MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 28th

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2016-08-30 01:16:14

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 4:00 AM ET

Baltimore					NY Yankees
			Kevin Gausman					CC Sabathia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -110					9.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.284	12	28.6%	25.0%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.263	5	19.9%	27.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.362	28	29.2%	20.4%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.346	38	28.3%	17.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,700
					FPPG:		29.5	FPPG:		15.6
					Pitcher Rating:		58.9	Pitcher Rank:		14
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	101.0	4.16	4.41	25.2%	10.5%	8.9%	38.5%	40.7%	28.3%
2016	23	102.3	3.89	3.92	23.1%	6.7%	10.4%	42.3%	36.3%	30.2%
2015	17	110.4	3.69	4.25	21.9%	6.2%	10.9%	44.4%	38.1%	27.4%

Kevin Gausman: It has been a tale of two seasons for Gausman, with a pretty wide gap in his home and away splits. You are going to find out really quickly that the pitching on this slate is pretty top-heavy without much in the mid-tier. In August, we have seen Gausman strike out 32 batters in just under 33 innings while allowing 10 earned runs and picking up three wins in his five starts. The road stats scare me a bit, but he seems to be a pretty solid secondary option for this slate.

CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		28.7	FPPG:		14.2
					Pitcher Rating:		65.3	Pitcher Rank:		8
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	100.8	3.70	5.11	26.5%	9.0%	11.7%	51.0%	32.7%	27.3%
2016	23	96.7	4.44	4.33	19.6%	8.7%	10.0%	48.9%	34.0%	24.1%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

CC Sabathia: The Yankees moved Sabathia up to pitch against the Orioles because of their struggles against left-handed pitching, but that only works if the pitcher is able to pitch well. In August, we have Sabathia strike out 36 batters in 30 innings pitched but also allow 19 runs in the process. He is a boom-or-bust option, and while the Orioles may not be as good against southpaws, they still have a very dangerous lineup. The pitcher rank likes him better than I do, but his price makes him playable with the strikeout upside he has.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Orioles: It is not that often you see a team full of right-handed bats that crush right-handed pitching while struggling to hit lefties. That is exactly what we have with the Orioles, who have been far worse against southpaws on the season. With that said, the talent is here to put up some runs, and Sabathia has proven he can give them up in bunches, making Baltimore an intriguing option today.

• Orioles Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.294 (27 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (19 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.151 (23 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 21.9% (18 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.89 (11 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.73 (8 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.69 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Steve Pearce , Manny Machado , Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – Orange

NY Yankees

Yankees: The Yankees have had some life injected into this offense with the legend of Gary Sanchez growing each day. With that said, it is still a tough matchup against Gausman, who has been pretty solid for the Orioles. Outside of Didi Gregorius, the veterans on this squad have been pretty horrible, leaving us to trust a couple young power hitters to keep up a pace that is unsustainable.

• Yankees Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (23 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (16 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (18 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (9 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.16 (23 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.81 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez , Didi Gregorius , Aaron Judge

Stackability – Red

Minnesota at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Minnesota					Toronto
			Kyle Gibson					R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -192					9.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.337	16	29.9%	15.8%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.313	24	24.9%	13.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.301	16	27.3%	18.4%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.327	28	28.8%	16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		23.5	FPPG:		10.7
					Pitcher Rating:		39.3	Pitcher Rank:		28
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	100.3	4.97	5.97	15.1%	8.8%	10.8%	45.0%	29.2%	37.2%
2016	18	98.6	4.69	5.09	16.1%	8.4%	9.8%	49.9%	28.2%	30.2%
2015	32	101.1	4.12	3.84	17.7%	7.9%	9.8%	53.4%	26.8%	27.7%

Kyle Gibson: I do not want to spend too much time on Gibson who is far too inconsistent and does not offer the strikeout upside we are looking for to roster him in fantasy. Add the Blue Jays offense into the mix and we have a pretty easy fade in my opinion.

R.A. Dickey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		25.3	FPPG:		11.6
					Pitcher Rating:		50.4	Pitcher Rank:		22
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	97.2	5.10	4.40	17.1%	10.6%	13.4%	43.0%	37.2%	31.0%
2016	26	96.1	4.86	4.43	17.0%	8.9%	10.6%	43.5%	35.6%	31.5%
2015	33	98.9	4.76	3.91	14.3%	6.9%	9.1%	41.9%	37.2%	23.9%

R.A. Dickey: Dickey has been pretty decent in August but is another pitcher who does not give us the strikeout upside we need. On top of that, he has been walking guys a bit too much for my liking. The pitching in this game is not what we are looking for, even on a mediocre pitching slate. I think there is a decent chance Dickey picks up the win today but also gives up some runs and has a lower strikeout total. That makes it easy to pass on him.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Twins: Minnesota has been a completely different team in the second half offensively. They are hovering around tenth in the league in ISO and wOBA during that span, and while they do strike out, there is upside in these bats as well. We have seen them cool down a bit more recently, but I like the idea of having some exposure to both sides of this game offensively.

• Twins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (14 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.337 (5 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (14 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (5 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.52 (16 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.22 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler , Miguel Sano , Joe Mauer

Stackability – Orange

Toronto

Blue Jays: It is a little unbelievable to me that, given the caliber of hitters in their lineup, the Blue Jays have not really gone on a hot streak lately. Sure, the offense has produced really good numbers overall, but this is a team capable of big things when it is all clicking. Gibson is a pitcher we can attack here, and once again, I like the idea of loading up on Toronto bats with the projected run total agreeing with me this time.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (9 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (16 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (4 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 23.1% (26 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.82 (7 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.28 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion , Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson , Jose Bautista , Melvin Upton , Michael Saunders

Stackability – Green

LA Angels at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

LA Angels					Detroit
			Tyler Skaggs					Anibal Sanchez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -160					9.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.320	0	30.8%	18.2%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.319	22	26.7%	22.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.359	3	26.5%	21.9%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.366	31	30.3%	19.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Skaggs
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		22.0	FPPG:		10.2
					Pitcher Rating:		45.0	Pitcher Rank:		24
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	91.7	4.56	5.70	21.0%	10.1%	7.1%	39.8%	34.4%	27.7%
2016	6	91.7	4.56	5.70	21.0%	10.1%	7.1%	39.8%	34.4%	27.7%

Tyler Skaggs: I had high hopes for Skaggs coming back to the big leagues after looking really sharp in the minors and even carrying that into his first start for the Angels. Any hope I had though has now left, as he is really struggling with his command, walking 13 batters in his last five starts. Detroit is not only built to hit left-handed pitching, but they are starting to put it together at the plate more consistently, making Skaggs someone we can avoid today.

Anibal Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		19.1	FPPG:		9.0
					Pitcher Rating:		67.7	Pitcher Rank:		7
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	92.4	4.16	3.66	21.1%	5.7%	10.0%	37.1%	48.3%	25.6%
2016	21	101.1	4.48	5.83	20.4%	8.7%	9.5%	38.7%	42.4%	30.2%
2015	25	101.3	4.03	4.99	20.9%	7.4%	9.3%	40.0%	39.1%	27.1%

Anibal Sanchez: Whenever you see Sanchez with a top-10 pitcher rank, it should clue you in on what kind of pitching we have overall. He is a complete mixed bag of outcomes but has shown the ability to pitch deep into games recently and is certainly worth a look at this price point. The Angels do not strikeout often, making this play a little tougher to pull the trigger, but the price is very affordable, and I do not mind him if you are looking for an expensive stack.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Angels: They may not strike out, but the Angels also have not been pushing across runs at a high pace either. I actually like the guys near the top of the order moving forward, but there is virtually no support, and that leaves a situation where the power numbers need to take over in order to do any damage.

• Angels Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.297 (28 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.139 (25 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 15.8% (1 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.69 (30 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.42 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.40 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun , Albert Pujols

Stackability – Red

Detroit

Tigers: It is not surprising to me that the Tigers have the second-highest projected run total today with a struggling lefty on the hill for L.A. Detroit has the lineup to crush a southpaw, and as you can see by the projected lineup, we have a good amount of blue spread across the lineup, creating some interesting options for us today.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (15 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.329 (10 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.168 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.7% (12 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.82 (20 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.63 (10 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.10 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera , J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler , Cameron Maybin , Victor Martinez , Justin Upton

Stackability – Green

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia					NY Mets
			Vince Velasquez					Robert Gsellman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -128					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.330	14	31.6%	25.1%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.345	0	50.0%	0.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.325	10	30.0%	28.1%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.294	0	50.0%	16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vince Velasquez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		31.5	FPPG:		16.7
					Pitcher Rating:		75.3	Pitcher Rank:		5
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	100.2	3.68	7.57	27.4%	8.1%	9.6%	29.9%	42.9%	47.5%
2016	22	91.7	3.73	4.31	27.2%	8.8%	11.1%	35.1%	41.2%	32.4%

Vince Velasquez: I will be honest here: Velasquez’s pitcher rank is not representative of the type of pitcher Velasquez has been lately. He has allowed five or more runs in three straight starts, including eight home runs during that span. The Mets have not been good offensively, but it is hard to imagine a scenario where I trust Velasquez as anything other than a secondary tournament option today.

Robert Gsellman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,900
					FPPG:		29.0	FPPG:		12.7
					Pitcher Rating:		43.1	Pitcher Rank:		26
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	0	0.0	6.65	0.00	12.5%	18.8%	12.0%	40.0%	40.0%	50.0%
2016	0	0.0	6.65	0.00	12.5%	18.8%	12.0%	40.0%	40.0%	50.0%

Robert Gsellman: Gsellman is taking Jon Niese spot in the Mets rotation and will be making his first major league start today in front of the home crowd. Gsellman had a pretty solid effort relieving Jon Niese in his last start, as he didn’t allow an earned run and 3 2/3 innings and picked up the win. The numbers from the minors are not eye-popping, so it is tough to know what to expect, but I do not think we get a ton of strikeouts here. Even so, at this price and with this matchup, I do not mind Gsellman as a secondary option to free up some space for bats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Phillies: Philadelphia is not a good offense in the slightest and are very hard to roster for fantasy purposes, but with a youngster on the mound, it is okay to have a little exposure here. But just a little, as it is just hard to trust anyone from this lineup to give you the production we are looking for.

• Phillies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (27 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.310 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.161 (17 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (21 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.77 (28 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.76 (29 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.08 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ryan Howard , Odubel Herrera

Stackability – Red

NY Mets

Mets: While Velasquez has been pretty bad lately, I do not think we need to go crazy with exposure to the Mets here. With that said, he has been giving up the long ball with regularity, and I want to get the power bats of Cespedes and Bruce into at least a couple tournament lineups today.

• Mets Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (25 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.305 (27 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (14 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.1% (24 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (8 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.81 (28 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.42 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce , Jose Reyes , Curtis Granderson

Stackability – Orange

San Diego at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Wil Myers has been scratched.

San Diego					Miami
			Luis Perdomo					Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -162					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.366	9	40.6%	12.7%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.373	22	37.3%	19.2%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.375	6	28.7%	19.4%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.311	12	27.8%	20.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Perdomo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,100
					FPPG:		14.1	FPPG:		5.6
					Pitcher Rating:		53.9	Pitcher Rank:		20
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	103.4	4.45	4.50	16.9%	8.8%	8.3%	59.2%	27.6%	38.8%
2016	14	132.3	4.14	6.24	16.5%	7.9%	9.2%	58.6%	22.5%	34.2%

Luis Perdomo: I do not believe Perdomo to be as good as DFS Twitter thinks or wants him to be, but he had a great outing against Arizona last time out. The one thing you cannot argue with is his elite GB% which is tops in the NL of pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. The strikeout rate is a bit low, and the hard hit rate is a bit high, but Perdomo finds himself in a pretty good matchup to prove that one start was not a fluke. I like the price as a secondary option today, but do not get carried away with exposure, as there is risk.

Andrew Cashner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		20.5	FPPG:		9.8
					Pitcher Rating:		64.5	Pitcher Rank:		9
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	93.8	5.08	4.59	16.2%	10.6%	8.4%	49.0%	33.3%	45.6%
2016	21	88.3	4.68	4.73	18.0%	9.0%	7.5%	47.8%	33.9%	35.5%
2015	31	100.3	4.00	4.34	20.5%	8.2%	8.2%	47.4%	29.9%	30.2%

Justin Nicolino: Nicolino will be filling in for Andrew Cashner who has a blister issue and will not get to face his old squad. With that change, it makes the Marlins side of things less appealing, as Nicolino is not a pitcher we want for fantasy purposes. If anything, it bumps up my confidence in the Perdomo win a bit more.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Padres: The Padres will now face a left-hander today, and while that would have been great news a bit earlier in the season, some of those strong bats (Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton) are now playing for other teams. I do not necessarily like Nicolino today but also have little faith in the Padres bats, making it a tough situation.

• Padres Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.292 (30 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.291 (29 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (22 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 24.6% (29 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (11 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.35 (20 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.89 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers , Yangervis Solarte , Derek Norris

Stackability – Red

Miami

Marlins: Miami is just not a team built to produce big fantasy numbers for us at this point. Sure, you can roster guys from this team and be fine, but a stack is not something I am looking for today, especially if Perdomo is starting to figure it all out. You can pluck a guy from this lineup here and there, but minimal exposure is suggested.

• Marlins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (14 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.314 (20 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (5 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (26 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.22 (21 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.61 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays -Christian Yelich , Marcell Ozuna , J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – Red

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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