MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-19 02:03:11

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Boston at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Boston					Detroit
			Clay Buchholz					Matt Boyd
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -125					9.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.318	9	27.4%	19.7%	SP vs. Left	0.398	8	33.7%	13.5%
SP vs. Right	0.309	14	24.6%	18.2%	SP vs. Right	0.348	19	32.9%	20.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clay Buchholz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		12.3	FPPG:		5.4
					Pitcher Rating:		38.5	Pitcher Rank:		22
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	1	207.0	5.58	4.30	10.9%	7.3%	7.3%	31.1%	48.9%	22.2%
2016	14	112.0	5.34	5.66	14.5%	10.1%	9.3%	40.7%	42.7%	28.5%
2015	18	95.3	3.35	3.26	22.8%	4.9%	10.6%	48.3%	30.5%	23.7%

Buchholz has not been sharp this season, posting a 5.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.5% and a walk rate of 10.1%. His swinging strike rate is down, while his hard hit and fly ball percentage are both up. He is listed as a small underdog today against the Tigers in Detroit in a game that features an over/under of 9.5 runs. I won’t have any shares of Buchholz, but the argument for him is that he will face mostly right-handed hitters and he has held righties under a .300 wOBA this season.

Matt Boyd
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		23.7	FPPG:		12.1
					Pitcher Rating:		46.9	Pitcher Rank:		18
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	100.8	4.43	2.82	20.7%	7.6%	9.2%	39.1%	53.1%	32.8%
2016	11	98.5	4.42	4.16	20.1%	8.0%	8.5%	39.7%	43.5%	32.1%
2015	12	83.6	4.83	7.53	17.1%	7.9%	8.2%	31.9%	51.9%	34.0%

In his last four starts, Boyd has a 2.82 ERA with a strikeout rate of 20.7%. His peripherals stats during that stretch are nearly identical to his season averages though, so we shouldn’t put too much stock into that low ERA. There is always talk that the Red Sox can’t hit left-handed pitching, but on the season they are ranked first in team wOBA and tenth in team ISO. If you are playing the early only slate, just take Jake Arrieta and move on.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox come into this game with the sixth highest run projection of the 22 teams in action today. They may not be playing at home in Fenway, but this is still one of the most exploitable matchups on the schedule. In the last two seasons combined, Matt Boyd has allowed a .398 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .348 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Boyd is also a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact.

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.350 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (10 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 18.4% (4 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.90 (9 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.51 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.60 (6 of 22)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Aaron Hill, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are small favorites today and they currently have the second highest run projection on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against the struggling Clay Buchholz and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Comerica Park. The only concern is that even through his struggles, Buchholz has held right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA this season.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (10 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (19 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (13 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.61 (12 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.90 (2 of 22)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Erick Aybar, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Milwaukee					Chicago Cubs
			Zach Davies					Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -300					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.312	9	31.1%	17.9%	SP vs. Left	0.223	6	26.8%	28.1%
SP vs. Right	0.287	7	33.6%	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.243	13	21.0%	24.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Davies
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		29.0	FPPG:		14.7
					Pitcher Rating:		42.3	Pitcher Rank:		21
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	93.8	4.47	3.86	16.1%	4.8%	7.5%	43.3%	35.1%	31.6%
2016	21	92.7	4.17	3.80	19.0%	5.9%	7.7%	46.5%	32.6%	32.5%

Davies hasn’t been in the best of form over the last month, posting a 4.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.1%. He doesn’t generate many swings and misses and he has given up a hard hit contact rate of 32.5% on the season. He is an easy fade today against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. Not only is he the biggest underdog on the board today, but the Cubs are ranked sixth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. There is really only one viable pitching option in the early slate and it’s not Davies.

Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$12,900
					FPPG:		40.6	FPPG:		22.6
					Pitcher Rating:		89.5	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	99.8	3.93	2.14	21.4%	6.9%	8.4%	51.6%	32.3%	29.0%
2016	23	101.6	3.70	2.55	25.0%	8.7%	10.4%	53.2%	27.9%	25.9%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

If you are playing in the early slate, be prepared to see Arrieta owned at a ridiculously high level. He is the only option worth looking at in cash games and it’s tough justifying any of the other three pitchers over him in tournaments. In 23 starts this season, Arrieta has a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, who have the highest strikeout rate (25.6%) of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers coming into today’s game with the second lowest implied team total on the board. The only reason to even consider any Brewers’ hitters is the wind in Wrigley that is blowing out to left-center at around 10 MPH. I wouldn’t consider any of the Brewers in cash games, but you could potentially look at Jonathan Villar or Ryan Braun as one-off targets in GPPs.

• Brewers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (21 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (22 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 25.6% (30 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.04 (2 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.06 (24 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.10 (21 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the highest run projection of any team on the schedule today. They are projected to score 5.4 runs, which is a total that we would usually see in Coors Field. They draw a decent matchup against Zach Davies and they get to face him at home with the wind blowing out to left-center. In the last two seasons, Davies has allowed a 31.1% hard hit contact rate to left-handed hitters and a 33.6% hard hit contact rate to right-handed hitters.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (6 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.1% (23 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.99 (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.07 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.40 (1 of 22)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Matt Szczur, Jorge Soler, Willson Contreras

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Houston					Baltimore
			Joe Musgrove					Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -125					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.302	1	27.8%	25.9%	SP vs. Left	0.286	11	29.3%	25.1%
SP vs. Right	0.159	0	30.8%	35.0%	SP vs. Right	0.363	27	29.2%	20.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Musgrove
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		40.3	FPPG:		24.3
					Pitcher Rating:		70.1	Pitcher Rank:		7
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	2	96.5	2.59	1.47	31.3%	3.0%	11.2%	38.6%	40.9%	29.6%
2016	2	96.5	2.59	1.47	31.3%	3.0%	11.2%	38.6%	40.9%	29.6%

Musgrove has wasted little time getting acclimated to the big leagues. In his first three appearances, he has a 2.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.3% and a walk rate of only 3%. The most impressive part is that he has faced the Blue Jays, Rangers, and then the Blue Jays again in those three outings. Musgrove throws a lot of off-speed pitches, using his fastball only 53% of the time, while mixing in a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. He has huge upside relative to his price and may be my favorite tournament play on the board. The Orioles hit right-handed pitching well, but they also have the ninth highest strikeout rate this season.

Kevin Gausman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,700
					FPPG:		28.5	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		76.7	Pitcher Rank:		5
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	100.0	4.13	4.00	28.5%	12.9%	10.4%	31.3%	40.3%	30.9%
2016	21	101.4	3.85	4.04	23.5%	6.8%	10.8%	41.3%	36.1%	31.0%
2015	17	110.4	3.69	4.25	21.9%	6.2%	10.9%	44.4%	38.1%	27.4%

Gausman has been flying under the proverbial radar all season, despite posting a 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.5% pitching in a tough division. Throughout his career, he has been much better at home than he has been on the road. If you are comparing the two pitchers in this game, Gausman is probably the better cash game option because he is more of a known quantity at this point. He draws a decent matchup against the Astros, who have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Gausman is a strong play in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros come into tonight’s game with the eighth lowest implied team total on the board. Their offense has really been struggling recently, especially after you get past Carlos Correa batting clean-up. They do see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards, but the matchup against Kevin Gausman is less than ideal. The one positive in this matchup is that Gausman is a reverse-splits pitcher, which does bode well for the first four batters in the Astros’ lineup.

• Astros Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (15 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (16 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 24.2% (28 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (15 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.43 (18 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.10 (15 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

The Orioles have the ninth highest run projection on the board tonight, but I see this as more of a boom or bust type of matchup. Joe Musgrove has been great in his first three major league appearances and he has done it against some talented offenses. He is still a wildcard at this point though, so I could potentially see the Orioles getting to him. Basically, I’m avoiding the situation altogether in cash games, but will have shares of both Musgrove and the Orioles’ offense in separate GPP lineups.

• Orioles Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (3 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (2 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.0% (22 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (19 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.65 (10 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.40 (9 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers					Philadelphia
			Ross Stripling					Jerad Eickhoff
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -150					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.240	0	30.2%	20.0%	SP vs. Left	0.347	16	31.8%	16.6%
SP vs. Right	0.328	5	37.5%	15.4%	SP vs. Right	0.265	8	33.6%	25.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Stripling
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$5,200
					FPPG:		20.6	FPPG:		10.6
					Pitcher Rating:		60.8	Pitcher Rank:		8
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	2	83.5	3.39	3.05	17.7%	3.8%	7.2%	61.3%	25.8%	33.9%
2016	10	85.6	4.29	4.07	17.4%	7.6%	7.3%	52.7%	27.6%	34.5%

Stripling will be making his 11th start of the season. He has mediocre numbers at best, posting a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.4%. The biggest concern is his inability to pitch deep into games. He hasn’t thrown more than 92 pitches in any outing since April, which limits his upside a bit. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies on paper, but they have spoiled the fantasy outings of some talented pitchers recently. If you are looking for a mid-range pitching option, I’d rather target either side the HOU/BAL game.

Jerad Eickhoff
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		29.3	FPPG:		15.1
					Pitcher Rating:		54.7	Pitcher Rank:		13
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	84.6	3.94	4.08	19.3%	2.5%	8.5%	41.1%	41.1%	35.9%
2016	24	94.2	4.11	3.82	19.9%	5.5%	9.5%	42.6%	36.6%	31.5%
2015	8	92.4	3.56	2.65	24.1%	6.4%	10.4%	37.9%	40.0%	36.2%

Eickhoff is having a decent season overall, posting a 4.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate just under 20%. He has pitched better at home than he has on the road, but I want no part of any pitcher facing this Dodgers’ offense right now. Over the last month of play, they have the fourth highest team wOBA at .344. Eickhoff is a sizable underdog at home in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. He can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have the fourth highest implied team total on the board. I already mentioned how hot their bats have been over the last month of play and they have already scored 22 runs in the first two games of this series. Citizens Bank Park is a sneaky hitter’s park and Jerad Eickhoff splits line up perfectly for this lineup. In the last two seasons, Eickhoff has allowed a .347 wOBA and 16 home runs to left-handed hitters.

• Dodgers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (10 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (8 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (16 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.52 (15 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.79 (4 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Chase Utley (FD), Corey Seager, Josh Reddick, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley (DK), Justin Turner, Joc Pederson

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies have been one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but they are slowly trending upward. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Ross Stripling, who has allowed a 34.5% hard hit contact rate this season. Stripling has also given up a .328 wOBA to right-handed hitters. You may not need to take a chance on the Phillies, but their offense isn’t in the worst spot tonight.

• Phillies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.299 (28 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (18 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (19 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.76 (28 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.81 (28 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.21 (14 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox					Cleveland
			Carlos Rodon					Danny Salazar
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -200					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.241	1	21.6%	27.1%	SP vs. Left	0.296	21	32.7%	27.4%
SP vs. Right	0.357	27	30.4%	21.3%	SP vs. Right	0.288	15	30.3%	25.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Rodon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		28.2	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		50.4	Pitcher Rank:		15
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	3	109.0	4.20	3.44	23.4%	9.1%	11.3%	40.4%	46.2%	36.5%
2016	19	99.8	4.10	4.32	22.4%	8.0%	9.6%	44.1%	36.6%	28.6%
2015	23	106.1	4.20	3.75	22.9%	11.7%	10.1%	46.8%	29.8%	28.3%

Rodon never seems to be in good or bad form. Every time he takes the mound, his numbers over the previous month look nearly identical to his season averages. In 19 starts, he has a 4.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.4%. He comes into tonight’s game as a massive underdog against the Indians, who lead the majors in team wOBA in the last month of play. There is more risk than potential reward for Rodon tonight. He can be avoided in all league formats.

Danny Salazar
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$9,000
					FPPG:		37.6	FPPG:		19.9
					Pitcher Rating:		85.0	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	3	81.3	3.86	8.53	24.6%	8.2%	9.4%	46.3%	36.6%	41.5%
2016	20	100.7	3.84	3.38	27.3%	10.5%	11.0%	48.2%	35.5%	35.6%
2015	30	101.6	3.39	3.45	25.8%	7.0%	11.8%	43.9%	37.4%	28.9%

Salazar is looking to bounce back after three rough starts in a row (8.53 ERA) and a stint on the DL (elbow injury). On the season, he has a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.3%. It’s only a matter of time until he gets back to being his dominant self, but the question to ask is whether that will be tonight or sometime in the near future? He draws a favorable matchup against the White Sox, he is pitching at home, and his price has come down across the industry. I want to play him tonight, but am hesitant since this is his first game back from injury.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox had a crazy comeback in the ninth inning last night to beat the Indians. They come into this game with the fifth lowest implied team total on the board. Even though Danny Salazar has been struggling in his last few starts, he has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA in the last two seasons combined. There are better matchups to exploit tonight.

• White Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (24 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (15 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (18 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.03 (25 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.67 (18 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians’ offense has been on fire over the last month of play, ranking first in both team wOBA and team ISO. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Carlos Rodon and they come into the game with the third highest run projection. Over the last two seasons, Rodon has allowed a .357 wOBA and 27 home runs to right-handed hitters.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (11 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.156 (19 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 21.0% (15 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.92 (6 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.08 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.83 (3 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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