NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 13
Our recent heater came to a crashing halt in Week 12. We were on some plays that smashed, but my biggest mistakes were the following: 1) Having 33 percent exposure to Kareem Hunt in what seemed like a dream matchup, but ignoring Kansas City’s recent poor play. 2) Having 25 percent exposure to Kenny Stills, given some inspiring splits with Matt Moore and the majority of his targets coming where New England was most vulnerable. 3) Shifting from 40 percent exposure to Julio Jones to only 15 percent.
After spending the week quietly sobbing myself to sleep every night, but also evaluating whether these were bad results or bad process, I’m really only upset with my decision to come down off of Jones. I literally wrote, “Jones will have a slate-busting game at some point this season, and I like the chances of it being this week…”. This is not the first time I’ve come off of a player I felt extremely confident about due to projected ownership, and each time I’ve regretted it.
As far as plays I wish I made, Joe Mixon was a screaming value on DraftKings, and I went back and forth on it, but regretfully, it felt too gross to write up at the time. I got on some Jared Goff double-stacks late, but not as much as I would have liked. I also wish I had more exposure to Ben Roethlisberger at home in a soft matchup, which was a no-brainer-play given hindsight. Oh well, lessons learned.
Due to time constraints this week, today’s article is a little barren, but I’ll update within 24 hours for some secondary plays and general thoughts on each position.
Here are some of my favorite tournament plays from the main slate this week:
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Note 3: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz [DK: QB2, FD: QB3] / Russell Wilson [DK: QB3, FD: QB6] – I have a feeling I’ll be going all-in on Wentz and Wilson on FanDuel. I’ve recently noticed depressed ownership on the Sunday night games for FanDuel, perhaps due to DraftKings dropping that game from their main slate, so less time is being spent there by fantasy “experts”. Ownership could also be lower than typical due to what’s perceived as two tough matchups, but should be a pass-heavy affair featuring two of the league’s best quarterbacks. Wentz and Wilson rank either first or second in fantasy points per game and fantasy points per dropback. Philadelphia and Seattle are the only teams allowing under 3.0 yards per carry since Week 4. Seattle ranks fourth in plays per game (129.9), while Philadelphia ranks 12th (127.3). Teams are passing on Philadelphia at the highest rate in the league (68.8 percent) and on Seattle at the sixth-highest rate (59.9 percent). Both quarterbacks rank top-five in rushing attempts per game, and both defenses rank bottom-10 in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson has a little more upside, as the only quarterback with at least five 25-plus fantasy point games this year, but also carries significantly more risk. Seattle’s offense ranks third-worst in pressures allowed per dropback (0.39), while Philadelphia’s defense leads the league in the same category (0.42). I’ll likely be splitting ownership to both quarterbacks on FanDuel, with little exposure elsewhere.
Stacking Options – Zach Ertz is better viewed as a WR1 than a high-end TE1, averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game over his last 16 games. He gets a significant boost with Kam Chancellor, who primarily covered tight ends for Seattle, out of the lineup… Alshon Jeffery ranks 15th among wide receivers (and ahead of Ertz) in expected fantasy points per game (13.3), and gets a similar boost with Richard Sherman out… Philadelphia is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers (7.7), and as such, I’ll try to avoid Doug Baldwin as I have any wide receiver facing off against Patrick Robinson (our No. 2-graded cornerback this year)… The Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers (15.3), which is where Paul Richardson runs 53 percent of his routes. He has led Seattle’s wide receivers in targets in each of the past two weeks (15 targets over this span), and will face off against the league’s most-targeted cornerback (Jalen Mills) on the majority of his routes. He also has a sizable speed advantage over Mills (4.40 forty-yard-dash to Mill’s 4.61)… Theoretically, this would be a good week to go back to the well on J.D. McKissic at a near-minimum price tag, as Philadelphia is allowing the seventh-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, but I don’t think I’ve ever stacked a quarterback and running back together on FanDuel… Jimmy Graham ranks 16th among all receivers in expected fantasy points per game (13.5), has seen 47 percent of the team’s targets inside the 10-yard-line, leads all players in targets inside-the-five-yard-line (12, seven more than next-closest), and seems like the best bet for a touchdown in this game.
Case Keenum [DK: QB13, FD: QB12] – Post-hindsight the obvious play of Week 12 was Jared Goff double-stacks with New Orleans missing their two top cornerbacks. I’m imagining a similar outcome for Keenum this week if perimeter cornerback Desmond Trufant (our No. 10-graded cornerback) and slot cornerback Brian Poole (our #13 cornerback last year) are out. If Trufant plays I’ll move down off of Keenum some, but if only Poole is out I’ll remain heavily invested in Keenum on DraftKings. This is the third-highest over/under of the week, and should be a close-scoring shootout with the spread within +/- 3.0. Keenum has been a top-six quarterback in three of his last four games and a QB1 in every game over this stretch. While Mike Zimmer has remained non-committal on Keenum’s future as the starter, we feel he’s played exceptionally well, ranking as our 13th-highest-graded quarterback this year.
Stacking Options – Regardless of Poole’s status, Atlanta is still allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers, which is where Adam Thielen will run about 50 percent of his routes. He ranks seventh in expected fantasy points per game (16.4) and third in actual fantasy points per game (17.2), as well as ranking as our sixth-highest-graded wide receiver this year… Stefon Diggs has seen a diminished role in recent weeks, but still grades out 12th-best among wide receivers. He’s also quietly had a brutal cornerback schedule since returning from injury, while the reverse has been true for Thielen. In Diggs’ first game back, he faced a Cleveland defense that ranks second-worst in fantasy points per target (2.45) and second in percentage of wide receiver fantasy points allowed to slot wide receivers (44.9 percent). In his next game they faced Washington, who ranks third in percentage of wide receiver fantasy points funneled to the slot (44.4 percent). In Week 11 he primarily faced Trumaine Johnson (18th-best in opposing passer rating), while Thielen saw Rams’ slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman’s (our No. 35-graded-cornerback) on just nine snaps before Coleman left with an injury. In Week 12, he was shadowed by Darius Slay (our No. 8-graded cornerback). Basically this is just a long-winded way of saying, don’t sleep on Diggs if Trufant is out… Atlanta ranks 10th-best in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing tight ends, and that was with healthy cornerbacks, so I’ll likely be avoiding Kyle Rudolph, instead hoping for big games from the wide receivers.
Other – I’ve been money on running backs and wide receivers this season, but less so on quarterbacks with tight ends. My FantasyPros rankings backs this up. I say this solely for the purpose of full transparency – maybe you shouldn’t feel as confident about my write-ups in these sections… Philip Rivers is a strong play in a matchup we’ve attacked all season. Hunter Henry has the flowchart working in his favor, and though Keenan Allen is expensive, Cleveland ranks worst in fantasy points per target to slot wide receivers and ranks second in percentage of wide receiver production funneled to the slot… I like the idea of GB/TB stacks only slightly less than PHI/SEA. Clearly (if you’ll read further below) there are stacking options I like in this game. If I continued my theme of only paying lip service to Sunday Night, I probably would have written up Jameis Winston this week… Jimmy Garoppolo is a better tournament play than Geno Smith, and Trevor Siemian might be better than both, given how cheap his wide receivers are on DraftKings. The matchup is strong as well, with Miami ranking bottom-seven to quarterbacks against expectation both over the season and over the last five weeks…
Running Backs
Kenyan Drake [DK: RB25, FD: RB32] – This one is easy, but doesn’t require much “advanced analysis”. The running back position is one more heavily tethered to raw volume and snaps than any other position. Depleted backfields create unique opportunities with minimal competition for sometimes marginal athletes to far exceed their potential and reach elite fantasy heights. Drake currently qualifies, with both Damien Williams and Senorise Perry likely out for Week 13, leaving De’Veon Smith (undrafted rookie with zero career snaps) as the only other active running back on the roster. Drake has averaged 5.5 yards per carry and has caught 12 of 14 targets since the team traded Jay Ajayi. Over that stretch, Drake and Williams combined to average 16.5 carries and 7.3 targets per game, which is about what I’d envision for Drake. Opponent running backs combined to average just 15.4 fantasy points per game against Denver up until Week 8. Over the last four weeks, that number jumps to 33.5. Still, I see that as an exceedingly difficult matchup for Drake, but not one that supersedes the value of his role in contrast to price. (Update: Broncos NT Domata Peko (knee) and DE Derek Wolfe (neck) are out for Sunday.)
Jordan Howard [DK: RB12, FD: RB8] – Howard is only the eighth-most-expensive running back on FanDuel this week, at home (where he’s averaged +4.8 more fantasy points per game throughout his career) against the 49ers. Among all running backs available on this slate, he ranks second in carries per game (18.1) and second in percentage of opportunities inside the 10-yard-line (50 percent). While the spread is closer than I’d like (favored by only three), gamescript is still projected to be in Howard’s favor, and he averages 29.3 touches, 150.3 total yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game across the team’s only three victories. San Francisco has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs in each of the past three seasons, and just to a team’s highest-scoring running back, they’re “giving up more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the past two seasons than Ezekiel Elliott has averaged over this stretch”:https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/936359751662882817. It’s a risky play given the lack of a receiving workload, and a bet on Jimmy Garoppolo not setting the world on fire in his first start in San Francisco, but one I’ll still be heavily invested in.
Carlos Hyde [DK: RB16, FD: RB10] – Hyde has been grossly mispriced on DraftKings all season. He ranks first among all running backs available on this slate in expected fantasy points per game (18.1), and is due for some positive regression, totaling just 15.1 actual fantasy points per game. Hyde ranks third among running backs in targets per game (6.2), while also seeing 51.5 percent of his team’s opportunities inside the 10-yard line, which ranks behind only Le’Veon Bell. If Jimmy Garoppolo performs well, Hyde will benefit from some rare positive gamescript and an increase in scoring opportunities. If Garoppolo underperforms, Hyde should still be held afloat by a high receiving floor.
Other – Full-disclosure, I don’t feel as good about the running back position as I did last week, or as I do about wide receivers this week. Much hinges upon injuries we won’t have any certainty regarding until Sunday morning. If all are active, and not much value gets opened up, I could see myself having heavy exposure to Todd Gurley, as easily, the top running back of the slate with Le’Veon Bell playing on Monday Night. Though with him, I like him slightly less if Lance Dunbar and Malcolm Brown return. The team would be more likely to pull him if there’s a blowout, which also seems likely… If Aaron Jones is out, Jamaal Williams is easily the best running back play of the slate. His price has risen by just $400 combined on both major sites. Williams is averaging 18.1 expected fantasy points, 21.5 actual fantasy points, 19.5 carries, and 5.5 targets per game over the past two weeks, and now draws the softest matchup of this three-week stretch… If Ameer Abdullah is out, Theo Riddick becomes a borderline lock button guy on DraftKings. He’s still a great play on FanDuel, but likely will lean Drake there…. If Adrian Peterson is out, Kerwynn Williams becomes in play (despite his cracked ribs). I like him slightly less than Williams/Drake/Riddick if their counterparts are inactive, but he’d still be a strong play… Leonard Fournette practiced in full for the first time in three weeks, will have plenty of positive gamescript (9.5-point favorites), and has a strong matchup against an Indianapolis defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs… Alex Collins is a strong value play, seeing 36 carries and nine targets the past two weeks, even with Danny Woodhead back. Detroit is allowing the third-most rushing fantasy points per game and the fifth-most total fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Still, he’s seen just four of the team’s nine running back opportunities inside the 10-yard-line over their past four games, and the spread is too close for me to feel too confident regarding gamescript… Dion Lewis is balling out (our fourth-highest-graded running back, 5.3 yards per carry since Week 5) and has a dream matchup against the Bills. Volume will be capped (Bill Belichick) and Rex Burkhead will continue to vulture near end zone work, but he’s a fine play… Devonta Freeman has a brutal matchup, but is the cheapest he’ll be all year… After preferring Latavius Murray the past two weeks, I’m back on Jerick McKinnon. Usage has essentially been equal (in terms of expected fantasy points per game) since “(player-popup #dalvin-cook)Dalvin Cook”:/players/dalvin-cook-36885’s injury, and the matchup tilts in McKinnon’s favor. Over the past two seasons, Atlanta is allowing the most receiving but the 23rd most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs… Marshawn Lynch saw 26 carries and three targets last week against Denver, but now draws a much softer matchup against the Geno Smith-led Giants. He’s in play but not a priority play, given the much larger sample (Weeks 1-11) of him not seeing such a robust workload. Though, of course, perhaps that continues with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both still out, but you’re left guessing… LeSean McCoy averages 20.6 fantasy points per game against New England since joining Buffalo. In the one game he missed, his backups totaled over 100-yards and two touchdowns. New England ranks last in yards per carry allowed and third-worst in receiving fantasy points per game surrendered to opposing running backs. Given the “bend but don’t break” philosophy of New England’s defense, if the volume is there, so will the efficiency…
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans [DK: WR8, FD: WR10] – Evans is due for some positive regression, ranking third among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (17.3), but ranking only 14th in actual fantasy points per game (14.6). Efficiency should improve this week, with Jameis Winston back under center, and in a top-five matchup against the Packers. Green Bay is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing WR1s. They’re allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers (36.8), which is where Evans runs 80 percent of his routes. Evans ranks fifth in air yards, but just 14th in deep targets. I’ve heard this as an excuse to instead play DeSean Jackson (fourth in deep targets) due to a perceived greater upside, but that argument makes little sense this week. Winston should have less time to look deep after losing the team’s two highest-graded offensive linemen, Ali Marpet and Demar Dotson (both on I.R.), in Week 12. Green Bay has also surrendered only 12 plays of 30-or-more yards this season, which ranks tied for 13th-fewest. I’ve also heard arguments for Cameron Brate, and while he’s certainly a better play with Winston under center, the Packers rank second-best over expectation to opposing tight ends. Instead, I like Evans to soak up an even larger share of the team’s targets this week (he ranks sixth in targets per game) and continue to see the majority of the targets near the end zone (he is one of only three receivers to rank top-10 in end zone targets and targets inside the 10- and 20-yard-lines per game).
DeAndre Hopkins [DK: WR6, FD: WR4] – Hopkins is seeing a ridiculous workload this season, drawing a league-high 34.9 percent target market share and a league-leading 1.6 end zone targets per game. He’s essentially neck-and-neck with Antonio Brown for first among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game. Of course, Brown’s production has been better due to superior quarterback play, but efficiency shouldn’t be too much of a concern in this matchup. Tennessee is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing WR1s. They’re allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers (12.9), which is where Hopkins runs 54 percent of his routes (one of the highest rates in the league). Hopkins has played Tennessee nine times across his 75-game career, and we’ve seen six of his 20-highest-scoring games come against them. We’ve also seen Tennessee surrender monster games to Antonio Brown (42.4), Hopkins (26.7), Doug Baldwin (26.5), and A.J. Green (22.5) earlier this season.
Davante Adams [DK: WR15, FD: WR30] – Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing WR1s, and just gave up the biggest fantasy game of the year to Julio Jones last week. This bodes well for Adams, who has quickly cemented himself as the team’s WR1 under Brett Hundley. Since Aaron Rodgers’ Week 6 injury, Adams leads all Green Bay wide receivers in targets (47, 23 more than next-closest) and fantasy points (92, 42 more than next closest). Over the last five weeks of the season, he ranks 17th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (14.8) and 13th in actual fantasy points per game (18.0). Adams has eclipsed 80 yards in two straight games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh who both rank top-10 in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing outside wide receivers, while Tampa Bay ranks dead-last. Adams has also seen six of the team’s 10 deep passes over their past four games, while Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on deep passes (12.5).
Marqise Lee [DK: WR33, FD: WR40] – Heading into last week, Lee ranked ninth among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5) over the previous five weeks of the season. This is despite having the second-toughest cornerback schedule among all wide receivers over that stretch — 60.1 percent of his routes came lined up against top-30-graded cornerbacks. And yet, last week he faced his toughest matchup of the year, running 88.9 percent of his routes against Patrick Peterson, and gaining just 13 yards on two targets. Week 13 seems like the perfect spot to go back to him, as his cornerback schedule has not only let up, but has provided him with one of the softest matchups of the week. Indianapolis released starting cornerback Vontae Davis in Week 10 and now has lost perimeter cornerback Rashaan Melvin (our No. 14-graded cornerback) for the remainder of the season. Even with Melvin in the lineup, Indianapolis was allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers (23.4), which is where Lee runs 88 percent of his routes.
Other – Devin Funchess is anywhere from an okay to amazing play, depending on the status of Marshon Lattimore, Christian McCaffrey, and “(player-popup #greg-olsen)Greg Olsen”:/players/greg-olsen-11819… There are a lot of cheap options to like, and I’ll have some exposure to Seth Roberts, Josh Reynolds, Zay Jones, Dontrelle Inman, and “(player-popup #paul-richardson)Paul Richardson”:/players/paul-richardson-18401… Ted Ginn is fresh off of an 11-target game, facing a cornerback who runs a 4.64 forty (Daryl Worley). Ginn runs 44 percent of his routes from the left, while Carolina is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers… Sterling Shepard has seen immense volume in recent weeks, as well as quality targets (five deep targets in his last two games). He’ll draw T.J. Carrie (16th-worst in opposing passer rating, 16th-worst in fantasy points allowed per route) and a defense surrendering the third-most fantasy points per game on deep targets (and most on a per-target basis)… Rishard Matthews is intriguing if he makes his return. Houston is most susceptible deep and in the slot… Cooper Kupp is a great play, with Patrick Peterson on Sammy Watkins, and Arizona allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers… Brandin Cooks is no worse a play than he was last week… Davante Parker is a strong contrarian play, as I illustrated in the comments section. Shout out to Al Zeidenfield for putting me on that… Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are strong plays this week, though Thomas takes a hit with Siemian back under center. Sanders has the slightly better matchup against Cordrea Tankersley (bottom-20 in fantasy points per route run, fifth-worst in fantasy points per target, second-worst in opposing passer rating). Siemian also prefers Sanders as the team’s deep threat, and Miami is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game on deep passes, and ranks third-worst on a per-target basis…
Tight Ends
Jared Cook [DK: TE7, FD: TE15] – We wrote up Cook last week, and he disappointed, losing a touchdown called-back upon review. Still, he’s an excellent play again this week on FanDuel. The Raiders are likely to be without both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and the Giants are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (18.2). Crabtree’s absence, in particular, should help raise Cook’s touchdown upside, as Crabtree ranks fourth in the NFL in end-zone targets per game (1.3), while Cook ranks second on the team and ninth among tight ends (0.6).
Expensive Tight Ends – I’ll likely only roll with Ertz and Graham on FanDuel due to heavy exposure to their quarterbacks, despite also loving Cook. On DraftKings, I want to like Travis Kelce, who should draw low ownership despite ranking fifth among all receivers in expected fantasy points per game over the last five weeks of the season (17.3), up against a Jets defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (12.5), but I can’t justify it when Rob Gronkowski is only $300 more. Gronkowski has some mammoth splits when coming home to Buffalo and the team will be without Martellus Bennett (I.R.) and their No. 2 red zone threat in Chris Hogan (doubtful).
Other – Jack Doyle continues to be too damned cheap every week, despite firmly cementing himself as the team’s top receiver. Given how strong Jacksonville’s cornerbacks are, they’re also something of a “tight end funnel” defense like Denver has been in recent years… Delanie Walker too is Tennessee’s top receiver, at least in terms of expected fantasy point per game average, and gets a strong matchup against Houston (sixth-worst against expectation over the last five weeks)… Hunter Henry gets the “flowchart” this week, and is a strong play on DraftKings, but I prefer Cook on FanDuel… Ricky Seals-Jones has outscored all tight ends in fantasy points the past two weeks, has the “backup connection” working in his favor with Blaine Gabbert, but has only played on 19 percent of the snaps over this stretch. Still, with John Brown out, I think he’s a better play than most fantasy analysts have been alluding to…