	5.1%	12.2%	46.5%	33.6%	24.6%

There aren’t many times during the season when the top two rated pitchers in a slate square off against each other. While Syndergaard comes in with the second highest pitcher rating, that doesn’t necessarily make him a great cash game option. I see him as more of an elite GPP play. He has been a force to be reckoned with all season, posting a 2.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.1%. I could easily see him dominating a right-handed heavy Tigers’ lineup tonight, but I would like him a lot more if this game was being played in Citi Field. Not only is Comerica a better hitter’s park, but the Tigers will obviously have a DH instead of a pitcher in the lineup.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Justin Verlander
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$13,600
					FPPG:		39.3	FPPG:		21.7
					Pitcher Rating:		82.0	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	110.2	3.43	1.77	28.0%	7.7%	13.1%	42.0%	34.1%	22.2%
2016	22	107.0	3.61	3.54	26.1%	6.7%	11.8%	36.8%	43.8%	26.5%
2015	20	107.5	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

There is something about ranking Verlander as the top pitching option in a 15-game slate that doesn’t sit right. It’s hard to argue with though, as he has been in tremendous form over the last month of play. In those five starts, he has a 3.43 SIERA (1.77 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 28%. He draws a terrific matchup against the Mets, who are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 22nd in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. As I mentioned earlier, Jameson Taillon is my favorite play in a points per dollar sense, but Verlander has the highest raw projection of any pitcher tonight.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets’ offense has been struggling all season and the loss of Yoenis Cespedes is only going to complicate matters. They come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. While a move to an American League ballpark will allow them to utilize the DH, this is not a great matchup by any means. Over the last two seasons, Verlander has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.72 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.64 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.368	0.223	0.316	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.329	0.169	0.410	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,100
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.338	0.265	0.406	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600
4	James Loney	LEFT	0.329	0.110	0.344	1B	$2,800	1B	$2,700
5	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.354	0.243	0.289	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,600
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.275	0.111	0.268	3B	$2,800	3B	$2,400
7	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.271	0.059	0.408	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,300
8	Alejandro De Aza	LEFT	0.322	0.152	0.451	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,400
9	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.313	0.159	0.244	C	$2,500	C	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.166	0.348	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

The Tigers may be favorites tonight, but this game could easily turn into a pitcher’s duel. Targeting hitters against Noah Syndergaard is not something that I like to do in my free time and I specifically don’t like to do it in daily fantasy. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Syndergaard has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.82 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.86 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.153	0.257	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,100
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.313	0.086	0.409	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.412	0.229	0.571	1B	$3,500	1B	$5,100
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.302	0.152	0.392	C	$2,800	1B	$3,500
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.369	0.243	0.828	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.322	0.176	0.276	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,600
7	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.341	0.203	0.392	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.241	0.069	0.373	C	$2,000	C	$2,600
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.283	0.054	0.266	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.152	0.418	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Minnesota					Tampa Bay
			Ervin Santana					Blake Snell
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -126					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.310	11	28.8%	14.5%	SP vs. Left	0.295	0	35.3%	24.6%
SP vs. Right	0.308	14	28.0%	20.7%	SP vs. Right	0.290	2	26.2%	22.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ervin Santana
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		25.9	FPPG:		13.2
					Pitcher Rating:		58.2	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	5	100.6	4.05	1.73	18.3%	3.7%	8.8%	43.4%	34.0%	24.3%
2016	20	95.5	4.49	3.66	17.2%	6.3%	8.7%	43.2%	36.0%	28.8%
2015	17	98.7	4.43	4.00	17.9%	7.9%	9.5%	40.9%	37.6%	28.1%

Santana has a 1.73 ERA over his last five starts, but his peripheral statistics during that stretch are nearly identical to his season long averages. It will be interesting to see if anyone takes the bait on Santana tonight, because the matchup is certainly in his favor. On the season, the Rays are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 27th in team K% against right-handed pitching. Even though Jameson Taillon will be higher owned, I still prefer him over Santana in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Blake Snell
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$8,700
					FPPG:		31.2	FPPG:		16.1
					Pitcher Rating:		73.7	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	4	99.0	3.48	2.25	30.5%	10.5%	13.4%	44.6%	28.6%	26.8%
2016	9	98.4	4.49	3.08	22.8%	11.6%	9.3%	42.0%	33.3%	28.4%

Snell finally appears to have found his footing at the major league level. In his last four starts, he has a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.5%. The best part is that his price hasn’t fully caught up to his production, which means we can target him at a discount for at least one more game. He is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board tonight, as he takes on the Twins at home. Minnesota does have solid numbers against southpaws this season, but they also have the eighth highest strikeout rate at 23.1%.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

If the Twins were on NBA Jam, they would have just hit their third shot in a row. In other words, they are ON FIRE. They have five hitters in their projected lineup with at least a .355 wOBA over the last 14 days of play. While I do believe in hot streaks in baseball, I don’t love their matchup tonight. Blake Snell is an impressive young left-handed pitcher and they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. Brian Dozier and Kennys Vargas are intriguing one-offs for GPPs, but the rest of the Twins can be avoided.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.330 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.186 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.1% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.95 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.64 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.60 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.373	0.271	0.507	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,800
2	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.367	0.163	0.279	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.393	0.248	0.334	OF	$3,200	3B/OF	$3,300
4	Kennys Vargas	SWITCH	0.451	0.211	0.371	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,200
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.284	0.149	0.519	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500
6	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.324	0.201	0.335	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600
7	Jorge Polanco	RIGHT	0.402	0.267	0.463	3B	$2,600	2B/3B	$2,800
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.306	0.118	0.355	C	$2,100	C	$3,000
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.212	0.096	0.221	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.346	0.192	0.376	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays are favored tonight at home against Ervin Santana, but they come into the game with the tenth lowest run projection in the slate. This isn’t a terrible matchup by any means, but Tampa Bay hasn’t been great against right-handed pitching. With so many great matchups to exploit, I don’t see any elite plays in this lineup. Brad Miller is the closest thing to it, as he has been red-hot (.419 wOBA) in the last couple of weeks.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.180 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.1% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.01 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.90 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.326	0.121	0.310	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,500
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.321	0.179	0.329	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.325	0.189	0.256	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,300
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.345	0.218	0.419	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,100
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.310	0.167	0.240	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
6	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.292	0.141	0.178	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100
7	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.351	0.267	0.286	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,100
8	Nick Franklin	SWITCH	0.282	0.161	0.294	2B	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,100
9	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.292	0.227	0.298	C	$2,500	C	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.186	0.290	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 5th

Stackability Rating System:

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Matt Joyce (if he’s in the lineup)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Starlin Castro

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

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