MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-18 03:25:22

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Pittsburgh					Chicago Cubs
			Francisco Liriano					Jake Arrieta
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -260					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.286	6	25.7%	9.7%	SP vs. Left	0.221	4	28.8%	7.6%
SP vs. Right	0.305	22	25.2%	10.4%	SP vs. Right	0.230	9	25.4%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Francisco Liriano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		26.5	FPPG:		12.6
					Pitcher Rating:		54.7	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	94.2	5.35	4.82	17.3%	14.2%	9.6%	51.2%	29.8%	35.6%
2016	12	96.4	4.69	4.92	22.2%	13.4%	10.7%	51.3%	31.6%	36.7%
2015	31	96.2	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

We only have one early game today, so if you want to take any players in this one, you are going to have to play the all-day slate. The struggling Liriano will be on the mound for the Buccos. Over the last month of play, Liriano has a 5.35 SIERA with a walk rate that is nearly as high as high strikeout rate of 17.3%. He comes into this game as one of the largest underdogs on the board. The good news is that the wind is blowing in today at Wrigley; the bad news is that it may not matter for Liriano if he doesn’t have any command.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,900	Salary:		$12,900
					FPPG:		45.9	FPPG:		26.0
					Pitcher Rating:		98.2	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	104.8	3.17	2.90	26.7%	7.6%	12.2%	60.2%	24.1%	22.6%
2016	13	102.3	3.31	1.86	26.5%	8.2%	11.1%	58.1%	24.0%	22.4%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Arrieta has been amazing this season and yet he is arguably having the third best season of any pitcher in the National League (see: Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard). He currently owns a 3.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.5%. He dominates hitters from both sides of the plate and should be no match for the Pirates’ offense in this one. Arrieta grades out as the top pitching option on the board today, so if you are playing the all-day slate, you may want to build your team around Arrieta.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Targeting hitters against Jake Arrieta is not a profitable strategy in DFS. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA. He also has an elite strikeout rate against hitters from both sides of the plate. The Pirates’ offense should be avoided in all league formats.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.58 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.353	0.153	0.274	1B	$3,000	1B	$2,700
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.342	0.160	0.300	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.360	0.192	0.246	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,700
4	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.368	0.200	0.439	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
5	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.361	0.162	0.520	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.304	0.100	0.252	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,700
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.263	0.062	0.314	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,200
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.282	0.070	0.255	C	$2,100	C	$2,000
9	Francisco Liriano	LEFT	0.258	0.090	0.000	P	$8,900	P	$6,300
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.132	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been one of the best offenses in baseball this season and they draw a favorable matchup today against the struggling Francisco Liriano. He has been a completely different pitcher this season, so we shouldn’t put too much emphasis on his splits from a year ago. In 2016, he has allowed a .327 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .357 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.342 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.4% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.38 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.42 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.379	0.159	0.252	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700
2	Matt Szczur	RIGHT	0.322	0.211	0.195	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.391	0.182	0.331	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,900
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.362	0.188	0.439	1B	$3,900	1B	$5,100
5	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.312	0.250	0.375	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400
6	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.423	0.204	0.304	SS	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,800
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.245	0.134	0.297	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200
8	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.306	0.154	0.266	C	$2,300	C	$3,500
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.308	0.125	0.751	P	$11,900	P	$12,900
	Team Averages	—	0.339	0.179	0.357	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Albert Amora

Secondary Plays – Matt Szczur, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Arizona at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Philadelphia
			Robbie Ray					Adam Morgan
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI -145					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.296	3	23.9%	5.5%	SP vs. Left	0.306	4	12.9%	7.3%
SP vs. Right	0.341	16	22.6%	10.8%	SP vs. Right	0.355	19	15.8%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Robbie Ray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		28.6	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		71.4	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	5	100.4	3.74	4.73	25.8%	10.0%	8.4%	52.6%	27.6%	36.4%
2016	13	99.5	3.98	4.57	24.8%	10.2%	10.0%	45.7%	29.6%	36.5%
2015	23	98.1	4.05	3.52	21.8%	9.0%	9.0%	43.3%	34.6%	35.0%

Ray is making his 14th start of the season. He has pitched pretty well thus far, posting a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.8%. He is also averaging close to 100 pitches per start, which is up a bit from last season. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Phillies, who are ranked 23rd or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. Ray is a nice source of value in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Morgan
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,100
					FPPG:		18.4	FPPG:		8.3
					Pitcher Rating:		36.0	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	5	96.0	4.37	6.28	18.0%	4.7%	11.0%	34.7%	44.2%	40.6%
2016	9	91.4	4.57	6.33	17.3%	6.1%	10.8%	35.2%	42.1%	37.3%
2015	15	83.1	4.94	4.48	13.9%	4.8%	9.7%	30.6%	49.3%	29.8%

Morgan has been an easy fade in DFS over the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has a SIERA just under 5.00 with a strikeout rate under 16%. That doesn’t exactly scream upside, especially when you pitch for a team that doesn’t provide much run support. The Diamondbacks are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching this season, ranking third in both team wOBA and team ISO.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have to be considered one of the top offenses to target tonight. They hit left-handed pitching well as a team and they draw a favorable matchup against Adam Morgan in an underrated hitter’s park that is Citizens Bank Park. Over the last two seasons, Morgan has allowed a .355 wOBA and 19 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.348 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.194 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.38 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.51 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.291	0.097	0.328	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,400
2	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.307	0.187	0.157	OF	$2,200	3B/OF	$3,300
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.448	0.235	0.432	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,300
4	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.389	0.277	0.307	C	$2,900	C	$4,000
5	Rickie Weeks	RIGHT	0.340	0.213	0.382	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.365	0.220	0.266	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800
7	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.330	0.149	0.242	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,000
8	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.165	0.000	0.934	P	$7,300	P	$8,400
9	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.282	0.052	0.200	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,700
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.159	0.361	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Brandon Drury, Rickie Weeks, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia

The Phillies have struggled against left-handed pitching as a whole, but they do have a few individual hitters with good numbers against southpaws. Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, and Cameron Rupp all hit from the right side of the plate and all own at least a .330 wOBA against lefties. Meanwhile, Robbie Ray has allowed a .341 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.261 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.100 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.6% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.22 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.99 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.318	0.075	0.335	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,500
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.242	0.032	0.149	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,600
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.331	0.239	0.275	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,700
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.479	0.304	0.349	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.349	0.198	0.342	C	$2,600	C	$3,400
6	Jimmy Paredes	SWITCH	0.290	0.077	0.288	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,500
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.242	0.077	0.243	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000
8	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.307	0.069	0.305	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,900
9	Adam Morgan	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.416	P	$6,100	P	$5,100
	Team Averages	—	0.284	0.119	0.300	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Tommy Joseph

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – NONE

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					Baltimore
			Aaron Sanchez					Mike Wright
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -143					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.343	15	18.1%	11.8%	SP vs. Left	0.404	8	13.5%	7.9%
SP vs. Right	0.240	2	21.4%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.340	10	15.8%	9.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$9,500
					FPPG:		37.0	FPPG:		19.6
					Pitcher Rating:		55.8	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	101.8	2.82	3.51	27.3%	5.8%	9.0%	57.6%	19.6%	32.3%
2016	13	99.5	3.47	3.38	23.5%	8.2%	8.6%	58.6%	19.7%	28.6%
2015	11	131.7	4.43	3.22	16.1%	11.6%	7.0%	60.6%	21.6%	21.0%

Sanchez has been terrific this season, posting a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.5%. He induces an elite ground ball rate, which helps keep base hits to singles rather than doubles, triples, and home runs. Sanchez draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Orioles, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA and 23rd in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. He’s not the safest cash game option, but is certainly worth a look in GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Wright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$4,300
					FPPG:		20.0	FPPG:		8.9
					Pitcher Rating:		24.7	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	5	92.8	5.42	5.47	14.3%	10.7%	5.4%	41.5%	37.8%	39.8%
2016	11	97.5	4.87	5.31	16.2%	8.7%	6.2%	42.1%	35.8%	30.9%
2015	9	87.2	5.28	6.04	12.8%	8.8%	7.3%	37.7%	42.9%	29.7%

Wright is one of the best pitchers in daily fantasy to pick on. He has not pitched well this season, posting a 4.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.2%. He has struggled with hitters from both sides of the plate and has to face a talented Blue Jays’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark tonight. There is no reason for Wright to be on your radar in this one.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays come into tonight’s game with the third highest team total on the board. They continue to climb up the offensive rankings and are finally starting to look like the team that they were a season ago. You can load up on Blue Jays’ bats tonight, as Mike Wright has allowed a .404 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.1% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.75 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.384	0.279	0.327	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,200
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.392	0.267	0.509	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,600
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.381	0.276	0.513	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,400
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.356	0.181	0.462	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,000
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.308	0.178	0.434	C	$3,200	C	$4,000
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.313	0.143	0.420	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,800
7	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.342	0.169	0.258	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,500
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.294	0.123	0.321	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,300
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.320	0.124	0.240	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.343	0.193	0.387	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and do have a nice track record against elite ground ball pitchers. However, I still don’t consider this an elite matchup. If Sanchez is able to keep the ball on the ground, it negates a lot of the Orioles’ power. The one plus in this matchup is that Aaron Sanchez has allowed a .343 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.343 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.201 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.25 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.341	0.219	0.373	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.373	0.099	0.289	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.387	0.249	0.364	SS	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,800
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.397	0.325	0.450	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,700
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.342	0.197	0.332	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.330	0.162	0.278	C	$2,800	C	$3,300
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.358	0.232	0.346	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,500
8	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.270	0.071	0.369	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.272	0.133	0.287	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.187	0.343	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Hyun-Soo Kim

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					NY Mets
			John Gant					Matt Harvey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -230					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.446	1	25.6%	12.8%	SP vs. Left	0.319	19	23.3%	7.3%
SP vs. Right	0.329	1	25.0%	11.1%	SP vs. Right	0.252	7	23.4%	3.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
John Gant
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		9.4	FPPG:		4.6
					Pitcher Rating:		51.1	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	1	88.0	5.13	4.32	19.5%	14.6%	7.5%	45.8%	37.5%	19.2%
2016	1	88.0	3.99	5.63	25.3%	12.0%	9.2%	40.9%	38.6%	30.4%

Gant is making his second career major league start. He gave up three runs in his first start, while striking out five batters in just over four innings of work. He has shown great strikeout potential in the minor leagues, but is still struggling to find his footing at the major league level. As one of the largest underdogs on the board tonight, he is an easy fade in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Harvey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,300
					FPPG:		25.9	FPPG:		12.8
					Pitcher Rating:		81.0	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	86.6	4.45	4.23	17.9%	6.3%	9.2%	40.2%	40.2%	32.9%
2016	13	92.5	4.22	4.66	19.5%	6.4%	10.5%	40.1%	35.1%	30.3%
2015	29	96.5	3.23	2.71	24.9%	4.9%	11.6%	46.0%	36.1%	26.7%

Harvey has pitched well in each of his last three starts. He has only given up two runs combined during that stretch, while striking out 17 batters. He should keep his streak of quality starts alive tonight against the Braves, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The Braves may not have the highest strikeout rate, but Harvey should be in line for the win. Dollar for dollar, he is one of the top pitching options on the board, especially on FanDuel ($8,700).

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have the second lowest team total on the board tonight, as they square off against Matt Harvey in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Freddie Freeman has been red-hot at the plate with a .437 wOBA over the last 14 days. He is really the only Braves’ hitter on my radar and he is best suited as a GPP play.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.286 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.102 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.29 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.00 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.371	0.185	0.315	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.338	0.118	0.304	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.377	0.233	0.437	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,200
4	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.305	0.143	0.349	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,100
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.337	0.096	0.264	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
6	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.304	0.092	0.454	2B	$2,700	2B/OF	$2,400
7	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.311	0.122	0.147	C	$2,100	C	$2,600
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.279	0.070	0.444	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
9	John Gant	RIGHT			0.000	P	$6,000	P	$5,600
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.132	0.302	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

The Mets draw a boom or bust type of matchup against John Gant, who is only making his second career major league start. Vegas seems to like the matchup for New York, as they currently have the sixth highest team total on the board. While hitters from both sides of the plate are in play, give a small edge to the lefties in this lineup.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.184 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.6% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.78 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.50 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.375	0.233	0.401	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700
2	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.378	0.273	0.239	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.377	0.264	0.368	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.337	0.181	0.320	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000
5	James Loney	LEFT	0.299	0.071	0.300	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,100
6	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.318	0.163	0.291	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700
7	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.310	0.147	0.355	3B	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,200
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.261	0.058	0.264	C	$2,100	C	$2,300
9	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.092	0.036	0.000	P	$8,700	P	$10,300
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.158	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, James Loney

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					Miami
			Jon Gray					Adam Conley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -120					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.314	5	26.7%	8.3%	SP vs. Left	0.352	1	18.1%	10.3%
SP vs. Right	0.337	6	23.8%	6.3%	SP vs. Right	0.311	12	22.3%	8.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$10,100
					FPPG:		33.7	FPPG:		18.0
					Pitcher Rating:		80.4	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	92.0	3.69	4.70	25.4%	7.9%	13.3%	45.6%	35.4%	34.2%
2016	10	93.4	3.21	4.70	27.9%	7.0%	12.7%	48.0%	27.6%	30.8%
2015	9	75.8	3.89	5.53	21.6%	7.6%	10.1%	42.4%	32.8%	36.4%

We have been waiting for the perfect time to target Jon Gray and tonight could finally be it. He has been a very good pitcher this season, he has just had some bad luck, both in terms of batted balls and in terms of the ballpark that half of his starts have been in. Through ten starts, he owns a 3.21 SIERA with a strikeut rate of 27.9%. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Marlins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If you have been waiting for a good time to use Gray, this could be it.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Conley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$6,200
					FPPG:		26.9	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		69.6	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	5	98.6	4.76	5.27	18.8%	10.2%	7.5%	44.6%	38.6%	21.8%
2016	13	90.9	4.32	4.13	21.9%	9.5%	9.3%	40.8%	38.3%	27.5%
2015	11	100.2	3.98	3.76	21.0%	7.5%	10.1%	40.6%	40.6%	21.7%

Conley hasn’t been great over the last month of play, posting a 4.76 SIERA with a 10.2% walk rate. It’s always hard to target pitchers with bad command, unless they have an elite strikeout rate to go with it. While the Rockies are a much different offense on the road, they are still a top ten offense against left-handed pitching. I strongly prefer Jon Gray over Conley in this matchup, even though the Marlins are favored.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies’ low team total doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but I do like the matchup against Adam Conley. Not only does he walk a lot of batters, but he gives up a lot of fly balls as well. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .352 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .311 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.182 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.3% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.14 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.63 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.327	0.130	0.370	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,300
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.353	0.098	0.468	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,300
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.353	0.220	0.417	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,600
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.250	0.152	0.443	OF	$4,000	OF	$3,600
5	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.402	0.269	0.308	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
6	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.351	0.243	0.356	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,400
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.320	0.156	0.348	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,500
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.322	0.140	0.264	C	$2,500	C	$2,400
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.062	0.000	0.147	P	$8,200	P	$10,100
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.156	0.347	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Ryan Raburn

Stackability – NONE

Miami

The Marlins are small favorites tonight against the Rockies, but I’m not a huge fan of their offense in this one. Jon Gray has an elite strikeout rate and he has been tough on left-handed hitters in his career. Vegas may disagree with me on this one, but I am very bearish on the Marlins tonight.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.7% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.09 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.370	0.202	0.248	2B	$2,900	2B	$2,800
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.313	0.097	0.453	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,400
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.368	0.152	0.342	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,500
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.308	0.141	0.319	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.343	0.259	0.145	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,800
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.355	0.246	0.349	1B	$3,000	1B	$2,800
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.308	0.125	0.364	C	$3,100	C	$2,900
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.273	0.084	0.270	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,500
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.110	0.000	0.000	P	$7,900	P	$6,200
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.145	0.277	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 17th

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Albert Amora

Secondary Plays – Matt Szczur, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Arizona at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Brandon Drury, Rickie Weeks, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Tommy Joseph

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – NONE

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Hyun-Soo Kim

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, James Loney

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Ryan Raburn

Stackability – NONE

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich

Stackability – NONE

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