MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-21 03:00:38

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Arizona at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Arizona					Philadelphia
			Shelby Miller					Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -108					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.340	15	15.3%	10.2%	SP vs. Left	0.362	15	17.6%	9.5%
SP vs. Right	0.280	8	22.1%	8.8%	SP vs. Right	0.322	22	22.1%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Shelby Miller
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
					FPPG:		11.9	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		49.6	Pitcher Rank:		15
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	1	107.0	6.45	10.80	12.0%	16.0%	6.5%	44.4%	33.3%	38.9%
2016	10	84.7	5.87	7.09	14.0%	13.5%	6.5%	40.0%	37.3%	38.1%
2015	33	98.4	4.16	3.02	19.9%	8.5%	9.2%	47.7%	34.1%	26.7%

To say that Miller has been struggling this season would be putting it kindly. In ten starts, he has a 5.87 SIERA (7.09 ERA) with a walk rate (13.5%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (14%). He may have a favorable matchup against the Phillies, but he comes into the game as an underdog with the over/under set at 9.0 runs. We usually like to pick on the Phillies, but this is probably a better opportunity to pick on Miller.

Jeremy Hellickson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:
					FPPG:		28.2	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		64.7	Pitcher Rank:		8
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	96.6	4.36	5.23	19.4%	7.8%	11.2%	40.7%	32.6%	31.5%
2016	14	93.3	3.93	4.46	22.3%	6.9%	11.7%	40.9%	35.1%	32.3%
2015	27	91.8	4.14	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%

Hellickson has come back down to Earth over the last month of play, but he still owns a 3.93 SIERA on the season with a strikeout rate of 22.3%. He grades out as a mediocre pitching option in the all-day slate. While the strikeout potential is there, the Diamondbacks are a potent offense and Vegas is expecting this to be a high scoring game. Both of the pitchers in this one are easy fades, especially considering the fact that Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, and Stephen Strasburg are all pitching tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks may be tiny underdogs today, but they come into the game with the eighth highest implied run total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who hasn’t been particularly effective against batters from either side of the plate. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .362 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .322 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (14 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.157 (16 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 23.5% (26 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.46 (14 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.45 (8 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Phil Gosselin, Rickie Weeks, Welington Castillo

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia

It’s not often that the Phillies have one of the highest run projections on the schedule. They draw one of the best matchups on the board, as Shelby Miller has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In fact, in Miller’s first ten starts, he has allowed a .428 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .350 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Dare I say stack the Phillies?

• Phillies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.280 (29 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (21 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (20 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.14 (30 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.55 (6 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – Cash & GPP

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco					Pittsburgh
			Madison Bumgarner					Jeff Locke
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -180					7.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.220	3	33.8%	4.4%	SP vs. Left	0.336	8	12.3%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.275	26	25.9%	5.4%	SP vs. Right	0.332	19	17.0%	8.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$12,000	Salary:		$12,800
					FPPG:		45.6	FPPG:		25.7
					Pitcher Rating:		93.6	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	109.0	3.34	1.02	26.9%	6.0%	13.8%	40.7%	36.0%	30.7%
2016	14	106.6	3.33	1.91	28.1%	6.8%	11.7%	39.1%	39.1%	31.6%
2015	32	103.5	3.00	2.93	26.9%	4.5%	12.5%	41.7%	35.6%	27.8%

Before we get into the first game of the evening slate, let me first say congratulations to Cleveland fans. What a way to end the series and the championship draught. Also, a big congrats to Dustin Johnson, who broke a curse of his own. He took down the U.S. Open in dominating fashion on the back nine. It was a great day of sports all around.

You can look at Bumgarner in one of two ways tonight. You can be bullish on him because he is a dominant pitcher that can succeed anywhere. Or you can be bearish on him because he is facing a right-handed heavy Pirates’ lineup on the road. I’m in the first camp, but will likely have little to no exposure to Bumgarner. The reason? Clayton Kershaw. I would rather take my chances with Kershaw at home against the Nationals, at least in cash games. Bumgarner deserves consideration as the second best pitching option on the board, but it’s going to be tough to afford both Bumgarner and Kershaw on multi-pitcher sites.

Jeff Locke
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,500
					FPPG:		18.4	FPPG:		7.7
					Pitcher Rating:		44.0	Pitcher Rank:		17
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	89.8	5.65	7.26	6.9%	3.9%	6.9%	41.1%	40.2%	32.8%
2016	13	92.5	5.33	5.92	12.1%	8.5%	7.9%	46.0%	35.6%	28.9%
2015	30	92.7	4.18	4.49	17.5%	8.2%	9.0%	51.0%	24.9%	27.0%

It’s a Locke that I will not be targeting Jeff tonight. A Locke I tell you. He has not pitched well this season, posting a 5.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12.1% and a walk rate of 8.5%. His price may be at it’s cheapest point of the season, but he is still an easy fade in all league formats. Not only has he been in terrible form, but the Giants have the fifth lowest team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are large favorites tonight, but they still have the sixth lowest team total on the board. I like their matchup more than Vegas seems to, as Jeff Locke has been very hittable. Over the last two seasons, Locke has allowed a .336 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .332 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Giants may not hit many home runs, but they should be able to nickel and dime their way to a big game tonight.

• Giants Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.315 (19 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.140 (24 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 18.9% (5 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.49 (13 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.96 (15 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Buster Posey, Matt Duffy

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have the second lowest team total on the board. Even though they are a lineup that is build to mash left-handed pitching, we don’t want to make a habit of picking on Madison Bumgarner. In addition to an elite strikeout rate and a stoic demeanor on the mound, Bumgarner has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA over the last two seasons.

• Pirates Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.339 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.168 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 24.7% (29 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.61 (12 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.04 (19 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Seattle at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Seattle					Detroit
			Nathan Karns					Mike Pelfrey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA -130					10.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.299	8	26.3%	11.8%	SP vs. Left	0.373	10	11.1%	10.7%
SP vs. Right	0.321	17	20.8%	7.1%	SP vs. Right	0.327	11	12.2%	3.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Karns
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		30.9	FPPG:		15.8
					Pitcher Rating:		55.1	Pitcher Rank:		10
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	92.4	4.63	5.40	23.5%	13.0%	9.7%	40.3%	41.7%	24.7%
2016	13	94.2	4.19	4.06	24.5%	10.8%	10.3%	39.0%	37.4%	30.3%
2015	26	93.9	3.90	3.67	23.4%	9.0%	9.2%	41.9%	36.5%	34.5%

Karns hasn’t had great command over the last month of play, as evidenced by his walk rate of 13% during that stretch. The strikeouts have still been there, but the walks have led to more runs allowed and it has driving up his pitch counts. He may be a favorite tonight against the Tigers, but I am not a fan of targeting pitchers on the road against potent offenses. The Tigers are ranked eighth in team wOBA and 11th in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Mike Pelfrey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$4,400
					FPPG:		16.7	FPPG:		6.5
					Pitcher Rating:		23.2	Pitcher Rank:		20
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	97.2	5.47	3.86	9.0%	9.0%	6.0%	53.3%	27.6%	17.9%
2016	13	95.5	5.36	4.79	10.8%	9.3%	7.6%	50.4%	28.2%	29.4%
2015	30	88.8	4.59	4.26	12.0%	6.3%	5.6%	50.8%	26.4%	26.1%

Mike the “Gas Can” Pelfrey takes the mound for the Tigers tonight. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball and he hasn’t been effective against batters from either side of the play. He is a pitcher that we have been picking on all season and that’s not going to change tonight, as he squares off against a talented Mariners’ offense that is ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners trail only the Red Sox when it comes to implied run projections tonight. They get to face Mike Pelfrey, which is one of my favorite matchups. Pelfrey has a strikeout rate right around 10% and he has allowed a .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .327 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. It’s hard not to like all of the Mariners’ hitters tonight.

• Mariners Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (7 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (11 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.94 (5 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.18 (2 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Seth Smith, Adam Lind

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Detroit

The Tigers may be underdogs tonight, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot when the over/under for the game is set at 10.0 runs. Both of these offenses should be able to tee off on the opposing pitchers. Nathan Karns is a tougher matchup than Mike Pelfrey, but the splits favor the Tigers in this one. Karns is a reverse-splits pitcher and we know that the Tigers’ lineup is loaded with right-handed batters.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (8 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (11 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (22 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.74 (8 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.82 (4 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Colorado					Miami
			Jorge De La Rosa					Paul Clemens
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -120					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.318	6	26.6%	7.8%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.345	19	19.7%	10.7%	SP vs. Right

Pitcher Grind Down

Jorge De La Rosa
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$5,900
					FPPG:		17.3	FPPG:		7.3
					Pitcher Rating:		54.0	Pitcher Rank:		12
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	2	130.0	4.25	4.41	17.4%	7.3%	11.2%	46.9%	30.6%	32.0%
2016	7	98.4	4.06	7.61	23.0%	9.8%	11.2%	46.4%	32.1%	35.0%
2015	26	94.6	4.10	4.17	21.1%	10.2%	11.7%	52.0%	27.3%	32.6%

De La Rosa may have a strikeout rate of 23% this season, but that’s really all that he has going for him. Overall, he owns a 4.06 SIERA with a walk rate of 9.8% and a hard-hit contact rate of 35%. As strange as it sounds, De La Rosa actually pitches better at home in his career. We may have to take a cheap pitcher as an SP2 tonight, but De La Rosa is not on my radar in this one.

Paul Clemens
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:			Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:			FPPG:		0.0
					Pitcher Rating:		52.5	Pitcher Rank:		13

With Justin Nicolino struggling this season, the Marlins sent him down to the minors and have called up Paul Clemens. He will be making his major league debut tonight against the Rockies. He hasn’t shown much upside in the minors, posting a 4.30 ERA with a strikeout rate right around 20%. I always like to play it safe in these situations and doing so rarely comes back to bite you. I like the fact that he is favored tonight, but he is a deep GPP play at best.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies draw what I would consider a boom or bust type of matchup against Paul Clemens. Clemens is a right-handed pitcher that is making his major league debut tonight. While Marlins Park isn’t the best ballpark for offensive production, the Rockies could certainly put up some runs against the rookie. I will be looking elsewhere in cash games, but like the Rockies as one-offs or as a contrarian stack in GPPs.

• Rockies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (8 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.01 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.13 (12 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story

Stackability – GPP

Miami

The Marlins have a mediocre implied run total tonight, as they square off against Jorge De La Rosa at home. De La Rosa has typical splits for a left-handed pitcher, allowing a much higher wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. I know Giancarlo Stanton has looked lost at the plate over the last few weeks, but he is awfully tempting tonight. He has a ridiculous .404 ISO (not wOBA) against southpaws over the last two seasons.

• Marlins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (17 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.135 (25 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 22.6% (18 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.16 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.37 (11 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Adeiny Hechavarria, Martin Prado

Stackability – GPP

Chicago White Sox at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox					Boston
			Miguel Gonzalez					Steven Wright
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -200					10.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.355	17	17.4%	8.7%	SP vs. Left	0.278	6	17.1%	9.7%
SP vs. Right	0.333	12	18.4%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.289	10	20.0%	8.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Miguel Gonzalez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		20.6	FPPG:		9.9
					Pitcher Rating:		31.1	Pitcher Rank:		19
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	92.2	4.00	4.50	22.2%	7.7%	8.0%	41.8%	32.9%	30.9%
2016	8	92.1	4.64	4.74	19.2%	9.8%	9.8%	43.6%	36.1%	28.9%
2015	26	93.8	4.51	4.91	17.5%	8.2%	8.9%	40.3%	35.8%	28.6%

Gonzalez checks all of the boxes for a pitcher that we like to target hitters against. He has a strikeout rate below 20%, he walks a fair number of batters, he gives up a lot of fly balls, and he gives up a lot of home runs. That’s a recipe for success for his opponents. Unfortunately, that means that we want to stay far away from him as a pitching option in DFS.

Steven Wright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$11,200
					FPPG:		40.0	FPPG:		21.7
					Pitcher Rating:		70.0	Pitcher Rank:		6
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	112.2	4.63	1.77	18.2%	10.1%	11.1%	50.0%	28.8%	23.1%
2016	13	109.0	4.41	2.22	20.3%	9.3%	11.4%	45.0%	33.3%	25.9%
2015	9	130.9	4.60	4.09	16.8%	8.7%	9.3%	43.2%	43.2%	33.9%

Wright may be my favorite tournament play tonight on FanDuel. The masses are going to gravitate toward the big three names at the top, even though Wright has a good chance of pitching a complete game here. He is a knuckleball pitcher that is able to pitch deep into games. He is averaging 109 pitches per start this season and we have seen him throw as many as 120 pitches in a single game. He draws a favorable matchup against the White Sox and even though the game is being played in Fenway Park, you have to like his chances of picking up a win.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox come into tonight’s game with the ninth highest team total on the board. I don’t like their matchup nearly as much as Vegas, as Steven Wright has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons. The two batters that are worth a look here are Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu. Both have been red-hot at the plate, posting a .390+ wOBA over the last 14 days.

• White Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (25 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (22 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.9% (17 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.04 (25 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.42 (9 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu

Stackability – NONE

Boston

The Red Sox always seem to have the highest team total on the board when they are playing at home, but it’s certainly warranted. They draw one of the best matchups available tonight, as they square off against Miguel Gonzalez. In addition to giving up 29 home runs over the last two seasons, Gonzalez has allowed a .355 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .333 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.358 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.192 (4 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.74 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.58 (1 of 20)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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