MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-02 02:47:57

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Cleveland at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Toronto
			Josh Tomlin					Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -120					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.255	13	16.6%	2.3%	SP vs. Left	0.324	7	16.3%	8.2%
SP vs. Right	0.327	18	19.8%	2.9%	SP vs. Right	0.315	5	16.8%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Josh Tomlin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,100
					FPPG:		31.8	FPPG:		16.1
					Pitcher Rating:		47.7	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	5	100.4	4.55	2.60	13.7%	1.4%	5.6%	40.9%	40.0%	27.4%
2016	14	92.2	4.36	3.32	15.5%	2.2%	6.6%	41.1%	38.4%	33.8%
2015	10	94.9	3.46	3.02	22.7%	3.2%	9.4%	37.5%	46.2%	33.2%

There are only two day games on the schedule today, so if you are playing in the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the Royals/Phillies game. Tomlin will be on the mound for the Indians, as they take on the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre. Tomlin has a low ERA this season, but we can expect some regression moving forward. His SIERA is significantly higher than his ERA and his strikeout rate is way down from a season ago. Facing a tough offense in a hitter’s park, Tomlin can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marcus Stroman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$5,000
					FPPG:		25.6	FPPG:		11.6
					Pitcher Rating:		57.7	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	5	89.8	4.30	7.76	16.1%	8.9%	8.7%	56.0%	16.5%	35.9%
2016	16	96.6	4.06	5.33	16.3%	7.1%	8.3%	58.8%	20.7%	33.6%
2015	4	93.3	3.28	1.67	17.5%	5.8%	7.2%	64.1%	17.9%	21.8%

Stroman has not had nearly as much success as he did a season. In 16 starts this season, he has a 4.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.3%. He is still producing an elite ground ball rate, but he is giving up a lot more hard contact this year (33.6%). Until he can flash some form, he can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs. He draws a tough matchup against the Indians, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are a top ten offense against right-handed pitching and they are playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. They come into the game with the eighth highest implied team total. Typically, I don’t like to target offenses against elite ground ball pitchers, but with Marcus Stroman struggling so bad this season, there are a few Indians’ hitters on my radar.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.90 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.345	0.223	0.382	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,600
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.374	0.177	0.355	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,500
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.351	0.161	0.402	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,800
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.296	0.176	0.335	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.314	0.142	0.332	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,000
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.314	0.152	0.460	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.264	0.175	0.317	C	$2,600	C	$3,200
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.414	0.257	0.632	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.316	0.149	0.371	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.179	0.398	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays are playing at home, they hit right-handed pitching well as a team, and they have the fourth highest implied total on the schedule. Josh Tomlin should experience some regression moving forward and that could very well start today. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has reverse-splits. That is great news for the right-handed hitters in this lineup.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.198 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.62 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.307	0.102	0.323	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,100
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.378	0.211	0.520	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,800
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.391	0.265	0.510	3B	$4,400	3B	$4,600
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.278	0.495	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,900
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.355	0.206	0.338	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.308	0.176	0.349	C	$2,600	C	$3,000
7	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.324	0.187	0.394	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,500
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.308	0.139	0.321	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.313	0.117	0.266	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.187	0.391	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Devon Travis, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at Washington – 6:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					Washington
			Anthony DeSclafani					Tanner Roark
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -200					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.341	14	18.6%	9.2%	SP vs. Left	0.319	12	16.5%	8.5%
SP vs. Right	0.300	5	19.1%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.305	12	19.5%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Anthony DeSclafani
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		32.0	FPPG:		15.9
					Pitcher Rating:		42.2	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	4	100.3	4.72	1.52	15.5%	7.2%	8.2%	45.7%	30.0%	23.3%
2016	4	100.3	4.71	1.52	15.5%	7.2%	8.2%	45.7%	30.0%	23.3%
2015	31	94.0	4.08	4.05	19.2%	7.0%	9.5%	45.1%	33.6%	31.4%

DeSclafani has shown some decent strikeout potential in the minor leagues, but that has yet to show itself in the majors. In four starts this season, he has a 4.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.5%. He comes into this game as one of the largest underdogs on the board. The Nationals aren’t the best offensive team against right-handed pitching, but they should be able to score some runs against DeSclafani.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tanner Roark
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$9,800
					FPPG:		34.6	FPPG:		18.1
					Pitcher Rating:		76.7	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	93.6	3.65	3.56	21.6%	4.8%	8.8%	49.4%	29.2%	25.3%
2016	16	101.2	3.87	2.96	21.5%	7.7%	8.5%	53.8%	24.4%	22.2%
2015	12	150.0	4.16	4.38	15.0%	5.6%	7.1%	47.8%	30.6%	26.3%

Roark is having a career season. After being moved to the bullpen last season, he has really turned it around this year. In 16 starts, he has a 3.87 SIERA (2.96 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 21.5%. He has improved his ground ball rate and lowered his hard hit contact rate. He is a huge favorite against the Reds, who are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 24th in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. If you are playing in the all-day slate, it may not be a bad idea to build your lineups around Roark.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds haven’t hit right-handed pitching well this season and they come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Tanner Roark, who is really hitting his stride this season. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA this year. Outside of Joey Votto as a one-off in tournaments, the Reds can be avoided.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.298 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.9% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.25 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.67 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.318	0.183	0.326	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,600
2	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.258	0.064	0.257	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.409	0.232	0.371	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.306	0.112	0.215	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,700
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.338	0.260	0.343	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200
6	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.364	0.349	0.351	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200
7	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.301	0.156	0.324	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,200
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.295	0.092	0.361	C	$2,600	C	$2,300
9	Anthony DeSclafani	RIGHT	0.163	0.019	0.293	P	$7,000	P	$8,200
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.163	0.316	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals are ranked right around the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Given the fact that they have the third highest team total on the board, they obviously have one of the more exploitable matchups today. Over the last two seasons, Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a .341 wOBA and 14 home runs to left-handed hitters.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.83 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.300	0.068	0.249	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,600
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.285	0.128	0.351	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,400
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.446	0.315	0.386	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,000
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.374	0.220	0.383	2B	$4,400	2B	$4,700
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.318	0.159	0.406	C	$3,500	C	$3,900
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.291	0.166	0.224	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,800
7	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.310	0.129	0.325	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,600
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.307	0.167	0.420	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,600
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.132	0.044	0.350	P	$8,700	P	$9,800
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.155	0.344	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Kansas City at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					Philadelphia
			Ian Kennedy					Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -117					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.344	27	24.4%	8.5%	SP vs. Left	0.354	16	17.7%	8.9%
SP vs. Right	0.329	23	23.5%	6.5%	SP vs. Right	0.320	22	21.8%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ian Kennedy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,800
					FPPG:		31.7	FPPG:		16.6
					Pitcher Rating:		73.7	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	97.4	4.36	5.83	21.1%	4.9%	8.6%	27.3%	55.7%	44.9%
2016	15	100.2	4.19	3.96	23.1%	7.9%	9.9%	32.9%	49.4%	37.7%
2015	30	97.0	3.61	4.28	24.4%	7.3%	10.3%	38.5%	38.7%	35.2%

Kennedy would be a very good pitcher if he didn’t give up so many home runs. Over the last two seasons (45 starts), he has allowed 50 home runs. It’s really difficult to trust a pitcher that allows so many home runs. He does have a high strikeout rate though, and his matchup against the Phillies is certainly in his favor. I will not have any exposure to Kennedy in cash games, but he does make an interesting GPP option.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeremy Hellickson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,400
					FPPG:		28.8	FPPG:		15.0
					Pitcher Rating:		53.4	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	5	97.2	4.94	5.40	14.7%	7.8%	9.3%	42.1%	30.5%	28.3%
2016	16	92.7	3.96	4.23	21.7%	6.2%	11.5%	41.7%	33.8%	30.1%
2015	27	91.8	4.14	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%

Hellickson started off the season in great form, but has since cooled off. Over the last month of play, he has a 4.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.7%. He has never been an elite ground ball pitcher and he has struggled with the long ball. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed 38 home runs in only 43 starts. If these two pitchers live up to expectations, we can expect some fireworks between these two offenses.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have struggled offensively this season, but draw one of the better matchups on the board tonight. They get to square off against the struggling Jeremy Hellickson and they face him in the somewhat hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Over the last two seasons, Hellickson has allowed a .354 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .320 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.129 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.7% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.35 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.332	0.164	0.272	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.312	0.120	0.285	2B	$3,300	2B/OF	$3,700
3	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.352	0.212	0.598	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,600
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.380	0.183	0.305	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.342	0.203	0.321	C	$3,500	C	$4,000
6	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.267	0.060	0.357	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,400
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.305	0.138	0.339	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,400
8	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.301	0.113	0.427	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300
9	Ian Kennedy	RIGHT	0.111	0.088	0.000	P	$8,600	P	$8,800
	Team Averages	—	0.300	0.142	0.323	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Eric Hosmer

Secondary Plays – Alex Gordon, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia

The Phillies are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, but their run projection is significantly higher than their average on the season. They draw a favorable matchup against Ian Kennedy, who is a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of home runs. Over the last two seasons, Kennedy has given up a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.296 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.48 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.355	0.140	0.323	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,300
2	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.277	0.143	0.519	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.340	0.200	0.310	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,700
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.237	0.216	0.193	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,000
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.291	0.148	0.433	C	$3,300	C	$3,100
6	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.310	0.169	0.345	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.293	0.126	0.285	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,300
8	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.300	0.089	0.380	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,900
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.214	0.000	0.000	P	$6,900	P	$7,400
	Team Averages	—	0.291	0.137	0.310	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Peter Bourjos

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Cody Asche

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					NY Mets
			Jason Hammel					Jacob deGrom
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -105					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.314	10	22.3%	9.5%	SP vs. Left	0.283	15	25.3%	5.0%
SP vs. Right	0.284	21	23.3%	3.8%	SP vs. Right	0.232	7	27.1%	5.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jason Hammel
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,300
					FPPG:		26.7	FPPG:		14.1
					Pitcher Rating:		74.7	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	88.0	4.38	3.45	16.0%	4.0%	8.4%	43.6%	34.0%	29.2%
2016	15	88.0	4.34	2.58	19.9%	7.7%	9.7%	44.2%	36.0%	28.6%
2015	31	88.7	3.45	3.74	24.2%	5.6%	10.9%	38.3%	37.2%	32.9%

Hammel has a much lower ERA than SIERA, which suggests some regression may be in store. His strikeout rate is way down this season and his .246 BABIP doesn’t seem sustainable. Eventually, the hits are going to come at a higher rate. The good news is that he draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, whose offense just hasn’t been the same thanks to all of the injuries that they have sustained. Hammel is a little expensive for my tastes, but he still grades out as a top five pitching option in this slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jacob deGrom
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$10,300
					FPPG:		31.3	FPPG:		17.5
					Pitcher Rating:		90.0	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	104.0	2.60	2.45	30.8%	3.9%	9.4%	50.6%	25.9%	29.8%
2016	13	97.5	3.61	2.67	23.6%	5.8%	10.6%	46.8%	30.0%	33.2%
2015	30	99.2	2.99	2.54	27.3%	5.1%	12.7%	44.4%	34.7%	26.3%

DeGrom seems to be getting better with each and every start. Over the last month of play, he has a 2.60 with a strikeout rate over 30%. Any concerns about his fantasy appeal are long gone at this point. He faces a tough test tonight, as the Cubs are a top five offense that has made it tough on a number of elite pitchers this season. Typically, I would try to find a pitcher in a better matchup, but most of the pitchers in this slate have some red flags. Even with the tough matchup, deGrom grades out as the top pitching option available tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may be one of the best offenses in baseball, but Vegas doesn’t seem to care. With a matchup against Jacob deGrom, the Cubs have the lowest implied team total on the board tonight. With so many games on the slate, we don’t need to target these Cubs’ hitters against an elite pitcher.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.35 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.47 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.345	0.168	0.300	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,600
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.335	0.141	0.274	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.382	0.232	0.489	3B	$3,800	3B/OF	$5,000
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.400	0.271	0.561	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,900
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.487	0.435	0.449	C	$3,000	C/OF	$3,600
6	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.315	0.154	0.165	C	$2,400	C	$2,800
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.326	0.151	0.356	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,200
8	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.322	0.188	0.344	OF	$2,300	2B/OF	$2,500
9	Jason Hammel	RIGHT	0.189	0.037	0.176	P	$8,800	P	$9,300
	Team Averages	—	0.345	0.197	0.346	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

The Mets may be small favorites here, but they still have the second lowest team total on the board. Jason Hammel isn’t exactly a pitcher that you would expect to find in a pitcher’s duel, but that could very well happen tonight. Over the last two seasons, Hammel has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.58 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.53 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.251	0.000	0.220	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,000
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.328	0.172	0.227	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,200
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.375	0.259	0.358	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,200
4	James Loney	LEFT	0.315	0.096	0.406	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,000
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.315	0.163	0.321	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,200
6	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.307	0.144	0.333	3B	$2,100	2B/OF	$2,900
7	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.283	0.116	0.279	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,500
8	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.305	0.153	0.191	C	$2,100	C	$2,800
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.189	0.014	0.000	P	$10,000	P	$10,300
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.124	0.259	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Tampa Bay
			Michael Fulmer					Drew Smyly
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -115					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.254	0	15.8%	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.279	4	36.7%	5.0%
SP vs. Right	0.305	6	28.7%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.332	26	24.7%	6.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$10,900
					FPPG:		36.7	FPPG:		19.1
					Pitcher Rating:		63.3	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	5	91.0	4.72	0.61	20.5%	11.1%	11.4%	44.0%	36.0%	29.9%
2016	11	94.8	4.11	2.40	22.8%	9.1%	11.0%	48.0%	32.4%	30.9%

Fulmer has a 2.40 ERA on the season, but we can expect something closer to 4.00 the rest of the way. He has a .260 BABIP and a ridiculously high left on base percentage of 86.2. Both of those numbers are going to be unsustainable over the course of an entire season. That’s not to say that Fulmer can’t have success moving forward, but we may want to temper our expectations a bit. I see him as a GPP play tonight against the Rays in Tampa.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Smyly
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,500
					FPPG:		28.9	FPPG:		15.7
					Pitcher Rating:		73.5	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	5	93.6	3.41	8.46	25.8%	3.9%	11.3%	33.7%	44.6%	38.2%
2016	15	97.4	3.50	5.32	26.7%	5.3%	11.7%	32.1%	48.8%	33.2%
2015	12	94.7	3.25	3.10	28.0%	7.3%	11.4%	36.8%	44.3%	31.6%

Smyly has one of the largest gaps between his ERA and SIERA of any pitcher with at least ten starts this season. While other pitchers are likely to regress, we can actually expect Smyly’s ERA and fantasy performance to improve. His peripherals look great this year, posting a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.7%. I will be all over Smyly in his next favorable matchup, but facing the Tigers doesn’t exactly qualify. Detroit is ranked inside the top ten in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers draw a difficult matchup against Drew Smyly on paper, but they come into the game with the 11th highest team total on the board. That says a lot about how well this lineup has the potential to perform when they face a left-handed pitcher. While I don’t mind the Tigers as a whole, I see the individual hitters as secondary options against Smyly.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.330 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.176 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.1% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.79 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.34 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.370	0.171	0.227	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,400
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.353	0.134	0.339	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.353	0.175	0.412	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,900
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.385	0.158	0.369	C	$3,600	1B	$4,100
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.376	0.242	0.388	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,500
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.274	0.137	0.323	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.376	0.250	0.308	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
8	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.281	0.088	0.232	2B	$2,200	2B/OF	$2,900
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.347	0.126	0.304	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.346	0.165	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays are typically an offense that we like to avoid against right-handed pitching. They strikeout at a high rate and they have the seventh lowest team ISO against righties this season. With a mediocre matchup against Michael Fulmer, the Rays’ hitters are secondary fantasy options.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.1% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.16 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.325	0.113	0.335	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,300
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.339	0.193	0.421	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,900
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.320	0.186	0.322	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,500
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.316	0.180	0.271	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,200
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.302	0.130	0.815	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
6	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.292	0.139	0.331	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
7	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.350	0.280	0.245	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
8	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.308	0.183	0.484	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.328	0.195	0.301	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.178	0.392	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 1st

Cleveland at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Devon Travis, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at Washington – 6:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Kansas City at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Eric Hosmer

Secondary Plays – Alex Gordon, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Peter Bourjos

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Cody Asche

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller

Stackability – NONE

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