MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-28 01:18:25

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Philadelphia at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Miami
			Zach Eflin					Adam Conley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -180					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.304	4	7.0%	5.8%	SP vs. Left	0.327	1	17.5%	9.1%
SP vs. Right	0.328	2	15.9%	3.4%	SP vs. Right	0.303	16	23.4%	8.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zach Eflin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		26.0	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		33.0	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	5	93.6	4.97	2.45	11.5%	3.1%	6.4%	39.1%	37.3%	27.0%
2016	7	90.4	5.17	4.14	11.5%	4.6%	6.3%	37.9%	39.3%	30.1%

We have a nice split-slate on tap today. There are six early games and nine late games, so if you feel like getting nothing done at work today, join both the early and the main slates. Eflin will take the mound for the Phillies in what will be his eighth career major league start. The first seven haven’t exactly gone as planned, as he owns a 5.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.5%. Until he can show more upside, he can be avoided in DFS.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Conley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,000
					FPPG:		29.5	FPPG:		15.3
					Pitcher Rating:		73.4	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	5	95.2	3.80	2.76	26.1%	7.6%	10.9%	33.8%	50.0%	35.5%
2016	19	93.0	4.30	3.61	22.9%	9.6%	9.9%	38.2%	41.7%	29.7%
2015	11	100.2	3.98	3.76	21.0%	7.5%	10.1%	40.6%	40.6%	21.7%

Conley is an interesting GPP play in the early slate of games. Madison Bumgarner figures to be the chalk and Brandon McCarthy looks like the go-to SP2. Conley should fly under the radar despite a 22.9% strikeout rate and arguably the best matchup on the board. The Phillies are currently ranked 26th or worse in team wOBA (.278), team ISO, (.114), and team strikeout rate (23.5%) against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

As mentioned above, the Phillies have not fared well against left-handed pitching this season. They are ranked 26th or worse in all six of the offensive statistics listed below. They come into this game with the third lowest run projection of the 30 teams in action today. Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph aren’t the worst plays on the board, but there are better options at their respective positions.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.278 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.114 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.5% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.71 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.57 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.321	0.065	0.286	2B	$3,200	2B	$2,900
2	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.295	0.069	0.284	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,600
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.341	0.224	0.209	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,100
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.427	0.313	0.430	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.408	0.283	0.285	C	$3,100	C	$3,200
6	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.210	0.095	0.362	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,500
7	Taylor Featherston	RIGHT	0.266	0.065		SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,300
8	Jimmy Paredes	SWITCH	0.254	0.067	0.000	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,400
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.176	P	$6,300	P	$7,200
	Team Averages	—	0.280	0.131	0.254	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins draw a favorable matchup against the rookie Zach Eflin, who hasn’t shown a lot of strikeout upside in the majors. Miami should be able to make contact today, the question is whether or not it will be hard contact. The sample size is small, but Eflin has allowed a .304 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .328 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.1% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.315	0.122	0.241	C	$2,900	C	$3,700
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.303	0.089	0.316	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,200
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.376	0.165	0.426	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,200
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.352	0.255	0.350	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.306	0.140	0.227	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.363	0.178	0.147	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,800
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.294	0.075	0.340	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,600
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.274	0.086	0.312	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,700
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.100	0.000	0.000	P	$8,600	P	$9,000
	Team Averages	—	0.298	0.123	0.262	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Washington					Cleveland
			Stephen Strasburg					Carlos Carrasco
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -110					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.251	12	31.4%	7.5%	SP vs. Left	0.278	15	27.5%	7.3%
SP vs. Right	0.291	15	29.4%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.281	15	28.1%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Stephen Strasburg
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$10,600
					FPPG:		47.1	FPPG:		24.7
					Pitcher Rating:		84.7	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	4	106.3	3.64	2.60	28.9%	9.6%	9.7%	37.5%	42.2%	25.0%
2016	18	104.0	3.08	2.83	31.2%	7.2%	11.1%	42.5%	37.2%	25.5%
2015	23	88.8	2.76	3.46	29.6%	5.0%	11.2%	42.2%	34.3%	28.9%

Strasburg was rocked by the Dodgers in his last start (mainly by Justin Turner), but he still managed to strikeout ten batters. He has an incredibly high floor thanks to his ability to rack up k’s against his opponents. While Strasburg can dominate any lineup in any ballpark, I’m not a huge fan of paying up for him today. He draws a difficult matchup against the Indians and he has to face them on the road in an American League ballpark. I’ll gladly take extra shares of Mad-Bum and fade Strasburg today.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Carlos Carrasco
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$9,200
					FPPG:		37.0	FPPG:		20.7
					Pitcher Rating:		85.2	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	6	96.3	3.56	1.16	26.5%	7.5%	11.8%	50.0%	39.6%	28.1%
2016	14	90.9	3.66	2.31	24.0%	6.8%	11.7%	50.7%	32.8%	34.2%
2015	30	92.6	2.74	3.63	29.6%	5.9%	14.0%	51.2%	29.8%	27.5%

Carrasco has been dominant this season, posting a 3.66 SIERA (2.31 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 6.8%. He induces a lot of ground balls and he gets a lot of strikeouts – two things that I love seeing from a pitcher in DFS. He draws a mediocre matchup today against the Nationals, who are ranked right around the major league average in team wOBA (.314) and team ISO (.168) against right-handed pitching. The main concern here is run support.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

This should be a fun game to watch, but not one that I will be heavily targeting in DFS. If it plays out as expected, we could end up seeing a low-scoring pitcher’s duel. The Nationals have the eighth lowest implied team total on the board. They draw a tough matchup against Carlos Carrasco, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.66 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.44 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.264	0.157	0.298	SS	$2,900	2B	$3,200
2	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.437	0.306	0.219	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.377	0.222	0.550	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,100
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.316	0.149	0.416	C	$3,200	C	$3,900
5	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.289	0.131	0.287	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,300
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.313	0.136	0.326	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,200
7	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.288	0.165		1B	$3,000	1B	$3,300
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.305	0.173	0.177	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000
9	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.299	0.080	0.230	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.169	0.313	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians have been a top five offense against right-handed pitching this season, but targeting batters against Stephen Strasburg isn’t a profitable strategy over the long run. In the last two seasons, Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA. There are enough games in the early slate that we don’t have to look to either of these teams for hitters.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.193 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.93 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.56 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.352	0.232	0.335	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.384	0.195	0.424	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.349	0.159	0.329	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,100
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.307	0.189	0.400	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,900
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.306	0.127	0.239	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$3,200
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.319	0.150	0.359	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
7	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.321	0.160	0.221	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.429	0.311	0.507	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700
9	Chris Gimenez	RIGHT	0.268	0.116	0.319	C	$2,000	C	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.337	0.182	0.348	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis

Stackability – RED

San Diego at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Diego					Toronto
			Luis Perdomo					R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -220					10.5
SP vs. Left	0.396	8	14.0%	6.1%	SP vs. Left	0.312	22	13.7%	8.8%
SP vs. Right	0.399	3	19.3%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.322	26	16.5%	6.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Luis Perdomo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,400
					FPPG:		11.4	FPPG:		4.2
					Pitcher Rating:		42.0	Pitcher Rank:		25
L30 Days	4	86.5	3.74	3.97	14.3%	3.8%	8.1%	59.5%	19.0%	34.9%
2016	8	154.4	4.01	7.36	16.8%	7.8%	9.9%	57.3%	20.6%	33.6%

Perdomo has looked better in his last four starts, posting a 3.74 SIERA and a 3.97 ERA. The issue that I have with him is the strikeout upside. In eight starts this season, he has struck out less than 17% of the batters that he has faced. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but his fly balls do get hit hard. He currently has a 33.6% hard hit contact rate on the season. As a heavy underdog on the road, he can be avoided today against the Blue Jays.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
R.A. Dickey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,200
					FPPG:		24.8	FPPG:		12.0
					Pitcher Rating:		51.8	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	5	93.2	4.30	4.18	21.2%	7.6%	11.8%	35.1%	42.6%	35.1%
2016	20	97.1	4.78	4.11	17.0%	8.4%	9.7%	43.9%	35.3%	31.2%
2015	33	98.9	4.76	3.91	14.3%	6.9%	9.1%	41.9%	37.2%	23.9%

Dickey has a great chance to pick up a cheap win in the early slate. Even though he doesn’t have the highest strikeout rate, he draws one of the top matchups on the board. The Padres are ranked 29th in both team wBOA (.288) and team strikeout rate (24.8%) against right-handed pitching this season. I would never call Dickey an elite or a must play, but he is certainly worth a look in tournaments and as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres may have one of the lowest team totals in the early slate, but they are facing a hittable pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. There are certainly worse matchups on the board, especially when you consider how many home runs the Padres have hit since the start of July. There are a few batters that you can look at here, but all of them are best suited as GPP plays.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.288 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.8% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.41 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.11 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.312	0.113	0.276	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.331	0.203	0.242	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.308	0.178	0.477	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.341	0.178	0.337	3B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,300
5	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.371	0.239	0.341	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900
6	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.406	0.390	0.538	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,400
7	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.262	0.101	0.306	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,400
8	Brett Wallace	LEFT	0.335	0.196	0.251	3B	$2,000	1B/3B	$2,700
9	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.281	0.160	0.134	C	$2,400	C	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.195	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – ORANGE / ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the highest run projection of all 30 teams in action today. Their matchup against Luis Perdomo appears favorable on paper, but I will warn you that he does induce a ground ball rate close to 60%. That’s not enough of a reason to fade the Jays or anything like that, but it’s worth noting. The sample size is small, but Perdomo has allowed a .395+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.05 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.91 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.89 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.383	0.278	0.392	OF	$4,900	OF	$4,500
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.398	0.268	0.353	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,400
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.282	0.364	1B	$4,700	1B	$4,600
4	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.301	0.155	0.176	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.304	0.130	0.241	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
6	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.373	0.190	0.418	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,300
7	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.292	0.099	0.119	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
8	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.323	0.131	0.225	SS	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,200
9	Josh Thole	LEFT	0.200	0.021	0.312	C	$2,400	C	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.329	0.173	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Melvin Upton

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Boston
			Michael Fulmer					Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -110					10.5
SP vs. Left	0.257	0	16.9%	10.2%	SP vs. Left	0.363	8	18.2%	5.0%
SP vs. Right	0.266	6	27.8%	6.3%	SP vs. Right	0.315	15	17.3%	8.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		36.5	FPPG:		19.3
					Pitcher Rating:		56.2	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	4	89.0	3.72	1.42	20.4%	5.1%	12.1%	50.7%	24.6%	31.0%
2016	14	94.6	3.99	2.13	22.5%	8.2%	11.4%	49.3%	31.0%	31.3%

Fulmer is having an incredible rookie season so far, posting a 2.13 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.5%. His peripheral stats suggest some regression moving forward, but his SIERA is still under 4.00 on the year. He draws a tough matchup today against the Red Sox, who are ranked first in team wOBA (.358) against right-handed pitching and first in runs scored per game this season. Targeting pitchers against the Sox in Fenway isn’t a great strategy.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Eduardo Rodriguez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,200
					FPPG:		18.3	FPPG:		7.7
					Pitcher Rating:		38.8	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	3	91.3	5.24	7.47	14.3%	7.1%	8.0%	32.7%	45.5%	32.7%
2016	7	91.1	5.58	7.18	13.5%	8.6%	7.4%	31.5%	48.0%	32.3%
2015	21	95.7	4.16	3.85	18.8%	7.1%	7.8%	43.0%	33.4%	31.4%

Rodriguez has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In seven starts, he has a 5.58 SIERA (7.18 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 13.5% and a walk rate of 8.6%. He has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a hard hit contact rate of 32.3%. When you aren’t striking hitters out, giving up a lot of hard hit fly balls is eventually going to turn into runs. He grades out as one of the worst pitching options on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers put up nine runs in Fenway last night and will look for another big outing today against Eduardo Rodriguez. Over the last two seasons, Rodriguez has allowed a .363 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .315 wOBA to right-handed hitters. I still prefer the right-handed batters in the Tigers’ lineup though, as Rodriguez has struggled with all types of batters this season.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.159 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.6% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.87 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.19 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.358	0.180	0.396	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,000
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.357	0.142	0.359	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,700
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.353	0.158	0.409	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,300
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.360	0.152	0.153	C	$3,700	1B	$3,500
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.360	0.222	0.304	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,200
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.270	0.132	0.325	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200
7	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.264	0.079	0.164	2B	$2,400	3B/OF	$2,800
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.359	0.228	0.080	C	$2,100	C	$2,900
9	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.208	0.043	0.371	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.148	0.285	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Jose Iglesias, Justin Upton, James McCann

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox draw the tougher matchup in this game, but they are actually the favorites here. They have the second highest implied team total on the board, as they square off against Michael Fulmer. He has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season, but facing the Red Sox in Fenway is a different animal altogether. Loading up on Red Sox at home never seems to be a bad idea.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.358 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.70 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.31 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.362	0.207	0.367	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,300
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.352	0.143	0.403	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,200
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.337	0.116	0.361	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,400
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.434	0.345	0.377	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,500
5	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.381	0.278	0.404	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,900
6	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.310	0.137	0.112	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,300
7	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.340	0.195	0.329	3B	$3,500	1B/3B	$4,100
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.304	0.093	0.377	C	$2,900	C	$2,900
9	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.320	0.120	0.363	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.349	0.182	0.344	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at LA Dodgers – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					LA Dodgers
			Matt Moore					Brandon McCarthy
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -180					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.309	7	17.5%	6.6%	SP vs. Left	0.308	3	33.8%	5.9%
SP vs. Right	0.339	22	19.2%	7.6%	SP vs. Right	0.314	7	33.3%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Moore
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		28.9	FPPG:		14.7
					Pitcher Rating:		44.7	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	6	105.8	5.15	3.10	15.7%	6.6%	9.0%	31.2%	52.8%	27.3%
2016	20	101.4	4.38	4.31	19.9%	6.9%	10.1%	37.1%	43.9%	32.1%
2015	12	88.0	4.67	5.43	16.6%	8.3%	9.9%	39.2%	38.7%	31.7%

Moore’s numbers continue to trend in the wrong direction. In his last six starts, he has a 5.15 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate of 15.7%. He was once considered an elite strikeout pitcher. He draws a decent matchup today against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, but there are enough red flags to avoid him in all league formats. He comes into the game as a sizable underdog.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Brandon McCarthy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$10,800
					FPPG:		39.3	FPPG:		23.2
					Pitcher Rating:		80.2	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	4	77.8	3.16	1.61	32.1%	8.6%	9.0%	42.6%	42.6%	27.1%
2016	4	77.8	3.16	1.61	32.1%	8.6%	9.0%	42.6%	42.6%	27.1%
2015	4	91.8	2.61	5.87	30.9%	4.3%	11.7%	38.3%	40.0%	47.5%

McCarthy has been terrific in his first four starts of the season, posting a 3.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32.1%. The biggest concern has been his pitch count, averaging only 77.8 pitches per start. The good news is that he threw 85 pitches in his last outing and he only came out of the game because his calf cramped up. We could see him throw around 90 pitches tonight, which does give him a higher ceiling and floor compared to his first few starts. The Rays are a favorable matchup, as they are ranked 24th in team wOBA (.304) and 28th in team strikeout rate (24.2%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are typically an easy team to fade when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. They come into today’s game with the third lowest implied team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Brandon McCarthy and they have to face him in a pitcher-friendly National League ballpark.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.2% (28 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.98 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.325	0.121	0.283	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,400
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.335	0.201	0.343	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.327	0.190	0.392	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,900
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.315	0.181	0.266	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,100
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.334	0.201	0.286	OF	$3,200	1B/2B	$3,100
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.355	0.270	0.354	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
7	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.316	0.177	0.229	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900
8	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.289	0.222	0.246	C	$2,500	C	$2,100
9	Matt Moore	LEFT	0.000	0.000		P	$8,000	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.288	0.174	0.300	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have a mediocre run projection today, as they square off against Matt Moore. Even though Dodgers Stadium isn’t the best hitter’s park, Moore has shown that he can give up runs no matter where he is pitching. Over the last two seasons, Moore has allowed a .339 wOBA and 22 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.283 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.132 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.9% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.83 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.30 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.321	0.096	0.469	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,700
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.334	0.190	0.422	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.301	0.151	0.532	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,800
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.324	0.125	0.291	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700
5	Scott Van Slyke	RIGHT	0.355	0.160	0.362	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,200
6	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.337	0.189	0.261	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200
7	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.347	0.092	0.317	C	$3,000	C	$3,800
8	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.302	0.159	0.384	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,200
9	Brandon McCarthy	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$8,000	P	$10,800
	Team Averages	—	0.291	0.129	0.338	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 27th

Stackability Rating System:

Philadelphia at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis

Stackability – RED

San Diego at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – ORANGE / ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Melvin Upton

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Jose Iglesias, Justin Upton, James McCann

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at LA Dodgers – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Howie Kendrick

Secondary Plays – Justin Turner, Scott Van Slyke, Yasiel Puig

Stackability – YELLOW

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