NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 3rd
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers – 07:00 PM EST
| Edmonton Oilers | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | Cam Talbot |  | Steve Mason | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 24-34-7 | 29-22-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.37 | 2.95 | 17.00% | 80.40% | Team Stats | 2.50 | 2.61 | 19.20% | 79.30% |
The Edmonton Oilers have been in an unenviable spot over the last few years as they have been trying to rebuild what was once a dynasty back in the early eighties to a team that can just be competitive to qualify for the playoffs. It’s very tough to tell what they have as rookie sensation Connor McDavid has only played in 28 games while registering 31 points and now it seems the injuries are starting to hurt them even more. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been injured since January 18th and defenseman Oscar Klefbom has been on the shelf before Christmas. Now it’s Benoit Pouliot who is the one watching the game from the press box with a shoulder injury. With all of these injuries it may or may not be as bleak as their 24-34-7 record would indicate but what it has done is give one time blue chipper Nail Yakupov at least one more chance to show what talent he has when he was drafted number one overall in the 2012 entry draft. Last game he skated with McDavid and Jordan Eberle who will no doubt draw Sean Couturier in tonight’s game so although they are still a nice line to target, maybe Edmonton’s other line is a safer choice. Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl and Zack Zassian have each collected two points over the last five games and should be able to find some room to skate against a Flyer team that should give up a few goals tonight. Defensively there are probably better choices tonight but if you have to select an Edmonton point man it would either be Andrej Sekera, who plays the point on the power play or Brandon Davidson who has collected three points in the last five games.
Backed by winning their last three games, the Flyers have moved into ninth place in the Eastern conference so it was kind of interesting to see general manager Ron Hextall stand pat at the trade deadline on Monday. Most teams would have tried to grab a few rental players for that big push into the playoffs but Flyer management is sticking to their guns as they believe they have the talent at the younger ranks to be a more competitive team in the near future. With that said the bad news is that Jakub Voracek will be sidelined for at least another three weeks while the team tries to squeak into the playoffs. The top line is in play on home ice tonight as Brayden Schenn is on fire in his last five games with four goals to go along with four assists while Glaude Giroux has five points since his return from injury two days ago. Wayne Simmonds rounds out the top line with 18 shots and five points over the last five games he has played. This line gets the most power play minutes along with second liner Michael Raffl and should be in play tonight against an Edmonton team that has given up over 190 goals so far this season. Shayne Gostisbehere is the selection on the point as he quarterbacks the team’s top power play unit.
Elite Plays
EDM: Connor McDavid
PHL: Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn
Secondary Plays
EDM: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl
PHL: Shayne Gostisbehere, Wayne Simmonds, Michael Raffl
New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins – 07:00 PM EST
| New York Rangers | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Henrik Lundqvist |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 37-20-6 | 32-22-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.81 | 2.49 | 17.40% | 77.80% | Team Stats | 2.66 | 2.52 | 18.20% | 83.50% |
Tonight’s Atlantic conference tilt means a bit more to Pittsburgh than it does to the Rangers as it is the Penguins who are holding on to eighth place in the Eastern conference while the New Yorkers have been playing a steady brand of hockey that has them in second place in the conference. The Rangers went out and traded for Eric Staal from Carolina before the trade deadline and it will be interesting to see if there any lineup changes for tonight’s game. Staal skated on the team’s third line on Monday night but I have a sneaky suspicion that he may move into the top six more quicker than we think. They will certainly be looking for something as they have made the 12 goals they have scored in the last six games hold up for five wins. Chris Kreider and Kevin Hayes are the only two players with three points in the last two games and since they are on the road be careful here as Pittsburgh has been playing pretty well themselves of late. With Jesper Fast not making the trip because of the flu it looks like Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider and Mats Zuccarello will now form the team’s top line with Derick Brassard centering J.T. Miller and Viktor Stalberg. Zuccarello and Brassard not only lead the team in points but play together on both the top line and top power play unit and make decent GPP plats but for a full line approach look for the Brassard line to get a little more room on the ice tonight. Ryan McDonagh and Keith Yandle are the Rangers top defensemen but with 11 other games on the card there are probably better choices at the point tonight.
In what can only be called a down year for the star ladened Pittsburgh Penguins, they still hold on to the eighth playoff spot in the Eastern conference with 72 points. Despite the once vaunted power play only grabbing one goal in the last 11 games, Pittsburgh has still been able to score 17 goals in the last five games. Patric Hornqvist leads the team as he has had a hand in seven of those 17 goals as he has lit the lamp five times in the last five games. Sidney Crosby and Chris Kunitz round out the top line and although make a good play tonight, may not see high ownership because of Henrik Lundquist, the rangers star goaltender. The second line of Evgeni Malkin, Carl Hagelin and Phil Kessel could also make a nice GPP play if the Penguins get the offense into gear. Malkin has two points in the three games he has played since his return from injury and Hagelin may be finding his legs by virtue of scoring two goals and assisting on two others in the last five games. Kris Letang is the play on defense as he is tied for 4th in scoring for defensemen and has grabbed six points over the last five games.
Elite Plays
NYR: None
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang
Secondary Plays
NYR: Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan, Eric Staal, Ryan McDonagh, Keith Yandle
PIT: Chris Kunitz, Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin
Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EST
| Calgary Flames | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 | Jonas Hiller |  | Robin Lehner | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 26-33-4 | 25-31-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.67 | 3.10 | 15.90% | 72.80% | Team Stats | 2.30 | 2.61 | 19.50% | 83.00% |
With the departure of Jiri Hudler the Flames now have just two forwards you can count on to at least try to put the puck in the net. Josh Jooris was moved up to the top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan on Tuesday but it was Joe Colborne who got the opportunity to get the most power play minutes. The Flames lost 2-1 to Boston and tonight Calgary continues their four game road trip in Buffalo tonight. Calgary has lost nine of their last ten games and usually the rule of thumb is, don’t take any Flames in cash games unless they are at home, which they are not. Gaudreau and Monahan have been productive of late and should only be considered as GPP plays tonight as this team is a mess. Gaudreau has hit the scoresheet seven times in the last seven games while Monahan has five points over that same time frame. T.J. Brodie and Mark Giordano have drawn the power play assignments based on the last game and again, should only be used in tournament play. Brodie should have a lower salary across the industry and should be the play to pair with Gaudreau and Monahan.
Editor’s Note
It appears that the Flames have split up Gaudreau and Monahan for tonight’s game. They will more than likely stay on the top power play unit but their value certainly diminishes.
Buffalo is another team that isn’t that great although they are a little better than last year. The injury to Ryan O’ Reilly has put this team on the skids of late as they have only scored four goals in the last four games. If ever there was a game that could end in a 0-0 tie, it may be this one. The top line has been newly formed by head coach Dan Bylsma so it could take a few games before Evander Kane, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart start to gel and create some chemistry together. With the Sabres not scoring many goals lately it’s no wonder this trio has only tallied a combined three points over the last five games. This shouldn’t deter you from using them in tournament play however as they are at home and should be able to find the scoresheet at least once tonight against a tired and bad Calgary team. I would never say do not use a second line in a GPP but the trio of Marcus Foligno, Brian Gionta and Johan Larsson aren’t very good and in a game that should be low in scoring it would seem like a waste of money. Defenseman Zach Bogosian could make a nice one-off play tonight as he has been anchoring the team’s top power play and has managed to grab three goals and two assists over the last five games on a team that has found it tough to find the back of the net.
Elite Plays
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau
BUF: None
Secondary Plays
CGY: Sean Monahan, T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano
BUF: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian
Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins – 07:00 PM EST
| Chicago Blackhawks | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Corey Crawford |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 39-20-5 | 35-23-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.80 | 2.39 | 22.60% | 79.40% | Team Stats | 3.02 | 2.73 | 21.40% | 82.20% |
The Chicago Blackhawks come into this one as one of the best teams in the league so it’s going to take a good effort out of the Boston Bruins to take them down tonight even though Chicago just played in Detroit last night. Marian Hossa looks like he is closer to returning to the lineup but is still a few days away so look for Chicago to use the same line up as they did last night. Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov make up the team’s top line and should be the line that Boston will try to shut down with the Patrice Bergeron line. This should leave all kinds of room on the ice for Jonathan Toews, Andrew Shaw and newcomer Andrew Ladd. The Toews line makes for a decent GPP play while Kane is always a nice one-off play as he leads the NHL in scoring. The problem is always his price tag as sometimes you have to take Anisimov, or the whole line with him to tuck his salary inside the cap. Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook are the plays on defense with Seabrook having the hotter hand by scoring four goals an adding an assist over the last seven games he has played.
Boston came away with a lucky win 2-1 on Tuesday night thanks to a too many men on the ice penalty taken late in the game by the Calgary Flames. Claude Julien was up to his old tricks again as he placed newcomer journeyman Lee Stempniak on the top line with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. The second line of Loui Eriksson, David Krejci and David Pasternak would seem to be pretty solid but in the third period Julien then took Matt Beleskey off the third line and flip-flopped him with Eriksson. It’s anyone’s guess what Julien may do next especially with the Chicago Blackhawks making a visit to TD garden tonight. Pairing Bergeron with Marchand would appear to be safe as both should stay on the top line and have added a combined six goals and five assists to the scoresheet over the team’s last six games. After that it will be up to what Julien does with the second and third lines as to who you should take with who as Krecji and Paternak have tallied four points over the last six games while Eriksson has chipped in with three points over that same time frame. Torey Krug is the play on defense as he now has five assists in his last six games. With the bruins playing Chicago, it may be wise to avoid this while mess and look elsewhere.
Elite Plays
CHI: Patrick Kane
BOS: None
Secondary Plays
CHI: Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Toews, Andrew Ladd, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith
BOS: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug, David Krejci
Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EST
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 37-22-4 | 30-27-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.35 | 17.60% | 83.70% | Team Stats | 2.84 | 3.05 | 18.20% | 74.00% |
The Lightning are one of the hottest teams in the NHL by virtue of winning their last seven games and have not given up more than two goals in any game of the last six. A lot of this can be attributed to moving Ryan Callahan back to the top line as he has responded with four goals and four assists in the last six games. Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn round out the top line with Stamkos getting the lion’s share of the power play minutes which would make him in play, but the second line may even be more lucrative tonight on the road. Tyler Johnson has three goals and two assists in the last six games and centers the second line with Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov. Palat skates on the top power play unit with Stamkos and third liner Jonathan Marchessault but still, the full second line makes a great GPP play. The defense seems to be some sort of trick for the Lightning as it seems whoever they put on the point of the power play, they do nothing and the other fills the scoresheet. Last week I called for Victor Hedman to get some power play time and sure enough, he got it. He has zero points in his last six games, much like Anton Stralman had when he was on the top unit. Now it is Stralman who has racked up four points in the last four games and probably makes the better play here. This may all be irrelevant as Ottawa is a bad team any way you slice it as they have given up over 196 goals this season.
Congratulations to the Ottawa Senators for being the first team to give up 200 goals this season. Calgary and Arizona gave them a run for their money but in the end it was the Senators who broke the ribbon on their way to defensive futility. What a lot of folks do not realize is that Ottawa can light the lamp as their 188 goals was tied for fifth most in the league going into last night’s games. It’s doubtful that anyone can catch team scoring leader Erik Karlsson as he has 68 points in 64 games while Mark Stone is a distant second with 50 points in 62 games. Stone has been very productive over the last four games by scoring two goals and registering seven points. While line mates Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Zack Smith do not see the top power play minutes that Stone does, they have found the scoresheet six and four times respectively over the last four games. Mika Zibanejad plays on both the top line and top power play unit along with Mike Hoffman and both make decent GPP’s plays tonight as Zibanejad has netted three goals to go along with two assists while Hoffman has collected three points in the last four games. Again, Ottawa should score some goals as they always do but tonight may be a little tougher as Tampa goalie Ben Bishop can only look on the Ottawa bench and thank his lucky stars that they traded him to the Lightning back on April 3rd 2013.
Elite Plays
TB: Steven Stamkos
OTT: Erik Karlsson
Secondary Plays
TB: Ryan Callahan, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman
OTT: Mike Hoffman, Mika Zibanejad, Mark Stone, Jean-Gabriel Pageau