NHL Grind Down: Thursday, February 23rd
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
New York Islanders at Montréal Canadiens
| New York Islanders | Montréal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Thomas Greiss |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 28-21-10 | 32-20-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.98 | 2.92 | 16.30% | 79.80% | Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.55 | 21.10% | 80.10% |
A month ago, the New York Islanders looked to be lost and simply just going through the motions to get to the end of the season. Now, they’re playing their best hockey of the season and have remarkably climbed right back into the mix for one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. They cruised to an easy victory in Detroit on Tuesday and are now 12-4-2 over their last 18 games. While heading into the Bell Centre to square off against Carey Price is clearly not ideal, I’m not going to ignore their recent success. John Tavares is the clear leader of this hockey club and easily the top fantasy option to consider. He’s posted 22 goals and 28 assists in 59 games and has scored a goal and added two assists in the two prior meetings against the Canadiens. His presence on the top line has drastically elevated the offensive games of his linemates Josh Bailey and Anders Lee. After an abysmal start to the season, Lee has been a force down the stretch and owns eight goals and ten assists over his last 18 games. Former first round pick Ryan Strome has been highly inconsistent at the NHL level thus far, but he does have the luxury of playing alongside those three on the #1 power-play unit and remains very reasonably priced. He’s scored four goals and dished out six assists in 11 games since the All-Star break. On defense, Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk are the most reliable targets. They both see plenty of playing time on the point of the power-play and Montreal’s 80.1% penalty kill is one of their main weaknesses this season.
After a 13-1-1 start to the season, the Canadiens have really struggled to keep up their momentum as the season heads towards the home stretch. Montreal owns just a 5-9-2 record over their last 16 games and there is some panic in the air at the Bell Centre. They made a bold move bringing Claude Julien in behind the bench and picked up a very important win at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night with the hopes that he’ll be able to right the ship. While their recent struggles are concerning, they do own an impressive 18-8-2 home record this season and have averaged 3.20 goals per game on home ice as well. With Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher both finally back to full health, Julien does have two very dangerous scoring lines to attack the Islanders with tonight. Not surprisingly, Max Pacioretty leads the team in scoring and he’s been one of their only sources of offense lately. He’s scored four goals and added six assists in nine games during the month of February and headlines the top forward line alongside Phillip Danault and Alexander Radulov. This leaves Galchenyuk and Gallagher to join forces (along with Paul Byron) on the second line and those two have proven to be a very dangerous duo at times in years past. Pacioretty, Radulov, Gallagher and Galchenyuk all see a healthy dose of playing time on Montreal’s 10th ranked power-play and that should bode well for them considering New York’s poor 79.8% penalty kill. That poor penalty kill also means a big up-tick for Shea Weber and Andrei Markov on the blue-line. Weber has already scored a pair of goals and added an assist in the two prior games between these teams and possesses the high floor you should be targeting in cash games.
New York Islanders
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.71 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 10, 117.7 CP60
Elite Options
John Tavares ($8,100 FD, $7,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.83 CF60, 2.95 xGF60, 100.73 PDO
Secondary Options
Anders Lee ($5,000 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.52 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 102.29 PDO
Josh Bailey ($5,100 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.94 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 100.8 PDO
Ryan Strome ($4,700 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.04 CF60, 2.11 xGF60, 100.73 PDO
Brock Nelson ($4,800 FD, $4,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.45 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 102.07 PDO
Nick Leddy ($4,500 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.4 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 101.15 PDO
Johnny Boychuk ($4,700 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.87 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 100.22 PDO
Expected Netminder
Thomas Greiss – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Montreal Canadiens
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 52.33 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 20, 114.11 CP60
Elite Options
Max Pacioretty ($7,500 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.38 CF60, 2.85 xGF60, 100.68 PDO
Shea Weber ($5,700 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.25 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 101.64 PDO
Secondary Options
Alexander Radulov ($6,000 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.77 CF60, 2.97 xGF60, 101.72 PDO
Alex Galchenyuk ($5,700 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.63 CF60, 2.88 xGF60, 101.05 PDO
Phillip Danault ($4,700 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.5 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 99.76 PDO
Brendan Gallagher ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 70.89 CF60, 3.26 xGF60, 100.69 PDO
Andrei Markov ($5,000 FD, $4,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.99 CF60, 2.79 xGF60, 101.7 PDO
Jeff Petry ($4,200 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.91 CF60, 3.02 xGF60, 100.43 PDO
Expected Netminder
Carey Price – My Ratings (out of 10): 8 Cash, 8 GPP
Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning
| Calgary Flames | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Brian Elliott |  | Ben Bishop | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-26-4 | 27-24-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.60 | 2.83 | 19.80% | 81.00% | Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.78 | 21.50% | 81.00% |
I can’t figure this Calgary team out to save my life, so you’d probably be better served if I just made this section look like a Mad Libs book. “It’s clear that (Player Name) is the clear (Farm Animal) of this offense and should (Carpentry Tool) through the Lightning defense tonight.” In all seriousness, it’s clear the Calgary has the weapons to be a factor this spring, but they also happen to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the NHL. They did pick up a huge win in Nashville on Tuesday night and have posted a 6-3-1 record over their last ten games, so it’s possible we’re starting to see them hit their stride now. Glen Gulutzan has done his best to find three quality scoring lines, but outside of a GPP flier or two, it’s the top two lines that should be on your radar tonight. Johnny Gaudreau showed off his playmaking skills with a four assist night in Nashville and now has 39 points in 50 games. He had an assist in the only other meeting between these teams and has looked very comfortable playing alongside Sean Monahan and Troy Brouwer once again. Mikael Backlund actually leads the way with 41 points this season and centers a very capable secondary scoring line alongside impressive rookie Matthew Tkachuk and Michael Frolik. Tkachuk is now riding a three-game point streak and has racked up two goals and six assists in his last six games. On defense, T.J. Brodie continues to hold the job as the point-man on the top power-play unit and he’s been putting up solid numbers. He’s scored a goal and added six assists in eight games this month and did have a goal and an assist in that first meeting against Tampa. With that said, both Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton both still see plenty of run with the man-advantage and both players have tremendous fantasy upside.
Tampa Bay dug themselves into quite a hole with their play earlier this season, but John Cooper finally looks to have this team playing more like the team that made a deep run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. They’ve posted a 5-0-2 record in their last seven games and much of their recent success can be attributed to the emergence of a secondary scoring line as Jonathan Drouin and Brayden Point (with Alex Killorn) have stepped up their play offensively. While Drouin and Point are exciting to watch and intriguing GPP targets, Nikita Kucherov still reigns as the top fantasy option among Tampa forwards. He’s posted 53 points in 52 games this season and also leads the team with 168 shots on goal. Kucherov snapped out of a mini scoring funk with a goal and three assists in Tampa’s last game and is ability to create open space has been terrific news for his linemates Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Johnson has come alive with four goals and seven assists in his last ten games and his speed matches up very well against this Calgary team. Meanwhile, Palat potted a pair of goals against Edmonton on Tuesday, has now posted three goals and three assists in six games this month, and remains very reasonably priced industry wide. On defense, Victor Hedman is one of the top options on the board tonight. The former second overall draft-pick owns 10 goals and 38 assists in 56 games and facilitates things from the point of their lethal power-play. With Calgary entering tonight’s game as the most penalized team in the NHL this season, Hedman should skate into plenty of scoring chances this evening. If you’re looking for value, Anton Stralman also sees a healthy dose of power-play time and he may be holding the stick a bit less tight tonight after finally snapping a 12 game pointless skid in their last game.
Calgary Flames
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.25 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -16, 108.82 CP60
Elite Options
Johnny Gaudreau ($6,900 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.49 CF60, 2.61 xGF60, 96.21 PDO
Dougie Hamilton ($5,600 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.42 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 97.61 PDO
Secondary Options
Sean Monahan ($6,400 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.4 CF60, 2.51 xGF60, 97.96 PDO
Matthew Tkachuk ($5,200 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.26 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 99.13 PDO
Mikael Backlund ($5,200 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.87 CF60, 2.74 xGF60, 98.94 PDO
Mark Giordano ($5,400 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.59 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 100.84 PDO
T.J. Brodie ($4,200 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.91 CF60, 2.14 xGF60, 94.71 PDO
Expected Netminder
Brian Elliott – My Ratings (out of 10): 4.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.42 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -7, 109.83 CP60
Elite Options
Nikita Kucherov ($7,500 FD, $7,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.36 CF60, 3.01 xGF60, 102.52 PDO
Tyler Johnson ($5,800 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.6 CF60, 2.38 xGF60, 99.6 PDO
Victor Hedman ($6,400 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.45 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 100.28 PDO
Secondary Options
Ondrej Palat ($5,000 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.44 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 99.49 PDO
Jonathan Drouin ($5,400 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.61 CF60, 2.31 xGF60, 99.68 PDO
Brayden Point ($3,700 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.21 CF60, 2.35 xGF60, 100.64 PDO
Anton Stralman ($3,600 FD, $3,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.44 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 99.83 PDO
Expected Netminder
Ben Bishop – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7 GPP
New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs
| New York Rangers | Toronto Maple Leafs | ||||||||
 | Henrik Lundqvist |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-19-2 | 28-20-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.32 | 2.59 | 19.40% | 81.60% | Team Stats | 3.14 | 2.90 | 23.50% | 83.30% |
The Rangers were disappointed in their shootout loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday night, but Alain Vigneault has to be pleased with the way his team has played down the stretch. New York has posted a 7-1-1 record thus far during the month of February and are quickly climbing the ranks in the Metropolitan Division. Tonight, they figure to see a large fantasy boost thanks to the Toronto Maple Leafs frantic pace therefore figure to draw plenty of attention tonight. Much of New York’s recent success can be attributed to their incredible scoring depth, but that also happens to be a headache for DFS players at times. Each of their top three scoring lines has proven to be more than capable offensively, and five forwards have now already reach 40+ points on the young season. The top two lines (Jimmy Vesey, Derek Stepan and Rick Nash along with Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Mats Zuccarello) are widely viewed as the two most dangerous groupings, but it’s actually been the third line carrying the offensive load recently. J.T. Miller will actually enter this game leading the team with 46 points in 59 games and will be joined by Michael Grabner and Kevin Hayes. Despite his solid season and two goals and eight assists in nine games this month, Miller is rarely someone carrying high ownership levels. On defense, Ryan McDonagh is still the top target. He’s locked into 25+ minutes of ice-time per game, is the QB of the top power-play unit, and has picked up points in each of the last two games. Alternatively, former first-round pick Brady Skjei is starting to heat up. Skjei has dished out seven assists over the last eight games and has already scored a goal and added an assist in two prior meetings against the Maple Leafs this season.
With the race for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference really tightening up, Mike Babcock knows his team needs play very well down the stretch. Toronto picked up a very important overtime victory against the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday and will put their two-game winning streak on the line this evening. Mitch Marner will be out of action once again tonight, but Mike Babcock still has plenty of offensive firepower at his disposal. With 28 goals and 24 assists in 59 games, Auston Matthews leads the team in scoring and has made it clear why he was the first overall draft-pick in the 2016 draft. Matthews has poured in five goals and eight assists in his last ten games and is thriving alongside fellow youngster William Nylander. Nylander has scored seven goals and added three assists in that same ten game stretch and yet still remains very reasonably priced on most sites. If New York focuses on slowing that duo down too aggressively, James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak form a very dangerous tandem on another forward line, with Nazem Kadri centering the suddenly red hot Josh Leivo on another. Leivo dished out two more assists on Tuesday night, and with a goal and seven assists in his last five games, he’s one of the top value options on the board. While Kadri has been wielding a white-hot stick lately and has now racked up 12 goals and 14 assists in his last 22 games. Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev soak up most of the available minutes on the point of the Toronto power-play and that makes them fine targets this evening. Gardiner has finally snapped out of a scoring funk by exploding for two goals and three assists in the last two games. Meanwhile, Morgan Rielly has also provided plenty of scoring support and has flashed impressive offensive abilities.
New York Rangers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.63 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 16, 111.11 CP60
Elite Options
J.T. Miller ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.18 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 103.34 PDO
Mats Zuccarello ($6,600 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.21 CF60, 2.81 xGF60, 100.76 PDO
Ryan McDonagh – 16-17 Metrics – 53.72 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 100.84 PDO
Secondary Options
Derek Stepan ($5,600 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.93 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 101.55 PDO
Rick Nash ($6,500 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.09 CF60, 2.69 xGF60, 100.91 PDO
Chris Kreider ($5,700 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.31 CF60, 2.9 xGF60, 99.13 PDO
Mika Zibanejad ($5,200 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.23 CF60, 2.88 xGF60, 102.1 PDO
Brady Skjei ($4,300 FD, $3,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.25 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 103.22 PDO
Expected Netminder
Henrik Lundqvist – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 7 GPP
Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.78 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 11, 121.12 CP60
Elite Options
Auston Matthews ($7,500 FD, $7,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.64 CF60, 3.31 xGF60, 99.91 PDO
William Nylander ($5,900 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.32 CF60, 3.27 xGF60, 99.17 PDO
Nazem Kadri ($7,100 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.49 CF60, 3.04 xGF60, 99.76 PDO
Jake Gardiner ($4,500 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.42 CF60, 3.16 xGF60, 102.28 PDO
Secondary Options
James van Riemsdyk ($6,400 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.08 CF60, 3.04 xGF60, 101.26 PDO
Tyler Bozak ($5,300 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.98 CF60, 3.11 xGF60, 101.18 PDO
Josh Leivo ($4,000 FD, $3,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 75.38 CF60, 4.68 xGF60, 104.11 PDO
Nikita Zaitsev ($4,100 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.19 CF60, 2.87 xGF60, 99.8 PDO
Morgan Rielly ($4,200 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.44 CF60, 2.98 xGF60, 97.93 PDO
Expected Netminder
Frederik Andersen – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7 GPP
Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators
| Colorado Avalanche | Nashville Predators | ||||||||
 | Calvin Pickard |  | Pekka Rinne | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 16-39-3 | 28-22-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 1.97 | 3.29 | 14.00% | 78.40% | Team Stats | 2.83 | 2.75 | 19.00% | 82.20% |
Colorado will take the ice tonight with the worst record in the NHL (by far) and having posted a hideous 6-19-2 record since Christmas. They haven’t scored more than two goals in any of their last eight games and, not surprisingly, happen to own an NHL worst 1.97 goals per game this season. Nashville has defeated them in all four prior meetings this season and there’s just no real reason to target anyone from Colorado in cash games tonight. In GPPs, both Matt Duchene and Nathan Mackinnon are always worth a flier. They’re the top two offensive weapons on this team and are more than capable of posting a multi-point game on any given night. In fact, Duchene has caused the Predators plenty of problems this season as he’s scored two goals and added three assists in those four prior meetings. Playing alongside Duchene is talented rookie Mikko Rantanen. He’s now scored goals in three straight games and has tallied eight goals and three assists in his last 13 games. On defense, Erik Johnson is finally nearing a return, but for now it’s still Tyson Barrie that’s the top target. Barrie is locked into 20+ minutes of ice-time per night and runs the point of their top power-play unit.
Nashville was disappointed in their 6-5 overtime loss against Calgary on Tuesday night, but they’ll still drop the puck tonight owning one of the eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. With several teams hot on their tales, it shouldn’t be too difficult for Peter Laviolette to get his team fired up for tonight’s game. The matchup doesn’t get too much better (well, any better, really) as Colorado is just as bad defensively as they are on the offensive end as evidenced by their league worst 3.29 goals against per game. Now, before you get too excited, it is worth noting that their 2.47 xGA/60 is league average and their NHL low 96.95 PDO suggests that they had been rather unlucky this season. Still, Nashville is going to be quite popular tonight and there are several very appealing options to target. Ryan Johansen leads the team with 41 points in 59 games and has torched the Avalanche for two goals and four assists in the four games against Colorado this season. He’ll be joined on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit buy the very dangerous duo of Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg. Arvidsson has been particularly hot lately; posting six goals and four assists in nine games this month and leads Nashville with 181 shots on goal. Meanwhile, former 40-goal scorer James Neal is finally starting to heat up also as he’ll put a four-game point streak on the line tonight. He joins the trio from the top line on that top power-play unit and might just be a bit overlooked. With Colorado also owning an ugly 78.4% penalty kill, stud blue-liners P.K. Subban and Roman Josi both look well worth their big-ticket asking prices this evening. If you can’t afford those two, Ryan Ellis has been playing rather well down the stretch and is seeing a very heavy workload. He sees a healthy dose of playing time on the point of the second power-play unit and has plenty of offensive upside.
Colorado Avalanche
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.35 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -57, 109.7 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Nathan MacKinnon ($5,800 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.25 CF60, 2.34 xGF60, 97.17 PDO
Matt Duchene ($5,600 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.03 CF60, 2.3 xGF60, 96.74 PDO
Mikko Rantanen ($4,700 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.81 CF60, 2.38 xGF60, 97.38 PDO
Tyson Barrie ($4,700 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.85 CF60, 2.07 xGF60, 97.03 PDO
Expected Netminder
Calvin Pickard – My Ratings (out of 10): 2.5 Cash, 4.5 GPP
Nashville Predators
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.59 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 9, 115.16 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan Johansen ($6,100 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.07 CF60, 2.79 xGF60, 99.66 PDO
Viktor Arvidsson ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 69.65 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 100.83 PDO
Filip Forsberg ($7,000 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.52 CF60, 2.78 xGF60, 99.78 PDO
Roman Josi ($6,100 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.49 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 97.9 PDO
P.K. Subban ($6,300 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.36 CF60, 2.95 xGF60, 98.46 PDO
Secondary Options
James Neal ($6,500 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.62 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 99.02 PDO
Mike Fisher ($4,400 FD, $3,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.09 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 99.89 PDO
Ryan Ellis ($4,600 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.27 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 100.41 PDO
Mattias Ekholm ($4,400 FD, $3,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.77 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 101.11 PDO
Expected Netminder
Pekka Rinne – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Arizona Coyotes at Chicago Blackhawks
| Arizona Coyotes | Chicago Blackhawks | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Corey Crawford | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 21-30-7 | 37-18-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.33 | 3.14 | 15.60% | 77.10% | Team Stats | 2.92 | 2.55 | 18.80% | 76.10% |
The Coyotes have been playing much better lately, but they’re still one of the worst teams in the NHL this season and their advanced metrics are still troubling. They have an NHL low 45.63 CF%, have surrendered an NHL high 9.65 SCA60 and their 2.96 xGA60 is also last in the league. Heading into the United Center to battle the Blackhawks is never an easy task and they lost 4-0 in their last visit. Simply put, I will be fading the Coyotes in cash games tonight. In GPPs, however, I do see some potential value. The trio of Max Domi, Martin Hanzal and Radim Vrbata very capable offensively. However, with Jonathan Toews likely being tasked with trying to slow that line down, there are a couple of other sneaky options to consider. Christian Dvorak scored his tenth goal of the season on Monday night and has now racked up six goals and three assists in nine games this month. Meanwhile, both Jordan Martinook and Brendan Perlini will almost certainly see very limited ownership yet both players have posted three goals and three assists this month. On defense, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the top target, but Alex Goligoski is making a case that he’s worth consideration. He’s been hot in February as well, scoring a goal and dishing out six assists.
Chicago picked up a statement win in Minnesota on Tuesday night and should be anxious to finally return home where they own an 18-8-4 record at the Madhouse on Madison. After an up-and-down stretch of play during the middle of the season, they’ve now won seven of their last eight games and it’s starting to become clear that they’ll once again be a very tough out in the Western Conference this spring. I mentioned the Coyotes ugly defensive metrics above, and for those reasons, Chicago will be a highly targeted team this evening. As you probably could have guessed, Patrick Kane leads the team with 60 points in 60 games this season and still headlines the top line alongside Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov. No duo in the NHL has hooked up for points on the same goal more frequently that Panarin and Kane (30 goals) and therefore they’re one of the top stacks on the board. While Kane has been heating up down the stretch, Jonathan Toews has also erupted. The captain was involved in all five goals against the Wild in their last game (three goals and two assists) and has now racked up eight goals and six assists in just eight games since the All-Star break. Richard Panik and Nick Schmaltz both have the luxury of skating alongside Toews at even strength and both see a healthy dose of power-play time as well. If you’re looking for value, they’re both fine options. On defense, things haven’t changed much in recent seasons. Both Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook continue to command very heavy workloads and absorb the lion’s share of the playing time on the power-play. With Arizona owning an ugly 77.1% penalty kill, they’re fine targets in all formats.
Arizona Coyotes
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 45.63 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -22, 116.69 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($5,300 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.05 CF60, 2.14 xGF60, 99.75 PDO
Martin Hanzal ($5,300 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.43 CF60, 2.24 xGF60, 98.12 PDO
Radim Vrbata ($5,700 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.65 CF60, 2.22 xGF60, 98.83 PDO
Max Domi ($4,800 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.86 CF60, 2.09 xGF60, 100.64 PDO
Alex Goligoski ($4,500 FD, $3,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53 CF60, 2.24 xGF60, 100.92 PDO
Expected Netminder
Mike Smith – My Ratings (out of 10): 2 Cash, 5 GPP
Chicago Blackhawks
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.84 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 22, 110.74 CP60
Elite Options
Patrick Kane ($8,200 FD, $7,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.32 CF60, 2.34 xGF60, 102.12 PDO
Jonathan Toews ($7,300 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.95 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 102 PDO
Artemi Panarin ($6,600 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.09 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 103.31 PDO
Duncan Keith ($5,400 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.37 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 101.84 PDO
Secondary Options
Artem Anisimov ($6,100 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.87 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 104 PDO
Marian Hossa ($5,300 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.99 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 100.89 PDO
Richard Panik ($4,300 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.47 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 102.69 PDO
Brent Seabrook ($4,900 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.27 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 100.56 PDO
Expected Netminder
Corey Crawford – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP