NHL Grind Down: Monday, March 27th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-03-28 01:52:30

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Detroit Red Wings					Carolina Hurricanes
			Petr Mrazek					Eddie Lack
			Record					Record
			30-32-12					33-27-13
Team Stats	2.37	2.95	14.00%	82.00%	Team Stats	2.62	2.78	18.00%	85.30%

Red Wings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.3 CF% / 42.8 GF% / 47.5 xGF%
Hurricanes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51 CF% / 49.3 GF% / 50.9 xGF%

The Red Wings played at home against Minnesota yesterday afternoon. Detroit’s offense remains a very low event, low threat squad. While Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, and Tomas Tatar constitute the closest thing to a consistent and legitimate scoring threat, the team just doesn’t have a high ceiling most nights. Tonight they’ll face off against a Carolina squad that plays up-tempo but has worked their quality shot and scoring chances allowed numbers down at 5v5 over their past 25 games. Eddie Lack has been playing well in net, too, turning his season around down the stretch. Despite Carolina playing quick they don’t tend to allow a high volume of shots to reach the net. This is a major concern for the Red Wings because in addition to being a low event, low shot team, it’s not as if they are posting a high percentage of their shots at an elevated quality. In fact, over the past 25 games they have the worst high-danger Corsi-For per 60 at 5v5 and the third worst scoring-chances for rate. Therefore, despite the potential for Lack to revert to previous form, this is a low floor, low ceiling night for Red Wing forwards. Carolina has a strong penalty kill too, and with Detroit rocking one of the worst power plays in the league, there isn’t a bump on the man advantage. Jordan Staal figures to draw out plenty against the top line which will reduce Detroit’s biggest threat. Individually Staal has been difficult to play against and has a strong 5v5 xGF% of 58%, so the Wings top line is likely going to struggle to drive play. Secondary scorers such as Andreas Athanasiou, Dylan Larkin, and Anthony Mantha will need to step up. Mantha in particular has been very good when given an opportunity this year. He has the best 5v5 CF% among Red Wings regulars. Larkin and Athanasiou have mostly struggled to push play this year on the third line but Athanasiou is a speed merchant that could create space in an open game.

Carolina has a bit of a better outlook tonight. While Detroit does play a much slower game than Carolina, at the very least the ‘Canes should be able to spring a good number of rushes in to the Detroit zone. The Wings don’t allow a high volume of shot attempts at 5v5, but over their past 25 games they have been allowing the quality of shots allowed to creep up. With Jimmy Howard playing yesterday, look for Petr Mrazek to be in the cage in Carolina. Mrazek is a mostly favorable draw for Carolina’s forwards, as he has not been strong at 5v5 this year despite his last two starts going well. Keep an eye on the line assignments after Carolina’s morning skate today. As Bill Peters is wont to do, there has been a little bit of shuffling. Sebastian Aho has moved down a line while Phil Di Giuseppe has skated next to Jordan Staal and Teuvo Teravainen. Aho is a nice volume shooter so his value isn’t overly hurt, and he’ll still be playing next to a surging Elias Lindholm. Victor Rask has largely disappointed this year, but he’s got a great opportunity now and has shown scoring ability in the past. Jeff Skinner, Derek Ryan, and Lee Stempniak are playing well together on the ‘third’ line, and this trio has seen a fair amount of success together this year. There are certainly some values to be had among the Carolina forward group and the matchup makes them viable in most formats. Contributions from the blue line have been sporadic besides those from Justin Faulk, and even he hasn’t been finding much ink in the boxscore of late.

Red Wings Elite Plays: None
Red Wings Secondary Plays:Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Dylan Larkin

Hurricanes Elite Plays:Sebastian Aho, Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm
Hurricanes Secondary Plays:Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk, Derek Ryan, Lee Stempniak, Victor Rask

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Florida Panthers					Buffalo Sabres
			James Reimer					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			33-30-11					31-32-12
Team Stats	2.48	2.75	16.50%	86.10%	Team Stats	2.49	2.75	24.50%	77.20%

Panthers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.4 CF% / 48.2 GF% / 47.9 xGF%
Sabres 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 46.5 CF% / 43 GF% / 48.1 xGF%

Following another seven goal outburst, the Panthers offense will be treated to a favorable matchup for an encore. Buffalo’s defense, over the past 25 games, is second in the league in shot attempts allowed at 5v5 while seeing their high-danger shot attempts allowed per 60 increase as well. Of course, the problem for the Panthers tonight is that outside of a big game and a big there, their offense has struggled this year. In fact, they are in the bottom third of the league with regards to xGF/60. The quality of shots they are taking aren’t impressive, an odd quirk as they certainly have a talented stable of forwards. Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau are the high-end options here, and they figure to see plenty of Ryan O’Reilly at 5v5. Though O’Reilly remains a strong two-way forward, Buffalo’s defense is a mess and the defensive pairings the top Florida line is likely to see does not inspire much fear. In net, the Panthers will likely face Robin Lehner. To his credit, Lehner has been strong when facing a high volume of shots. He typically struggles with high-danger shot attempts, so the matchup for him is strong as Florida doesn’t generate such shots in high quantities. Jonathan Marchessault will look to follow up his hat trick over Chicago with another strong outing. Again, the matchup is right and there will be plenty of shot attempts to go around for the Panthers. Linemate Thomas Vanek hasn’t really done much since coming over from the Red Wings, but this line could benefit from facing Buffalo’s very low end of the roster. Barkov and Huberdeau have the best floor and ceiling combination tonight, but chasing Florida’s latest goal outburst may lead to disappointment. It’s too bad Aaron Ekblad won’t be able to suit up for this matchup as it would be right up his alley. Keith Yandle and Jason Demers will handle the bulk of the power play duty, and given that the Sabres penalty kill has struggled this year, there is upside on the man advantage. Michael Matheson is a cheap defender to keep in mind. He’s been a strong shot generator and given his price, has a decent floor.

A big win over the Maple Leafs last game could set the Sabres up for a trap game of sorts. Florida is an interesting opponent. On the one hand, they are a medium event team that doesn’t push play well and doesn’t have an ugly 5v5 CA/60. On the other hand, their defense is missing a key player in Aaron Ekblad and their high-danger shot attempts allowed are trending upward. Their 5v5 xGA/60 is now slightly above league average (2.6) so this isn’t a shy-away matchup. James Reimer is coming off a shutout and has played quite well this year. He has a 5v5 save percentage of .932 to support an all-situation .920 save rate. The Sabres, despite having some heavy firepower in the top six, remain a team unable to support consistent puck possession and play driving. With a poor defense they will likely remain a low volume Corsi-For team. That said, this isn’t a bad matchup for the known quantities. Kyle Okposo returned from injury and is back on the top line next to Ryan O’Reilly. He’s a huge addition to the top six, although his return did push Evander Kane back to a third line role last game. Jack Eichel remains a beast and is viable in all formats as always. He’ll have Sam Reinhart back on his line at 5v5 and on the power play, so Reinhart is a name to keep in mind again. Tyler Ennis doesn’t get a lot of love, but he’s skating on O’Reilly’s line and has three assists over his last three games. Rasmus Ristolainen remains suspended for this game, so former Panther Dmitry Kulikov should reprise his expanded role. Kulikov is not an overly strong asset in either the real nor fake games, so he’s not a must-play despite his potential correlation to the Sabres top six.

Panthers Elite Plays:Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Jonathan Marchessault
Panthers Secondary Plays:Vincent Trocheck, Thomas Vanek, Keith Yandle, Jason Demers, Jaromir Jagr

Sabres Elite Plays:Jack Eichel
Sabres Secondary Plays: Ryan O’Reilly, Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo, Evander Kane

Nashville Predators at New York Islanders

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Nashville Predators					New York Islanders
			Pekka Rinne					Thomas Greiss
			Record					Record
			38-25-11					35-27-12
Team Stats	2.97	2.72	20.50%	80.30%	Team Stats	2.89	2.97	15.30%	81.00%

Predators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.7 CF% / 51.5 GF% / 52 xGF%
Islanders 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49 CF% / 46.3 GF% / 47.1 xGF%

After a 7-2 stomping of the Sharks in Nashville on Saturday night, the Predators will look to follow up their big win against the Islanders. Working in Nashville’s favor is that the Isles have one of the league’s highest xGA/60 at 5v5 (2.85). New York plays an open game and they are prone to allowing a high number of shot attempts to reach the net. Additionally, their scoring chances allowed per game are among the highest in the league. Goaltending is a question mark. This will be the team’s third game in four nights and Jaroslav Halak was recalled from the AHL last week. He should start after Thomas Greiss picked up the last start, a loss to the Bruins. For all the clamoring to bring him back to the NHL Halak hasn’t been very good. His 5v5 save percentage is one of the worst in the league among goalies that have played at least 400 minutes. He hasn’t been overly poor in any particular area, it’s been a general ineffectiveness against shots of all quality. It’s worth noting that in New York’s last game, they put – wait for it – the Cody Cizikas line against Boston’s lethal top line. Lo and behold, the Bruins top line didn’t score. If the Isles use the Cizikas line similarly tonight, that would be a huge boost to Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson. Perhaps some short term results will influence the decision making, but no matter the matchup the Preds’ top line is a great play. There should be plenty of chances and the shot volume will be there, something this trio excels at. We finally saw Calle Jarnkrok and James Neal get together for some red lighting in Nashville’s last game. This is a very strong duo and with Kevin Fiala on the line, they make for a great low owned, low cost stack. Fiala is a very strong possession player so even if his counting stats aren’t there yet, his impressive 5v5 CF% and xGF/60 lend him well to the line. There should be plenty of chances to go around for the Predators tonight, so don’t let the fact they are on the road negate the fact New York is a favorable draw.

The best thing the Islanders have going for them tonight is that they should face Pekka Rinne. Rinne hasn’t been overly impressive this year, particularly since the All-Star break. He’s been better in the month of March but he is no longer the goalie that warrants auto-fades to opposing forwards. The Nashville defense is another story. With an impressive xGA/60 of just 2.35 and stingy on the quality scoring chances, New York will face a tough task working in the Nashville zone. Despite the tough setup, the top line remains one of the elite lines in the league. John Tavares, Anders Lee, and Josh Bailey may not have the highest ceiling tonight, but it’s certainly reasonable and the floor is acceptable for the six game slate as well. As with Nashville’s forwards, the New York forward group should benefit from a mostly open style of play. While the Islanders have provided some fun secondary plays of late (looking at you, Josh Ho-Sang) the matchup is less ideal for them. Nashville is not a pushover defense that hands out scoring chances like Halloween candy, so the forwards beyond the top line figure to struggle. Ho-Sang has flashed some serious skill in his NHL debut but he’s also been prone to some turnovers and defensive breakdowns like most young forwards, and that won’t fly against Nashville (particularly if he lines up against the Johansen and/or Jarnkrok lines). With Ryan Strome hurt, Anthony Beauvillier has moved up the second line and he’s been mostly buried at 5v5, so he is not advisable. Andrew Ladd could also struggle as a slower, more physical forward going against a staunch defense, making Ho-Sang a lone wolf on the second line. New York’s defensive group doesn’t contribute much to the offense and for DFS purposes they make for GPP only plays. Nick Leddy has the most prominent role but doesn’t shoot much; Thomas Hickey has the better 5v5 per 60 numbers but doesn’t play much.

Predators Elite Plays:Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi, James Neal
Predators Secondary Plays:Calle Jarnkrok, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, Kevin Fiala

Islanders Elite Plays:John Tavares, Josh Bailey, Anders Lee
Islanders Secondary Plays:Josh Ho-Sang

Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Chicago Blackhawks					Tampa Bay Lightning
			Corey Crawford					Andrei Vasilevskiy
			Record					Record
			48-21-6					36-29-9
Team Stats	2.93	2.55	18.90%	78.10%	Team Stats	2.73	2.77	22.00%	80.90%

Blackhawks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 52.3 CF% / 55.7 GF% / 48.3 xGF%
Lightning 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 53.4 CF% / 54 GF% / 51.8 xGF%

Chicago will look to respond following an embarrassing 7-0 loss at the hands of the Panthers Saturday night. Things don’t look great on paper for a big rebound performance. The Lightning do not allow a high volume of shot attempts, scoring chances, or high-danger shots at 5v5 and are tied with the Predators for fifth lowest xGA/60. For all of Chicago’s firepower, their 5v5 xGF/60 of 2.43 isn’t overly impressive. While Andrei Vasilevskiy struggled in three of his previous four games (with the one good start against Detroit which, come on) he’s been at least league average – and usually better — in net at 5v5. One thing working out for Chicago is that Marian Hossa is back from injury, helping to create a dangerous third line with Ryan Hartman. This line and Hartman in particular has been solid pushing play, so deep GPPers take note. Artem Anisimov is still at least another week away from returning, so look for Nick Schmaltz to remain the center between the highly productive Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin. This line should expect to see the most difficult coverage, namely Victor Hedman and Jake Dotchin on defense. It’s not an impossible matchup but it’s not favorable, to be sure. Tampa Bay has allowed 30 or more shots to reach the net in four of their last five games. It’s risky, but under a strong coach like Mr. Quenneville, a bounce back effort from Chicago might be in store.

Defensively the Blackhawks are a hit or miss team, if that makes sense. They tend to have breakdowns (not talking specifically about last game) that leave Corey Crawford out to dry, who has otherwise been very good at 5v5. The xGA/60 is in the top ~third of the league, while the CA/60 and SCA/60 aren’t extreme. HDCA/60 is somewhat high and the penalty kill is on the weak side. Basically, this isn’t an overly poor nor favorable matchup for the Lightning. The top line should be good to roll, with Brayden Point playing well between Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov. With Tampa Bay on home ice, the top line should avoid Niklas Hjalmarsson for the most part. That could mean that Jonathan Drouin, Alex Killorn, and Vladislav Namestnikov have a slightly worse night. While the game should feature some nifty playmaking and a good deal of offense, both goalies have been strong and that is particularly strong for Crawford. It isn’t a slam-dunk matchup for the Lightning, and chasing what happened to the Blackhawks in their last game is surely to result in disappointment.

Blackhawks Elite Plays:Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin
Blackhawks Secondary Plays:Marian Hossa, Ryan Hartman, Jonathan Toews

Lightning Elite Plays:Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman
Lightning Secondary Plays:Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin

Arizona Coyotes at St. Louis Blues

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Arizona Coyotes					St. Louis Blues
			Mike Smith					Jake Allen
			Record					Record
			27-39-9					40-28-6
Team Stats	2.32	3.19	14.50%	77.90%	Team Stats	2.78	2.68	21.90%	84.60%

Coyotes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 43.5 CF% / 45.9 GF% / 43.2 xGF%
Blues 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.5 CF% / 63.2 GF% / 50.8 xGF%

After holding their own (relatively speaking) against Washington, the Coyotes will look to inch closer to the finish line with a game in St. Louis, a tough draw to be sure. One potential spark for Coyotes is that Clayton Keller will be joining the team, a highly regarded prospect. (Unfortunately, he’s not widely available in player pools across the industry.) Regardless, this is an extremely unfavorable matchup for the Arizona forwards. Collectively Arizona is among the worst offenses in the league, failing to drive play or generate quality scoring chances outside of favorable matchups. Outside the deepest of GPPs, the Coyotes can continue to be ignored as St. Louis has the third lowest xGA/60 at 5v5. They are a low event team that clamps down defensively. Radim Vrbata is the closest thing to a “safe bet” for the Arizona forwards due to his shot volume, but he’s not recommended in this matchup. Jake Allen has allowed just eight goals over his past five starts and has been strong over the second half. With shot volume a major concern, there isn’t much upside here for Arizona.

All of the opposite can be applied to the Blues. As is par for the course with Coyotes’ opponents, expect heavy ownership on the Blues top line. Vladimir Tarasenko hasn’t scored in his past four games, but this is a slam-dunk matchup for him. Alex Steen and Jaden Schwartz join him on the top line while they also played next to the sniper on the power play in St. Louis’s last game. As such, Steen and Schwartz are fantastic corollary plays. We could see a bit more of the middle six in this one if things get out of hand a little early as St. Louis is locked in to a playoff spot (though they are fighting for position). Patrik Berglund is a low floor option but he has been on the ice for some quality shot attempts this year; David Perron and Magnus Paajarvi form an interesting second line. There is no such thing as a tough matchup against the Coyotes, especially on the road, as Arizona is among the most generous defenses in the league by any metric. Mike Smith is about the only thing that keeps Arizona from being up against a football score most nights, though he’s still consistently good for a field goal allowed. Down at the bottom of the price range is Igor Barbashev, a third line center with points in five of his last six games. He could be a candidate for increased usage beyond the 12 or so minutes he sees, but he rarely shoots so the production is likely to dry up without a promotion. In net Jake Allen is going to be a highly owned netminder. While the win is likely, shot volume could be a major issue so keep that in mind in tournaments. If he allows a goal or two, his value is sapped and he’ll probably carry 20%+ ownership.

Coyotes Elite Plays: None
Coyotes Secondary Plays: None

Blues Elite Plays:Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, Alex Steen, Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko
Blues Secondary Plays:David Perron, Patrik Berglund, Magnus Paajarvi

Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Colorado Avalanche					Calgary Flames
			Calvin Pickard					Brian Elliott
			Record					Record
			20-51-3					42-29-4
Team Stats	1.93	3.36	12.40%	77.90%	Team Stats	2.71	2.67	19.30%	81.00%

Avalanche 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.8 CF% / 39 GF% / 45.3 xGF%
Flames 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51 CF% / 57.4 GF% / 49.6 xGF%

The meek Colorado offense will slowly slide in to Calgary, a nasty matchup for most teams and surely a night of tough sledding for Avalanche forwards. While Calgary may not necessarily be a possession monster, they have one of the most dominant lines in hockey at driving play and a strong defensive group, including a shutdown top pairing. Brian Elliott is playing very well in net, too. Calgary’s 5v5 xGA/60 ranks them slightly above average defensively, while they do not allow many high-danger scoring chances to speak of. Elliott hasn’t posted an all situation save percentage below .900 in 12 starts; his only rough outing during that time was a road draw against the Blues where he allowed four goals on 40 shots. This is all to say the outlook isn’t impressive for Colorado tonight, to put the pen to paper on Vegas’ massive favoritism to Calgary. Expect the Mikael Backlund line to work against Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog on the top line, with Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton on the blueline. Even in a falling price environment, Duchene and Landeskog are risky bets as their floors will be near zero. Nathan MacKinnon should see better on-ice matchups. This line has been at least semi-productive of late, with Rantanen getting multiple pucks on net in six straight games and Andrighetto posting two goals and two assists over his previous five. There is some deep contrarian intrigue, and the upside is better than that of say a Coyotes contrarian option, but this is still a low floor, limited ceiling setup.

In the running with the Blues for heaviest favorite tonight, the Flames are sure to see heavy ownership among the top six. Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Michael Ferland are clicking right now. Gaudreau has posted points in four straight games (including two multipoint efforts) while Monahan has found the scoresheet in three of four as well (also with two multipoint games). Ferland is like Cheddar Bob to Gaudreau’s Eminimem – he isn’t overly talented but he’s in a spot to be of some value. The top line of Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, and Michael Frolik are among the best trios in the league in driving play. They are close to matchup proof and there is nothing to fear in this matchup, as Colorado is a low event team that cannot sustain play. This may not be a lid-lifting performance from Calgary, however, as the Avalanche aren’t the sieve-like defense as Arizona is. In fact, Colorado has a respectable 5v5 xGA/60 (2.51) and none of their CA/60, SCA/60, or HDCA/60 are egregious. For Calgary’s offense, this one has the feel of a nice high floor night. Likely starter Calvin Pickard has struggled at 5v5 to stop high quality shots, and not surprisingly, the Backlund has produced a healthy number of such shots. So too has Johnny Gaudreau. Colorado has had issues on the penalty kill and they are one of the more short-handed teams in the league, so a special teams boost is available for players like Kris Versteeg and T.J. Brodie. Over the past three games, the unit featuring Gaudreau and Monahan, with Brodie on the blueline, has seen slightly more playing time for stacking purposes. Brodie is a low floor asset and not conducive to cash games, necessarily, making him a better GPP play.

Avalanche Elite Plays: None
Avalanche Secondary Plays:Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen (GPP), Sven Andrighetto (GPP), Mark Barbiero (GPP)

Flames Elite Plays:Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik, Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton
Flames Secondary Plays:Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, Kris Versteeg, Troy Brouwer, T.J. Brodie