MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, August 16th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays – Snell has been very good for the Rays this season. The young southpaw has kept both lefties (.298 wOBA) and righties (.309 wOBA) in check, while producing a solid strikeout rate (23.1%). The San Diego Padres have hit left-handed pitching well this season, but two of their biggest lefty threats this season were traded away (Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton). Also worth noting, the Padres continue to whiff a ton, striking out over 24% of the time against southpaws, which is the third-most in Major League Baseball. Snell is very reasonably priced across the industry and I love his potential in this plus matchup.
Michael Pineda, New York Yankees – Pineda continues to rack up the strikeouts (26.8%), but he is also getting hit fairly hard when batters make contact against him (32.4% hard-hit rate), which is why he is better suited for GPPs tonight (that and the fact that he is facing the Toronto Blue Jays, who happen to be a pretty good offense). However, the Blue Jays did whiff 13 times last night and they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball versus right-handed pitching. Not to mention, they are a banged up offense, missing both Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar. Pineda is a risky play, but the upside is there, and we should see a very low ownership on him in tournaments.
Other Pitchers to Target – Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Danny Duffy, Marco Estrada, Jason Hammel, Kenta Maeda
CATCHER
Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs – Home runs (21) and hard contact (37.8% hard-hit rate) have been the theme for Brewers’ starter Chase Anderson in 2016. I am certainly not afraid to pick on Anderson with hitters from either side of the plate, but righties have done some serious damage to him this season (.411 wOBA, 40.8% hard-hit rate). Contreras and the Cubs’ offense should have a big game tonight.
Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees – The matchup is not ideal with Marco Estrada having a terrific season, but he does struggle with the long-ball on occasion. Sanchez has some big time pop in his bat and the ball park certainly does not hurt matters. If you are looking for a value play with home run upside, Sanchez fits the bill.
Other Catchers to Target – Jonathan Lucroy, Wilson Ramos, Evan Gattis, Matt Wieters, Stephen Vogt, Derek Norris
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox – Yovani Gallardo is an average pitcher at best, posting a 5.17 ERA on the season. The Baltimore Orioles’ righty has been hit hard by lefties (.359 wOBA) and righties (.345 wOBA) alike this season and I expect more of the same tonight. The Boston Red Sox have the best offense in baseball thanks in large part to David Ortiz. Big Papi is a monster against righties (.439 wOBA), and the top GPP option at first base this evening.
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres – As much as I like Blake Snell tonight, it is hard to ignore what Wil Myers has done against left-handed pitching in 2016 (.333 BA, .429 wOBA, 40.7% hard-hit rate). If you are looking for a high-upside bat that will be relatively unused tonight, Myers is your guy.
Other First Basemen to Target – Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, Freddie Freeman, Chris Davis, Adam Lind
SECOND BASE
Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins – Dee Gordon is a multi-hit, run scoring machine. Oh, and aside from Billy Hamilton, he is the best thief in the game. The Marlins’ two-bagger has produced multi-hit efforts in five of his last 10 contests, while adding 12 runs and six stolen bases. On a night where the second base position is loaded, Gordon could get overlooked.
Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins – Joel De La Cruz is a Minor League journeyman. The 27-year-old Dominican was not good in the Minors, posting a career ERA over 4.00. It is a small sample size, but the Braves’ right-hander has not looked very good at the Major League level either. Brian Dozier has been on a tear of late (homers in three straight games and six extra base hits in his last five contests), and there is no reason to think De La Cruz or that bad Atlanta Braves bullpen will slow him down tonight.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, Dee Gordon, Logan Forsythe, Jonathan Schoop
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies – You will have to pay a pretty penny to get him, but I think you want to have at least some exposure to the Rockies’ third baseman this evening. Gio Gonzalez has pitched pretty well this season, but he is still susceptible to the home run ball, especially versus righties. Arenado will be popular tonight, but his numbers are sick against southpaws at home (.361 BA, .485 wOBA). Fade him at your own risk.
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners – Seager is swinging a hot stick, with hits in seven of his last eight contests, including four of the multi-hit variety. Jhoulys Chacin was hammered in his last outing (1.1 IP, 7 ER) and he is not having a very good season (5.84 ERA). Lefties have given Chacin fits all year long (.355 wOBA, 36.8% hard-hit rate) and I think we see more of the same tonight. Seager has been a beast against right-handed pitching again this season (.407 wOBA) and I think he flies under the radar in GPPs.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Anthony Rendon, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros – Correa is currently riding a 10-game hitting streak. During this hot stretch, the Astros’ young phenom has racked up 12 hits, including four doubles, three home runs and 14 runs batted in. Despite facing a lefty, I get the feeling that the Houston Astros bats won’t be all that popular in large field tournaments.
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals – Sure it seems a little chalky, but Turner is on fire right now and he could very well see five at-bats tonight leading off for the Washington Nationals. Chad Bettis continues to struggle for the Colorado Rockies, owning a 5.27 ERA on the season and he has not pitched well in Coors Field (5.37 ERA, .315 BAA). The Rockies’ right-hander has displayed reverse splits so far in his young career (.351 wOBA, 35.5% hard-hit rate), so we are best to attack him with right-handed hitters. Giddy up!
Other Shortstops to Target – Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Orlando Arcia, Addison Russell, J.J. Hardy, Danny Espinosa
OUTFIELDERS
Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles – Eduardo Rodriguez has settled down recently, but this is still a pitcher we can attack with right-handed batters. The Red Sox lefty owns a 5.43 ERA on the year and he has allowed 12 home runs in just over 49 innings pitched to right-handed batters. Both Trumbo and Jones have double-dong potential in this one.
Texas Rangers Outfield – Andrew Triggs posted solid Minor League numbers, but he still lacks prospect status. As a matter of fact, he projects as a back of the rotation arm, and this means he is in a tough spot tonight versus a deep and potent Texas Rangers lineup. With a funky three-quarters delivery, he may keep right-hander hitters in check, but we can attack him with lefties. The entire Rangers outfield is once again in play tonight.
Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays – Dickerson has not had the season many of us expected. Despite that though, he is still a high upside play anytime he faces a weak right-handed pitcher. Edwin Jackson is another journeyman pitcher I love picking on. The 32-year-old veteran has always had a great arm, but he was never able to turn that into success at the Major League level (.344 wOBA VS LHB). Because of his lackluster season, we should get Dickerson and his multi-homer upside at a very low ownership tonight.
Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins – Anthony DeSclafani has been one of the few bright spots for the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff this season. The Reds’ young right-hander has been solid, but he is still vulnerable to hitters from the left side of the plate (.379 wOBA). I should also mention that he is backed up by an improved, but still weak Reds bullpen. Yelich lacks multi-homer upside, so he is usually ignored in large field tournaments. With a huge ball park boost and hitting third in the order, he should have himself a very productive game.
Other Outfielders to Target – Coors Field, Mookie Betts, Ian Desmond, Stephen Piscotty, Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, George Springer, Rajai Davis, J.D. Martinez