MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 14th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-14 17:42:12

LA Dodgers at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Dodgers					Arizona
			Kenta Maeda					Archie Bradley
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -145					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.265	3	20.3%	10.9%	SP vs. Left	0.317	3	19.9%	16.6%
SP vs. Right	0.248	2	26.2%	3.6%	SP vs. Right	0.357	4	16.7%	8.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kenta Maeda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		33.5	FPPG:		18.3
					Pitcher Rating:		76.6	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	87.2	3.52	3.33	25.0%	7.4%	11.0%	49.3%	29.6%	30.6%
2016	12	92.0	3.81	2.70	23.3%	7.2%	11.7%	44.4%	37.4%	27.2%

Maeda is off to a nice start in his major league career, posting a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.3% in his first 12 starts. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Diamondbacks in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. The one plus in this matchup is the fact that the Diamondbacks have the sixth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Unfortunately, that’s not enough of a reason to target Maeda tonight in what could be a high scoring game.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Archie Bradley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		30.2	FPPG:		15.0
					Pitcher Rating:		43.3	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	3	98.7	3.42	3.79	31.2%	10.4%	11.8%	33.3%	44.4%	31.1%
2016	5	101.4	4.34	5.22	23.4%	11.7%	8.5%	45.8%	33.7%	31.3%
2015	8	80.5	5.28	5.80	14.3%	13.7%	5.9%	58.0%	27.7%	38.6%

Bradley has looked good in his last three starts, but the larger sample tells another story. In his first 13 major league starts, he has a SIERA just under 5.00 with a strikeout rate under 20%. I like that his strikeout rate is up this season, but I don’t love the fact that he has to face the Dodgers at home in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. He is an easy fade in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are an offense that should fly under the radar tonight, despite the fact that they have the sixth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Archie Bradley, who has allowed a .317 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .357 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.11 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.51 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.312	0.147	0.213	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,800
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.381	0.227	0.496	SS	$3,600	SS	$5,200
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.353	0.179	0.257	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.355	0.205	0.253	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700
5	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.380	0.233	0.390	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
6	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.342	0.215	0.245	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
7	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.308	0.109	0.218	2B	$2,700	2B/OF	$3,300
8	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.321	0.178	0.340	C	$2,800	C	$3,400
9	Kenta Maeda	RIGHT	0.172	0.176	0.000	P	$8,500	P	$9,900
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.185	0.268	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Corey Seager

Secondary Plays – Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Trayce Thompson

Stackability – GPP

Arizona

The Diamondbacks may be playing at home, but their matchup against Kenta Maeda is less than ideal. He has an above-average strikeout rate, he induces a lot of ground balls, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 wOBA. You can use a hitter or two here in a GPP, but there are better matchups to exploit for cash games.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.158 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.3% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.99 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.285	0.096	0.285	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600
2	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.344	0.176	0.335	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.401	0.237	0.441	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,600
4	David Peralta	LEFT	0.386	0.222	0.298	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.299	0.172	0.335	C	$3,100	C	$3,100
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.290	0.109	0.282	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,000
7	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.245	0.113	0.257	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,200
8	Archie Bradley	RIGHT	0.063	0.000	0.220	P	$6,500	P	$7,300
9	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.272	0.055	0.237	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.287	0.131	0.299	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota at LA Angels – 10:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Minnesota					LA Angels
			Ervin Santana					Jhoulys Chacin
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA -130					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.331	9	13.8%	9.6%	SP vs. Left	0.334	8	13.0%	9.9%
SP vs. Right	0.319	11	22.3%	6.3%	SP vs. Right	0.293	3	24.5%	6.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ervin Santana
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		21.9	FPPG:		10.8
					Pitcher Rating:		49.4	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	6	98.8	4.42	5.35	17.0%	6.5%	10.1%	44.8%	33.6%	31.6%
2016	11	92.0	4.44	4.77	18.4%	8.1%	9.6%	44.4%	33.3%	28.7%
2015	17	98.7	4.43	4.00	17.9%	7.9%	9.5%	40.9%	37.6%	28.1%

Santana has been an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS. In 11 starts this season, he has a 4.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.4%. He has mixed in a few good outings here and there, but has otherwise been a pitcher to pick on. He can be avoided tonight against the Angels, who have the lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jhoulys Chacin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		24.1	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		71.8	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	6	91.5	4.47	4.42	15.4%	8.3%	7.1%	57.0%	26.3%	34.2%
2016	11	89.0	4.12	4.83	18.7%	7.7%	8.7%	53.4%	27.5%	34.9%
2015	4	106.5	4.28	3.38	18.9%	9.0%	8.9%	47.4%	33.3%	38.8%

Chacin got off to a hot start this season, but has quickly come back down to Earth. In 11 starts, he owns a 4.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.7%. He gives up a high hard hit contact rate and he doesn’t produce a high enough swinging strike rate. While the Twins’ offense doesn’t have great numbers against right-handed pitching overall, they have been much better over the last couple of weeks.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins don’t look like a great offense to target tonight, but their matchup is better than their low team total would suggest. Over the last two seasons, Jhoulys Chacin has allowed a .334 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.90 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.351	0.129	0.355	SS	$3,500	3B/SS	$4,900
2	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.367	0.231	0.477	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,100
3	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.324	0.118	0.313	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600
4	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.302	0.175	0.280	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,000
5	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.308	0.187	0.397	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000
6	Byung-Ho Park	RIGHT	0.319	0.231	0.298	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.313	0.107	0.250	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.265	0.077	0.356	C	$2,400	C	$2,400
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.298	0.144	0.297	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.155	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels

The Angels come into tonight’s game with the 11th highest team total on the board. Even though they haven’t been great against right-handed pitching as a team, there are a few batters that we can look to tonight. Over the last two seasons, Ervin Santana has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .319 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 16.2% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.23 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.341	0.094	0.307	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.334	0.167	0.372	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.412	0.285	0.389	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,000
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.329	0.209	0.286	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700
5	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.337	0.243	0.451	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$2,500
6	Todd Cunningham	SWITCH	0.230	0.038	0.161	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500
7	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.300	0.109	0.259	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,800
8	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.284	0.124	0.181	C	$2,100	C	$2,300
9	Gregorio Petit	RIGHT	0.321	0.138	0.401	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.156	0.312	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Jefry Marte

Stackability – GPP

Texas at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Oakland
			Martin Perez					Eric Surkamp
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK -114					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.236	1	24.1%	9.8%	SP vs. Left	0.473	4	4.8%	4.8%
SP vs. Right	0.330	8	11.0%	8.8%	SP vs. Right	0.391	2	14.4%	12.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Martin Perez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		26.2	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		47.3	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	6	99.0	4.86	2.89	11.3%	8.1%	7.4%	57.1%	25.4%	32.6%
2016	13	96.8	5.12	3.22	13.1%	10.9%	7.7%	55.8%	25.6%	31.5%
2015	14	86.8	4.06	4.46	14.2%	7.1%	7.5%	59.9%	22.1%	22.7%

Perez continues to defy the odds. Despite a strikeout rate of 13.1% and a hard hit contact rate of 31.5%, he has a 3.22 ERA on the season. Obviously, we can expect some regression moving forward, but as long as he has that elite ground ball rate, he is going to be a tough pitcher to target hitters against. As far as his fantasy appeal, let’s just say that it is severely lacking.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Eric Surkamp
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$4,100
					FPPG:		10.8	FPPG:		2.6
					Pitcher Rating:		48.6	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	1	71.0	5.28	5.79	8.3%	4.2%	4.2%	42.1%	31.6%	26.3%
2016	6	83.7	6.11	6.41	10.2%	11.0%	6.0%	31.1%	39.8%	30.1%
2015	0	0.0	3.00	10.80	25.0%	6.3%	15.7%	37.5%	25.0%	55.6%

I was a bit surprised to see Surkamp as a favorite tonight. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 6.11 SIERA with a walk rate that is higher than his strikeout rate. He is an easy avoid tonight against the Rangers, who are ranked seventh in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers hit left-handed pitching well as a team and even though they have a low run projection, I love their matchup tonight against Erik Surkamp. In his career, Surkamp has allowed a .401 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .385 wOBA to right-handed hitters. We usually like to avoid the lefty/lefty matchup in DFS, but we don’t have to do that tonight with the Rangers.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.329 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.144 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.4% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.313	0.133	0.545	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.363	0.203	0.365	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,400
3	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.259	0.000	0.394	2B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,700
4	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.341	0.183	0.331	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,400
5	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.353	0.198	0.427	OF	$3,400	1B/OF	$3,500
6	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.296	0.061	0.360	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
7	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.303	0.145	0.294	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,400
8	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.330	0.143	0.317	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,800
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.272	0.070	0.202	C	$2,100	C	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.126	0.359	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Secondary Plays – Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – GPP

Oakland

The A’s looked like they were taking batting practice last night against Cesar Ramos and the Rangers’ bullpen. They put up 14 runs in a game that got quickly out of hand. They draw another favorable matchup tonight, although as I mentioned above, it’s hard to love any batters against an elite ground ball pitcher. On the plus side, Martin Perez has allowed a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.4% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.02 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.258	0.095	0.155	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,700
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.340	0.167	0.337	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600
3	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.400	0.229	0.496	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,000
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.322	0.253	0.325	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500
5	Billy Butler	RIGHT	0.316	0.158	0.502	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,200
6	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.377	0.201	0.364	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,900
7	Josh Phegley	RIGHT	0.329	0.170	0.335	C	$2,800	C	$3,000
8	Jake Smolinski	RIGHT	0.371	0.242	0.488	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900
9	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.320	0.096	0.226	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.337	0.179	0.359	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Marcus Semien

Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Josh Phegley

Stackability – GPP

Miami at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					San Diego
			Tom Koehler					Drew Pomeranz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SD -130					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.337	18	18.3%	10.9%	SP vs. Left	0.224	3	26.4%	10.0%
SP vs. Right	0.307	8	16.0%	9.9%	SP vs. Right	0.287	9	25.3%	9.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tom Koehler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		25.3	FPPG:		11.7
					Pitcher Rating:		56.4	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	6	103.3	5.17	3.19	17.7%	13.9%	8.4%	52.4%	27.6%	22.4%
2016	12	95.3	5.17	4.36	17.5%	12.7%	8.0%	46.2%	33.3%	24.5%
2015	31	96.0	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Koehler is not having his best season. Through 12 starts, he owns a 5.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.5%. He is walking way too many batters this season, which has driven up his pitch count and made him work out of the stretch more often than he’d like. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the strikeout happy Padres, but given his form, he is a deep GPP target at best.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Pomeranz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		38.5	FPPG:		21.6
					Pitcher Rating:		90.3	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	103.2	3.93	3.30	25.2%	10.2%	9.9%	48.0%	33.3%	19.5%
2016	12	100.7	3.69	2.44	28.9%	11.2%	11.5%	46.7%	37.0%	26.2%
2015	9	92.2	3.73	3.66	23.0%	8.7%	11.0%	42.2%	36.3%	24.9%

Pomeranz may have a high walk rate, but when it is accompanied by a 3.69 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 28.9%, we are more than willing to overlook it. He is generating a high swinging strike rate and he has been able to pitch much deeper into games this season. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Marlins, who are ranked 24th in team K% against left-handed pitching this season. Pomeranz grades out as the third best pitching option available tonight and he is worth a look in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. They draw an awful matchup against Drew Pomeranz in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Pomeranz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.319 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.139 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.7% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.09 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.57 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.345	0.143	0.249	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.366	0.124	0.429	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.333	0.083	0.391	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.435	0.242	0.283	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.423	0.423	0.164	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900
6	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.320	0.097	0.320	1B	$2,300	1B/3B	$2,400
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.299	0.169	0.372	C	$2,900	C	$3,300
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.283	0.073	0.267	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,200
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.080	0.000	0.000	P	$6,800	P	$7,200
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.150	0.275	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

San Diego

The Padres draw a favorable matchup tonight against Tom Koehler, but we should keep in mind that they are still the Padres. They have the 14th lowest team total on the board, which does limit their fantasy appeal quite a bit. The lefties have an edge in the splits department, as Koehler has allowed a .337 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.278 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.0% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.00 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.93 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.277	0.086	0.291	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.339	0.208	0.522	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,100
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.301	0.172	0.380	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.334	0.165	0.296	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,300
5	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.306	0.153	0.212	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
6	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.271	0.104	0.366	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,900
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.286	0.148	0.381	C	$2,700	C	$3,300
8	Alexi Amarista	LEFT	0.243	0.078	0.289	SS	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,400
9	Drew Pomeranz	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$9,700	P	$10,400
	Team Averages	—	0.262	0.124	0.304	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Wil Myers

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee at San Francisco – 10:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					San Francisco
			Matt Garza					Madison Bumgarner
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -250					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.373	11	14.1%	9.1%	SP vs. Left	0.225	3	33.2%	4.6%
SP vs. Right	0.346	12	17.1%	8.1%	SP vs. Right	0.274	25	25.9%	5.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Garza
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,800
					FPPG:		21.2	FPPG:		0.0
					Pitcher Rating:		40.0	Pitcher Rank:		25
2015	25	95.7	4.68	5.63	15.6%	8.6%	7.8%	45.0%	32.9%	33.0%

Garza is making his first start of the season, after being on the shelf with a shoulder injury. He didn’t pitch all that well in 2015, posting a 4.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.6%. He comes into tonight’s game as one of the largest underdogs on the board. He is an easy fade in both cash games and GPPs, as run support should be limited with Madison Bumgarner pitching opposite him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Madison Bumgarner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,900	Salary:		$13,800
					FPPG:		45.0	FPPG:		25.3
					Pitcher Rating:		99.0	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	108.0	3.09	0.74	27.9%	5.0%	13.2%	42.2%	36.7%	26.9%
2016	13	106.2	3.33	1.88	28.0%	7.1%	11.4%	39.4%	39.4%	30.8%
2015	32	103.5	3.00	2.93	26.9%	4.5%	12.5%	41.7%	35.6%	27.8%

There are a few aces on the mound tonight, but Bumgarner is the clear option at the top. He has been tremendous this season, posting a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He draws an excellent matchup tonight at home against the Brewers, who are ranked below the major league average in both team ISO and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. The only reason to fade Bumgarner tonight is if you want to take a cheaper pitcher in order to get more Coors Field hitters into your lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have the lowest run projection on the board and they have the toughest pitching matchup of any team in action. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Madison Bumgarner has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.150 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.2% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.13 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.64 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.370	0.172	0.303	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100
2	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.281	0.166	0.240	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,000
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.427	0.253	0.248	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.272	0.099	0.411	C	$2,500	C	$2,800
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.329	0.237	0.351	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000
6	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.273	0.096	0.269	3B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,000
7	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.235	0.161	0.415	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,000
8	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.212	0.053	0.335	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,400
9	Matt Garza	RIGHT	0.000	0.000		P	$6,000	P	$5,800
	Team Averages	—	0.267	0.137	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

San Francisco

The Giants draw a favorable matchup tonight against Matt Garza, but we don’t love loading up on hitters in AT&T Park. With a game in Coors Field, the Giants will likely get overlooked by the masses. You can look to a few of these hitters for value if their prices are right, but none of them stand out as elite plays at their respective positions.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 16.2% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.38 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.36 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.356	0.121	0.298	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.353	0.165	0.317	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800
3	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.370	0.198	0.420	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.345	0.153	0.243	C	$3,500	C	$4,200
5	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.324	0.135	0.298	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.342	0.217	0.355	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,700
7	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.377	0.306	0.287	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
8	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.319	0.113	0.183	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
9	Madison Bumgarner	LEFT	0.280	0.190	0.339	P	$11,900	P	$13,800
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.178	0.304	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 14th - Page Three

LA Dodgers at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Corey Seager

Secondary Plays – Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Trayce Thompson

Stackability – GPP

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota at LA Angels – 10:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Jefry Marte

Stackability – GPP

Texas at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Secondary Plays – Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – GPP

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Marcus Semien

Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Josh Phegley

Stackability – GPP

Miami at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Wil Myers

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee at San Francisco – 10:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – NONE

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