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MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-08 01:49:47

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Detroit at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Detroit Pittsburgh
detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-155 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.338 35.9% 5.7% 16.1% 36.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.286 24.9% 6.8% 13.7% 49.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.359 0.338 30.4% 6.6% 14.6% 38.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.334 34.6% 7.2% 19.9% 48.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 11 of 14 Salary Rank: 8 of 14 Salary Rank: 8 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 4.81 4.87 14.7% 5.8% 43.1% 27.3% 18.5%
2017 21 5.03 5.35 15.9% 6.5% 33.0% 38.3% 14.0%
L30 5 4.87 4.61 14.5% 4.0% 33.3% 36.4% 13.1%

We have a small seven-game slate on tap on Monday night, but it features a nice mix of exploitable targets and good pitching options. Unfortunately for Zimmermann, he belongs in the first category. In 21 starts this season, he owns a 5.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He doesn’t induce ground balls and he gives up a lot of hard contact. Even though he gets to pitch in a National League ballpark, he’s an easy fade against the Pirates, who have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration tonight, or ever really.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 11 of 14 Salary Rank: 11 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 16 4.58 4.47 16.8% 6.8% 49.7% 29.5% 25.1%
L30 5 4.56 3.95 16.1% 8.9% 61.4% 26.9% 26.9%

Williams hasn’t been great this season, but he has induced a lot of ground balls in his recent outings. Over his last five starts, he has a 61% ground ball rate with a soft contact rate (27%) that matches his hard contact rate. The question tonight is whether or not he has enough upside to make a viable fantasy option in this short slate. The good news for is that right-handed pitchers can have success against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ lineup. The bad news is that Williams is a reverse-splits pitcher (.334 xwOBA allowed to righties).

Quick Breakdown: Williams offers decent value as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, but he’s far from a core play in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers lose the DH in this series and they see a ballpark downgrade playing in PNC Park. They are listed as sizable underdogs against Trevor Williams, who has shown an ability to induce ground balls at a high rate. With little to play for at this point of the season, the Tigers are likely better one-off targets than as a full stack, especially in this ballpark. In terms of splits, give an edge to the right-handed hitters here. Since the start of last season, Williams has allowed a .334 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.304 0.310 0.120 33.9% 10.3% 12.5% 33.1% 2B $2,900 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
2 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.330 0.337 0.158 54.8% 10.9% 23.4% 57.1% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 LF $5,600
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.354 0.345 0.224 42.9% 11.8% 28.5% 37.2% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 LF $10,400
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.313 0.387 0.180 45.3% 10.1% 20.2% 41.5% 1B $3,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.291 0.335 0.138 45.8% 7.8% 25.7% 40.4% 3B $2,500 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.357 0.332 0.136 32.6% 8.7% 20.6% 47.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.266 0.304 0.124 41.1% 7.4% 25.7% 38.3% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.286 0.249 0.106 30.3% 4.4% 14.4% 53.3% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Jordan Zimmermann RIGHT P $6,900 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

We have one of my favorite pitchers to stack against facing one of my least favorite offenses to stack. If I have to side with one or the other, it’s going to be with the Pirates’ offense. Since the start of last season, Jordan Zimmermann has allowed a .338+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. He has also given up a 36% hard contact rate to lefties during that stretch. I wouldn’t rule out a full Pirates’ stack here and you can certainly look to their batters in cash games and as one-off GPP targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.324 0.288 0.094 25.4% 4.3% 20.2% 52.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.330 0.326 0.137 32.3% 5.1% 15.8% 35.9% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,600
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.348 0.353 0.172 33.6% 10.2% 17.7% 41.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.342 0.337 0.223 34.3% 10.1% 20.6% 51.1% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.324 0.349 0.102 29.6% 12.4% 19.7% 56.6% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.314 0.313 0.170 25.4% 7.4% 11.1% 40.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.331 0.338 0.134 32.6% 10.3% 20.1% 49.0% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.321 0.313 0.152 27.8% 10.1% 15.3% 45.4% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.087 0.172 0.000 10.0% 3.2% 32.3% 58.8% P $7,000 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, David Freese, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
miamimlb Chris O’Grady washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-320 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.252 0.287 30.4% 12.5% 27.5% 30.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.293 30.6% 8.9% 26.1% 32.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.425 0.426 42.0% 12.5% 18.1% 28.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.193 0.210 27.8% 3.5% 40.5% 36.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris O’Grady
chris-o-grady-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 14 of 14 Salary Rank: 14 of 14 Salary Rank: 14 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.13 5.40 21.4% 12.5% 28.8% 38.4% 11.0%
L30 5 5.13 5.40 21.4% 12.5% 28.8% 38.4% 11.0%

O’Grady has not been sharp in his first five major league starts. His command has been a big issue and he’s also allowed a lot of hard contact. That doesn’t bode well for a road start against the Nationals, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. As the largest underdog in the slate, O’Grady is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward for O’Grady.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,100 Salary: $12,800 Salary: $24,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 14 Salary Rank: 1 of 14 Salary Rank: 1 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 22 2.75 2.21 35.7% 6.4% 37.4% 28.1% 19.6%
L30 5 3.04 3.51 36.2% 9.5% 35.1% 35.1% 12.3%

Scherzer left a sour taste in a lot of mouths in his last start. After pitching a perfect first inning and hitting a home run, he left the game with a neck injury and crippled many DFS lineups in the process. He is reportedly feeling fine and ready to make tonight’s start against the Marlins. This play has a risk/reward nature to it. On the one hand, he could aggravate the neck injury and leave the game early. On the other hand, the uncertainly will help lower his ownership, which is always beneficial in DFS. Given the lack of elite arms in the slate, I’m going to take a shot on Scherzer in both cash games and tournaments. His upside is far greater than any other pitcher in the player pool.

Quick Breakdown: Even with the neck injury, it’s full steam ahead for my Scherzer exposure. He’s an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins draw the worst matchup in the slate. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.324 0.270 0.078 20.3% 5.4% 13.7% 56.0% 2B $3,600 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.387 0.377 0.297 37.6% 10.6% 25.6% 41.7% OF $4,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.352 0.365 0.159 38.5% 12.1% 18.6% 56.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.401 0.380 0.284 44.7% 8.2% 22.9% 44.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.340 0.334 0.152 31.7% 6.2% 16.6% 51.1% C $2,900 C $3,100 C $6,000
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.282 0.287 0.161 32.0% 5.3% 18.9% 36.6% 3B $3,100 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
7 Tyler Moore RIGHT 0.343 0.282 0.273 32.7% 3.6% 29.8% 30.9% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,800
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.346 0.307 0.040 15.9% 10.5% 9.3% 50.0% SS $2,200 3B/SS $2,200 2B $4,100
9 Chris O’Grady LEFT 0.000 0.038 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $5,800 P $4,800 P $9,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are large favorites, they are playing at home, and they have one of the best matchups in the slate. The sample size is still small with Chris O’Grady (five starts), but thus far he has been dreadful against right-handed hitters, who have touched him up for a .426 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate. This is a great spot for a Nationals’ stack, as every player in their lineup has a .335+ wOBA (including the pitcher) against left-handed pitching this season. Howie Kendrick is one of the sneakiest plays on the board. He has quietly posted a .495 xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.469 0.398 0.306 40.9% 7.7% 35.9% 22.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.443 0.495 0.209 42.1% 14.0% 10.0% 50.0% OF $2,600 2B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.338 0.289 0.151 31.1% 7.0% 28.1% 49.3% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.396 0.387 0.316 44.1% 5.7% 16.1% 44.1% 1B $3,200 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.381 0.354 0.190 40.0% 7.0% 16.3% 36.9% 2B $3,700 2B $5,000 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.519 0.449 0.379 38.0% 17.1% 11.4% 26.0% 3B $3,300 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.361 0.295 0.233 18.2% 8.5% 21.3% 45.5% C $2,400 C $2,400 C $4,800
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.387 0.389 0.216 29.0% 7.5% 15.0% 58.6% SS $2,700 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,300
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.396 0.324 0.600 100.0% 0.0% 60.0% 50.0% P $11,100 P $12,800 P $24,800

Elite Plays – Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Wilmer Difo

Stackability – GREEN

San Diego at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

San Diego Cincinnati
sandiegomlb Jhoulys Chacin cincinnatimlb Tim Adleman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-113 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.344 35.0% 10.2% 14.8% 50.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.348 32.4% 9.4% 17.1% 28.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.288 25.2% 7.1% 23.6% 49.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.322 37.9% 7.8% 20.8% 41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jhoulys Chacin
jhoulys-chacin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 14 Salary Rank: 5 of 14 Salary Rank: 5 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.38 4.81 18.8% 8.7% 48.4% 31.6% 19.0%
2017 22 4.44 3.99 19.7% 8.5% 51.9% 28.6% 21.4%
L30 5 4.77 2.35 18.2% 9.9% 50.6% 23.0% 21.8%

Chacin has been a decent value play at times this season, but tonight isn’t the time to get cute by playing a road underdog in what is expected to be a shootout. Targeting pitchers in this ballpark is always risky, especially mediocre ones. Seeing as how Chacin only has a stirkeout rate of 20%, he’s an easy fade against the Reds, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chacin in all formats.

Tim Adleman
tim-adleman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 14 Salary Rank: 14 of 14 Salary Rank: 14 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 4.87 4.00 16.4% 7.0% 36.4% 35.4% 14.0%
2017 19 4.75 5.42 20.8% 9.5% 34.7% 35.3% 16.8%
L30 5 5.31 7.71 17.8% 9.3% 25.3% 42.4% 17.7%

Adleman isn’t a great pitcher, but he does have an above-average strikeout rate. That can cure a lot of problems when it comes to his fantasy appeal, especially when he is facing a Padres’ offense that has the second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. This is a bad ballpark and the Padres have shown some signs of life recently, but Adleman’s strikeout upside puts him on my radar for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: This game has a close spread and a high total, but Adleman’s strikeout potential makes him an intriguing GPP play.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have a relatively high implied run total, they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and they draw a decent matchup against Tim Adleman. Since the start of last season, Adleman has allowed a .348 xwOBA to lefties and a 38% hard contact rate to righties. This goes against my year long strategy of fading the Padres in DFS, but there are actually some viable bats in this lineup tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.308 0.280 0.138 25.7% 3.8% 22.6% 40.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.372 0.323 0.118 28.2% 9.5% 21.9% 33.8% 2B $2,400 2B $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.364 0.300 0.232 32.2% 4.0% 18.1% 42.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 2B $6,800
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.336 0.314 0.179 30.9% 10.1% 11.8% 39.4% 2B $2,600 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
5 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.321 0.304 0.209 38.4% 9.0% 29.2% 38.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
6 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.335 0.300 0.146 29.2% 7.5% 20.7% 46.1% 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,900 2B $7,800
7 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.274 0.273 0.204 34.3% 4.2% 32.0% 41.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.311 0.273 0.256 35.2% 5.2% 29.9% 36.1% C $2,300 C $3,400 C $6,600
9 Jhoulys Chacin RIGHT 0.229 0.160 0.000 9.5% 0.0% 16.0% 68.4% P $8,400 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela, Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The breakdown on Jhoulys Chacin is very simple. Play the left-handed hitters against him and avoid the right-handed hitters. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .344 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate to lefties. Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Jesse Winker are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions. Billy Hamilton is also worth a look batting leadoff, although it’s worth noting that Chacin is one of the best pitchers in the slate at holding runners.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.266 0.094 17.5% 8.8% 20.5% 45.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.385 0.320 0.236 29.7% 13.4% 17.0% 41.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.416 0.421 0.254 36.4% 17.0% 11.1% 37.6% 1B $4,200 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.330 0.292 0.238 33.9% 4.8% 27.3% 30.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.419 0.353 0.297 41.3% 6.3% 21.9% 41.0% 2B $2,500 2B/OF $4,000 2B $7,600
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.349 0.338 0.199 30.0% 11.6% 23.2% 43.0% 3B $2,800 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.328 0.298 0.198 31.3% 10.0% 23.0% 39.1% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,800
8 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.413 0.416 0.304 45.0% 20.7% 10.3% 55.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
9 Tim Adleman RIGHT 0.049 0.116 0.000 28.6% 0.0% 30.0% 80.0% P $6,200 P $4,600 P $9,000

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker (if batting second)

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jesse Winker (if batting eighth), Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Minnesota – 8:10 PM ET

Milwaukee Minnesota
milwaukeemlb Brent Suter minnesotamlb Ervin Santana
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-125 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.303 38.2% 3.5% 15.1% 38.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.298 28.9% 6.6% 16.7% 45.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.284 26.5% 6.6% 21.7% 47.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.316 29.5% 8.4% 22.3% 39.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brent Suter
brent-suter-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 8 of 14 Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 10 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.33 3.32 16.5% 5.5% 43.3% 34.3% 22.9%
2017 7 4.00 3.04 21.3% 5.8% 45.3% 28.2% 22.8%
L30 5 4.05 3.07 20.2% 4.2% 43.8% 31.5% 25.8%

Suter isn’t quite as talented as his 3.04 ERA suggests, but he’s still having a solid season for the Brewers. In seven starts, he has a 21% strikeout rate with a low walk rate and a low hard contact rate. He draws a difficult test tonight, as he heads to an American League ballpark to take on a right-handed heavy lineup of the Twins. This is a small slate, but we can find better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I can see Suter garnering some attention tonight, but I will be looking elsewhere.

Ervin Santana
ervin-santana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 3 of 14 Salary Rank: 3 of 14 Salary Rank: 3 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 22 4.72 3.28 19.2% 8.2% 41.7% 29.0% 21.5%
L30 5 4.62 3.97 19.6% 7.3% 37.4% 35.6% 22.8%

Santana has five complete games and three complete game shutouts this season, which is pretty incredible. I continue to take the calculated route of waiting for the regression to hit because his BABIP and LOB% are both unsustainable. The low ERA leads to a high price point, even though he has a below-average strikeout rate this season. Now, with all of that said, I’m actually giving him a hard look in this seven game slate. Outside of Scherzer, there aren’t many pitchers we can feel comfortable with. Santana may be overpriced, but he’s favored and he draws an exploitable matchup against the Brewers, who have the highest strikeout in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: What a strange slate, I’m considering the Padres’ offense and Santana.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Even though Ervin Santana is generally overpriced in DFS for what he brings to the table, he’s not a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Eric Thames and Travis Shaw are both viable one-off tournament targets, but the Brewers are easy fades in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Thames LEFT 0.396 0.351 0.293 43.4% 15.9% 26.9% 39.5% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,800
2 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.362 0.326 0.190 34.1% 11.6% 29.7% 48.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.330 0.264 39.6% 8.0% 22.8% 45.9% OF $4,100 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.401 0.367 0.280 39.5% 10.6% 21.3% 45.7% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
5 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.354 0.322 0.265 38.5% 6.2% 28.8% 41.8% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
6 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.369 0.339 0.118 25.0% 14.5% 12.5% 40.6% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,600 2B $5,100
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.306 0.286 0.196 34.6% 8.2% 38.1% 44.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
8 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.340 0.295 0.181 29.9% 6.6% 18.8% 36.8% C $2,400 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.308 0.270 0.132 27.5% 5.0% 17.8% 52.4% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

The Twins are going to get overlooked tonight for a couple of reasons. One, they are the Twins and nobody likes to play the Twins. The second reason is that Brent Suter has good numbers this season and he has been a popular value play recently. This should lead to low ownership tonight, despite the fact that they have a high implied run total. I don’t plan to go overboard with Twins tonight, but I have interest in the right-handed bats of Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, and Chris Gimenez.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.394 0.365 0.212 37.3% 11.2% 18.4% 46.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,800 2B $9,300
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.339 0.380 0.049 37.9% 22.9% 14.3% 44.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.374 0.379 0.225 31.1% 8.2% 15.3% 31.1% SS $2,600 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,600
4 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.264 0.277 0.029 10.5% 9.1% 15.6% 56.1% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.313 0.244 0.156 25.0% 2.1% 21.3% 53.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
6 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.292 0.303 0.059 27.1% 13.8% 26.3% 38.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
7 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.328 0.342 0.256 43.8% 10.0% 24.0% 33.3% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,800
8 Max Kepler LEFT 0.175 0.219 0.037 20.7% 6.7% 27.0% 49.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
9 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.205 0.233 0.086 26.6% 3.1% 15.5% 37.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 SS $5,100

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

St. Louis Kansas City
stlouismlb Carlos Martinez kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-114 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.331 35.4% 11.7% 20.1% 53.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.327 38.9% 8.9% 20.5% 31.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.242 0.243 26.7% 5.9% 27.0% 55.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.321 36.5% 8.3% 23.2% 38.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 4 of 14 Salary Rank: 4 of 14 Salary Rank: 4 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 56.4% 29.6% 19.1%
2017 22 3.89 3.59 26.0% 9.3% 51.0% 34.0% 18.1%
L30 5 4.24 5.28 20.9% 9.3% 53.9% 34.8% 15.7%

Martinez is one of the more intriguing pitchers in the slate. While he is pitching in an American League ballpark (has to face a DH instead of the opposing pitcher) and facing a Royals’ offense that has caught its stride, we don’t have many talented arms on the mound tonight. He’ll likely have to face five lefites in the Royals’ lineup, but he still brings plenty of strikeout upside. He gets to pitch in a big ballpark and he has an above-average ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: Martinez is viable tonight, but I prefer him more as an SP2 than an SP1.

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 9 of 14 Salary Rank: 9 of 14 Salary Rank: 9 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.27 3.68 22.5% 8.1% 33.2% 36.4% 18.6%
2017 20 4.75 4.60 20.7% 9.4% 38.4% 39.9% 13.0%
L30 5 4.36 5.06 20.4% 6.2% 38.3% 45.7% 11.1%

It’s not really fair to say that Kennedy has had a roller coaster season because most of it has been a struggle. He currently owns a 4.75 SIERA with a hard contact rate of 40%. In year’s past, we have been able to target him at home in this big ballpark, but that hasn’t been the case this season. While I certainly don’t see him as a core play in this slate, I do have some interest. He struggles with allowing too many home runs, but the Cardinals are ranked 21st in home runs hit this season. They also have a right-handed heavy lineup and Kennedy has a 23% strikeout rate against righties in the last two seasons.

Quick Breakdown: Kennedy is a viable SP2 in tournaments and one that should have low ownership.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Even though I have some interest in Ian Kennedy in tournaments, I will be taking a few shots on the Cardinals’ offense as well. This isn’t a great ballpark for offensive production, but they get to use the DH and they draw an exploitable matchup. In addition to the high number of home runs allowed, Kennedy has given up a .320+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.368 0.388 0.215 43.6% 15.9% 18.3% 24.4% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.385 0.357 0.178 36.4% 10.6% 24.9% 50.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,800 CF $9,300
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.334 0.329 0.248 39.3% 1.8% 32.0% 32.1% SS $3,000 2B/SS $4,600 3B $9,000
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.334 0.323 0.179 29.7% 10.2% 23.9% 40.6% 3B $2,700 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.295 0.307 0.120 33.3% 4.5% 16.2% 45.2% C $3,100 C $4,200 C $8,000
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.322 0.353 0.144 28.0% 12.7% 20.5% 45.6% OF $2,500 OF $2,500 RF $4,800
7 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.341 0.351 0.190 33.3% 9.2% 22.7% 46.3% OF $2,100 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.310 0.308 0.225 41.7% 5.4% 31.8% 36.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
9 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.337 0.310 0.138 23.8% 8.6% 14.1% 49.0% 2B $2,600 2B $3,400 2B $6,800

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City

Carlos Martinez has an above-average ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate, but that doesn’t mean that he’s unhittable. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .331 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The Royals will get overlooked, but Melky Cabrera, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas are all intriguing GPP plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.327 0.315 0.166 32.2% 3.9% 13.0% 36.4% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.339 0.318 0.135 30.2% 8.8% 18.1% 45.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.326 0.340 0.116 30.9% 6.7% 10.9% 51.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.376 0.374 0.186 33.3% 9.5% 16.4% 51.1% 1B $3,400 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.363 0.345 0.292 34.9% 5.4% 16.6% 30.1% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
6 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.280 0.296 0.207 33.6% 9.3% 32.2% 32.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.235 0.243 0.075 26.1% 1.6% 18.9% 42.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,100 SS $4,000
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.260 0.297 0.121 31.3% 7.9% 22.9% 40.6% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 LF $5,600
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.329 0.296 0.115 33.3% 6.9% 13.8% 31.8% C $2,000 C $2,300 C $4,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious