MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, July 26th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays – Archer’s roller coaster season continues, he was rocked in two of his last four outings, while racking up double-digit strikeouts in the other two. In his last start, he struck out 11 Rockies in Coors Field, showing off his massive potential. Archer is a tough pitcher to trust these days, but he is certainly worth the roll of the dice in large field tournaments, thanks to his elite upside.
Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles – Tillman is having a superb season thus far for the Baltimore Orioles and he has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball this year. Tillman has been dealing of late, throwing seven innings, while only allowing just one earned run in for consecutive starts. The Colorado Rockies are an overrated offense on the road, ranking 28th in wOBA, while striking out the fifth-most in baseball. I think we see Tillman pitch seven strong innings again tonight for the fifth consecutive time, while racking up a strikeout per inning. With his moderate price across the industry, that will work just fine in GPPs.
Bud Norris, Los Angeles Dodgers – After an ugly start to the season, Bud Norris has actually pitched quite well. He has also dominated right-handed hitters this season, which is important because the Tampa Bay Rays are predominately right-handed. Tampa Bay has been awful against right-handed pitching this year, ranking 25th in wOBA, while striking out at a 24.2% clip, which is the third-most in Major League Baseball. The Rays will also lose their DH tonight with this game being played in Dodger Stadium, making this matchup even more appealing for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ right-hander. Dollar for dollar, Norris is my top tournament option.
Other Pitchers to Target – Danny Salazar, Francisco Liriano, Steven Wright, Jerad Eickhoff
CATCHER
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants – Hitters from the right side of the plate have beat Cincinnati Reds lefty Cody Reed like a rented mule this season (.421 wOBA, 43.2% hard-hit rate). By now you should know the drill. Posey is a notorious lefty-killer and you should have at least some exposure to him tonight in this plus matchup.
Stephen Vogt, Oakland A’s – Gas Can Nick Martinez will be on the bump tonight in very hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Martinez continues to get crushed my Major League hitters, especially those who swing from the left side of the plate (.464 wOBA), and I think we see more of the same this evening. Vogt has big upside in this one
Other Catchers to Target – Jonathan Lucroy, Welington Castillo, Evan Gattis, Willson Contreras, Russell Martin
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox – This is a no brainer. We have the game’s best hitter versus right-handed pitching (.524 wOBA at home VS RHP) facing a Gas Can at Fenway Park tonight. Fade him at your own risk.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds – Votto is hitting a cool .397 in the month of July, thanks in large part to his current 10-game hitting streak. Matt Cain has been awful in 2016 (5.88 ERA, .316 BAA) and left-handed batters are doing some serious damage against him (.401 wOBA). With this game being played on the West Coast in the best pitching park in baseball, we can expect very low ownership on Joey Votto.
Other First Basemen to Target – Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Justin Smoak
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros – CC Sabathia has been so good this season against right-handed hitters that I do not see a need to stack against him tonight. However, I will have exposure to Jose Altuve. The Houston Astros’ second baseman is having an M.V.P. season and he continues to annihilate southpaws (.372 BA, .453 wOBA).
Jean Segura, Arizona Diamondbacks – Matt Garza is having his worst season to date (5.94 ERA, .333 BAA) as he continues to decline. Righties have punished Garza in 2016 (.388 wOBA 35.9% hard-hit rate VS RHB), and I do not think he lasts long in this game. Segura has multi-hit/run/SB upside in this prime matchup.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, Brian Dozier, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Schoop, Jurickson Profar
THIRD BASE
Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks – I spoke earlier about “(player-popup)Matt Garza”:/players/matt-garza-10919’s struggles this year (5.94 ERA, .333 BAA) and lefties are smashing him as well (.368 wOBA, 42.3% hard-hit rate). Lamb has been a beast versus right-handed pitching this season (.420 wOBA) and I think we see very low ownership on him considering the wrist issues.
Travis Shaw, Boston Red Sox – Because he hits lower in the order, Travis Shaw is rarely popular in tournament play. Shaw has been extremely productive hitting at home against righties in 2016 (.376 wOBA) and I love his upside versus Mike Pelfrey and a terrible Detroit Tigers bullpen.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Kris Bryant, Adrian Beltre, Danny Valencia, Pedro Alvarez
SHORTSTOP
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox – We have one of the most hittable pitchers in the game facing the best offense in baseball tonight at Fenway Park, which means we should be loading up on Boston Red Sox bats. Mike Pelfrey is getting hammered by righties (.363 wOBA) and I see a multi-hit game in Bogaerts’ future.
Eduardo Nunez, Minnesota Twins – Lucas Harrell is one of a few Gas Cans on the bump tonight and I really like the Minnesota Twins bats this evening. Nunez, the Twins’ offensive catalyst can do it all and he has jack-and-a-bag upside in this game.
Other Shortstops to Target – Carlos Correa, Jonathan Villar, Eduardo Nunez, Troy Tulowitzki, J.J. Hardy
OUTFIELDERS
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins – Lucas Harrell is a below average pitcher, with a below average strikeout rate. Which means Miguel Sano should be able to put the ball in play tonight. When the big man puts the ball in play, good things happen. Sano has multi-homer upside versus Lucas Harrell and a bad Atlanta Braves bullpen.
Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays – Andrew Cashner has looked much better of late, but I still think this is a pitcher we can attack tonight. Cashner has really scuffled away from Petco Park in 2016, posting a 6.59 ERA, while allowing a .382 wOBA. Look for the Blue Jays to have a productive night against Cashner and that weak San Diego Padres bullpen.
Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles – Chad Bettis is another arm we can pick on tonight. The Colorado Rockies’ right-hander has reverse splits and righties are pounding him this season (.359 wOBA, 37.9% hard-hit rate). Both Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones have multi-homer upside in this one.
Josh Reddick, Oakland A’s – Josh Reddick is another Oakland A’s lefty bat that I love tonight. Christmas has come early for the A’s and I expect them to put up a big number tonight against Nick Martinez. Reddick has double-dong potential in this game and I think he flies under the radar in large field tournaments.
Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners – With Francisco Liriano coming off of a gem, I can see both of these sluggers going highly under-owned this evening. However, both Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez crush lefties and make great boom-or-bust options in GPPs this evening.
Other Outfielders to Target – Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, George Springer, Ryan Braun, Dexter Fowler, Rajai Davis