MLB Grind Down: Opening Day

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-03-29 14:48:51

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Welcome to the season’s first MLB Grind Down. If you are new to RotoGrinders or new to MLB DFS, my goal in this article to break down every single game of the season. I have a few notes before we get into the Opening Day slate. The first is that my brain is a little fried with the three-sport overlap (NBA, PGA, and MLB), so have some patience if you find a mistake or two (or 15) in the article. Feel free to post a comment and I’ll get any errors fixed. The second is that we have different slates across the industry. Most of the sites have early-only slates that include the first three games. I’ll try to give my thoughts on each, but it can be difficult when every site has unique slates. And finally, I want this article to be the best it can possibly be, so if there are any statistics that you’d like to see added or any improvements that you think would improve the Grind Down, feel free to let me know.

Without further adieu, let’s get into it!

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 12:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Miami
			Jon Lester							Jose Urena
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-170							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.237	0.235	25.5%	2.9%	34.1%	55.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.375	34.3%	10.0%	10.9%	37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.344	0.320	28.8%	9.3%	20.6%	43.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.306	29.0%	7.7%	20.3%	49.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%

Lester is coming off of a mediocre 2017 campaign. His strikeout rate (24%) was well above the major league average, but his SIERA and ERA were both over 4.00. On paper, a matchup against a powerless Marlins’ lineup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark looks appealing, but I’m not overly excited about the idea of rostering a chalky Lester in a three-game slate. The Marlins have plenty of speed in their lineup and Lester is a bottom-five pitcher when it comes to holding runners.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is fine for cash games, but I will be looking to pivot off of him in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Urena
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		26 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	5.19	3.82	15.6%	8.8%	43.1%	31.8%	18.6%

The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball. While they have a few high strikeout bats in their lineup, it’s not like Urena is a pitcher that is going to take advantage of it. He finished the 2017 season with a 16% strikeout rate and an 8% swinging strike rate. Marlins Park tends to favor pitchers, but Urena is a large underdog that is facing a powerful offense. If you are new to fantasy baseball, you only want to take shots on cheap pitchers that have strikeout upside.

Quick Breakdown: Urena is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a potent offense and an exploitable matchup against Jose Urena. I’m not overly concerned about the ballpark, but if you are looking to pay up for pitching in the early slate, you might not be able to afford to stack the Cubs. I’d rather pick my spots with this Chicago lineup. Looking at Urena’s splits last season, we should give a big edge to the left-handed batters. He allowed a .345 xwOBA, a 34% hard contact rate, and a 10% walk rate to lefties in 2017. Kyle Schwarber is a player that I’m high on entering the season. In case you missed it, he shed a few pounds in the offseason.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.357	0.349	0.286	36.1%	11.3%	32.3%	41.8%	OF	$3,300	2B/OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.397	0.367	0.249	31.9%	12.6%	20.5%	37.7%	3B	$4,300	3B/OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.382	0.400	0.230	34.4%	14.3%	12.7%	39.7%	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.351	0.345	0.214	36.1%	8.5%	25.1%	53.4%	C	$3,200	C/OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.343	0.361	0.276	38.4%	11.1%	29.9%	38.7%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.290	0.297	0.177	32.7%	5.7%	23.3%	39.2%	SS	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.320	0.319	0.139	26.6%	10.3%	11.4%	48.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.307	0.286	0.186	29.8%	5.9%	29.3%	50.4%	2B	$3,300	2B/SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.188	0.216	0.079	32.0%	4.5%	38.6%	59.1%	P	$9,300	P	$10,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Kris Bryant

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins’ offense is terrible. They are going to be a team to target pitchers against the entire season. They come into this game with a low implied run total and a matchup against Jon Lester doesn’t look appealing on paper. With that said, I already mentioned Lester’s struggles with baserunners. The Marlins may not have power, but they do have some decent speed at the top of their lineup. Lewis Brinson, Derek Dietrich, and potentially Cameron Maybin will look to be aggressive if they get on base. I won’t be going overboard with the Marlins, but they provide much-needed value if you are paying up at pitcher in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.384	0.494	0.400	40.0%	16.7%	27.8%	50.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.362	0.369	0.107	21.1%	6.9%	20.7%	43.9%	3B	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.358	0.323	0.142	31.3%	7.8%	20.0%	50.6%	2B	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.342	0.295	0.230	25.4%	10.2%	29.6%	55.9%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.240	0.346	0.034	26.3%	3.3%	33.3%	36.8%	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Tomas Telis	SWITCH	0.182	0.239	0.087	30.4%	3.8%	3.8%	30.4%	1B	$2,000	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.280	0.283	0.069	34.1%	7.2%	20.0%	57.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.306	0.325	0.122	23.9%	9.5%	9.5%	37.9%	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Urena	RIGHT	0.000	0.038	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	72.7%	50.0%	P	$5,600	P	$5,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Lewis Brinson

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Cameron Maybin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								NY Mets
			Carlos Martinez							Noah Syndergaard
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-142							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.337	0.316	35.3%	10.4%	21.3%	50.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.206	0.267	37.8%	3.2%	36.5%	40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.252	28.7%	6.2%	29.2%	51.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.252	24.5%	1.6%	18.0%	70.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Martinez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	3.85	3.64	25.3%	8.3%	51.3%	32.1%	19.4%

This is the game to target pitchers from in the early slate. If you are planning to fade Jon Lester in tournaments, Carlos Martinez is a great pivot. He checks in as a large underdog, but that’s not a huge concern. We often place too big of an emphasis on the Vegas line and on run prevention when it comes to starting pitching in DFS. In reality, all we really need to concern ourselves with is strikeouts. Martinez finished the 2017 season with a 25% strikeout rate and an 11% swinging strike rate. He keeps the ball on the ground and may end up having the platoon advantage against the Mets.

Quick Breakdown: Martinez is an elite tournament play on single-pitcher sites and viable in all formats on multi-pitcher sites.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Noah Syndergaard
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$12,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:		2 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	7	2.74	2.97	27.4%	2.4%	57.6%	30.2%	16.3%

Syndergaard has as much talent as any pitcher in baseball and he has proven that when healthy. The problem is that he has struggled to stay on the field. After a dominate 2016 campaign, he only made seven starts in 2017. Even though the sample size was small, he still impressed with a 27% strikeout rate. He has one of the lowest walk rates in baseball and has an elite ground ball rate. The high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and high ground ball rate is a lethal combination for a pitcher, both in real life and in DFS. The Cardinals haven’t been a high-strikeout offense over the years, but their projected lineup has a combined 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Syndergaard is clearly the best pitcher for the early slate and I will gladly eat the chalk in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

If this game was included in the main slate, I would tell you to avoid the Cardinals and move on to the next lineup. With only three games in the early slate, we have limited options at every position and very few ways to gain leverage on the field in tournaments. I’m not saying that I feel great about the Cardinals, but this is baseball where variance reigns supreme. I personally won’t be targeting the Cardinals against Noah Syndergaard, but I’m not going to talk anyone off of a Dexter Fowler or Matt Carpenter in tournaments. Much like Jon Lester, Syndergaard is one of the worst pitchers in baseball at holding runners.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.368	0.350	0.243	38.0%	13.5%	22.4%	37.3%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.396	0.370	0.201	34.9%	12.4%	22.6%	51.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.378	0.379	0.235	43.5%	17.9%	19.2%	24.5%	1B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.400	0.366	0.268	39.7%	9.0%	21.9%	45.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.307	0.314	0.135	33.5%	5.4%	14.7%	44.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
6	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.351	0.334	0.231	36.2%	3.7%	26.8%	32.5%	SS	$2,800	2B/SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.327	0.309	0.178	30.4%	10.1%	24.5%	41.3%	3B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.343	0.322	0.142	28.5%	9.5%	13.5%	46.2%	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Carlos Martinez	RIGHT	0.126	0.135	0.000	7.7%	1.8%	28.1%	81.3%	P	$7,900	P	$11,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler (GPP), Matt Carpenter (GPP)

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

I’m obviously higher on the pitchers than I am on the hitters in this game. On multi-pitcher sites, I like the idea of playing both Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Martinez in hopes of getting a pitcher’s duel. When it comes to the Mets, we can immediately rule out the right-handed hitters. Martinez held righties to a .252 xwOBA and a 52% ground ball rate in 2017. Meanwhile, he gave up a .316 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to lefties. Brandon Nimmo, Jay Bruce, and Asdrubal Cabrera are at the very least intriguing low-owned tournament targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.377	0.381	0.193	38.5%	16.3%	24.7%	43.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.370	0.368	0.221	40.8%	7.7%	17.2%	36.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.369	0.371	0.273	42.9%	10.0%	21.1%	32.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.324	0.349	0.173	29.7%	14.6%	22.0%	38.0%	3B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.293	0.324	0.136	35.1%	6.4%	16.8%	36.4%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.315	0.336	0.167	36.5%	9.9%	16.3%	41.0%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.287	0.297	0.191	33.3%	4.7%	15.1%	38.7%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.264	0.230	0.125	22.7%	1.5%	30.3%	50.0%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Noah Syndergaard	RIGHT	0.348	0.338	0.000	75.0%	27.3%	36.4%	50.0%	P	$10,300	P	$12,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP), Asdrubal Cabrera (GPP)

Stackability –

Minnesota at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Baltimore
			Jake Odorizzi							Dylan Bundy
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-122							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.303	30.7%	9.5%	20.5%	27.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.328	0.337	39.9%	7.8%	16.8%	30.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.333	41.4%	10.6%	21.4%	32.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	0.296	32.9%	6.9%	26.3%	35.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$12,700
	Salary Rank:		15 of 28	Salary Rank:		15 of 28	Salary Rank:		12 of 28
	2017	28	4.90	4.14	21.0%	10.1%	30.6%	36.8%	15.3%

Odorizzi will be making his first start in a non-Rays uniform since 2012. He is coming off of a subpar 2017 season where he posted a 4.90 SIERA with a walk rate of 10%. Throughout his career, he has been a fly-ball pitcher with reverse-splits, which does not bode well for his Opening Day matchup against the Orioles. Baltimore hit the fifth most home runs in 2017 and should have another good year when it comes to the long ball. Odorizzi is not only an underdog on the road, but the Orioles have the highest implied run total of any team on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Odorizzi in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		16 of 28	Salary Rank:		13 of 28	Salary Rank:		8 of 28
	2017	28	4.45	4.24	21.8%	7.3%	32.8%	36.5%	17.6%

I have no choice but to picture Al Bundy from Married with Children every time I see Dylan Bundy on the mound. Since I can’t seem to shake the image, I thought I’d share it with you. While everyone would love to play two aces on Opening Day, it’s tough to fill out a roster of capable hitters on a limited budget. Bundy offers nice strikeout upside at a discounted price point. He also has a high fly-ball rate and allows a lot of home runs, but I’m willing to take the risk. Bundy finished the 2017 season with a 22 strikeout rate, which was accompanied by an 11% swinging strike rate. While the Twins have plenty of power in their lineup, they are no stranger to strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is a viable SP2 in tournaments and potentially even in cash games for the risk-tolerant DFS players out there.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Baseball is one of the only sports where you can like both sides of a matchup. Dylan Bundy has strikeout upside against a strikeout-prone Twins’ lineup, but they provide plenty of upside themselves. Bundy is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. A quick glance at the lineup below and you can see that the Twins’ lineup is full of power hitters. Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, and Logan Morrison are all great values on FanDuel and I don’t mind completing the stack with Brian Dozier or Miguel Sano. For cash games, I will probably avoid both sides, but for tournaments I plan to get some exposure to Bundy and the Twins’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.339	0.334	0.203	33.2%	10.6%	20.3%	37.6%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,500
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.354	0.399	0.127	40.8%	12.0%	13.5%	49.8%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,700
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.346	0.344	0.223	45.5%	10.6%	37.3%	39.6%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,700	IF/OF	$8,700
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.377	0.365	0.268	34.1%	7.4%	17.5%	38.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,400
5	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.374	0.366	0.298	40.4%	13.6%	25.2%	33.1%	1B	$2,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$7,500
6	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.324	0.308	0.216	33.6%	5.9%	20.9%	33.3%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,300	SS	$6,200
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.350	0.335	0.212	36.0%	9.3%	17.2%	41.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,400
8	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.300	0.294	0.166	27.2%	5.8%	31.0%	39.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	CF	$6,600
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.313	0.329	0.146	34.9%	12.5%	29.0%	40.2%	C	$2,000	C	$3,000	C	$5,900

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison (FD)

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison (DK), Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the top stacks of the slate. As mentioned above, they have plenty of firepower in their lineup and they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Jake Odorizzi is a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact, especially to right-handed hitters (41% in 2017). Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machdo, Adam Jones, and Trey Mancini all bat from the right side and are projected to bat one through five, which sets up perfectly for a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.336	0.339	0.176	40.3%	5.6%	29.6%	48.7%	3B	$2,800	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.341	0.317	0.184	35.1%	4.1%	20.0%	41.8%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,500
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.322	0.360	0.203	37.7%	7.5%	16.9%	42.7%	SS	$3,900	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,100
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.340	0.323	0.188	30.2%	3.4%	17.5%	45.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.362	0.358	0.223	34.1%	6.4%	23.5%	51.4%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.329	0.348	0.250	45.1%	12.5%	36.1%	37.7%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,400
7	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.297	0.284	0.145	26.1%	5.7%	25.9%	49.2%	1B	$2,200	1B/3B	$3,100	3B	$6,400
8	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.287	0.267	0.135	25.0%	3.5%	26.5%	48.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,600
9	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.375	0.328	0.291	44.4%	6.0%	32.5%	32.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Texas – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Texas
			Justin Verlander							Cole Hamels
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-150							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.314	35.8%	10.4%	28.4%	31.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.215	0.287	28.9%	4.7%	16.5%	60.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.304	33.4%	6.8%	23.4%	35.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.335	37.9%	9.7%	17.3%	43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$21,900
	Salary Rank:		6 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28	Salary Rank:		2 of 28
	2017	33	4.05	3.36	25.8%	8.5%	33.5%	34.5%	17.5%

Verlander struggled in the first half of the 2017 season, but came alive down the stretch and was a big reason why the Astros won the World Series. He opens his season in a hitter-friendly environment, but a matchup against the Rangers does provide strikeout upside. The one thing we know about Verlander is that he is going to throw a lot of strikes and look to attack hitters in every at-bat. The current projected lineup for Texas had a combined 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander isn’t my favorite ace, but he will come at lower ownership than most, which puts him on my radar for tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Cole Hamels
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$13,400
	Salary Rank:		18 of 28	Salary Rank:		16 of 28	Salary Rank:		11 of 28
	2017	24	4.90	4.20	17.1%	8.6%	47.5%	35.7%	13.7%

Hamels had a 4.20 ERA last season that didn’t exactly tell the whole story. He was “lucky” to have an ERA that low, as his BABIP was low and his SIERA (4.90) was significantly higher. He was tough on left-handed hitters, but really struggled with right-handed bats. On the season, he allowed a .335 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate and a 10% walk rate. The Astros’ lineup is not only right-handed heavy, but they led the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching last season.

Quick Breakdown: Hamels is one of the least appealing pitchers of the slate and can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are one of the top stacks of the slate. They are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and get to face Cole Hamels, who really struggled against right-handed hitters last season. If you look at this lineup as a whole, they had a combined .354 xwOBA against left-handed pitching last season. George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa make a great four-man stack and they are all elite plays individually. Marwin Gonzalez offers decent value on FanDuel and Evan Gattis could make a sneaky tournament play at catcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.413	0.428	0.248	36.8%	14.6%	12.2%	43.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,000
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.406	0.384	0.239	30.9%	10.5%	13.0%	32.0%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,600
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.412	0.350	0.209	25.2%	9.0%	12.9%	48.7%	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,200	2B	$9,100
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.445	0.460	0.217	43.2%	11.4%	11.4%	51.9%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,900	SS	$9,500
5	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.331	0.302	0.087	23.0%	6.9%	18.8%	35.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,500
6	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.340	0.333	0.217	26.0%	8.2%	17.9%	42.7%	1B	$2,700	OF/SS	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
7	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.321	0.365	0.186	19.1%	9.9%	11.7%	48.8%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,600
8	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.306	0.324	0.207	34.3%	5.4%	16.1%	41.1%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,400
9	Derek Fisher	LEFT	0.290	0.238	0.069	11.1%	12.1%	33.3%	75.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,300

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

The Rangers are going to be an interesting offense this season. On paper, they have a decent amount of power in their lineup, but they could struggle to get runners on base. Seven of their nine projected starters on Opening Day have a strikeout rate of at least 20%. Justin Verlander is a fly-ball pitcher, but he didn’t allow many runs in the second half of last season. He’s a high-strikeout pitcher, which doesn’t exactly bode well for the swing-away nature of this lineup. I’ll have interest moving forward, but will be avoiding the Rangers in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.309	0.285	0.070	23.8%	9.4%	22.4%	49.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
2	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.364	0.374	0.350	46.7%	14.4%	35.9%	28.9%	1B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,900	IF/OF	$8,400
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.340	0.324	0.164	29.4%	5.2%	14.8%	49.5%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,500
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.363	0.338	0.212	35.2%	8.5%	14.4%	43.8%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,300
5	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.332	0.335	0.193	34.4%	9.9%	20.1%	42.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,700
6	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.338	0.368	0.190	40.4%	11.6%	22.4%	45.1%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,300
7	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.334	0.345	0.234	33.8%	10.1%	26.9%	43.5%	C	$2,200	C	$3,100	C	$5,800
8	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.297	0.312	0.223	38.6%	5.6%	24.9%	38.9%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,400
9	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.256	0.253	0.118	23.7%	11.7%	39.0%	42.1%	OF	$2,000	1B/OF	$2,600	IF/OF	$4,500

MLB Grind Down: Opening Day

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 12:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Kris Bryant

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Lewis Brinson

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Cameron Maybin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler (GPP), Matt Carpenter (GPP)

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP), Asdrubal Cabrera (GPP)

Stackability –

Minnesota at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison (FD)

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison (DK), Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Texas – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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