NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, December 1st

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-12-03 02:33:51

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils – 07:00 PM EST

Colorado Avalanche					New Jersey Devils
			Semyon Varlamov					Cory Schneider
			Record					Record
			9-13-1					12-9-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.96	3.04	20.40%	78.40%	Team Stats	2.35	2.39	20.70%	84.10%

Colorado fell apart down the stretch last night to ultimately fall 5-3 against the New York Islanders and will make the short trip to New Jersey for tonight’s battle against the somewhat overachieving Devils. It’s been a rough start to the season for Patrick Roy and the Avalanche, but they’re at least pretty easy to break down from a fantasy standpoint. Their top line of Nathan Mackinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene can be electric and they’re really the only forwards you’ll need to consider from this team (sorry Jarome Iginla). On defense, both Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie log big minutes with those three on the team’s #1 power-play unit making them both strong plays where their price is right. The Devils have been solid defensively and Cory Schneider is terrific in net, so don’t get too carried away here.

The Devils aren’t an overly appealing team to target by fantasy standards, but a home matchup against the Avalanche definitely makes them a bit more attractive. The Avalanche fell last night 5-3 in New York and happen to be the worst team in the league by Corsi Standards, so even the slow paced Devils find themselves in play tonight. Michael Cammalleri isn’t the most thrilling option on the board, but the veteran leads New Jersey with 23 points in 23 games. Adam Henrique joins him on the top line and the former 25 goal scorer has caught fire recently, picking up points in four straight games while scoring three goals and dishing out a pair of assists in the process. The third wheel of the top line, Lee Stempniak, is off to a fine offensive start as well with 5 goals and 13 assists in 23 games. Travis Zajac, Patrik Elias and Kyle Palmieri form a very decent looking secondary scoring line on paper, but we’ve yet to see much offensive production from them this season. The Devils defense leaves a bit to be desired from a fantasy standpoint, but Damon Severson is still dirt cheap on several sites and holds the reigns as the point-man on the top power-play unit, making him an acceptable value play.

Elite Plays

COL: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan Mackinnon, Matt Duchene
NJD: Mike Cammalleri, Adam Henrique

Secondary Plays

COL: Jarome Iginla, Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin
NJD: Lee Stempniak, Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac, Patrik Elias, Damon Severson

Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EST

Philadelphia Flyers					Ottawa Senators
			Steve Mason					Craig Anderson
			Record					Record
			9-10-5					12-6-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	1.83	2.67	16.40%	80.70%	Team Stats	3.17	2.83	21.40%	78.80%

The Flyers have picked up back-to-back impressive victories, but still head to Ottawa with just a 9-10-5 record after 24 games. However, they own a league low 1.83 goals/game this season and were shutout by this Senators’ team 4-0 just last week. With that said, Ottawa has allowed a league high 34.1 SOG/G and rate out as one of the worst puck possession teams in the league this season (46.4 CF%), so there’s at least some reason for optimism from the Flyers. Not surprisingly, Claude Giroux leads the way with 19 points and the sniper has looked very dangerous lately, scoring a pair of goals and dishing out four assists over the last four games. With Jakub Voracek still sitting with just one goal on the season and buried away on the team’s third forward line, Giroux is the only forward on my cash game radar in this one. Defensively, the Mark Streit injury continues to give Shayne Gostisbehere plenty of run on the point of Philadelphia’s top power-play unit and that makes him an intriguing value play.

The Senators saw their four-game winning streak come to an end on Saturday in Arizona, but should be excited to get return home after a tough three game road trip. Ottawa has averaged 4.40 goals per game over their last five games and should benefit from an up-tempo game tonight as the Flyers rank as the second fastest paced team in the NHL this season (112.9 CP60). While Erik Karlsson leads the team with 26 points and is locked in as one of the best defensive options on the board, the Senators’ top forward line of Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan needs to be on your radar as well. All three players have already cracked the 20 point barrier on the young season and see a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage. Mark Stone headlines the team’s second forward unit and, after tallying 38 points in 36 games after the all-star break last season, he’s kept things rolling with 21 points in 21 games during the 2015-16 season.

Elite Plays

PHI: Claude Giroux
OTT: Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson

Secondary Plays

PHI: Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere
OTT: Mark Stone, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Wideman

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings – 07:30 PM EST

Buffalo Sabres					Detroit Red Wings
			Robin Lehner					Jimmy Howard
			Record					Record
			10-12-2					12-8-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.21	2.54	21.30%	75.40%	Team Stats	2.33	2.50	15.80%	85.00%

After dropping six straight games heading into the weekend, Buffalo bounced back with back-to-back wins over Nashville and Carolina. They’re no longer the doormat of the Eastern Conference, but they’ve also managed to score just 2.21 goals per game this season and there’s just not a ton to love from a fantasy perspective. Ryan O’Reilly leads the way with 19 points through 24 games and centers a very capable first line alongside Evander Kane and last season’s #2 overall draft pick Sam Reinhart. Phenom Jack Eichel is the focal point of the team’s second line and has two proven veterans in Matt Moulson and Brian Gionta on his side. However, with Petr Mrazek owning an impressive .932 SV% on the season, it’s pretty easy to fade this Buffalo team all together in cash games tonight.

The Sabres are a much more competitive team this season than we’ve grown accustomed to, and while Detroit may be struggling a bit offensively (just 2.33 goals per game), I’ll still want to target Buffalo’s atrocious 75.4% penalty kill. With that in mind, the top forward line of Dylan Larkin, Henrik Zetterberg and Justin Abdelkader have not only been a force at even strength this season, but all three see a healthy dose of playing time on the power-play and are all very solid options (with Abdelkader and Larkin still well underpriced on several sites). Alternatively, guys like Pavel Datsyuk, Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar have all proven to be very capable offensively and have also earned their spots on sprinkled throughout the Detroit power-play. On defense, both Mike Green and Niklas Kronwall soak up nearly all of the playing time as the point-men on the power-play and should not be overlooked as rock solid options on the blue-line.

Elite Plays

BUF: None
DET: Henrik Zetterberg, Dylan Larkin, Pavel Datsyuk, Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green

Secondary Plays

BUF: Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart, Cody Franson, Rasmus Ristolainen
DET: Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Tatar, Niklas Kronwall

Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens – 07:30 PM EST

Columbus Blue Jackets					Montreal Canadiens
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Mike Condon
			Record					Record
			10-15-0
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.40	3.04	17.90%	81.10%	Team Stats	3.48	2.20	23.90%	86.20%

Columbus enters tonight’s game in the cellar of the Metropolitan Division, and it’s tough to get too excited about their outlook tonight as they visit the Bell Centre to battle the Atlantic Division leading Canadiens. While the Carey Price injury is a serious blow to Montreal, Mike Condon has filled in admirably and now owns a rock solid 2.19 GAA in his 13 starts. Montreal swept the three game season series between these two teams last year and there’s no reason to look towards Columbus in your cash games tonight with 19 other teams to choose from. The Boone Jenner, Ryan Johansen and Nick Foligno line looked dangerous on Saturday in St. Louis and with Johansen now scoring goals in four of the last five games, they all have some GPP appeal.

The Canadiens fell 3-2 in overtime against the Devils on Saturday and are dealing with a handful of injuries, but this is still one of the best teams in the NHL and their matchup tonight at home against Columbus is an advantageous one. Not only did Montreal dominate in their three meetings last season, but Columbus has allowed an ugly 3.04 goals per game this season. Max Pacioretty is the undoubted leader of this offense and finds himself tied with his linemate Tomas Plekanec for the team scoring lead with 24 points. While their usual partner on the top line Brendan Gallagher will be out of commission for several weeks, that has opener the door for Devante Smith-Pelly to hop onto the top scoring line and instantly makes him a very solid value play across the industry. Both P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov continue to put up fantastic offensive numbers this season on the blue-line, and with their roles as point-men on the #1 power-play locked in, there’s no reason to see them slowing down anytime soon. Those two combined for three goals and six assists against the Blue-Jackets in their three meetings last season and are top-tier defensive options tonight.

Elite Plays

CBJ: None
MON: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov

Secondary Plays

CBJ: Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Boone Jenner
MON: Devante Smith-Pelly, Alex Galchenyuk, David Desharnais, Jeff Petry

Arizona Coyotes at Nashville Predators – 08:00 PM EST

Arizona Coyotes					Nashville Predators
			Mike Smith					Pekka Rinne
			Record					Record
			13-9-1					12-7-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.83	2.83	14.90%	81.10%	Team Stats	2.48	2.57	17.70%	77.80%

The Coyotes enter tonight’s game in Nashville having won three straight games and remain one of the biggest surprises of the early part of the 2015-16 season. While they’ve posted a very solid 7-4-0 record during the month of November, a quick look at their box score from their 4-3 win in Ottawa on Saturday raises a bit of a red flag as they were outshot 38-19 by the Senators. Arizona’s 47.5 CF% ranks them as the fifth worst puck possession team in the NHL this season and the Nashville Predators won all three games between these two teams last season. Former first round pick Max Domi has thrown his name into the Calder Trophy race this season with 8 goals and 12 assists in 23 games and he joins fellow youngster Anthony Duclair and veterans Martin Hanzal and Mikkel Boedker as the main offensive weapons here. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the true-fantasy superstar in this lineup, but with the Nashville Predators having a reputation for being very disruptive in the neutral zone and very physical down-low, I’ll be limiting my exposure to the Coyotes in this one.

The Predators have lost five of their last six games while squandering several very appealing matchups in the process, so it’s difficult to get too bullish with them today. However, they have been much more effective at the Bridgestone Arena this season (7-2-2) and, at least on paper, are a far superior hockey club than the Arizona Coyotes. Nashville is very deep on the blue-line, with Shea Weber and Roman Josi both elite options on the blue-line this evening with both Seth Jones and Ryan Ellis fine options that can be found at very reasonable asking price. Their defense may be the key to their success, but they also benefit from two very balanced scoring lines. Up front, James Neal and Filip Forsberg surround Mike Ribiero on the team’s most dangerous forward line with Mike Fisher, Colin Wilson and Craig Smith fine secondary options.

Elite Plays

ARI: None
NSH: Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Roman Josi, Shea Weber

Secondary Plays

ARI: Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Martin Hanzal, Mikkel Boedker, Oliver Ekman-Larsson
NSH: Mike Ribeiro, Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, Seth Jones, Ryan Ellis

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