NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Three

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-10-25 06:45:33

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins

Houston Texans						Miami Dolphins
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	44.5	20.25				-4	44.5	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.3	21	3	19		Offense	20.6	24	23	30
Opp. Defense	22.2	12	10	31		Opp. Defense	25.8	21	11	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	7	12	22	31		Houston Texans	26	20	17	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Hopkins	89	52	5	726		Landry	51	31	1	384
Washington	28	13	0	210		Matthews	32	23	3	363
Shorts	45	26	1	299		Stills	18	10	1	147
Fiedorowicz	8	7	1	74		Cameron	36	15	1	200

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Cecil Shorts (HOU, Out), Nate Washington, Arian Foster (HOU, Probable), Kenny Stills (MIA, Questionable)

HOU Matchup Rating: 5.0
MIA Matchup Rating: 6.0

Houston Texans

Quarterback: After being rightfully returned to the starting quarterback spot ahead of Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer (FD $6,900, DK $5,300) has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of his last three appearances, including a three-touchdown performance last weekend against the Jaguars. This week, the up-tempo Houston offense will take on the Dolphins, who will pose a bit more of a challenge than the Jaguars did, especially under new head coach Dan Campbell. Miami was a joke prior to their bye week, but came out on fire against Tennessee last week and knocked Marcus Mariota out of the game, and limited the overall production of the Titans passing game. I’m not ready to declare the Dolphins as a top pass defense (they are still ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass), but I don’t think they’re the easy matchup that allowed five total touchdowns to Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor in back-to-back weeks earlier this season. Hoyer is a better option than some of the other punt quarterbacks, but he’s certainly not the best one available this weekend.

Running Game: It is difficult to get a good read on the Miami run defense after a game against the Titans, who rotate in multiple subpar runners and failed to establish any ground game last week. Prior to their bye, Miami allowed 100 or more rushing yards to three backs in four games against non-elite competition, and rank 22nd in DVOA and 17th in numberFire’s rankings against the run. Arian Foster (FD $8,600, DK $7,500) is the most talented back the Dolphins have faced this season, and he’s getting it done as a receiver and as a runner. He will likely go over 100 total yards yet again, but that alone won’t get him to his value. He’ll need to score, and how strongly you feel about his chances to find the end zone should dictate how heavily you use him. I think he’s got good odds to find the end zone, and I’ll be using him on a few tournament teams this weekend.

Pass Catchers: You don’t need anyone to tell you that DeAndre Hopkins (FD $9,200, DK $8,600) is very good. You may worry that he’ll be lined up across from Brent Grimes this weekend, limiting his upside. But Grimes has played 93% of his snaps on one side of the field this season, while Hopkins has split his snaps all over the formation, according to PFF. The Texans know how important Hopkins is to their offense, and will work to get him open as often as possible. Nate Washington (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) will return this week, and with Cecil Shorts out, he should see a bulk of the targets that don’t go to Hopkins or Foster. He’s a punt option on PPR sites. But stick to Hopkins here, as he’s been incredibly good so far this season, and Miami doesn’t have the depth of personnel to shut him down in their defensive backfield.

The Takeaway: Hopkins is viable in all formats until we see proof that he’s slowing down, or that teams are literally double and triple teaming him on a majority of his snaps. Foster and Hoyer are both worthy of a look in tournaments, and Washington is a target machine who should haul in a few catches to keep the defense honest before Hoyer goes back to Hopkins.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: It hasn’t been pretty, but Ryan Tannehill (FD $7,700, DK $5,700) has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last four games. He also has seven interceptions in his last three, and hasn’t been as productive of a runner as we’ve seen in the past. But two touchdowns per game is a very healthy pace, especially leading up to a matchup with a Houston defense that ranks sixth in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. The Texans do get interceptions, they proved that by picking off Blake Bortles three times last weekend, but they also allow touchdowns. Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston both failed to throw for more than one touchdown, but the other four passers to face Houston all threw for two or three touchdowns. And there are some pretty mediocre passers in that bunch, as Bortles, Matt Hasselbeck and Alex Smith combined for eight touchdown throws and each had over 200 yards passing against Houston. The major concern with Tannehill is a drop in volume, as he threw only 29 passes last week after attempting 44, 49 and 44 in his previous three starts. However, his previous three starts were all losses, not blowout wins, so it’s too early to assume Tannehill has taken a backseat in this offense. He’s a decent tournament play this weekend.

Running Game: Lamar Miller (FD $6,700, DK $4,600) was fed the rock in Week 6 against Tennessee, and did not disappoint. He got off to a hot start and finished with 19 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown and got plenty of time to rest at the end of a blowout win. He’ll now face a Houston defense that ranks ninth in points allowed to opposing backs, and 21st in DVOA run defense. No running back has gone over 100 yards against them on the ground this year, but Frank Gore and Devonta Freeman both had nice outings against this defense in recent weeks, and the Dolphins appear committed to using their talented back a bit more liberally than they did under their previous coaching staff. There are better options for cash games, but none at such a low price point, so Miller is in consideration there, but is better suited for tournaments, where his ownership percentage may be high, but won’t be as high as Freeman and Gurley.

Pass Catchers: Is it possible that the change in coaching staff changed the focus on offense away from Jarvis Landry (FD $7,100, DK $6,200)? He did find the end zone on a fancy trick play carry last week, but also had only four targets, the only single-digit target game for the LSU product this season, and his lowest target total since Week 7 of 2014. It could have been because of the blowout, which I tend to believe, but it could also be a sign that his incredible workload could be balancing out a bit to make room for Miller and the other wideouts. I’m willing to get burned going back to the well one more time on Landry, especially against a defense that has allowed big games to Leonard Hankerson, Bryan Walters and Andre Johnson out of the slot this season. Jordan Cameron (FD $5,500, DK $3,300) is a great option, as well, as a good tight end on a team coached by a tight end. Rishard Matthews (FD $6,400, DK $4,300) retained his role as the best outside receiver on the Dolphins through the coaching change, but slot receivers have done most of the damage against Houston this year, so I’ll limit my exposure to Cameron and Landry.

The Takeaway: This game should be played at a quick tempo, and while the Vegas total isn’t as high as we’d like, there should still be a healthy amount of points. As long as the Dolphins don’t run away with an easy win, Tannehill, Miller, Landry and Cameron should all be strong tournament plays. Miller and Cameron can both be considered for cash games, as well.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

New York Jets						New England Patriots
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		8.5	48	19.75				-8.5	48	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.8	7	28	7		Offense	36.6	1	9	29
Opp. Defense	20.6	10	16	22		Opp. Defense	15.0	1	1	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	28	6	26	12		New York Jets	2	2	5	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Marshall	53	37	4	511		Edelman	57	40	4	472
Decker	26	18	4	239		Amendola	22	17	1	206
Kerley	11	6	1	33		Martin	7	6	1	95
Cumberland	4	2	0	10		Gronkowski	38	23	5	425

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker (NYJ, Questionable), Bilal Powell (NYJ, Out), Dion Lewis (NE, Questionable)

NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.0
NE Matchup Rating: 7.0

New York Jets

Quarterback: If you saw Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,100, DK $5,200) at New England on your favorite daily fantasy football site and just scrolled right past, I wouldn’t blame you at all. Fitzpatrick is far from an elite quarterback, and the Patriots are Super Bowl favorites and on a roll at the moment. But they’ve also allowed the seventh-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season (despite having a top-ten defense against the pass according to Football Outsiders and numberFire), because teams get behind against them and are forced into throwing. Tyrod Taylor and Andrew Luck both had huge games against the Patriots, and Blake Bortles put up respectable numbers in his outing against New England. I expect Fitzpatrick to finish somewhere closer to Bortles than Taylor and Luck, but 20+ points at his current salary would be a fantastic return. Add in his ability to run with the ball, something the Patriots have allowed at times this season, and you have a nice bit of upside for a cheap player that many will ignore. He’s one of my top tournament options this weekend.

Running Game: Teams get behind against the Patriots and are forced to throw, which keeps opponents from continuing to attack what may be a somewhat suspect run defense. The advanced metrics from Football Outsiders and numberFire suggest this is a poor run defense, and Pro Football Focus’ player grades note that none of the “base” front seven for New England are better than an average player, while several are below replacement level. Some of these players are just slumping (like Rob Ninkovich and the entire linebacking corps), but others may just not be very good against the run, like the team’s rotation of interior linemen. I don’t think we can be confident that Chris Ivory (FD $7,800, DK $5,800) will continue to receive 20 or more touches in this game, but if he does, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him continue his 100-yard streak. The Patriots look a bit vulnerable against the run, and Ivory has been one of the best backs in the league this season. He carried a higher ownership level than I would have expected in Thursday contests, however, so his tournament appeal is lowered just a bit. But since he’s not named Gurley or Freeman, it’s unlikely his ownership will be that high, and should he outscore either or both of the popular backs, he’ll give you a big edge on a majority of the field.

Pass Catchers: Brandon Marshall (FD $8,200, DK $7,800) is the unquestioned top receiver for the Jets, and a healthy Eric Decker (FD $6,200, DK $5,300) is a strong secondary option. Both will be heavily involved should the Jets chase this game, but with Malcolm Butler likely to follow Brandon Marshall around, I think I prefer Decker at his discounted price. Marshall is more than capable of winning a few battles with Butler and getting on the board, so don’t rule him out, but Decker is the preferred option four tournament lineups.

The Takeaway: The Jets may not win this game, or even be all that competitive, but there are solid fantasy options to be found. Fitzpatrick, Ivory, Decker and Marshall should all find their way into a couple of your GPP rosters this weekend.

New England Patriots

Quarterback: The Jets are one of the most formidable opponents for an offense to face, as they rank first in run defense and second in pass defense according to Football Outsiders, and have allowed the second-fewest points to both quarterbacks and running backs this season in fantasy football. So what do you do with Tom Brady (FD $9,000, DK $8,500)? You play him anyway. The Jets did play well against Andrew Luck, but Brady is a tier (or two) ahead of the Stanford product, and is far better than the Manziel, McCown, Bradford, Tannehill and Cousins, the other quarterbacks the Jets have faced this season. I don’t expect 400 yards and four scores from Brady, but in a tough matchup, I expect the Patriots to lean on their strengths on offense, which means Brady throwing to his best receivers and playing at a quick tempo. He shouldn’t be more than 10% owned on any site this weekend, which puts him into tournament consideration as a bit of a contrarian option, something we rarely experience with one of the all-time great quarterbacks still playing at a high level.

Running Game: “Is this a Vereen or Ridley game?” has now become “Is this a Lewis or Blount game?” And it’s no more fun than it was before. Ryan Mathews was able to run for 108 yards against the Jets, but no other back has carried for more than 57 yards in a game against them, and only Darren Sproles has carried the ball for a touchdown this year. No back has caught more than 27 yards worth of passes against the Jets, either, and only Mathews found the end zone via the air. It’s tough to ignore both of these backs in this great offense, but we may have to this week. Dion Lewis (FD $7,000, DK $6,500) would be preferred thanks to his involvement in the passing game, but we’ve seen limited production from backs in that role against the Jets this season. LeGarrette Blount (FD $6,800, DK $4,800) may wind up scoring a touchdown (or two), but his production will be limited between the 20s against an elite run defense, and that makes him very, very tough to trust.

Pass Catchers: Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,100, DK $8,100) and Julian Edelman (FD $8,000, DK $8,200) are the two best receiving threats on the Patriots, and in a difficult matchup against an elite defense, they’ll be relied upon to carry the offense along with Tom Brady. You may have been disturbed by the way Edelman’s finger looked last week, but he’s not listed on the injury report this week, and should be good to go, while Gronkowski has been playing a lesser role over the past couple of weeks, he’s apparently healthy and still the best tight end in the NFL. Only three receivers and no tight ends have gone over 50 yards against New York this season, and those receivers (Moncrief, Benjamin, Stills) don’t provide much of a common thread to learn about how to attack this defense. We’re likely to see Darrelle Revis follow Edelman around, even into the slot, so I lean toward Gronkowski as the player to pair with Brady in tournaments, but Edelman is capable of getting open against Revis, especially with the way the Patriots move players around and use route combinations to get better matchups and opportunities for their receivers. Danny Amendola (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) will likely see a slightly easier matchup, but his workload is unstable, and he’s tough to trust outside of a contrarian tournament lineup.

The Takeaway: Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are top tournament options this weekend, while Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Dion Lewis face uphill battles, but are worthy of consideration as well.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

Oakland Raiders						San Diego Chargers
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	47	21.5				-4	47	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.4	20	25	31		Offense	22.7	15	1	26
Opp. Defense	26.8	26	7	29		Opp. Defense	24.8	19	30	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	8	31	3	14		Oakland Raiders	15	13	13	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Crabtree	48	27	1	318		Allen	71	53	3	601
Cooper	44	28	2	388		Floyd	31	16	1	310
Roberts	16	7	2	80		Johnson	25	18	2	205
Smith	4	4	0	28		Gates	27	18	2	187

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Michael Crabtree, Latavius Murray (OAK, Probable), Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gates, Stevie Johnson (SD, Questionable)

OAK Matchup Rating: 4.5
SD Matchup Rating: 6.0

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: Derek Carr (FD $6,700, DK $5,300) has been surprisingly good this season, rebounding from an injury-shortened first outing to throw eight touchdowns and only three picks over his last four starts. He had his worst game against this toughest opponent, the Broncos, but has otherwise been a multiple-touchdown, limited-turnover guy in a small sample this season. This weekend he faces a defense that ranks 15th against the pass per DVOA, and that has allowed multiple touchdowns to four of six quarterbacks they’ve faced (with the exceptions coming from Bridgewater and Vick, not exactly elite options). Carr’s price has remained low, so even two touchdowns, 200 yards and an interception would likely rank him as a top-ten point-per-dollar quarterback when all is said and done this weekend. His upside is a bit higher than that, which is why I like him in tournaments, but not as much as Fitzpatrick or a couple of other cheaper options.

Running Game: The Chargers are decent against the pass, but terrible against the run. They rank 30th in DVOA against opposing running games, and have allowed the fourth-most points to the RB position this season. Six backs have gone over 100 total yards in six games against this defense, and running backs have scored a total of nine touchdowns against the Chargers in 2015. Latavius Murray (FD $7,000, DK $6,100) was hurt/benched for fumbling two games ago, and then limited by a tough Denver defense in his last outing (and also sent to the bench again, again due to injury and general ineffectiveness). But there’s no better remedy for a struggling runner than to face the Chargers, and while it’s possible Murray may not see the 26 carries he received in his breakout game against Cleveland, he only needs 15-18 to pick up 100 yards and a touchdown (and hit value) this weekend. He’s not going to be heavily owned, so you can use him liberally in tournaments as a way to break away from the Gurley/Freeman masses.

Pass Catchers: The Bolts have been very, very tough on receivers this season, allowing no more than 79 yards from any single wideout, and giving up only four scores to receivers this season. That includes keeping some big names in check, like A.J. Green, Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson. So while it’s tough to trust an Oakland receiver here, there are plenty of reasons to like Michael Crabtree (FD $5,900, DK $4,300). He’s seen eight or more targets in four of five games this season, and his teammates and coaching staff trust him and want to get him more involved. This isn’t for the faint of heart, but he’s a good tournament pairing with Carr. Amari Cooper (FD $7,300, DK $6,500) has the talent and upside to make a big play or two against even a tough opponent, but with his coverage expected to be provided by Jason Verrett, I much prefer Crabtree if I’m rostering an Oakland wideout. Tight ends have found some success against the Chargers, but there’s no tight end worth targeting in Oakland.

The Takeaway: Latavius Murray is one of my favorite tournament plays, and Derek Carr and Michael Crabtree are both interesting options. The Raiders should find a bit of success this weekend against the Chargers, and it’s likely to be concentrated between those three or Amari Cooper.

San Diego Chargers

Quarterback: Philip Rivers (FD $8,000, DK $6,500) has been very productive this season, throwing the ball early and often and picking up plenty of yards and several touchdowns along the way. Over his last three starts, he’s thrown seven touchdowns, one interception, and over 1200 yards on 151 attempts. This volume and ability create a DFS gold mine, and the Raiders are not the team to slow him down. Oakland played well against Peyton Manning last time out, but allowed two touchdowns and over 260 yards passing to every other QB they faced to start the season, and we can expect more of the same for the San Diego signal caller. He will only be limited this week by the health of his receivers, as his two best receiving options are currently hurting and in some degree of doubt for Sunday’s game. I still think Rivers is a strong option in any format if one of Gates or Allen misses out, but if both sit out, Rivers is relegated to tournaments only.

Running Game: The Raiders are tougher than you would expect against the run, ranking seventh in DVOA and numberFire’s rankings against the ground game. Matt Forte needed 25 carries to get to 91 yards, while no other back has gone over 70 rushing yards this season against Oakland. Melvin Gordon (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) hasn’t been playing well, and is dealing with an injury, so Danny Woodhead (FD $6,000, DK $4,600) is the back you want if you’re targeting this situation at all. The veteran back has three or more receptions in every game and is a top option in the red zone for the Chargers, providing high-value opportunities on an offense that may be lacking on other options this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Keenan Allen (FD $8,100, DK $7,700), Steve Johnson (FD $5,700, DK $3,500) and Antonio Gates (FD $5,800, DK $5,000) are all dealing with injuries, and while current reports indicate all three stand a good chance of playing this weekend, they’ve all been limited or out during practice this week. Allen and Gates are the key figures here, as the duo are the best receiving options on the roster, and should be heavily targeted against an Oakland defense that has allowed the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends, and that allowed Steve Smith and Emmanuel Sanders to go over 100 yards receiving from the receiver position. Both Allen and Gates are great options to pair with Rivers if they play, and Johnson becomes a viable play should either sit. If Gates is out, Ladarius Green (FD $5,100, DK $2,900) becomes an appealing option as a top tight end against a team with no clue how to defend tight ends, but he’s not reliable enough for cash game use.

The Takeaway: Watch the injury report, and load up on this passing game if Allen or Gates are healthy. If both are good to go, Rivers may challenge for top scorer at quarterback this weekend. Woodhead is the only running back option you want to consider, and only in a couple of tournament lineups.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Dallas Cowboys						New York Giants
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3.5	45	20.75				-3.5	45	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.2	25	27	25		Offense	23.2	13	11	24
Opp. Defense	22.7	14	31	6		Opp. Defense	26.2	22	17	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	17	23	15	27		Dallas Cowboys	15	30	10	7
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Williams	33	14	2	223		Beckham Jr.	60	38	4	492
Beasley	27	22	0	214		Randle	32	24	2	261
Street	5	2	0	31		Harris	19	13	1	152
Witten	37	30	2	271		Donnell	35	24	2	183

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Dez Bryant (DAL, Doubtful)

DAL Matchup Rating: 4.0
NYG Matchup Rating: 5.5

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback: The Cowboys have made a change under center, turning to Matt Cassel (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) instead of Brandon Weeden. Cassel is seen as a more aggressive player, which is proven out in a small way by their average depth of target numbers through their careers (via PFF). Cassel has historically averaged an extra yard on his targets compared to Weeden, and should be more inclined to get the ball down the field and try to open up a very stagnant offense. With Dez Bryant unlikely to return until next week, he doesn’t have a ton of options in the passing game to target downfield, but he should do a bit more to spark the offense than Weeden did. With that said… he’s a bad quarterback, and on a week with good, cheap options, against a not terrible pass defense, I’m going to pass.

Running Game: Everyone is waiting for Christine Michael (FD $5,600, DK $3,000) to finally “get his chance” to “show what he can do.” The Texas A&M product has insane levels of hype for a player with 54 career carries, and especially for a player who was cut for Thomas Rawls this preseason. He’s got athletic ability, but that only goes so far, and his inability to stick with the Seahawks leaves me with doubts about his ability to be a featured back anywhere. He’s in the best possible spot with the Cowboys, who have a great offensive line, but I still don’t think he’s going to step right in and be a featured back his his career high for carries in a season is 34. Even if there’s postive press about Michael, it would be an upset of sorts to see a career reserve step in and get 20 touches in an offense with two established backs already in place. Do I think Joseph Randle (FD $6,800, DK $5,500) is good? No. I don’t think Darren McFadden (FD $6,000, DK $3,100) is, either. But they’re both going to continue to feature in this offense, and I would be surprised to see anything but some sort of three-way split, with McFadden seeing more passing game work, and Randle and Michael dividing up the rushing attempts in a 65/35 sort of split. McFadden holds the most value to me in PPR formats, as he’s apparently taken over the Lance Dunbar role, as the Giants are a top-five run defense per DVOA, but have allowed some decent performances to running backs in the passing game, including the aforementioned but now injured Dunbar in Week 1.

Pass Catchers: If the Cowboys are serious about being more aggressive on offense, that means more throws to Terrance Williams (FD $5,900, DK $4,200). There are multiple injuries in the New York defensive backfield, leaving an already mediocre pass defense with one great corner (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) who normally plays a side, meaning the Cowboys can line up in a way that keeps Williams away from his capable coverage. Williams is the most talented receiver on the Dallas roster, and if they want big plays, they’re going to need to come through Williams. If Cole Beasley (FD $5,200, DK $3,200) were slated to get more than six targets, he’d be a PPR option, but a more “aggressive” offense is unlikely to feature Beasley more than the previous, “passive” one. Jason Witten (FD $5,600, DK $4,800) scored twice against this defense in Week 1, and is one of four tight ends to go for 60 or more yards against the Giants. He’s in play once again in any format.

The Takeaway: We don’t yet know what a Matt Cassel Cowboys offense looks like, nor do we know how big of a role Christine Michael will play moving forward. I am taking the cautious approach with both situations, as the road underdog Cowboys and their slowest-tempo-in-the-league offense aren’t in a spot I’m thrilled about here.

New York Giants

Quarterback: Dallas ranks slightly below average against both the run and pass according to Football Outsiders and numberFire, but it has been running backs that have done the most fantasy point damage against them this season. Eli Manning (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) was held without a touchdown in the team’s first meeting, but in their last three outings, the Cowboys have allowed two touchdowns and no interceptions to three of the league’s better quarterbacks (Ryan, Brees and Brady). Manning is of a similar quality when compared to Ryan and Brees these days, so he’s capable of recreating that level of performance against Dallas. However, there are several cheaper quarterbacks we can pencil in for 250 yards and a couple of scores, so I don’t see much reason to spend for Manning when Newton, Rivers, Palmer and Brees are just a few bucks more, and there are strong value plays as well.

Running Game: Running backs have found the end zone seven times in five games this season against the Cowboys, but three of those came from Devonta Freeman in Week 3. The Giants didn’t have a ton of success on the ground in Week 1 against Dallas, but did manage to punch in a score from Rashad Jennings (FD $6,300, DK $4,000). Jennings’ workload is far too trust him to get close to 100 yards without a big play, and he inexplicably splits red zone carries with Andre Williams (FD $5,400, DK $3,000). There’s just not a ton of safety here, as even Shane Vereen (FD $5,600, DK $4,300) doesn’t have a consistent role we can bank on in a good matchup. Jennings and Vereen are tournament plays, as either could break a big gain or find the end zone and hit value, but otherwise, I’m going to pass on an otherwise appealing situation.

Pass Catchers: The Giants must hate fantasy football, as their backfield is a mess and their All-World talent at wide receiver isn’t getting the targets he deserves. Twice this season, Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $9,000, DK $8,700) has been limited to only eight targets, and he has another game with only nine looks in the passing game. He’s able to do a lot with those targets, and is still a great fantasy option, but as one of the best receivers in the league, his offense needs to do a better job of getting him good looks and letting him go up and win jump balls against inferior defenders. Will that happen against Dallas? It might not, but it should. Julio Jones and Julian Edelman both posted at least 120 yards and one touchdown against the Cowboy defense, which does not feature a lockdown defender in the backfield to keep track of a player like Beckham. I will have my fair share of Beckham in tournaments, especially with the value plays available elsewhere, but I don’t think he’s viable for cash games thanks to the stubborn nature of this coaching staff. Rueben Randle (FD $5,700, DK $4,400) has a limited role and little upside, and the tight end situation is now too unclear to consider, so stick with Beckham if you want exposure to the Giants passing game.

The Takeaway: This should be a really appealing spot for several members of the New York offense, but the roles and workloads don’t set up well for a majority of the players we’d consider. Beckham is always a top option, and Manning and the running backs have some value, but this isn’t a great spot to go for offensive floor (or ceiling, outside of Beckham). The defense does hold a bit of value against Cassel, who threw interceptions on 4% of his passes in Minnesota, and considering the Cowboys’ low total and slow tempo.

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