MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 21st

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2016-08-22 00:05:42

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Editor’s Note: Henry Owens is starting in place of Eduardo Rodriguez on Sunday.

Boston at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Boston					Detroit
			Eduardo Rodriguez					Justin Verlander
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -133					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.346	8	30.2%	21.5%	SP vs. Left	0.275	19	23.7%	24.6%
SP vs. Right	0.310	18	30.5%	18.7%	SP vs. Right	0.281	16	27.2%	23.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		22.5	FPPG:		11.3
					Pitcher Rating:		53.7	Pitcher Rank:		19
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	90.0	3.41	2.78	29.0%	7.6%	13.0%	29.3%	37.8%	22.9%
2016	13	90.6	4.53	5.11	20.4%	8.2%	9.9%	30.6%	44.0%	28.6%
2015	21	95.7	4.16	3.85	18.8%	7.1%	7.8%	43.0%	33.4%	31.4%

Henry Owens: Owens will make the start for the injured Eduardo Rodriguez today, and while he has been lights out in AAA lately, we have been down this road before. Owens is thought to be a pretty solid prospect but has struggled with walks causing him to get pulled early in his big league starts and is part of the reason for his ERA over five. I want nothing to do with Owens until he shows the ability to produce at the highest level.

Justin Verlander
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		39.3	FPPG:		21.8
					Pitcher Rating:		77.2	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	112.3	3.33	2.09	27.7%	5.4%	11.6%	34.9%	44.0%	28.2%
2016	25	107.6	3.62	3.44	26.2%	6.5%	11.8%	35.5%	45.5%	27.6%
2015	20	107.5	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

Justin Verlander: Typically I would not consider a pitcher against the Red Sox to be very high on my list, but we have two factors in play here. First is that the pitcher pool is pretty shallow today, and second is that Verlander has already contained this Boston offense once. He has been very consistent on the season and offers good enough strikeout potential that we need to at least have him on our list of possibilities.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Red Sox: The flip side of this matchup is that Boston has a terrific offense that can get to any pitcher in the league. They do not rank near the top of the leaderboards in almost every statistical category for no reason. We have options here, and even a stack applies for those of you playing in tournaments.

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.351 (1 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.343 (4 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (7 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.49 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.31 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts , Sandy Leon , Dustin Pedroia

Stackability – Orange

Detroit

Tigers: Given the struggles that Owens has seen in his brief time in the majors, it is hard not to like the Tigers at least a little bit here. Detroit has some solid hitters against left handed pitching and that projected run total says we need to target some of these guys.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.323 (15 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.325 (10 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (13 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.6% (13 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.83 (19 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.60 (11 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.69 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera , Ian Kinsler , Victor Martinez

Stackability – Yellow

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers					Cincinnati
			Julio Urias					Anthony DeSclafani
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -130					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.291	3	26.7%	36.4%	SP vs. Left	0.349	20	32.1%	19.7%
SP vs. Right	0.356	2	33.1%	20.6%	SP vs. Right	0.285	6	29.6%	20.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Urias
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		23.5	FPPG:		11.7
					Pitcher Rating:		67.6	Pitcher Rank:		12
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	2	140.0	4.05	3.07	17.4%	8.7%	11.1%	56.0%	18.0%	25.5%
2016	10	96.6	4.03	4.41	24.4%	10.0%	10.6%	43.6%	29.5%	31.8%

Juio Urias: The Dodgers are bringing Urias back for a spot start as they push back Kent Maeda a bit. Urias has looked pretty solid since the break, but the problem is that he is not likely to pitch deep into the game. I like the matchup and his price on DraftKings, but you need to understand that the upside is somewhat limited.

Anthony DeSclafani
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$9,100
					FPPG:		34.2	FPPG:		17.6
					Pitcher Rating:		56.5	Pitcher Rank:		16
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	99.3	3.99	3.75	21.9%	6.2%	8.6%	39.2%	37.3%	31.7%
2016	13	99.6	3.95	3.10	21.6%	5.6%	9.3%	40.7%	37.6%	29.8%
2015	31	94.0	4.08	4.05	19.2%	7.0%	9.5%	45.1%	33.6%	31.4%

Anthony DeSclafani: It has been a pretty good August for DeSclafani on the mound with 17 innings and 17 strikeouts allowing seven runs in his three starts. The Dodgers are a team that was hitting the ball pretty well but have fallen on their face lately, making him an interesting prospect. I like him as more of a secondary option today but the problem is his price is a bit too high on DraftKings in my opinion.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Dodgers: Oh boy. The Dodgers are not a team many fantasy owners like right now. Inconsistency is the main culprit for them, and although the projected lineup shows the potential of this Los Angeles team it has been a rough few games. I could see everyone bailing on them in this one despite a decent matchup and great ballpark which peaks my interest a little.

• Dodgers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (10 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.340 (5 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (9 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (16 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (25 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.52 (16 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.68 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Corey Seager

Secondary Plays – Adrian Gonzalez , Yasmani Grandal , Joc Pederson

Stackability – Yellow

Cincinnati

Reds: They had a bit of an offensive explosion yesterday but will have a tougher task at hand today in Urias. If you are into chasing points, then this is the perfect trap for you, as Cincy is not likely to mimic that performance again today. Votto remains the key component from this squad and is really the only player I like for fantasy purposes from this side of things.

• Reds Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.297 (26 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (9 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.157 (17 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 23.0% (25 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.40 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.32 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton , Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – Red

Texas at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Texas					Tampa Bay
			Martin Perez					Drew Smyly
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -125					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	2	17.7%	21.2%	SP vs. Left	0.288	6	31.7%	34.9%
SP vs. Right	0.338	15	30.3%	10.5%	SP vs. Right	0.324	29	30.3%	22.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Martin Perez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		22.9	FPPG:		10.3
					Pitcher Rating:		41.4	Pitcher Rank:		23
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	92.0	4.65	4.19	14.4%	8.1%	10.5%	54.9%	25.4%	29.0%
2016	25	94.8	5.17	4.09	11.8%	9.4%	7.5%	54.1%	25.7%	31.0%
2015	14	86.8	4.06	4.46	14.2%	7.1%	7.5%	59.9%	22.1%	22.7%

Martin Perez: Do not be fooled by a solid start against the A’s last time out – Perez is not a good pitcher and someone we can fade here today. He does not offer enough strikeout upside and the runs having been crossing the plate far too often giving us little to no upside.

Drew Smyly
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:		15.0
					Pitcher Rating:		69.4	Pitcher Rank:		9
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	89.8	4.86	2.25	18.7%	6.5%	8.9%	26.1%	54.3%	22.8%
2016	23	96.5	4.03	4.85	23.3%	6.4%	10.8%	31.5%	48.2%	30.0%
2015	12	94.7	3.25	3.10	28.0%	7.3%	11.4%	36.8%	44.3%	31.6%

Drew Smyly: He has pitched very well for the Rays, going 32 innings with 23 strikeouts and only eight earned runs over his last five games picking up three wins in the process. This is not the easiest of matchups for Smyly, but when we factor in the price and other options available to us he has to be someone we consider, especially on multiple-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Rangers: Texas is not a bad hitting team at all, but this is a tougher matchup and in a good pitcher park. Do not get me wrong: both Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre make plenty of sense with Jonathan Lucroy to finish the job, but outside of the big three, I would limit my exposure here.

• Rangers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.326 (12 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.324 (11 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.159 (16 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 19.8% (8 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.78 (23 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.67 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.10 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran , Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – Orange

Tampa Bay

Rays: I want to like this Rays squad, but they simply do not have the lineup that can crush lefties anymore. The numbers are dipping versus lefties and it has to do with roster moves and injuries to some of their bigger targets from the first half. Evan Longoria continues to be a viable option in this scenario, and Perez is an easy target, but do not get carried away.

• Rays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.319 (20 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.323 (12 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.164 (14 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 25.3% (30 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.77 (26 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.18 (22 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.40 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy , Steven Souza , Mikie Mahtook

Stackability – Orange

Toronto at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto					Cleveland
			Marcus Stroman					Corey Kluber
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -160					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left	0.319	11	32.0%	18.8%	SP vs. Left	0.305	18	26.8%	24.8%
SP vs. Right	0.295	9	29.5%	19.7%	SP vs. Right	0.245	18	27.3%	28.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		29.6	FPPG:		14.8
					Pitcher Rating:		68.2	Pitcher Rank:		10
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	99.2	2.47	2.73	28.8%	3.0%	9.9%	62.1%	25.3%	30.3%
2016	24	96.6	3.56	4.63	19.5%	5.9%	8.8%	60.0%	21.1%	32.3%
2015	4	93.3	3.28	1.67	17.5%	5.8%	7.2%	64.1%	17.9%	21.8%

Marcus Stroman: It has been a solid second half for Stroman so far, but this is a tough Indians squad that can turn a good outing ugly in a hurry just ask Aaron Sanchez. The strikeouts are up, which is a good sign for fantasy purposes and the price is very solid, making him a pitcher I like in tournaments today. There is risk here but also potential.

Corey Kluber
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$11,800
					FPPG:		39.8	FPPG:		22.6
					Pitcher Rating:		92.6	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	100.6	3.61	2.12	25.2%	6.1%	13.7%	41.1%	38.9%	24.4%
2016	24	98.5	3.48	3.15	25.3%	5.9%	12.1%	46.8%	33.6%	27.1%
2015	32	102.3	2.98	3.49	27.7%	5.1%	12.9%	42.4%	35.9%	27.0%

Corey Kluber: We have seen a more dominant Kluber over his past five starts, in which he has struck out 33 batters in 34 innings while only allowing eight earned runs picking up four wins in the process. It is not too often we have a pitcher ranked number one against Toronto, and I do not feel good about it, but that is the case today.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Blue Jays: Toronto has the bats to do some damage – that much isn’t in question. The issue is that not only do they face a top-tier pitcher today but they have also struggled recently to get things going. You are going to be able to get them at a very low ownership, but just understand that is for a good reason, as their upside is limited by great pitching.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.312 (20 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (3 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.9% (25 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.07 (1 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.84 (6 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.40 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion , Devon Travis , Josh Donaldson

Stackability – Orange

Cleveland

Indians: All they do is hit in Cleveland, as they continue to climb the leaderboards offensively against right-handed pitching. As I mentioned with Stroman, he is a solid pitcher but is also at risk because of what this Indians lineup can do. The projected run total may not be that high, but I think they finish higher than 24th in runs today.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (5 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.354 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (7 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (11 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (6 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.08 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.10 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli , Francisco Lindor , Jose Ramirez

Stackability – Orange

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

Jump to Page 1 2 3