MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-11 06:13:36

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Detroit at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					NY Yankees
			Mike Pelfrey					CC Sabathia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -140					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.372	10	11.8%	10.4%	SP vs. Left	0.252	4	29.1%	7.4%
SP vs. Right	0.329	11	12.2%	3.6%	SP vs. Right	0.347	26	17.0%	7.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Pelfrey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		17.4	FPPG:		7.0
					Pitcher Rating:		31.9	Pitcher Rank:		28
L14 Days	2	95.5	5.43	1.54	11.8%	9.8%	5.2%	47.4%	31.6%	12.8%
2016	11	94.6	5.16	4.76	12.0%	8.6%	7.9%	48.6%	29.3%	32.2%
2015	30	88.8	4.59	4.26	12.0%	6.3%	5.6%	50.8%	26.4%	26.1%

The first game of the night kicks off with two pitchers that are slightly past their prime. In 11 starts this season, Pelfrey has a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses and he gives up a hard hit contact rate over 30%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Yankees, who have scored 29 runs in their last four games at home. I know we want to get Coors Field batters into our lineup, but that doesn’t mean that we have to take Pelfrey.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		31.4	FPPG:		16.5
					Pitcher Rating:		49.7	Pitcher Rank:		24
L14 Days	3	91.3	4.44	1.00	22.9%	11.4%	9.5%	45.5%	43.2%	22.7%
2016	9	91.8	4.48	2.58	20.6%	10.1%	9.2%	45.5%	37.2%	23.0%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

Sabathia has pitched out of some jams in his last couple of starts. While I always like to see him pitch well, I don’t expect it to last. He is an aging pitcher that has lost velocity and command. That is not a great combination for a pitcher. He draws a very difficult matchup tonight against the Tigers. Sabathia’s biggest weakness has been against right-handed hitters and the Tigers will likely throw nine of them at him tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are ranked ninth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, but when all is said and done, I expect them to be ranked inside the top five. Their matchup against CC Sabathia couldn’t be any better for their lineup construction. Over the last two seasons, Sabathia has allowed a .347 wOBA and 26 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.326 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.163 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.6% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.66 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.52 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.376	0.171	0.395	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,000
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.357	0.144	0.347	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.371	0.179	0.288	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.372	0.132	0.410	C	$3,100	1B	$4,400
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.377	0.265	0.340	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.376	0.237	0.301	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,400
7	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.266	0.118	0.309	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,100
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.384	0.252	0.347	C	$2,200	C	$3,200
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.347	0.103	0.360	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.358	0.178	0.344	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees

The Yankees come into tonight’s game with the fourth highest implied run projection on the board. Their offense should be riding high, after scoring 29 runs against the Angels in their last four games. They have a great chance to keep it rolling tonight against Mike Pelfrey, who has allowed a .372 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.98 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.98 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.317	0.116	0.383	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.334	0.153	0.351	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.359	0.220	0.461	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,100
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.336	0.212	0.282	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$3,800
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.326	0.205	0.213	C	$3,100	C	$4,100
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.292	0.135	0.319	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,900
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.297	0.120	0.248	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.299	0.101	0.297	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,200
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.379	0.348	0.261	1B	$2,200	2B	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.179	0.313	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Alex Rodriguez, Starlin Castro, Chris Parmelee

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Washington
			Jeremy Hellickson					Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -250					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.348	13	18.6%	9.3%	SP vs. Left	0.253	10	30.7%	7.2%
SP vs. Right	0.321	20	22.2%	4.5%	SP vs. Right	0.305	12	30.0%	4.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeremy Hellickson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		31.2	FPPG:		16.6
					Pitcher Rating:		53.8	Pitcher Rank:		20
L14 Days	2	93.5	3.52	3.00	24.5%	6.1%	13.9%	41.9%	29.0%	27.3%
2016	12	92.1	3.56	3.80	24.4%	6.0%	12.6%	42.0%	34.0%	30.8%
2015	27	91.8	4.14	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%

Hellickson has been underrated in the early part of the season. He is off to a great start, posting a 3.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.4% and a walk rate of only 6%. Unfortunately, he plays for the Phillies and is almost always listed as an underdog. He checks into tonight’s game as the largest underdog on the board. He draws a difficult matchup against the Nationals and run support will likely be limited with Stephen Strasburg pitching opposite him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Stephen Strasburg
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$12,000	Salary:		$13,500
					FPPG:		47.5	FPPG:		26.0
					Pitcher Rating:		99.1	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	2	100.5	3.42	3.18	29.2%	8.3%	10.0%	40.0%	53.3%	23.3%
2016	12	103.2	2.92	2.85	31.6%	6.9%	11.6%	44.5%	36.6%	25.8%
2015	23	88.8	2.76	3.46	29.6%	5.0%	11.2%	42.2%	34.3%	28.9%

When I first looked at the pitcher ratings that my model spits our for me each day, I had to do a double take – Kershaw wasn’t ranked #1. I then saw that Strasburg beat him out by .1 percentage point in terms of their overall rating tonight. The way Kershaw is pitching right now, it’s hard to argue against him. However, Strasburg is pitching at home and he draws the better matchup of the two. On the season, the Phillies are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 18th in team K% against right-handed pitching. Strasburg should dominate tonight and pick up an easy win.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have struggled offensively all season, averaging the second fewest runs scored per game. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Stephen Strasburg, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA over the last two seasons. This one is pretty simple – don’t target bad offenses against elite pitchers.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.288 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.20 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.64 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.357	0.133	0.306	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,000
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.291	0.084	0.316	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,400
3	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.346	0.318	0.406	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,600
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.336	0.190	0.256	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,700
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.287	0.140	0.331	C	$2,400	C	$2,100
6	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.300	0.173	0.282	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.291	0.125	0.247	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,500
8	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.300	0.173	0.282	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.237	0.000	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$7,600
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.148	0.270	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals have the 12th highest team total on the board tonight, as they square off against Jeremy Hellickson at home. Since Hellickson has looked like a different pitcher this season, I am placing more of an emphasis on his recent splits. In 2016, he has held right-handed hitters to a .300 wOBA while allowing a .369 wOBA to left-handed hitters. The two-man wrecking crew of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy remain elite plays.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.56 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.36 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.300	0.073	0.210	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.281	0.135	0.365	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.455	0.333	0.349	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,600
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.377	0.217	0.406	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,900
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.308	0.182	0.427	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,700
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.300	0.143	0.469	C	$3,600	C	$3,800
7	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.311	0.125	0.437	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,200
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.298	0.171	0.397	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,100
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.145	0.000	0.000	P	$12,000	P	$13,500
	Team Averages	—	0.308	0.153	0.340	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
St. Louis					Pittsburgh
			Michael Wacha					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -150					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.286	9	19.4%	8.2%	SP vs. Left	0.281	6	24.0%	6.6%
SP vs. Right	0.320	15	20.5%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.279	8	21.8%	4.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Wacha
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		23.6	FPPG:		11.4
					Pitcher Rating:		53.1	Pitcher Rank:		22
L14 Days	2	86.0	4.19	5.73	22.2%	6.7%	9.3%	21.9%	43.8%	28.1%
2016	12	94.0	4.32	5.16	19.8%	8.5%	7.9%	42.5%	30.0%	31.1%
2015	30	97.9	4.02	3.37	20.1%	7.6%	9.5%	45.8%	32.0%	29.7%

Wacha is not having his best season. In 12 starts, he has a 4.32 SIERA (5.16 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 19.8%. His swinging strike rate and ground ball rate are both down from where they were a year ago. While I like the fact that his price has come down across the industry, I will wait for him to flash some form or for a favorable matchup at home. I have little interest in Wacha on the road against the Pirates.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Gerrit Cole
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		32.0	FPPG:		16.2
					Pitcher Rating:		83.6	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	3	105.3	4.22	3.00	15.9%	7.3%	7.6%	52.4%	20.6%	23.8%
2016	11	101.1	4.27	2.85	18.6%	6.8%	7.9%	42.8%	31.8%	28.5%
2015	32	101.2	3.23	2.60	24.3%	5.3%	10.2%	48.0%	29.6%	29.5%

Where, oh where have the strikeouts all gone? Oh where, oh where could they be?

Cole has a low ERA this season, but eventually those balls put into play are going to start finding holes and gaps. His strikeout rate is down 6% from where is was last season and he is generating a very mediocre swinging strike rate of 18.6%. While he is pitching at home tonight, he draws a tough matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching. I will be avoiding Cole in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have an underrated offense, but they draw a difficult matchup against Gerrit Cole in the pitcher friendly PNC Park. Over the last two seasons, Cole has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. With so many offenses projected to score more runs tonight, the Cardinals bats are GPP fliers at best.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.351 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.206 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.51 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.71 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.399	0.261	0.469	2B	$4,300	3B	$5,000
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.389	0.234	0.310	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,500
3	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.344	0.199	0.445	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,300
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.345	0.167	0.319	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200
5	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.331	0.119	0.610	3B	$2,800	SS	$3,200
6	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.335	0.250	0.544	1B	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,600
7	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.304	0.096	0.152	C	$2,700	C	$2,700
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.356	0.259	0.201	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
9	Michael Wacha	RIGHT	0.141	0.017	0.523	P	$7,200	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.178	0.397	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are sizable favorites tonight, but they have a mediocre team total of 4.29 runs. They are facing a struggling Michael Wacha, who hasn’t been nearly as sharp as he was in years past. If you are targeting anyone from the Pirates, give an edge to the right-handed hitters. Wacha has some serious reverse-splits, allowing a .320 wOBA to righties over the last two seasons.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.336 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.88 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.29 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.359	0.160	0.307	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.365	0.193	0.279	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.345	0.164	0.358	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,300
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.355	0.159	0.392	OF	$3,200	OF	$5,000
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.371	0.201	0.416	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,100
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.310	0.103	0.357	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,900
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.321	0.079	0.277	C	$2,200	C	$3,100
8	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.305	0.164	0.289	OF	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,200
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.107	0.000	0.833	P	$9,000	P	$7,000
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.136	0.390	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Toronto
			Kevin Gausman					Marco Estrada
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -157					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.267	6	25.2%	6.3%	SP vs. Left	0.266	19	18.2%	7.8%
SP vs. Right	0.360	20	19.2%	5.8%	SP vs. Right	0.267	12	20.2%	8.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kevin Gausman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		27.6	FPPG:		15.5
					Pitcher Rating:		52.6	Pitcher Rank:		23
L14 Days	3	107.0	3.30	5.29	27.0%	6.8%	11.8%	45.8%	31.3%	24.5%
2016	9	102.8	3.72	3.52	22.3%	5.8%	11.1%	45.9%	34.4%	26.4%
2015	17	110.4	3.69	4.25	21.9%	6.2%	10.9%	44.4%	38.1%	27.4%

Gausman has some nice numbers so far this season. In nine starts, he has a 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.3%. While there are certainly spots when we can use him in DFS, this is not one of them. Not only does he have to face the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, but the splits don’t line up well for him in this matchup. He is a reverse-splits pitcher and the Blue Jays best hitters bat from the right side of the plate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$10,700
					FPPG:		36.5	FPPG:		20.6
					Pitcher Rating:		57.0	Pitcher Rank:		18
L14 Days	2	109.0	4.97	1.13	19.3%	10.5%	7.8%	30.8%	51.3%	32.5%
2016	11	102.2	4.50	2.41	21.5%	9.9%	9.7%	36.2%	48.5%	31.3%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Estrada has been the Blue Jays best pitcher so far this season. In 11 starts, he has a 2.41 ERA with a strikeout rate of 21.5%. While those numbers are certainly impressive, it’s hard to imagine him keeping a .191 BABIP for the rest of the season. Estrada generally has a lower BABIP than the major league average, but his career average is .255. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that could struggle against a powerful Orioles’ lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles may not have the best matchup on the board, but if we have learned anything from Baltimore, it’s that they always make a great stack in tournaments. They are facing an extreme fly-ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. That alone makes them worthy of GPP consideration. I will be avoiding the Orioles in cash games though, as Marco Estrada has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.344 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.200 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.74 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.17 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.338	0.211	0.350	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.405	0.105	0.357	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.390	0.255	0.370	SS	$3,600	3B/SS	$3,700
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.395	0.321	0.277	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,400
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.346	0.203	0.504	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,300
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.334	0.157	0.280	C	$2,900	C	$2,700
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.354	0.230	0.247	2B	$3,000	2B	$2,800
8	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.334	0.231	0.372	3B	$2,700	1B	$2,700
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.277	0.139	0.344	2B	$2,700	3B	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.353	0.206	0.345	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest run projection. Their matchup against Kevin Gausman looks like it favors the Blue Jays when you look at his splits. Over the last two seasons, Gausman has allowed a .360 wOBA and 20 home runs to right-handed hitters. The best part is that with a game in Coors Field tonight, Toronto’s offense will be lower owned that it otherwise would be. Jose Bautista left last night’s game early with hamstring tightness. Make sure he is in the lineup if you are considering him tonight.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.83 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.385	0.285	0.303	OF	$4,400	OF	$3,900
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.383	0.259	0.436	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.371	0.261	0.338	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.338	0.157	0.308	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.339	0.223	0.332	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,100
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.300	0.176	0.326	C	$2,600	C	$2,800
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.304	0.129	0.312	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.343	0.160	0.217	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,200
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.364	0.160	0.373	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.347	0.201	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin

Stackability – GPP

Houston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Houston					Tampa Bay
			Lance McCullers					Matt Andriese
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -110					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.268	3	29.4%	8.7%	SP vs. Left	0.305	5	15.8%	6.8%
SP vs. Right	0.321	8	22.0%	10.5%	SP vs. Right	0.277	4	17.9%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Lance McCullers
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$10,300
					FPPG:		38.2	FPPG:		18.9
					Pitcher Rating:		82.8	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	3	104.0	3.83	3.18	32.9%	16.5%	13.5%	64.1%	15.4%	20.0%
2016	5	98.6	3.96	4.23	29.4%	15.1%	12.6%	59.4%	18.8%	27.1%
2015	22	95.9	3.57	3.22	24.8%	8.3%	9.8%	46.5%	31.8%	28.9%

McCullers has incredible upside, but he is a wild pitcher that really struggles with his command. On the season, he has a 3.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.4% and a walk rate of 15.1%. Basically, you are getting the good and the bad when you roster McCullers. He is not a great cash game target (especially at his price) and I’m not sure that you need to look at him in tournaments either. While the upside is there, I find myself leaning toward other pitching options.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Andriese
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$8,700
					FPPG:		34.7	FPPG:		18.8
					Pitcher Rating:		64.1	Pitcher Rank:		14
L14 Days	2	91.0	3.78	2.25	16.3%	4.1%	8.8%	54.1%	21.6%	33.3%
2016	6	95.7	4.23	2.52	16.2%	5.2%	8.7%	50.0%	31.4%	35.8%
2015	8	136.0	4.02	4.11	17.4%	6.4%	8.6%	48.1%	34.8%	32.9%

Andriese has been a serviceable starter for the Rays this season, posting a 4.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.2%. While we do need to save some salary cap somewhere if we are planning on using an ace with some Coors Field hitters, Andriese seems a bit overpriced on DraftKings. The Astros may strikeout at a high rate, but they are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are an offense that most people will just gloss over tonight. I will likely be doing the same. They draw a mediocre matchup against Matt Andriese in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. Over the last two seasons, Andriese has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. While I don’t hate the Astros, they seem a bit overpriced in this matchup.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.2% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.30 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.346	0.182	0.428	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,200
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.341	0.157	0.441	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,400
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.354	0.204	0.358	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,300
4	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.329	0.226	0.235	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
5	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.346	0.220	0.408	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,400
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.316	0.222	0.291	C	$3,500	C	$4,100
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.292	0.141	0.351	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
8	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.290	0.126	0.277	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,000
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.326	0.198	0.323	C	$2,400	C	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.186	0.346	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays are small underdogs tonight at home against Lance McCullers. While he does struggle with his command at times, he has an elite strikeout rate. The one potential weakness for McCullers is right-handed hitters – allowing a .321 wOBA and eight home runs to righties in his last 27 starts.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.1% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.19 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.202	0.111	0.179	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$2,000
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.335	0.183	0.275	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.318	0.178	0.491	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,300
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.324	0.188	0.381	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,600
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.334	0.193	0.408	OF	$2,900	1B/2B	$3,200
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.368	0.293	0.336	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
7	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.320	0.177	0.266	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
8	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.334	0.199	0.493	C	$2,100	C	$2,700
9	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.284	0.189	0.273	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.190	0.345	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 10th

Detroit at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Alex Rodriguez, Starlin Castro, Chris Parmelee

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin

Stackability – GPP

Houston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce

Stackability – NONE

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