The Relief Brief: Monday, September 26th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-27 03:24:34

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Monday night features a ten game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Chad Kuhl has exceeded six innings in just one of his 12 major league starts this season, (a 6.1 inning outing) though he has managed to reach the six-inning mark on seven occasions. Kuhl has pitched reasonably well against good competition, but has a combined 7.1 innings and seven earned runs in two starts against the Cubs. I don’t expect great results from Kuhl tonight, which should lead to some heavy ‘pen work for the Pirates. As a bullpen, the Pirates have pitched admirably over the last 30 days with a top 10 SIERA over that stretch; however, they’ve also allowed a HR/9 rate of 1.34 (third most).

Matt Garza has given up eight hits in consecutive (short) outings and could be in for more of the same tonight against the Rangers in Arlington. Garza has reached six innings in seven of his 18 starts this season, and I genuinely would be surprised if tonight makes number eight. This article is all about trying to make educated predictions on bullpen expectations. As is the case with most DFS scenarios, we are trying to figure out what is the most likely scenario. To me, the most likely scenario for Garza is a sub-six inning outing on the road against a solid lineup. If we are correct in that assessment, we can expect to see a good amount of the Brewers bullpen, and they happen to own the eighth worst SIERA in baseball over the course of the season and are in the bottom third in strikeouts. This should be a good spot to target.

Yes, I’m probably going to write up Tim Adleman and his bullpen every time he takes the hill, so get used to it. Or don’t get used to it, because this is probably his second to last start of the season. Anyway, Adleman is a great example of a pitcher who shouldn’t be expected to work deep into any of his remaining outings. In 11 starts this season, he has pitched fewer than six innings on eight occasions. We know that the Reds bullpen is bad, but it’s been a while since we pointed out just how bad they are. Here’s some fun numbers – 1.55 HR/9, 4.42 SIERA, 11.4 BB%, 20.2 K%, 1.49 WHIP, 4.80 xFIP, 5.01 ERA, . All of those numbers are either first, second or third worst in baseball.

Seven of “(player-popup)Archie Bradley”:/players/archie-bradley-16109’s last ten starts have gone for 5.1 innings or less. Let’s not waste much time on Archie. This is another spot where the most likely scenario is a short outing from the starter. On to the bullpen – the Diamondbacks ‘pen is the only unit that can rival the Reds for the title of “worst bullpen in baseball.” More number fun – 4.25 SIERA, 4.53 xFIP, 5.02 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 10.6 BB%, 20.5 K%, 1.19 HR/9. Get it? They’re bad. Good.

James Shields gave up six earned runs to the Phillies in his last outing. Shall I go on? Ok, I will. In seven of his last ten starts, Shields has given up at least four earned runs. In half of those starts, Shields has gone five innings or fewer, and has not exceeded six innings. There’s more! The White Sox bullpen owns the fourth worst SIERA in baseball this season. The White Sox ‘pen is fresh, though they’re likely to get in some work tonight.

Martin Perez continues to eat up unimpressive innings. What does that even mean? In ten of his last 11 starts, Perez has gone at least six innings, but has also sported a 4.28 ERA and a 4.53 xFIP over that same stretch. Expect Perez to eat up some decent innings tonight on his way to another underwhelming six to seven innings. The Rangers ‘pen has been better lately, but still own the sixth worst SIERA in baseball this season.

Buck Farmer is probably a super manly guy, based off of his name. He’s not a great pitcher, however. Buck has been up and down between the Majors and AAA this season and has primarily been used in relief in the Majors. Again, what is the most likely outcome? The Tigers are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect Buck to have a short leash tonight. The Tigers bullpen has been perfectly average this season in most statistical categories, and while Buck is likely susceptible, this may be a spot where the ‘pen could help neutralize the offensive threat of the Indians just a bit more than it would appear. I think there are better spots to attack tonight.

The tragic loss of Jose Fernandez is both cruel and heartbreaking. Rarely will you see any individual with such passion and charisma on the mound, at the plate, in the dugout or in every day life. That is exactly what we observed in the man whom we affectionately dubbed “J-Fern” here in this article. The more we discover about Jose the 15 year old defector and Jose the soon-to-be father makes him all the more likeable. The loss of a true ace reaches beyond DFS, beyond baseball, and far beyond sports in general – this tragedy serves as a harsh reminder that our moments and our days are fleeting and far from guaranteed. Along with Jose’s family, keep the families of his two friends (who also lost their lives) in your thoughts and prayers throughout the coming days and weeks. Pirates Manager, Clint Hurdle put it beautifully; “It’s just sad. It’s so horribly sad on so many different levels that there’ll be no more of that, there’ll be no more of him, there’ll be no more of that emotion on the mound, that skill-set, that human being, that young man with such a gift, such a great smile. I’ve been trying to live that life for a while now; I wasn’t always in that place. It just makes all the more sense when things like this happen. Be where your feet are. Enjoy the moment. There’ll be a day when there won’t be another day.” Rest in peace.

Favorite bullpens to pick on today.

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Pittsburgh Pirates

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

No bullpen personnel news.

3. Other Notes And Insights

With baseball season winding down, I just wanted to thank all of you for reading! I hope this article has helped you over the last two months of the season. As always, I am happy to hear your thoughts, ideas and input for this article.

Follow me on Twitter @collinman005 for occasional humor and advice.

Legend