NHL Grind Down: Friday, March 3rd
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Andrei Vasilevskiy |  | Matt Murray | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 29-25-8 | 38-16-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.77 | 2.76 | 22.80% | 80.60% | Team Stats | 3.42 | 2.79 | 21.60% | 80.40% |
With the status of Steven Stamkos up in the air for the rest if the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have decided to tell their team they are not looking to make the playoffs this season. By trading Ben Bishop, Brian Boyle and Valtteri Filppula that was a clear even though the team is just four points out of a playoff with 20 games remaining. The Lightning will go with two scoring lines as that is all they can afford to have now. Nikita Kucherov is the chalk play here as he centers the top line along with Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson. They also get the extra minutes when the Lightning draw a penalty. Kucherov has a mind blowing 17 points in the last 11 games while Johnson’s three goals and eight assists in his last nine games isn’t bad either. Brayden Point, Alex Killorn and Jonathan Drouin will serve as the second line and should get some opportunities to score tonight. Drouin looks to be the one-off here however as he has grabbed three goals and five assists in the last 10 games while being a permanent fixture on the top power play unit. Drouin has grabbed 18 of his 39 points with the man advantage in the 53 games he has suited up for. Defenseman Victor Hedman is the choice on the back line and has caught fire over the last few weeks by finding the score sheet 12 times in the last 11 games. This only adds to his seasonal total which now stands at 53 points in 59 games, good enough for second on the team.
Pittsburgh comes into this game in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 84 points. Considering that the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders are tied for the last divisional playoff spot with 70 points, it’s probably safe to say that they will be headed for the end of the season tournament which starts next month. In the meantime the will see Sidney Crosby center the top line along with Jake Guentzel and Chris Kunitz while Evgeni Malkin handles the second line with Carl Hagelin and Patric Hornqvist. It is unclear as to whether or not defensemen Kris Letang will dress for this game as he has missed the last three games with an upper body injury. Even if Letang does play fellow defenseman Justin Schultz makes for a decent play here as he is just one point away from chalking up his first 40 point season. Phil Kessel makes for a nice one-off play here as he gets the top minutes on the team’s explosive power play unit and has tallied 26 of his 56 points skating with Crosby, Malkin and Hornqvist with the extra attacker. If you need some salary relief I’d think long and hard about pairing up Crosby with Guentzel as he has reaped the benefits of the Conor Sheary injury by posting eight of his 15 points over the last 11 games. Pittsburgh should improve on their 24-4-3 record in front of the home crowd so don’t be surprised if a lot of Penguins pop up in your cash games tonight.
Elite Plays
TB: Nikita Kucherov
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin
Secondary Plays
TB: Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat
PIT: Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist, Justin Schultz
Arizona Coyotes at Carolina Hurricanes
| Arizona Coyotes | Carolina Hurricanes | ||||||||
 | Louis Domingue |  | Cam Ward | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 22-34-7 | 25-25-10 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.32 | 3.21 | 14.70% | 77.30% | Team Stats | 2.48 | 2.83 | 17.20% | 85.70% |
Arizona continues to be the second worst team in the league as they finish up an unproductive three game road trip here in Raleigh tonight. The good news is that they have been scoring a few goals of late which has made Radim Vrbata almost rosterable as he has tallied eight of his team leading 47 points over the last eight games. Brendan Perlini and Peter Holland skate with him on the team’s top line while Max Domi, Christian Dvorak and Teemu Pulkkinen skate on the second line. Domi and company look to be a nice line stack for tournament play as they will more than likely not draw the Hurricanes top defensive unit when it’s their turn to take their regular shift. Domi’s six points over the last seven games is second on the team while Pulkkinen scored in the first game with his new team. Defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the choice from the back line as he is second on the team with 34 points but has been cold of late as evidence of his one point in the last two weeks. There’s at least four other good teams to build our cash game lineups with tonight and this is not one of them.
Carolina’s home record of 18-9-2 has taken a hit over the last five home games as all they could manage was a 3-0 win against a depleted Ottawa team last Friday night. It’s like the switch went off for the team once they realized that their playoff chances were almost slim to none. They should however be able to beat an Arizona team that has won just eight games on the road this season. Sebastian Aho, Victor Rask and Elias Lindholm is the line to target here as they are the team’s top line and should get more than their fair share of scoring opportunities tonight. The matchup here warrants this more than anything as the Hurricanes have only been able to muster 13 goals in the last 10 games. Rask and Lindholm lead the team with four points apiece in the last seven games while the return of Jeff Skinner may help the team tonight. Skinner leads the team with 20 goals and 20 assists in 57 games so far this season and was sidelined on Wednesday with a stiff neck. He will skate with Lee Stempniak and Jay McClement so look for him to return tonight and be used as a one-off play only for both cash and tournament plays. Staal skates on the third line and is fourth on the team with 32 points so far this season which exemplifies why rostering Hurricanes is always a risky play. Defensemen Justin Faulk and Jaccob Slavin are the best choices from the back line as they are the only two defensemen to have recorded 20 or more points so far this season when Carolina’s defensemen are concerned. Faulk has the slight lead with 25 points but has been held off the score sheet over the last two weeks. This matchup can either be a boom or bust as usually is the case when two bad teams get together. Sure they may score, but trying to figure out who scores is harder to do when your leading scorer is averaging less than half a point a game.
Elite Plays
ARZ: Radim Vrbata
CAR: Jeff Skinner
Secondary Plays
ARZ: Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Christian Dvorak
CAR: Victor Rask, Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, Lee Stempniak, Justin Faulk
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
| St. Louis Blues | Winnipeg Jets | ||||||||
 | Jake Allen |  | Michael Hutchinson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 31-26-5 | 28-30-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.77 | 2.87 | 22.00% | 84.00% | Team Stats | 2.92 | 3.19 | 17.30% | 76.70% |
St Louis is another team like Tampa in the fact that they traded some vital pieces giving off the vibe that the front office doesn’t think the team will go far in the playoffs. The thing with the Blues is that they would be in the playoffs had the end of the season tournament started today. Jori Lehtera centers Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz on the top line while Paul Stastny skates with Alexander Steen and Nail Yakupov on the second line at even strength. Yakupov gets yet another chance to skate in the top six but I wouldn’t expect any miracles based on his track record. He has had plenty of opportunities here in St Louis as well as in the team that drafted him, the Edmonton Oilers. Tarasenko leads the team with 56 points and could be considered a one off here but I would probably look to the second line and Steen and Stastny for a cheaper duo play tonight. There is no question the Blues need to get their scoring going as they have scored just six goals in their last four games which, as you can imagine, resulted into all losses. With the Kevin Shattenkirk trade Alex Pietrangelo is the recipient of logging the most time from the back line on the team’s top power play unit. He has responded by registering four points in the last seven games which is about right on par as he has tallied 31 points in 61 games so far this season. With the extra ice time he should be able to improve a little bit in terms of his points-per-game average. Winnipeg is a team that has given up 205 goals so far this season so it’s very doubtful they can keep the Blues off the board tonight.
The Jets can gain some ground on St Louis here as they are five points away from them for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. If they hand the Blues two points tonight it would probably mean that they can start making tee times for mid-April. Winnipeg has scored 23 goals in their last six games and should be able to find the net tonight on home ice. Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler and Bryan Little will stay on one scoring line while Mathieu Perreault will continue to skate with Patrik Laine, who leads the team with 31 goals, and Mark Scheifele whose 65 points is tops on the team. Laine and Scheifele have been on fire over the last eight games by combining for 25 points while taking Perreault along for the ride as he has lit the lamp three times to go along with six assists over that same time frame. I have no problem using these guys in a full line stack for tournaments while cutting back to two of them may be the way to go in cash game play. Dustin Byfuglien is the play on the back line as he has collected six of his 40 points over the last eight games while manning the point on the team’s top power play line. It looks like Tobias Enstrom has been placed next to Byfuglien when the jets have the extra attacker so punting him may be optimal as well. The Jets score goals but their problem is keeping them out of their own net.
Elite Plays
STL: Vladimir Tarasenko
WIN: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele
Secondary Plays
STL; Alexander Steen, Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo
WIN: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Dustin Byfuglien, Mathieu Perreault
New York Islanders at Chicago Blackhawks
| New York Islanders | Chicago Blackhawks | ||||||||
 | Jean-Francois Berube |  | Corey Crawford | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-22-10 | 40-18-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.93 | 2.93 | 15.90% | 79.70% | Team Stats | 3.00 | 2.52 | 18.80% | 76.40% |
The Islanders head into tonight’s game doing quite well on their current nine game road trip. Their only blemish so far was the 7-0 drubbing they took at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets last Saturday night. The three wins they have collected so far has kept the team in contention for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference as their 70 points have them deadlocked with the Toronto Maple Leafs for eighth place in the division. John Tavares, Anders Lee and Josh Bailey is the GPP line to target here as they are 1-2-3 on the team in scoring with Tavares being the one-off here with 53 points in 62 games. New York is basically a one-line team so by shutting this line down opponents can easily win the game. Brock Nelson and Andrew Ladd play on a line with the recently recalled Josh Ho-Sang who had put up 36 points in 48 games at Bridgeport before making his NHL debut last night. Ryan Strome makes for a cheaper one-off option here as he skates on the third line but jumps up to play with the top line when the Islanders have the extra attacker. Strome has collected seven of his 28 points over the last ten games with two of those coming with the man advantage. Defenseman Nick Leddy is the choice on the back line as he soaks a lot of the extra minutes quarterbacking the team’s top power play unit. Leddy has registered 12 of his 34 points on the power play while posting six points over the last 10 games. Look for the Islanders to lose here but it’s unlikely that Chicago has enough to shut them out tonight.
Suddenly the Blackhawks have become a mess especially since Artem Anisimov took a shot the other night and is likely not going to suit up for tonight’s game. Nick Schmaltz will not play in the game tonight either due to illness. Jonathan Toews will stay with Richard Panik and probably draw Ryan Hartman as their linemate much like last game after Anisimov was injured in the second period. Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin may have Tanner Kero as their center, at least to start the game and if things go well enough he could be the sneaky play of the night. Toews and Kane are probably the guys to stick with here as they have combined for 28 points over the last eight games. Panik has a very respectable five goals and five assists over the last three weeks and looks to be on the team’s top power play with Toews and Kane. Duncan Keith is the play at the blue line as he has found the score sheet 43 times in the 63 games Chicago has played. It also doesn’t hurt that he is the man guy when it comes to directing a power play unit that has scored just one goal in their last seven games. Even if the Blackhawks are a bit short-handed they should still be able to handle the one-line Islanders and improve on their 21-8-4 record in front of the home crowd tonight.
Elite Plays
NYI: John Tavares
CHI: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews
Secondary Plays
NYI: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee, Nick Leddy, Ryan Strome
CHI: Richard Panik, Duncan Keith, Artemi Panarin
Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames
| Detroit Red Wings | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Petr Mrazek |  | Brian Elliott | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 25-26-10 | 34-26-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.39 | 2.95 | 13.10% | 81.30% | Team Stats | 2.63 | 2.75 | 19.60% | 80.00% |
It took trading Thomas Vanek to finally get Dylan Larkin back into the top six as he will now skate with Frans Nielsen and Andreas Athanasiou. He will however be left off of the top power play unit that will see his two linemates join Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha and defenseman Niklas Kronwall to form the team’s top unit. Although the Red Wings are basically out of the playoff conversation they have been playing good hockey of late by racking up three wins in their last four games. Zetterberg is the easy one-off cash game play here as he has registered seven points over the last nine games which has increased his team scoring lead to 48 points in the 63 games he has played in. Mantha has started to be a better play by virtue of playing next to Zetterberg as he has lit the lamp 13 times and has added 18 assists so far this season. Tomas Tatar skates with them at even strength but has been able to manage 28 points so far this season without the benefit of playing on the top power play unit on most nights. Nielsen and company should have a little bit of room to skate out there tonight as there is no doubt that Calgary will have their best defensive line against Zetterberg for most of the night. It is for this reason that they would make sense to target them for tournament play. They will easily be low owned and could receive a jolt here from the 20 year old Larkin, who by the way, is just one shot shy of Zetterberg’s team leading 139 shots on goal. Defenseman Niklas Kronwall has grabbed three assists over the past seven games while quarterbacking the top power play line and it’s more of he just gets in the way thing as it is he is that good anymore. His eight points in 38 games should attest to that so maybe it’s better looking a Mike Green who has been able to light the lamp 10 times and grab 16 assists along the way.
Thanks to their current five game winning streak it looks like the Flames may actually belong in this year’s playoffs. Their 72 points has them sitting in fourth place in the Pacific Division which is good for seventh place in the Western Conference. Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Micheal Ferland is probably the chalk line here tonight as Gaudreau is back on track as he has grabbed eight points in the last eight games. This gives him 13 goals and 33 assists in the 53 games he has suited up for. Monahan and Ferland have chipped in with five and four points respectively over the last eight games and either make for a decent pairing with the Flames young superstar. For cash games it’s probably best to stick with Monahan, while GPPs would warrant grabbing Ferland at a cheaper, less owned price. Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik skate as the team’s second line and could certainly contribute tonight against a Red Wings team that is playing their second game away from the home crowd. T.J. Brodie gets the top minutes with the man advantage from the back line and should be viewed as in play tonight. Dougie Hamilton is the chalk play here however as he has fired a team leading 182 shots on goal while leading the defensemen in scoring with 39 points.
Elite Plays
DET: Henrik Zetterberg
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau
Secondary Plays
DET: Anthony Mantha, Frans Nielsen, Dylan Larkin, Mike Green
CGY: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk, Dougie Hamilton, Mikael Backlund, T.J. Brodie