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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 28th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-04-28 17:00:11

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Minnesota
cincinnatimlb Sal Romano minnesotamlb Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-143 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.334 36.2% 10.7% 18.8% 43.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.322 32.2% 9.9% 19.8% 27.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.300 28.7% 9.0% 16.9% 56.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.339 39.9% 10.9% 22.0% 32.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.72 4.45 19.0% 9.6% 50.4% 32.6% 21.5%
2018 5 5.26 4.78 13.8% 10.3% 50.6% 30.7% 27.3%

Romano showed some promise last season with the Reds but hasn’t been sharp through his first three starts. Compared to last season, his K% is down, his BB% is up and he’s allowing a scary 1.71 HR/9. He now has a tough task of going into Target Field against a Twins team that has some decent ISO numbers against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t have interest in a struggling Sal Romano in this ballpark and against this Twins team.

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.90 4.14 21.0% 10.1% 30.6% 36.8% 15.3%
2018 5 4.88 4.50 21.4% 12.5% 30.1% 35.1% 18.9%

Odorizzi profiles as a reverse-splits pitcher, meaning his biggest problems are typically right-handers. The good news is the Reds don’t have much right-handed power outside of Adam Duvall. I don’t mind Odorizzi as an SP2 on the early slate if you can tolerate some risk. His 21.4% K% is in-line with his career average, but he’s struggled early on with walks (12.5% BB%) and home runs (his 2.08 HR/9 is troubling). If he can avoid the long ball I think there’s some upside here, but that’s a big if.

Quick Breakdown: I view Odorizzi as an SP2 option given the opponent, but he may be more suited for tournaments given his early issues with walks and home runs.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.413 0.399 0.190 36.8% 14.8% 18.2% 48.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 LF $6,800
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.273 0.285 0.071 21.9% 3.3% 13.6% 43.4% SS $3,200 SS $3,300 SS $6,300
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.438 0.237 36.4% 18.5% 10.1% 36.9% 1B $4,200 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.298 0.294 0.204 32.0% 5.5% 27.2% 31.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,500
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.349 0.360 0.196 31.3% 12.5% 22.9% 37.7% 3B $3,100 3B $4,000 3B $6,000
6 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.372 0.344 0.230 37.7% 6.5% 20.4% 39.7% 2B $3,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,900
7 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.322 0.334 0.140 33.9% 10.3% 16.9% 42.7% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,000
8 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.333 0.359 0.268 39.9% 9.1% 23.5% 44.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,300
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.288 0.256 0.081 14.8% 9.2% 21.2% 48.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,300

Because of Odorizzi’s home run issues, I don’t mind chasing some power here if you aren’t on Odorizzi. Adam Duvall profiles as the best option, while Eugenio Suarez is also an option. Even though Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett bat left-handed, both are still options here too given their solid hard contact rates against right-handed pitchers.

Elite Plays – Adam Duvall, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.341 0.330 0.203 32.6% 10.4% 19.6% 37.9% 2B $4,100 2B $4,500 2B $9,400
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.358 0.400 0.125 39.8% 12.9% 13.3% 48.9% 1B $2,700 1B $3,500 1B $6,700
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.348 0.349 0.232 44.8% 10.5% 37.5% 39.3% 3B $3,700 3B $4,000 IF/OF $7,500
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.366 0.343 0.254 33.2% 7.1% 18.4% 39.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.352 0.372 0.273 39.5% 13.1% 25.0% 33.3% 1B $2,100 1B $2,700 1B $5,600
6 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.335 0.338 0.221 35.3% 6.6% 21.0% 31.7% SS $3,700 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,700
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.356 0.334 0.216 36.9% 9.6% 16.4% 41.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,700
8 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.316 0.339 0.144 29.6% 12.6% 20.7% 40.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 LF $5,600
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.301 0.313 0.138 34.3% 12.0% 30.2% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,800

I don’t hate the idea of a Twins stack against Romano. The handedness of the hitters is less important to me, but moreso the power of the batters. I generally target Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano against left-handed pitchers but this is a still a solid spot for both. Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar and Logan Morrison also stand out as nice plays, whether as a one-off or as part of a stack. I’m generally not a Joe Mauer guy and would rather play Logan Morrison for his power upside.

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler, Logan Morrison, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Kansas City
whitesoxmlb Carson Fulmer kansascitymlb Trevor Oaks
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.341 21.3% 16.0% 17.0% 32.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.402 30.3% 8.5% 19.2% 32.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

Carson Fulmer
carson-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.59 3.86 18.8% 12.9% 28.8% 20.9% 19.4%
2018 4 5.17 6.00 17.2% 11.5% 36.7% 31.7% 16.7%

This is the first game of a Saturday double-header, so keep that in mind. Fulmer is coming off a nice six-inning, two-run performance against the Mariners but there’s nothing in his major league numbers that make me interested in rostering him. I imagine some may see his last outing and have some interest because he’s facing a weak Royals offense, but Fulmer continues to deal with control issues (he has a career 12.5% BB%) and possesses an average strikeout rate. While I understand the matchup may seem enticing, I’d rather look elsewhere for an SP2 that I have more faith in.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer isn’t a pitcher I’m interested in despite the attractive matchup.

Trevor Oaks
travis-oaks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Oaks will be making his major league debut but isn’t in the player pool, so we don’t need to worry about using him.

Quick Breakdown: Oaks isn’t in the player pool.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.272 0.265 0.136 26.8% 3.4% 27.0% 53.2% SS $3,200 SS $4,000 SS $7,800
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.329 0.300 0.158 26.4% 6.3% 19.7% 47.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 2B $6,300
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.364 0.369 0.240 40.3% 4.7% 16.6% 45.4% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $8,400
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.300 0.316 0.244 42.0% 5.3% 39.3% 40.5% 3B $3,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,700
5 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.331 0.345 0.199 37.1% 6.6% 26.4% 43.1% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,700
6 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.374 0.382 0.257 45.2% 14.2% 34.1% 38.6% 2B $4,100 2B $4,600 2B $8,100
7 Trayce Thompson RIGHT 0.218 0.283 0.143 35.0% 7.9% 39.5% 25.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 CF $5,800
8 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.310 0.300 0.174 29.1% 4.2% 23.3% 52.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 CF $5,900
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.206 0.220 0.091 24.7% 5.6% 37.9% 40.8% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,900

Trevor Oaks isn’t a strikeout pitcher. In Triple-A this season, he has just 11 strikeouts through 23.1 innings. He does have amazing control and a groundball rate in the 50%-60% range, so he’s going to generate a ton of ground balls. In cash games it may be safe to limit your exposure to the White Sox since we don’t know how Oaks will fare in his major league debut. In tournaments, I don’t hate the idea of a White Sox stack and hope Oaks is shaky in his debut. This is likely a spot where I’m either doing a full stack in tournaments or just avoiding a massive groundball rookie we don’t know much about yet. Yoan Moncada would be my main target since Oaks is a righty and Moncada bats better from the left side.

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Matt Davidson, Nicky Delmonico, Yolmer Sanchez

Stackability – ORANGE

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.323 0.325 0.091 28.9% 7.8% 17.9% 47.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 CF $5,800
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.320 0.319 0.149 30.9% 4.6% 14.0% 37.9% 2B $3,300 2B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.368 0.378 0.286 35.6% 6.5% 15.2% 31.0% 3B $4,200 3B $4,500 3B $8,400
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.333 0.340 0.226 37.3% 3.1% 18.7% 34.1% C $3,100 C $3,300 C $6,500
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.362 0.382 0.281 42.6% 13.0% 24.4% 27.8% 1B $2,500 1B $3,300 1B $7,300
6 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.238 0.271 0.051 32.8% 13.8% 31.9% 44.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 RF $6,700
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.266 0.290 0.121 32.9% 7.3% 25.4% 41.1% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 LF $5,500
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.278 0.282 0.125 30.6% 6.6% 20.8% 45.9% 2B $2,200 2B $2,400 2B $4,900
9 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.254 0.273 0.099 27.2% 2.4% 15.3% 41.1% SS $2,400 SS $2,800 SS $6,000

While I don’t love Carson Fulmer, I also don’t love this Royals offense. This is also the first game of a double-header, so we may not get all the regular starters in this day game. I generally don’t love the idea of stacking the Royals because the bottom of the lineup is so weak, but I’m listing their stackability as Orange because Fulmer isn’t a great pitcher. I consider Mike Moustakas an elite option here, while Whit Merrifield, Lucas Duda and Salvador Perez are options if you need a one-off. Just keep an eye out on whether these starters are in the lineup for this day game. I could imagine maybe someone like Sal Perez only plays one of the games due to the fact he’s returning from an injury.

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas

Secondary Plays – Lucas Duda, Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Milwaukee Chicago Cubs
milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra cubsmlb Jose Quintana
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-160
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.343 28.4% 13.5% 21.2% 33.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.264 26.8% 3.9% 26.9% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.363 35.9% 12.5% 22.1% 37.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.335 35.9% 9.3% 24.9% 44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 5.23 5.12 21.3% 13.7% 33.5% 33.5% 18.5%
2018 3 4.04 0.56 23.4% 9.4% 46.2% 27.5% 25.0%

Guerra has been fantastic early on, allowing just one earned run and striking out 15 batters through 16 innings. Most impressive is that he hasn’t allowed a home run yet. I’m a bit hesitant to say this is real considering he allowed a whopping 18 home runs last season in just 70.1 innings. I don’t think I can get myself to do it, but I can somewhat see the appeal of using Guerra as an SP2 and loading up on bats, hoping his dominance continues for another start. I personally think he’s pitching a bit over his head.

Quick Breakdown: Guerra has been fantastic through his first three starts but faces a tougher task against a Cubs offense. He makes some sense as an SP2 in tournaments if you want to load up on bats, but just know he could come crashing back to reality at any moment.

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.80 4.15 26.2% 7.7% 44.8% 32.6% 18.2%
2018 4 5.10 7.78 17.4% 12.0% 45.2% 44.6% 12.3%

Quintana’s overall numbers have not been pretty, and he has an ugly 5.03 BB/9 ratio through his first four starts. The silver lining, if there is one, is that he did throw a six-inning, six-strikeout shutout against this Brewers team three starts ago. The strikeout rate is close to his career average so he’s still whiffing batters, it’s just been the control issues that have been alarming. So while I do have some slight concerns about the walks, I consider him viable in all formats factoring in his history against this team and his price point.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana is viable in all formats. I prefer him in tournaments but his price point puts him in-play as an SP2 in cash games as well.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.377 0.356 0.216 37.9% 10.0% 12.4% 37.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 CF $8,100
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.325 0.331 0.135 31.4% 6.7% 19.6% 57.1% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 CF $9,400
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.365 0.415 0.274 47.6% 12.1% 9.8% 46.6% OF $3,400 1B/OF $4,400 LF $8,100
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.306 0.253 0.187 28.2% 7.4% 26.3% 45.9% 3B $4,100 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.316 0.285 0.138 32.7% 3.7% 17.6% 46.7% OF $2,300 2B/OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,600
6 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.392 0.367 0.222 52.4% 10.5% 27.1% 39.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.290 0.315 0.076 40.5% 4.4% 23.7% 35.4% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $5,100
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.258 0.251 0.052 28.0% 8.8% 18.4% 55.7% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 SS $4,600
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $6,800 P $6,600 P $13,100

My primary focus would be the right-handed bats of Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain and Jesus Aguilar, but I’m considering them secondary plays on this slate. Quintana has had success against them in the past so I’m not viewing them as elite options against a pitcher of Quintana’s caliber.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.298 0.257 0.132 27.7% 3.3% 20.0% 51.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,400
2 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.343 0.304 0.235 31.0% 5.7% 28.2% 47.3% 2B $4,000 2B $4,700 2B $9,100
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.397 0.369 0.244 32.2% 13.1% 19.5% 38.8% 3B $4,400 3B $5,000 IF/OF $10,200
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.376 0.407 0.217 34.4% 13.6% 12.9% 40.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.347 0.324 0.204 33.6% 7.8% 24.2% 51.5% C $3,300 C $4,000 IF/OF $7,700
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.364 0.374 0.291 37.6% 11.8% 28.7% 41.0% OF $4,100 OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.282 0.290 0.155 32.9% 6.4% 22.5% 39.2% SS $2,500 SS $3,400 SS $6,500
8 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.327 0.349 0.148 27.8% 10.3% 10.8% 45.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,700
9 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.065 0.071 0.000 0.0% 3.2% 51.6% 66.7% P $7,400 P $7,600 P $14,700

Guerra has shown some reverse splits in his career, meaning I’m more likely to roster right-handed bats against him. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant (if back in the lineup) and Willson Contreras stand out to me as the best options, while Anthony Rizzo and Albert Almora (if leading off) are more secondary options. I’m hesitant to give the green light on a Cubs stack in the event Guerra can keep up his early season dominance, so this is likely more of a spot where I’d use one-offs as opposed to a full stack.

Elite Plays – Javier Baez, Kris Bryant (if back in the lineup), Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Albert Almora (if leading off), Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Arizona Washington
arizonamlb Patrick Corbin washingtonmlb Jeremy Hellickson
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-113 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.262 25.6% 6.3% 30.9% 54.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.352 32.5% 7.6% 13.8% 31.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.320 33.1% 7.3% 21.9% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.344 30.6% 6.0% 14.4% 39.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $22,000
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.12 4.03 21.6% 7.4% 50.4% 31.6% 18.5%
2018 5 1.93 1.89 39.3% 4.9% 53.7% 32.4% 23.5%

What an amazing start that Patrick Corbin has had. Through 33.1 innings, Corbin has struck out 48 batters and an insane 39.3% K%. He’s generating tons of soft contact and allowing a career-low 1.62 BB/9. It’s definitely possible he’ll regress closer to his career averages at some point, but he’s been playing so well we have to take this breakout seriously. The Nationals do have some solid batters but Corbin will hold the platoon-advantage against their best hitter, Bryce Harper, which does help. If Corbin can navigate around Ryan Zimmerman, he could be in for another solid outing.

Quick Breakdown: Corbin is my favorite pitcher for tournaments on the early slate and viable in all formats.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 5.37 5.43 13.8% 6.8% 34.9% 32.0% 19.9%
2018 2 4.19 4.50 19.1% 7.1% 46.7% 22.6% 38.7%

Hellickson’s production took a huge nosedive last season where his strikeout rate fell to a career low and his home run rate rose to a career high. He’s been serviceable through his first two starts and this Diamondbacks team isn’t one I fear, but I also don’t trust Hellickson either.

Quick Breakdown: While the Diamondbacks aren’t a scary offense, I question the upside of Jeremy Hellickson and would rather look elsewhere for my pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.356 0.324 0.166 37.1% 7.9% 17.0% 52.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 RF $8,400
2 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.300 0.322 0.119 25.1% 9.0% 14.1% 43.8% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $3,400 SS $6,700
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.388 0.385 0.248 41.5% 13.9% 24.8% 46.8% 1B $4,500 1B $5,100 1B $9,700
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.340 0.343 0.188 36.9% 8.6% 19.6% 42.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,900 CF $9,000
5 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.326 0.337 0.168 41.1% 12.2% 21.4% 36.0% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,700
6 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.259 0.253 0.146 31.0% 7.1% 24.1% 43.1% SS $3,100 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.368 0.418 0.205 54.6% 16.8% 33.8% 36.6% C $2,500 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.306 0.287 0.121 18.4% 7.5% 14.0% 44.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.238 0.223 0.045 21.2% 14.0% 28.1% 77.8% P $10,000 P $11,500 P $22,000

Hellickson hasn’t shown extreme splits to either side of the plate so my main interest in the Diamondbacks would be their best hitters: Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. Alex Avila is interesting if you need a punt catcher and he’ll hold the platoon advantage against Hellickson, while Daniel Descalso has been batting fifth lately and offers some appeal as a punt. Overall, this isn’t a spot I want to heavily stack but I’m okay with one-off pieces if I need to fill out my roster.

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock

Secondary Plays – Alex Avila, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.292 0.292 0.081 27.2% 8.8% 15.3% 53.0% SS $3,900 SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,300
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.357 0.399 0.164 35.9% 8.7% 18.9% 48.9% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,600
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.350 0.326 0.148 31.5% 11.7% 25.1% 50.9% OF $4,600 OF $5,200 RF $9,700
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.420 0.405 0.305 44.1% 9.9% 15.8% 44.9% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
5 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.355 0.313 0.224 35.1% 4.9% 32.0% 46.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,500
6 Moises Sierra RIGHT 0.105 0.135 0.000 18.2% 0.0% 35.3% 90.9% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 RF $5,800
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.296 0.284 0.126 18.0% 9.3% 27.8% 42.6% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Adrian Sanchez RIGHT 0.303 0.348 0.050 16.7% 0.0% 13.6% 58.8% 2B $2,000 2B/SS $2,200 SS $3,900
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.097 0.228 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7% P $5,600 P $4,600 P $9,000

I don’t want to go out of my way to pick on Patrick Corbin. If I did, it would be through the right-handed batters of Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Taylor and Howie Kendrick. I will list Bryce Harper as a secondary option too because he’s Bryce Harper and his ownership may be a bit lowered in tournaments due to the fact he’s up against Corbin and it will be a lefty-on-lefty matchup. Harper is 3-for-7 lifetime against Corbin with two doubles so it’s not an impossible matchup for him to overcome.

Elite Plays – Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP), Howie Kendrick, Michael Taylor

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers San Francisco
ladodgersmlb Walker Buehler sanfranciscomlb Chris Stratton
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-115 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.235 0.213 10.0% 17.4% 39.1% 70.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.331 30.4% 12.5% 16.7% 38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.422 0.384 40.7% 16.7% 19.1% 74.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.330 32.5% 7.6% 23.4% 43.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Walker Buehler
walker-buehler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.47 7.71 27.3% 18.2% 66.7% 20.8% 20.8%
2018 1 3.43 0.00 23.8% 14.3% 84.6% 53.9% 15.4%

Buehler showed tremendous strikeout stuff in his 2018 debut, whiffing five batters through five innings. It was also telling to see Dave Roberts let Buehler go five innings and throw 89 pitches after seeing limited pitch counts in the minor leagues. Pitch count is always going to be an issue with him given Dave Roberts’ tendencies to pull his starters early, but the strikeout ability is real. He did stay true to his name and walk three batters in his debut (one was to the opposing pitcher), and he does have 11 walks through his first 14.1 innings in the majors, so that’s something worth monitoring. He’s incredibly cheap at $5,500 on FanDuel but I just can’t use him as my pitcher on a one-pitcher site due to his walk issues and inability to go deep into games. I’m more open to him as an SP2 on two-pitcher sites.

Quick Breakdown: Buehler has appeal as an SP2 on two-pitcher sites because of his strikeout upside, but be careful with his high walk rate and potential limited pitch count under Dave Roberts.

Chris Stratton
christopher-stratton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 4.83 3.68 19.9% 10.9% 42.8% 28.4% 21.0%
2018 5 4.39 2.32 20.0% 8.3% 38.1% 37.7% 11.8%

This will be the third start against the Dodgers for Chris Stratton already, so both sides probably already hate seeing each other. Stratton didn’t fare well in either start against the Dodgers, going just 5.1 and 5 innings in those starts. The good news is that Stratton is coming off three impressive consecutive starts against the Padres, Diamondbacks and Nationals, so he’s in decent form. Stratton is pretty deceiving in that he doesn’t overpower anyone, but he also does enough not to get blown up.

Quick Breakdown: On a normal slate I wouldn’t even consider Stratton, but he has some appeal as an SP2 here pitching at home. Since this is a double-header make sure to keep an eye on the lineups and whether he faces a watered-down Dodgers team.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.354 0.338 0.209 33.0% 8.3% 24.9% 40.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.350 0.391 0.160 42.0% 12.4% 19.8% 43.2% SS $3,400 SS $4,000 SS $7,300
3 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.345 0.321 0.242 39.0% 7.9% 25.9% 40.5% C $3,600 C $3,800 C $7,700
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.384 0.353 0.303 42.4% 12.1% 26.5% 38.2% 1B $3,800 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
5 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.338 0.348 0.214 36.0% 4.2% 23.9% 47.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,300
6 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.363 0.369 0.240 35.2% 9.3% 19.2% 45.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
7 Chase Utley LEFT 0.327 0.332 0.162 36.6% 10.1% 15.2% 45.4% 2B $2,500 2B $2,900 2B $5,700
8 Kyle Farmer RIGHT 0.320 0.303 0.107 22.7% 6.5% 19.4% 33.3% 3B $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,700
9 Walker Buehler RIGHT P $5,500 P $7,100 P $14,900

It might sound odd but I don’t want to stack against Chris Stratton. This is not a great ballpark for power and I don’t think Stratton is as bad as people may think he is. My priorities would be the left-handed bats here of Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Yasmani Grandal. Keep an eye out on Matt Kemp – he left Friday’s game early with a tight quad so we may see someone like Joc Pederson draw the start, which would be another left-handed bat to consider.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Corey Seager

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.322 0.304 0.111 28.9% 13.5% 21.7% 43.2% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 LF $4,800
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.344 0.333 0.159 26.4% 8.2% 8.2% 41.9% 2B $2,800 2B $2,900 2B $5,500
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.326 0.340 0.157 34.6% 10.8% 18.6% 42.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 RF $6,600
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.339 0.350 0.110 30.5% 8.8% 11.7% 47.0% C $2,800 1B/C $3,700 C $7,600
5 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.391 0.419 0.287 42.1% 16.0% 22.8% 24.5% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,500
6 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.314 0.315 0.162 34.9% 4.5% 16.0% 42.8% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
7 Mac Williamson RIGHT 0.304 0.260 0.212 37.8% 7.0% 29.6% 53.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 RF $5,500
8 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.299 0.316 0.149 34.8% 7.0% 22.1% 47.2% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,800
9 Chris Stratton RIGHT 0.176 0.141 0.000 15.4% 0.0% 18.8% 91.7% P $7,000 P $6,900 P $14,900

Buehler remains one of the top prospects in baseball and I don’t necessarily want to use many Giants bats against him. While he can be prone to walks and get into trouble, the Giants don’t have many bats I’m interested in that can make him pay. I don’t hate the idea of using Buster Posey, Brandon Belt or Brandon Crawford as a one-off, but Buehler’s stuff looks legit and this ballpark isn’t great for power.

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS