The Relief Brief: Thursday, August 4th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-05 01:36:29

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Thursday features a 12 game split-slate. We will cover games from the late portion of the slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Ricky Nolasco will make his first start for the Angels tonight. In his 21 starts on the season, Nolasco has thrown fewer than five innings only twice. He has certainly given up his share of runs, but he manages to chew up innings. The Angels bullpen is working in some new pieces and may not have clearly established roles (or established pitchers in those roles). The Angels bullpen has been one of the worst units on the season, but actually had a strong month of July. Nolasco should be able work his way through six innings or so before handing it over to a mix and match group of relievers.

Wade Miley shut down the Cubs in his last start, and swiftly got traded out of Seattle to his new team in Baltimore. Miley will also (like Nolasco and Hector Santiago) make his first start for his new team tonight. Miley has been up and down this season, and will find himself in a tricky spot here against the Rangers. The Orioles bullpen has been well below average over the course of the season, and the Rangers have the bats to capitalize if Miley should struggle. Also, it is interesting to note that Miley has exceeded 100 pitches only twice this season.

Ryan Vogelsong (Vogeldong?) will make his third start of the season tonight, and he will do so against the Braves. The Braves have a slightly improved lineup with the addition of Matt Kemp, but it is still a below average attack. Vogelsong has 12 appearances on the season (two starts) and has only exceeded two innings on one occasion. The Pirates bullpen can be expected to work in this game. This unit has struggled for most of the season, and just traded away their most valuable relief arm (Mark Melancon). The Braves may be in a spot to put up some more runs than usual, but they are still the Braves, so proceed with caution (or, at least without too much excitement).

Tyrell Jenkins has four big league starts on the season, and drew some fame for winning his first game in his last start (not so much for winning, but more for his post-game interview…). Jenkins has been getting hit hard overall, and the Pirates could continue the trend tonight. The Braves bullpen has consistently been among the worst in baseball all season long, and they can be expected to work in this game as Jenkins has exceeded 100 pitches only once all season long.

Mike Fiers has 19 starts this season and has gone for five or fewer innings in more than a third of those starts. Fiers has managed to throw more than six innings only five times on the season, so we can safely anticipate a healthy amount of the Astros bullpen. Fiers has been hit hard by righties (39.1%), which may not bode well for him against this righty heavy lineup in Toronto. The Astros bullpen is elite however, and will be reasonably well rested. Take your Blue Jays bats against Fiers if you want to, but don’t expect much damage once he comes out of the game.

Tyler Chatwood represents yet another Rockies pitcher with a high GB%. Unfortunately, he struggles mightily with control issues. In his 19 starts this season, he has walked three or more batters on 11 occasions (including 12 walks in his last 12 innings). He has only allowed eight dongs over 110.2 innings, but the control issues are forcing him out of games earlier than is desirable. Tyler Anderson spun a gem last night and was able to provide the bullpen with some rest. The Rockies ‘pen continues to pitch poorly overall (21st in SIERA over the last 30 days), but they will be fresh for this one.

Ariel Miranda was the other part of the Wade Miley trade, and will slide right into Miley’s spot in the Mariners rotation. Miranda hasn’t been especially impressive in the minor leagues this season, sporting an ERA nearing 4 (quite high in the minor leagues), but he has shown the ability to work deep into games, going for six or more innings in about half of his minor league starts. This seems like a spot where the Mariners bullpen may have to take over relatively early (sixth inning or so), but this is a bullpen that has one of the best strikeout rates in the league and does exceptionally well limiting hard contact (28.4% combined).

Drew Pomeranz hasn’t quite won the hearts of Red Sox nation yet (three starts – five earned runs, two earned runs, five earned runs, four total dongs). The Mariners are below average against lefties on the season (.316 wOBA). The Red Sox bullpen should be fresh, thanks to long outings from Price and Porcello in the last two games in Seattle.

My Top Bullpen 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Atlanta Braves
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Baltimore Orioles

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Phillies recalled lefty Elvis Araujo from AAA. Araujo has struggled in the big leagues this season and will be used primarily as a means to an end.

Ryan Merritt was recalled from AAA to join the Indians. Merritt should be a long relief options for the badly fatigued (Thanks Twins) Cleveland bullpen. Shawn Armstrong was also recalled, and should provide a similar type of arm for the bullpen.

The Dodgers placed both Adam Liberatore and Louis Coleman on the 15-day DL. Those are both big blows to the LAD bullpen. Josh Fields was recalled from AAA. Fields has impressive numbers in the lower levels, and may be able to provide the Dodgers with a steady option out of the bullpen in the wake of some key injuries.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Over the last three days, the Cleveland Indians starters have a combined 8.1 innings pitched, while the bullpen has thrown 18.2 innings. They have combined to surrender 35 runs over those three games. The Twins are en fuego.

Clay Buchholz is still looking for his time machine, and The Indians are still looking for a starter to last more than four innings.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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