The Relief Brief: Friday, July 29th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-07-30 03:19:56

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
Including a new highlight, which features my top five bullpen situations to attack (on full slates only).

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Friday night features a full 14 game slate. While I won’t break down all 28 bullpen situations, we will begin with the highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

The table below shows a lot of zeros in the Pitches1 column because of team off days and good starting pitcher performances yesterday. A few exceptions worth monitoring (that I won’t specifically cover in this section) are the Milwaukee Brewers and the Minnesota Twins.

Matt Boyd has now started eight games at the major league level this season and has gone for six or more innings twice in those starts, while going for less than five innings in half of them. Tonight, he’ll face the Astros in Detroit. Houston has a below average wOBA and an above average K% against lefties on the season, but they also have one of the highest BB% against lefties this season. Boyd’s struggles have come against righties, and Houston has several right-handed bats that feast on average lefties. Expect to see plenty of the average to below average Tigers bullpen in this game.

Mike Leake has given up 71 hits in his last nine starts. That’s an average of eight hits per start. Of those 71 hits, only five of them have been the long ball. Also worth noting is that Leake has exceeded 100 pitches only three times in his 20 starts this season. We should see a healthy amount of the Cardinals bullpen in this one. Closer Seung-Hwan Oh has worked on three consecutive days.

Jose Urena is something of an enigma. His career splits are well below average (small sample size), but his 2016 splits (smaller sample size) are better, particularly against righties. He’s done a good job of limiting hard contact in his two starts this season, but he hasn’t gone deep into either start and we shouldn’t expect him to go deep in this one either. The Marlins bullpen worked more than expected last night after J-Fern (it’s catching on) struggled his way through five innings. Mike Dunn, Fernando Rodney and Kyle Barraclough all worked a decent amount yesterday.

Vincent Velasquez has pitched well more often than not on the season, but he has only exceeded six innings in two of his 17 starts. He is a strikeout pitcher (10.11 K/9) and thus, his pitch count is often driven up earlier than is desirable. Tonight he faces the Braves in Atlanta. The Braves have the lowest wOBA vs righties in the league and they have a low K% against righties. That should all add up to a good outing form Velasquez. His strikeout numbers should be down slightly, but that may allow him to go deeper into this game. The bullpen could use the rest as three different relievers threw double-digits yesterday.

Steven Brault will get his second career start tonight against the Brewers in Milwaukee. In ten AAA starts in 2016, Brault averaged five innings per start. In his one major league start, Brault went four innings. Brault is a strikeout pitcher with his share of control issues. The Pirates bullpen is a well below average unit in terms of SIERA and strikeout ability, and Miller Park (top rated HR ballpark factor) is not as forgiving as PNC Park.

Zack Godley has ten major league starts in his young career and has never exceeded the six-inning mark, nor has he ever thrown more than 94 pitches in any single game. The Los Angeles Dodgers may not seem that attractive of an offense, but they do have the sixth best overall wOBA during the last 14 days. Godley can’t be expected to go deep into this game, and he’ll have one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him.

Max Scherzer can safely be considered an elite pitcher. The man has gone for six or more innings in 19 of his 21 starts. He should be able to go out and do more of the same in the pitcher friendly environment in San Francisco. The Washington bullpen is worth paying attention to, however. Jonathan Papelbon got the first chance at a save last night, but was quickly given the hook after allowing a walk, a hit and an earned run. Shawn Kelley picked up the eventual save. This bullpen is still sorting things out, and Max might be given an even longer leash that usual in hopes of sparing the ‘pen for another day.

Jeff Samardzija has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in seven of his last ten outings. Six of those outings have lasted six innings or less. George Kontos and Albert Suarez threw over 35 pitches last night and will most likely not be available tonight. This is a Giants bullpen that has blown more saves than 28 other teams.

Brandon Finnegan has had some bright moments this season, but none have been recent. In fact, Finnegan has failed to throw more than five innings in any of his last four starts, while surrendering ten dongs during that span! His 39.8% hard contact rating will most likely cost him again tonight as he faces the Padres (fourth highest team wOBA against lefties). Oh yeah, and the Reds bullpen is by far the worst in baseball.

Tim Lincecum a.k.a. “The Freak “has been freakishly bad in 2016. I legitimately like watching him pitch because of his unorthodox style and delivery, but it hasn’t worked out for him or for the Angels this season. Through seven starts, he has gone for six innings just once, while failing to reach five innings in four of those seven. There’s a chance that the Red Sox will be embarrassingly bad as they were against Weaver last night, but I sort of doubt it. The Angels ‘pen has the fourth worst SIERA in baseball.

My Top 5 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Detroit Tigers

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

There is a boatload of trade talks going on at the moment, but very little has been dealt in the way of healthy relievers. I will do my best to update you on each situation as they unfold.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Jeff Samardzija does not have a single game in 2016 with double-digit strikeouts.

Tim Lincecum has an xFIP of 7.37 against righties this season. LIncecum’s career xFIP against righties sits at 3.44. Small sample size, but interesting.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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