MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 27th
by
Ryan138 Last Updated
2016-08-28 02:15:14 Jump to Page 1 2 3
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
| Baltimore | NY Yankees |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| NYY -115 | 9.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.302 | 6 | 30.1% | 18.4% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.391 | 6 | 36.7% | 28.2% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.332 | 6 | 28.2% | 25.3% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.254 | 2 | 32.8% | 27.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Dylan Bundy |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $5,100 |
| FPPG: | 15.3 | FPPG: | 7.8 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 53.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 18 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 90.7 | 3.96 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 43.3% | 44.4% | 27.8% |
| 2016 | 8 | 173.4 | 4.11 | 3.33 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 35.5% | 44.9% | 29.2% |
Bundy has been solid over his first eight starts this year. He comes into this game with a 4.10 SIERA and a 21.7% strikeout rate. The matchup today is decent against the Yankees, who rank 23rd in wOBA and 18th in ISO against right-handed pitching, yet Vegas thinks both these teams will be high scoring as the total is set at nine and the line is basically a pick em. The early slate does not have a ton of great plays, making Dylan usable in tournaments, but with some risk attached.
| Chad Green |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $5,300 |
| FPPG: | 22.9 | FPPG: | 12.6 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 69.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 9 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 3 | 118.7 | 3.58 | 1.86 | 29.1% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 39.6% | 33.3% | 29.2% |
| 2016 | 6 | 115.8 | 3.27 | 3.66 | 27.6% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 45.2% | 31.7% | 34.6% |
Green has been decent in his six starts this year. He holds a 3.66 ERA (3.26 SIERA) and a high 27.6% strikeout rate. More importantly, he has gone 86, 104, and 99 pitches in his last three games respectively. He makes a tournament play only today against an Orioles squad who is ranked second in wOBA against righties. His price puts him into play today, as he is cheap across the industry and does have upside needed to win a tournament.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Green has really struggled (in a small sample size) against lefties, as he has allowed a .391 wOBA to them in six appearances this year. The Orioles are in the middle of the league today in totals, and if you want to attack Green, use guys like and Hyun-Soo Kim.
- Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (2 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.202 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.73 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (14 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.174 | 0.246 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,000 |
| 2 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.123 | 0.331 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,500 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.246 | 0.314 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B/SS | $4,800 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.227 | 0.393 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,800 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.384 | 0.312 | 0.493 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,700 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.226 | 0.342 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,900 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.254 | 0.403 | 3B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,100 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.121 | 0.316 | SS | $2,300 | SS | $2,900 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.154 | 0.107 | 0.219 | C | $2,000 | C | $3,100 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.329 | 0.199 | 0.340 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim,
Stackability – ORANGE
NY Yankees
Bundy has been a bit of a reverse splits pitcher in his early career. He is allowing a .332 wOBA to righties while keeping lefties to a .302 wOBA. The Yankees have the 10th-highest projected run total at 4.59, putting a couple cheap choices into play, especially , who is playing some unbelievable baseball.
- Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (23 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.59 (10 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.138 | 0.181 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,000 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.108 | 0.232 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,000 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.567 | 0.473 | 0.621 | C | $3,400 | C | $4,600 |
| 4 | | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.258 | 0.248 | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $2,900 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.150 | 0.354 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,700 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.140 | 0.372 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,600 |
| 7 | | SWITCH | 0.305 | 0.123 | 0.304 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,700 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.269 | 0.335 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,800 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.197 | 0.640 | 2B | $2,400 | 3B/SS | $2,900 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.353 | 0.206 | 0.365 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Colorado at Washington – 1:05 PM ET
| Colorado | Washington |
| Jorge De La Rosa | | |
| LEFT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| WAS -155 | 9.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.317 | 6 | 31.3% | 22.9% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.317 | 1 | 39.3% | 26.8% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.338 | 28 | 32.6% | 18.1% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.345 | 2 | 20.8% | 19.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jorge De La Rosa |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $4,600 |
| FPPG: | 22.1 | FPPG: | 9.8 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 35.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 28 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 99.5 | 5.42 | 3.13 | 13.5% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 47.4% | 34.5% | 35.6% |
| 2016 | 19 | 98.3 | 4.95 | 5.07 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 48.0% | 32.8% | 31.8% |
| 2015 | 26 | 94.6 | 4.10 | 4.17 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 52.0% | 27.3% | 32.6% |
De La Rosa is not a play, regardless of whether he is playing in Coors or not. He sports a 4.94 SIERA and low 16.7% strikeout rate. The matchup is very tough against a Nationals squad ranked sixth in wOBA and first in ISO against left-handed pitching. He is not in play in any format.
| A.J. Cole |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $6,300 |
| FPPG: | 33.0 | FPPG: | 19.6 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 69.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 10 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 1 | 108.0 | 3.71 | 5.14 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 27.8% | 61.1% | 27.8% |
| 2016 | 1 | 108.0 | 3.71 | 5.14 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 27.8% | 61.1% | 27.8% |
| 2015 | 1 | 157.0 | 3.27 | 5.79 | 20.5% | 2.3% | 8.3% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 32.4% |
Cole made his first start of the year last week and went seven innings and allowed four earned runs while striking out eight Orioles batters. His minor league numbers left a lot to be desired, as he had just a 4.26 ERA in 22 starts. He did flash an eight-strikeout performance, but that may be a bit higher than expected as his minor league % was around 20. While he is cheap, if I was paying down for a pitcher with some risk attached, I like Green slightly better in the afternoon games.
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Colorado is no the same offense away from Coors as it is at home. Vegas agrees, as they have the 10th-lowest total of the entire day at just 4.18 runs. The top four batters in their lineup are in play today, but I see them as more one off plug in type plays.
- Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.340 (3 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.343 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.187 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.29 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (21 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.208 | 0.596 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,100 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.399 | 0.244 | 0.352 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,900 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.302 | 0.333 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $4,600 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.405 | 0.284 | 0.248 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,600 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.163 | 0.203 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $2,700 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.127 | 0.258 | SS | $3,000 | 1B/SS | $2,900 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.168 | 0.776 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,900 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.247 | 0.050 | 0.224 | SS | $2,400 | 2B/SS | $2,300 |
| 9 | Jorge De La Rosa | LEFT | 0.113 | 0.000 | 0.293 | P | $6,200 | P | $4,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.320 | 0.172 | 0.365 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Washington
The Nationals squad is fully in play today, as they have the fifth-highest team total of the entire day at 4.82 runs. De La Rosa has struggled from both sides of the plate this year, giving up a .343+ wOBA from both sides of the plate. Stack away against Jorge this afternoon.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.334 (6 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.336 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.204 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.3% (10 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.78 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.83 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.82 (5 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.265 | 0.064 | 0.415 | OF | $3,900 | 2B/OF | $4,700 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.400 | 0.287 | 0.354 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,400 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.171 | 0.407 | 2B | $4,300 | 1B/2B | $5,000 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.222 | 0.475 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,800 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.112 | 0.421 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,600 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.209 | 0.189 | C | $3,200 | C | $3,700 |
| 7 | | SWITCH | 0.313 | 0.202 | 0.249 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $4,000 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.277 | 0.058 | 0.249 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,300 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | | P | $5,500 | P | $6,300 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.294 | 0.147 | 0.345 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – GREEN
Minnesota at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET
| Minnesota | Toronto |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| TOR -200 | 9.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.308 | 12 | 29.8% | 15.1% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.314 | 11 | 32.3% | 19.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.299 | 14 | 28.0% | 22.1% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.295 | 9 | 29.3% | 19.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ervin Santana |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $9,700 |
| FPPG: | 28.9 | FPPG: | 15.1 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 50.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 20 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 105.0 | 3.34 | 1.78 | 24.6% | 3.6% | 11.8% | 44.9% | 33.7% | 30.6% |
| 2016 | 23 | 97.4 | 4.28 | 3.39 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 42.5% | 36.6% | 29.5% |
| 2015 | 17 | 98.7 | 4.43 | 4.00 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 40.9% | 37.6% | 28.1% |
What has happened to recently has gone a bit under the radar. Over his last ten starts, he has only allowed more than two earned runs once (three against the Indians), and during that span, he has lowered what was a 5+ ERA in June to what sits at just 3.33 now. His SIERA over the last 30 days shows that improvement, as he has put up a 3.34 SIERA (1.78 ERA) to go along with a solid 24.6% strikeout rate. The problem today, of course, today is the extremely difficult matchup against the Blue Jays, who could put Santana right back into that early season funk. Even with his recent success, the matchup makes him difficult to play in formats other than tournaments, especially since his price has gone up considerably.
| Marcus Stroman |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $9,100 |
| FPPG: | 30.2 | FPPG: | 15.3 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 80.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 99.4 | 2.40 | 2.78 | 31.5% | 3.9% | 10.7% | 58.0% | 23.5% | 36.1% |
| 2016 | 25 | 96.7 | 3.50 | 4.47 | 20.1% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 60.2% | 20.6% | 32.3% |
| 2015 | 4 | 93.3 | 3.28 | 1.67 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 64.1% | 17.9% | 21.8% |
Stroman is the heaviest favorite on the early slate today at -185. He has had a great season as he holds a SIERA of 3.49 and a decent 20.1% strikeout rate, and he has been even better recently, as his SIERA sits at 2.40 over his last 30 days to go along with a 31.5% strikeout rate. As the biggest favorite, he will be a popular afternoon cash game play and for good reason as he is the top play in the early slate.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Stroman has pitched very well this year and now gets a Twins offense that comes in with a sub-4.00 run total in Rogers Centre, which is not something we see a ton. They are my least favorite offense of the early slate, unless you want to be completely contrarian as Stroman should be a popular play.
- Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (14 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.337 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.52 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.92 (23 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.222 | 0.482 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,500 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.120 | 0.289 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B/SS | $3,000 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.121 | 0.289 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,700 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.302 | 0.169 | 0.283 | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,000 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.364 | 0.265 | 0.240 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,100 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.246 | 0.197 | OF | $3,400 | 3B/OF | $3,600 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.310 | 0.190 | 0.276 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,100 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.129 | 0.315 | C | $2,900 | C | $2,500 |
| 9 | | SWITCH | 0.251 | 0.085 | 0.083 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.318 | 0.172 | 0.273 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays –
Stackability – RED
Toronto
Even with Santana’s improvements, Vegas has the Blue Jays putting up the second-highest run total of the day at 5.08 runs. They are a solid offense to target in all formats, as they are coming off a 15-run drubbing of the Twins last night.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (9 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.1% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.82 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.08 (2 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.275 | | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,100 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.393 | 0.263 | 0.312 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $4,300 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.289 | 0.438 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $4,500 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.189 | 0.243 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,300 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.197 | 0.578 | C | $3,300 | C | $4,000 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.181 | 0.468 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,800 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.146 | 0.356 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,500 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.277 | 0.091 | 0.136 | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,400 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.107 | 0.396 | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $2,500 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.366 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability -%{color:green}*GREEN*%
Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers – 4:05 PM ET
| Chicago Cubs | LA Dodgers |
| | | |
| RIGHT | LEFT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| CHC -110 | 8.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.311 | 15 | 33.0% | 22.3% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.291 | 3 | 26.7% | 36.4% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.292 | 26 | 31.4% | 22.9% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.343 | 2 | 32.1% | 21.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jason Hammel |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $8,600 |
| FPPG: | 26.7 | FPPG: | 13.8 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 61.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 15 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 98.2 | 4.42 | 2.08 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 46.6% | 34.1% | 40.9% |
| 2016 | 24 | 88.9 | 4.31 | 3.07 | 20.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 44.0% | 36.7% | 31.0% |
| 2015 | 31 | 88.7 | 3.45 | 3.74 | 24.2% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 38.3% | 37.2% | 32.9% |
Hammel got roughed up pretty bad in his last start, which is the usual for many who venture into Coors. He has been consistently good this year, as he has a 3.07 ERA (4.30 SIERA) with a 20.6% strikeout rate. The SIERA shows some regression is in order, and today, he takes on the Dodgers, who rank eighth in wOBA and ISO against righties on the year. I like Stroman a good amount more in the afternoon slate, but Hammel is in play as a small favorite.
| Julio Urias |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $6,500 |
| FPPG: | 25.4 | FPPG: | 12.8 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 65.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 13 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 2 | 150.0 | 3.95 | 2.16 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 52.8% | 18.9% | 27.8% |
| 2016 | 11 | 96.6 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 24.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 43.0% | 28.5% | 31.1% |
Urias has been solid in his rookie campaign this season. He holds a 3.90 SIERA and a 24.6% strikeout rate. Of course, today’s issue is the matchup against one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball in the Cubs, who rank first in wOBA and third in ISO against lefties. He is too risky today to use over Stroman for cash, or even some of the cheaper plays for tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are slight favorites today in this game with a total of 8.5 runs. Their offense is always capable of putting up runs in a hurry with the home run ball and are another solid one off offense to play today.
- Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.349 (1 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.344 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.192 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.87 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.13 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (17 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | SWITCH | 0.376 | 0.164 | 0.321 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,300 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.393 | 0.265 | 0.498 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B/OF | $5,400 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.208 | 0.369 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,500 |
| 4 | | SWITCH | 0.386 | 0.179 | 0.371 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,200 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.197 | 0.475 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $4,100 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.299 | 0.093 | 0.210 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $2,800 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.142 | 0.331 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,300 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.292 | 0.127 | 0.280 | C | $2,700 | C | $3,000 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.499 | P | $8,100 | P | $8,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.326 | 0.153 | 0.373 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE
LA Dodgers
Hammel has kept righties to a wOBA of .270 on the season but has allowed a .325 wOBA to lefties. The Dodgers have a moderate 4.19 projected team run total on the day and are not an offense I will be actively attacking.
- Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (8 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.352 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.9% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.61 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (20 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.143 | 0.412 | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $4,000 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.411 | 0.231 | 0.531 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $5,200 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.236 | 0.409 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,600 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.363 | 0.210 | 0.456 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,800 |
| 5 | | SWITCH | 0.341 | 0.225 | 0.294 | C | $2,700 | C | $3,700 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.180 | 0.231 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,300 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.359 | 0.235 | 0.397 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,900 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.132 | 0.394 | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/OF | $3,000 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.293 | P | $7,700 | P | $6,500 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.329 | 0.177 | 0.380 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
LA Angels at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET
| LA Angels | Detroit |
| | | |
| LEFT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| DET -230 | 9.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.367 | 6 | 30.3% | 14.2% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.260 | 4 | 29.7% | 16.5% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.367 | 11 | 31.1% | 17.5% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.289 | 8 | 29.9% | 25.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Brett Oberholtzer |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $4,000 |
| FPPG: | 8.1 | FPPG: | 3.6 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 29.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 29 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 0 | 0.0 | 4.68 | 6.23 | 15.5% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 41.9% | 37.2% | 34.1% |
| 2016 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.48 | 5.27 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 44.1% | 36.6% | 32.8% |
| 2015 | 8 | 81.9 | 4.81 | 4.46 | 15.8% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 48.8% | 33.6% | 27.8% |
Oberholzer gets the start today, and this Tigers squad has to be licking their chops. There is a lot of red and yellow above today. He is not in play in any format, as he will at best pitch three or four innings today. Just move on.
| Michael Fulmer |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $10,500 |
| FPPG: | 35.1 | FPPG: | 19.0 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 71.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 7 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 99.6 | 3.84 | 3.00 | 16.9% | 2.2% | 8.6% | 50.9% | 28.3% | 26.6% |
| 2016 | 20 | 95.5 | 3.95 | 2.58 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 50.6% | 29.3% | 29.8% |
Fulmer was lit up against the Red Sox in his last start, yet he has been solid over the course of his rookie year. He has a 3.94 SIERA and 20.7% strikeout rate as he takes on an Angels squad that is ranked 19th in wOBA and 25th in ISO against right-handed pitching. His price is much more usable at FanDuel tonight, and he should easily be in line for the all important win putting him in play in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
This Angels offense begins and ends with , as he continues to have blue boxes next to his name over the course of the season. Fulmer has kept batters to a wOBA of sub .289 from both sides of the plate on the year, making the Angels an easy offense to avoid, other than Trout.
- Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.297 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.139 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.8% (1 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.69 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.75 (25 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.157 | 0.278 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $2,900 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.416 | 0.277 | 0.402 | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,200 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.198 | 0.260 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,600 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.196 | 0.131 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,500 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.069 | 0.242 | SS | $2,100 | SS | $2,200 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.286 | 0.318 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,200 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.168 | 0.229 | C | $2,500 | C | $2,800 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.281 | 0.154 | 0.303 | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $2,300 |
| 9 | | SWITCH | 0.290 | 0.115 | 0.294 | SS | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,400 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.327 | 0.180 | 0.273 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays –
Stackability – RED
Detroit
This Detroit offense is one of the top to target tonight, as they have the highest projected run total against a bad lefty. They are stack-worthy in all formats and should put up a crooked number against Oberholtzer, who has allowed a .391 wOBA to righties on the year.
- Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (15 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.329 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.168 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.7% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.82 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.25 (1 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.182 | 0.194 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $4,300 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.113 | 0.392 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,400 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.200 | 0.324 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,400 |
| 4 | | SWITCH | 0.358 | 0.147 | 0.360 | C | $3,700 | 1B | $4,700 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.397 | 0.278 | 0.546 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,200 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.143 | 0.284 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,100 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.380 | 0.268 | 0.378 | C | $2,900 | C | $4,100 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.046 | 0.224 | 3B | $2,300 | 3B | $2,700 |
| 9 | | SWITCH | 0.250 | 0.051 | 0.348 | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.340 | 0.159 | 0.339 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , , ,
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – GREEN
Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums
Jump to Page 1 2 3