MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-30 01:53:40

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								NY Yankees
			Blake Snell							Caleb Smith
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-150							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.295	32.4%	13.6%	27.2%	54.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.392	0.256	11.1%	0.0%	30.8%	44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.333	32.7%	13.0%	21.4%	34.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.268	0.363	23.1%	11.1%	16.7%	38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	19	4.53	3.54	24.4%	12.7%	36.5%	31.4%	22.2%
	2017	12	5.37	4.86	19.7%	13.6%	40.0%	34.4%	21.0%
	L30	4	5.11	5.14	23.3%	14.4%	35.8%	32.1%	25.0%

Seth was a late scratch today, so I’m getting the rare weekend start. If you are tired of hearing me ramble, I apologize. Anyway, seeing how I am a late fill in, this is going to be a slimmed down version. We have five early games on the schedule, so let’s hop right into them.

There was a lot of chatter about Snell’s improved command when he was called back up from the minors, but we’ve seen more of the same from him. In his last five starts, he has a SIERA over 5.00 with a walk rate of 14%. You can’t get away with walking batters against the Yankees, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road, Snell is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Caleb Smith
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	1	3.79	8.10	22.6%	6.5%	40.9%	18.2%	13.6%
	L30	1	3.82	8.10	22.6%	6.5%	40.9%	18.2%	13.6%

Smith is making his second career major league start today. He has pitched well in the minors and looked pretty good in his first start in the big leagues. He is still a wildcard at this point though, and pitcher is one position where we want to see consistency. The upside is there against a strikeout-prone Rays’ offense, but so is the downside.

Quick Breakdown: Smith is too risky to trust in a cash game setting, but he’s worth a look as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium, but are hoping to bounce back after striking out 14 times against Masahiro Tanaka last night (hopefully everyone listened to my advice on him BTW). Today they face a rookie lefty that is only making his second career major league start. Evan Longoria has always hit southpaws well and Trevor Plouffe is still the bare minimum on FanDuel ($2,000).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.331	0.283	0.193	40.5%	8.1%	24.2%	45.2%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
2	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.329	0.266	0.093	26.9%	13.4%	26.8%	47.0%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.281	0.320	0.171	41.3%	12.9%	22.6%	52.5%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.327	0.301	0.268	50.0%	6.7%	36.7%	44.1%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.303	0.352	0.058	39.6%	8.0%	21.3%	47.2%	2B	$2,000	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.378	0.288	0.209	30.9%	4.2%	25.4%	49.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.307	0.317	0.110	37.5%	8.8%	28.6%	53.6%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.307	0.301	0.160	33.3%	3.6%	10.7%	50.0%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Jesus Sucre	RIGHT	0.215	0.252	0.103	29.2%	6.3%	18.8%	29.2%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Trevor Plouffe (FD)

Secondary Plays – Peter Bourjos, Evan Longoria, Trevor Plouffe (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the top offenses to target in the early slate. They are facing a pitcher that struggles with his command, which will lead to a lot of baserunners. With all of the power in this lineup, a lot of baserunners can lead to some big innings. Give an edge to the right-handed hitters, as Blake Snell has allowed a .333 xwOBA to batters from that side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.278	0.285	0.128	20.0%	13.2%	20.9%	47.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Clint Frazier	RIGHT	0.410	0.245	0.333	42.9%	0.0%	33.3%	35.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.440	0.483	0.347	43.5%	24.0%	27.1%	32.6%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,700	N/A	N/A
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.309	0.396	0.193	38.1%	12.3%	23.1%	40.5%	C	$3,600	C	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.340	0.340	0.175	45.0%	16.9%	31.2%	47.5%	OF	$2,600	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.261	0.265	0.053	14.5%	3.7%	17.3%	39.3%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Garrett Cooper	RIGHT	0.349	0.311	0.286	50.0%	0.0%	42.9%	12.5%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.341	0.387	0.282	40.0%	15.1%	19.8%	20.0%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.333	0.261	0.026	19.4%	4.8%	9.5%	61.1%	2B	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Todd Frazier

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Angels								Toronto
			Yusmeiro Petit							Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-120							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.346	0.335	37.7%	9.2%	15.5%	45.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	0.291	29.9%	7.2%	23.8%	58.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.256	0.241	27.0%	3.0%	26.9%	33.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.355	0.337	34.5%	12.9%	21.5%	46.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Yusmeiro Petit
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	1	4.03	4.50	18.5%	5.7%	41.5%	29.4%	18.4%
	2017	0	3.34	2.85	26.4%	5.7%	34.3%	35.2%	20.4%
	L30	0	4.85	5.00	13.5%	2.7%	32.3%	45.2%	29.0%

Petit is drawing his first start of the season, after making 36 appearances out of the bullpen. He likely won’t pitch deep into this game, which immediately takes him out of consideration. Even if he did see a full complement of pitches, he would be an easy fade. Petit has a below-average strikeout rate in his career and is facing a talented Blue Jays’ offense on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Petit in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Francisco Liriano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	29	4.38	4.69	23.0%	11.6%	52.0%	34.8%	19.4%
	2017	17	5.08	5.99	19.9%	12.0%	43.1%	31.2%	16.5%
	L30	6	5.47	6.41	15.1%	10.1%	41.6%	25.8%	25.8%

Liriano is coming off of one of his better starts this season, but is still one of the most volatile pitchers in baseball. On the season, his SIERA is above 5.00 and he has a walk rate of 12%. He is giving up more hard contact this season and the strikeout rate is down. While he is cheap and favored, he’s an easy fade against the Angels in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Angels are a patient offense that doesn’t strikeout often.

Quick Breakdown: Liriano is a deep GPP play at best. I plan to avoid him in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels aren’t the most potent offense around, but they draw a favorable matchup against Francisco Liriano and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Liriano has a high walk rate and he has allowed a .337 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.350	0.340	0.065	33.8%	7.0%	13.0%	60.0%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.399	0.382	0.237	27.6%	20.4%	18.4%	41.4%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,600	N/A	N/A
3	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.284	0.317	0.120	36.0%	7.1%	17.2%	40.0%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.412	0.398	0.351	40.7%	7.5%	25.0%	25.9%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.324	0.311	0.138	26.7%	11.1%	13.1%	50.7%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.296	0.331	0.162	29.1%	9.6%	19.1%	44.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.336	0.306	0.135	35.2%	8.1%	24.4%	57.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Shane Robinson	RIGHT	0.163	0.232	0.000	9.1%	6.7%	20.0%	54.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Cliff Pennington	SWITCH	0.283	0.276	0.038	31.6%	0.0%	26.9%	47.4%	SS	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, C.J. Cron

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a favorable matchup against Yusmeiro Petit, but they likely won’t face him for more than a few innings. Trying to figure out which batters benefit most from Petit’s splits may prove futile because they may only face him one time each. With that said, a Blue Jays’ stack is viable in the early slate and the one through five hitters are in play for cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.334	0.338	0.191	33.8%	13.1%	22.6%	33.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.344	0.335	0.169	30.8%	14.5%	22.4%	51.5%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.346	0.341	0.195	31.6%	14.5%	25.9%	43.9%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.375	0.398	0.292	39.7%	10.7%	22.1%	33.0%	1B	$3,900	1B	$5,400	N/A	N/A
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.301	0.358	0.186	37.6%	6.8%	22.2%	47.3%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.329	0.307	0.142	32.3%	5.4%	21.7%	45.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.224	0.239	0.087	17.1%	2.8%	15.7%	50.0%	SS	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,000	N/A	N/A
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.273	0.311	0.130	27.6%	5.2%	15.4%	45.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.265	0.286	0.130	28.1%	7.8%	17.6%	44.3%	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson,

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at LA Dodgers – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Francisco								LA Dodgers
			Ty Blach							Rich Hill
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-280							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.250	0.302	32.1%	7.2%	11.5%	54.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	0.289	23.2%	7.4%	19.8%	50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.307	30.0%	4.9%	12.8%	44.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.255	0.266	29.8%	9.0%	31.7%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ty Blach
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30
	2016	2	4.46	1.06	16.1%	8.1%	57.8%	29.8%	25.5%
	2017	16	5.05	4.50	11.9%	5.2%	46.2%	30.7%	20.1%
	L30	4	4.55	3.42	16.4%	5.5%	43.4%	30.2%	22.1%

Blach has some of the tools that we are looking for in a pitcher, but he is missing the main one – a high strikeout rate. A high ground ball rate and an ability to induce soft and medium contact is nice, but when you aren’t striking anyone out, you aren’t going to rack up enough fantasy points. Blach is an easy fade against the Dodgers, who are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Blach in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rich Hill
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$12,400	Salary:		$24,000
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	20	3.29	2.12	29.4%	7.5%	45.3%	28.3%	22.3%
	2017	14	3.89	3.48	28.6%	10.2%	38.7%	27.9%	24.6%
	L30	5	2.54	1.95	35.2%	4.0%	40.3%	31.5%	23.3%

Hill is finally starting to pitch well again. I can’t remember the exact quote, but he said something about baseball being a lot more fun when you don’t suck. I imagine that’s true, especially for a pitcher. In his last five starts, he has a 2.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He is the top pitcher in the early slate, narrowly beating out Jacob deGrom. Hill gets to take on a Giants’ offense that has struggled with southpaws all season.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t overthink this one. Eat the chalk and play Hill in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants draw the worst matchup in the early slate. They have to face Rich Hill, who has an elite strikeout rate and an ability to induce a lot of soft contact. Over the last two seasons, Hill has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.260	0.248	0.048	14.8%	5.9%	13.2%	55.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.291	0.279	0.072	23.2%	8.3%	14.8%	49.4%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,000	2B	$6,000
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.308	0.352	0.159	38.7%	8.2%	14.4%	46.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,700
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.450	0.380	0.264	34.6%	13.3%	9.5%	34.6%	C	$3,300	1B/C	$3,600	C	$7,200
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.296	0.303	0.150	29.9%	6.8%	17.0%	40.3%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
6	Jae-gyun Hwang	RIGHT	0.384	0.536	0.250	36.4%	0.0%	8.3%	45.5%	1B	$2,000	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,900
7	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.296	0.310	0.167	32.9%	11.0%	25.7%	36.5%	1B	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
8	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.264	0.289	0.051	29.0%	11.4%	18.2%	37.3%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,200
9	Ty Blach	LEFT	0.162	0.262	0.083	9.1%	0.0%	21.4%	40.0%	P	$7,200	P	$5,400	P	$10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers draw a favorable matchup against Ty Blach, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter in baseball. They should be able to put the ball in play often, it’s just a question of whether or not they can make good contact. Blach’s biggest strength is his ability to induce soft and medium contact. I still like the Dodgers’ stack here, but they aren’t my favorite offense in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.443	0.350	0.234	28.6%	10.5%	24.4%	42.9%	OF	$4,100	2B/OF	$4,800	2B	$9,200
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.391	0.388	0.231	48.1%	10.5%	25.8%	40.3%	SS	$3,600	SS	$5,300	SS	$10,200
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.533	0.481	0.376	47.1%	10.7%	8.9%	31.8%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
4	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.366	0.359	0.322	43.3%	8.1%	24.2%	31.3%	1B	$3,800	1B/OF	$5,500	IF/OF	$10,800
5	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.426	0.405	0.197	36.0%	16.9%	24.7%	40.0%	2B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,200	2B	$6,400
6	Austin Barnes	RIGHT	0.389	0.396	0.297	34.0%	12.2%	18.9%	40.0%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
7	Enrique Hernandez	RIGHT	0.424	0.406	0.409	41.7%	14.7%	19.3%	38.9%	OF	$2,300	OF/SS	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
8	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.226	0.289	0.064	25.0%	12.2%	12.2%	64.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
9	Rich Hill	LEFT	0.110	0.133	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	37.5%	60.0%	P	$9,400	P	$12,400	P	$24,000

Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Logan Forsythe, Austin Barnes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Seattle – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Seattle
			Jacob deGrom							Yovani Gallardo
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-115							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.300	31.7%	7.6%	22.9%	43.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.332	30.9%	12.5%	18.7%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.289	32.9%	6.1%	28.3%	47.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.353	0.344	30.0%	9.4%	14.9%	47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,200	Salary:		$12,900	Salary:		$25,200
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2016	24	3.66	3.04	23.7%	6.0%	45.6%	31.3%	19.0%
	2017	20	3.60	3.30	27.9%	7.7%	45.1%	33.5%	20.3%
	L30	5	3.20	2.21	28.3%	3.6%	40.9%	29.8%	18.1%

DeGrom is arguably the most talented pitcher in the early slate, but he draws a difficult matchup against the Mariners on the road. The first thing that stands out here is the Vegas line. The Mets are barely favored and the over/under is set at 9.0 runs. Vegas is right more often than not, which gives me pause when it comes to deGrom. He still has massive strikeout upside, but I’d rather go with Rich Hill at home.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is still viable in tournaments, but he seems overpriced in this matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Yovani Gallardo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2016	23	5.34	5.42	16.2%	11.6%	43.2%	27.5%	18.5%
	2017	15	4.99	5.58	17.3%	9.9%	45.8%	34.1%	19.8%
	L30	1	4.73	2.70	22.2%	13.0%	45.7%	34.3%	34.3%

Gallardo is not a pitcher that we need to spend a lot of time on. We know what we are going to get from him. He doesn’t strike many batters out and his main goal is to pitch five or more innings in hopes that his team can pick up the win. I know the Mets are in free-fall mode, but I try to avoid bad pitchers whenever possible. We can find better options in cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gallardo in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have given up on their season and it will be interesting to see what they do over the next couple of months. We could see them rest their veterans in order to make room for some prospects. As for their matchup today, they are in an excellent spot against Yovani Gallardo, who has allowed a .332+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.428	0.398	0.312	42.1%	14.8%	22.0%	35.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,600
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.360	0.368	0.226	34.7%	9.4%	13.6%	35.4%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.319	0.327	0.144	40.5%	6.6%	15.9%	37.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,300
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.382	0.371	0.287	42.9%	9.6%	22.3%	33.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.310	0.356	0.164	35.8%	11.6%	14.7%	45.0%	3B	$3,200	2B/SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.324	0.319	0.173	34.1%	5.4%	13.7%	36.3%	2B	$2,800	1B/3B	$4,000	3B	$7,800
7	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.330	0.331	0.238	32.5%	13.6%	21.9%	31.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
8	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.275	0.288	0.151	28.4%	6.7%	12.4%	37.8%	SS	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
9	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.258	0.289	0.166	33.9%	5.2%	16.1%	38.8%	C	$2,600	C	$3,200	C	$6,400

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle

The Mariners draw one of the worst possible matchups, yet their implied run total seems high. Once again, maybe Vegas knows something that we don’t. Even though it’s an interesting spot to target Seattle’s offense, I’m not sure that I can pull the trigger. In the last two seasons, Jacob deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.357	0.289	0.131	26.4%	3.2%	17.3%	57.5%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
2	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.355	0.311	0.130	26.5%	9.3%	23.8%	38.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.360	0.388	0.240	38.3%	9.6%	10.7%	53.9%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.364	0.365	0.243	37.9%	7.3%	21.1%	43.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,800
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.322	0.375	0.182	38.5%	8.4%	15.8%	32.1%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.300	0.272	0.136	24.7%	6.1%	26.4%	50.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$2,700	3B	$5,400
7	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.360	0.318	0.185	36.0%	11.4%	23.8%	42.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,400
8	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.315	0.286	0.142	18.2%	7.7%	16.2%	42.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,400
9	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.310	0.307	0.233	38.6%	6.7%	39.2%	28.7%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Houston at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Detroit
			Collin McHugh							Matt Boyd
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-106							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.297	27.5%	7.8%	22.9%	43.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.285	0.298	22.8%	7.3%	15.5%	55.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.294	32.8%	6.0%	21.5%	38.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.352	0.330	36.1%	8.1%	18.6%	37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Collin McHugh
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2016	33	4.02	4.34	22.2%	6.8%	41.3%	30.2%	20.0%
	2017	1	5.91	7.71	19.1%	9.5%	14.3%	35.7%	14.3%
	L30	1	5.95	7.71	19.1%	9.5%	14.3%	35.7%	14.3%

This game is in no man’s land. It isn’t included in the early-only slate and it isn’t included in the main slate. The only way to take players from this game is to play the all-day slate. McHugh is making his second start of the season. He has bounced in and out of the rotation over the last few years, but comes into this game as an underdog with the over/under set at 10.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: McHugh doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,200
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2016	18	4.38	4.53	19.9%	7.0%	38.1%	30.0%	19.2%
	2017	13	5.19	5.48	15.6%	9.1%	43.2%	38.7%	19.6%
	L30	2	4.37	4.50	22.0%	8.0%	39.4%	20.6%	35.3%

Boyd has been one of the easiest pitchers in baseball to avoid this season. He currently owns a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a hard contact rate of 39%. It’s not a great combination when you are a fly-ball pitcher and you can’t strike anyone out or induce soft contact. He is an easy fade tonight against the Astros, who are one of the best offenses in baseball against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid the Boyd.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

If you are playing in the all-day slate, you might want to consider stacking the Astros. They draw one of the top matchups on the schedule. Since the start of last season, Matt Boyd has allowed a .330 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Load up on the righties in this lineup and don’t be afraid to stack them in cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.428	0.338	0.231	24.7%	10.7%	10.7%	48.1%	2B	$4,500	2B	$5,700	2B	$11,100
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.306	0.313	0.036	17.8%	6.6%	18.0%	34.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,000
3	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.281	0.296	0.153	35.3%	4.7%	14.2%	51.8%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
4	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.288	0.357	0.210	30.8%	7.4%	16.2%	40.4%	C	$2,700	C	$4,100	C	$8,100
5	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.230	0.250	0.101	32.1%	4.7%	28.2%	33.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
6	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.359	0.267	0.243	23.2%	9.5%	21.4%	51.8%	SS	$3,700	3B/OF	$4,500	1B	$8,800
7	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.349	0.355	0.254	22.8%	10.5%	13.2%	50.9%	C	$2,800	C	$3,800	C	$7,600
8	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.382	0.362	0.184	24.3%	12.7%	13.7%	24.7%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,100
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.326	0.274	0.179	19.6%	8.0%	29.3%	27.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Beltran, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

It’s a close race between the Tigers and Blue Jays when it comes to the most frustrating offense in fantasy baseball. These two seem to let us down far more often than other teams. Detroit draws another favorable matchup tonight, as they square off against Collin McHugh, who has had reverse splits throughout his career. A Tigers’ stack isn’t out of the question, but don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.308	0.314	0.119	34.4%	10.1%	12.2%	33.0%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
2	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.391	0.430	0.226	54.0%	16.7%	30.3%	36.3%	C	$2,200	1B/C	$3,100	C	$6,000
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.356	0.353	0.228	43.1%	12.0%	27.3%	36.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,800
4	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.311	0.390	0.179	46.4%	10.4%	20.1%	41.1%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,600
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.300	0.337	0.150	46.2%	7.6%	25.6%	40.9%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
6	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.305	0.368	0.139	42.9%	9.2%	13.5%	40.1%	C	$3,000	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,400
7	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.339	0.311	0.138	35.6%	5.0%	21.8%	48.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
8	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.362	0.341	0.107	39.4%	8.5%	16.0%	49.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.277	0.247	0.101	29.3%	4.3%	14.2%	54.2%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 29th

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Stackability Rating System:

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trevor Plouffe (FD)

Secondary Plays – Peter Bourjos, Evan Longoria, Trevor Plouffe (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Todd Frazier

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, C.J. Cron

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson,

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at LA Dodgers – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Chris Taylor, Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Logan Forsythe, Austin Barnes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Seattle – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Houston at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Beltran, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Alex Avila, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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