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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-04 00:53:09

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin detroitmlb Chad Bell
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-170 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.340 38.2% 2.4% 17.1% 41.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.314 38.3% 9.5% 25.7% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.346 34.4% 2.7% 19.8% 37.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.381 0.388 46.5% 10.9% 16.0% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.24 4.40 16.3% 2.8% 43.8% 33.9% 16.4%
2017 20 4.16 5.38 18.6% 2.6% 39.3% 36.1% 13.9%

Welcome to the last major Sunday of the MLB season in DFS. Don’t believe me? Wait until you see the prize pools on Sundays moving forward. The NFL rules all and everyone’s focus is already starting to shift in that direction. I’m still here for you though, as my full attention (which may be short lived) is on baseball.

Tomlin isn’t a pitcher that I trust in DFS unless he has a truly elite matchup. He owns a below-average strikeout rate, he is a fly-ball pitcher, and he allows a lot of hard contact. He does throw a lot of strikes, but it hasn’t led to a high strikeout rate. While I don’t mind his matchup against the short-handed Tigers, he’s still a below-average pitcher on the road.

Quick Breakdown: In a full Sunday slate, we can find better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Chad Bell
chad-bell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.48 5.48 19.7% 10.4% 45.1% 43.6% 15.8%
L30 0 4.46 3.86 22.2% 13.0% 51.4% 31.4% 17.1%

Bell is making his first career major league start today against the Indians. In seven Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.64 FIP with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 7%. He is nearly 29 years old and not exactly considered a top pitching prospect. When we have call-ups this late in the season, I like to lean on Vegas. The oddsmakers have Bell listed as a large underdog, even though he’s pitching at home.

Quick Breakdown: It doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with Bell.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are a top ten offense against left-handed pitching and they get to face a rookie pitcher that is making his first career major league start. More often than not, the opposing offense has better success than the pitcher making his debut. Bell has a wide range of outcomes here, one of which is getting shelled against a talented Indians’ offense. The right-handed batters in this lineup are viable in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.380 0.355 0.224 41.9% 7.9% 14.0% 39.3% SS $4,300 SS $5,100 SS $9,900
2 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.425 0.367 0.228 31.7% 12.9% 19.0% 44.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.343 0.334 0.180 32.1% 6.9% 12.3% 42.7% 2B $3,400 2B/3B $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.358 0.381 0.188 37.4% 19.8% 22.4% 44.9% 1B $4,100 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.331 0.338 0.189 32.5% 12.7% 8.9% 50.0% 1B $3,800 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
6 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.366 0.416 0.067 54.6% 25.0% 20.0% 54.5% 3B $2,200 3B/OF $2,900 3B $5,600
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.315 0.305 0.119 20.8% 8.6% 22.4% 36.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.368 0.328 0.260 41.4% 10.0% 24.5% 43.5% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Giovanny Urshela RIGHT 0.224 0.239 0.060 26.8% 2.0% 17.6% 41.5% 3B $2,200 3B $2,700 3B $5,400

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

I have conflicting interests on this side of the ball. I’m bearish on the Tigers’ offense moving forward, but I typically like to target hitters against Josh Tomlin. On the season, he has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Even though this is an exploitable matchup, there aren’t any Tigers’ hitters that stand out as elite plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.292 0.307 0.127 34.5% 8.9% 13.7% 35.1% 2B $2,800 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
2 Alex Presley LEFT 0.319 0.301 0.090 32.7% 6.2% 19.9% 46.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.304 0.337 0.158 45.1% 6.9% 24.8% 38.0% 3B $2,900 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
4 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.338 0.312 0.162 37.1% 7.3% 22.8% 47.5% OF $2,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
5 James McCann RIGHT 0.286 0.311 0.130 39.1% 6.7% 26.3% 37.9% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,600
6 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.237 0.240 0.042 26.9% 12.5% 39.3% 52.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,100
7 John Hicks RIGHT 0.385 0.347 0.147 36.2% 6.0% 21.4% 51.7% C $2,100 1B/C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.291 0.293 0.124 25.8% 7.1% 18.3% 44.1% OF $2,000 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.292 0.260 0.121 29.4% 4.5% 14.4% 54.0% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphiamlb Jake Thompson miamimlb Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-210 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.389 0.406 39.3% 16.2% 5.4% 53.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 0.372 34.3% 9.1% 12.0% 32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.469 0.418 34.2% 8.3% 20.0% 35.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.318 29.8% 7.8% 20.3% 49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Thompson
jake-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 5.68 5.70 13.5% 11.8% 46.4% 34.1% 14.5%
2017 3 5.66 5.40 14.4% 11.3% 42.6% 36.2% 17.4%
L30 1 6.29 9.00 14.8% 14.8% 37.5% 23.5% 23.5%

Thompson struggled mightily in his ten major league starts last season and 2017 hasn’t been any kinder. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he has allowed a lot of hard contact. When a pitcher is a sizable underdog against Jose Urena, it’s generally not a good sign.

Quick Breakdown: Thompson is an easy fade in all formats today against the Marlins.

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 22 5.07 3.84 16.3% 8.4% 40.8% 32.1% 19.0%
L30 5 5.05 3.91 15.5% 7.3% 42.2% 31.3% 20.5%

Urena has a low ERA (3.84) this season, but he carries very little fantasy appeal. His advanced stats suggest some serious regression and he doesn’t have a high enough strikeout rate (16%) to make him a viable play at this price point. Even though the Phillies have struggled against right-handed pitching all season, Urena doesn’t have the upside that I’m looking for in a pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Urena in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a favorable matchup against Jose Urena, but they’ve been one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching this season. Urena has good splits against right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .372 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to lefties this season. The matchup lines up well for Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, and Nick Williams, but the red-hot Rhys Hoskins is also worth a look.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.339 0.304 0.113 23.4% 10.0% 20.9% 50.2% 2B $3,600 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.308 0.289 0.157 28.3% 7.8% 20.4% 35.5% SS $3,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.347 0.330 0.213 40.0% 7.8% 28.1% 50.5% OF $3,100 OF $2,800 LF $5,600
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.422 0.344 0.333 41.7% 7.7% 18.5% 29.2% OF $4,400 1B/OF $4,800 1B $9,200
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.309 0.306 0.177 37.2% 5.3% 23.2% 42.7% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.283 0.303 0.161 28.7% 6.5% 15.9% 44.3% 3B $2,600 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
7 Pedro Florimon SWITCH 0.300 0.234 0.088 23.8% 2.9% 37.1% 50.0% OF $2,400 2B/OF $2,300 SS $4,500
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.305 0.288 0.240 28.2% 7.7% 35.7% 48.2% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Jake Thompson RIGHT 0.410 0.533 0.333 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% P $6,300 P $5,200 P $10,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

Strictly from a talent standpoint, Jake Thompson might be the worst pitcher in the entire slate. Since the beginning of last season, he has a SIERA above 5.50 with a walk rate (11%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (14%). The Marlins have let us down on a number of occasions recently, but make for an intriguing stack in tournaments. Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, and J.T. Realmuto are all viable in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.315 0.256 0.067 17.5% 5.2% 14.3% 55.2% 2B $3,700 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.405 0.391 0.341 37.6% 10.8% 25.8% 41.9% OF $4,700 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.358 0.362 0.166 37.1% 12.7% 19.0% 55.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.397 0.375 0.274 40.8% 9.6% 21.3% 44.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.320 0.324 0.168 32.8% 5.0% 18.3% 50.4% C $2,800 C $3,400 C $6,800
6 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.292 0.147 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% 3B $2,200 3B $4,000
7 Tomas Telis SWITCH 0.269 0.285 0.088 29.4% 3.3% 10.0% 56.9% 1B $2,000 1B $2,600 C $5,200
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.274 0.294 0.035 17.3% 8.9% 10.1% 52.0% SS $2,200 SS $2,400 2B $4,800
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.099 0.122 0.033 19.1% 0.0% 41.7% 55.6% P $6,700 P $7,500 P $14,800

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Sal Romano pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-127 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.307 40.0% 11.1% 19.8% 44.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.284 23.1% 6.4% 15.4% 48.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.377 0.300 32.3% 9.5% 17.5% 55.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.335 34.5% 9.6% 19.2% 47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 4.88 4.91 18.6% 10.3% 50.3% 35.9% 18.5%
L30 6 4.55 5.11 16.2% 6.2% 51.3% 39.0% 17.1%

Romano has pitched well in his last three starts, but it’s going to take more than that for me to drink the Kool-Aid. In the minors earlier this season, he had a strikeout rate of only 15%, which is a huge red flag. To make matters worse, he has to face a Pirates’ offense that has the second lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward for Romano in a road start against the Pirates.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 21 4.71 4.37 17.3% 8.0% 48.3% 28.6% 23.1%
L30 5 5.14 4.03 19.2% 12.0% 43.4% 25.3% 15.7%

Williams has had a mediocre season at best. Despite pitching in a good division and a pitcher-friendly ballpark, he owns a 4.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. The total for this game is set at 9.0 runs, which is a bit high for a game being played in Pittsburgh. Williams may be a favorite, but he’s a small one and he draws a tough matchup against the Reds, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA and 12th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Williams is preferred over Romano, but both can be avoided in today’s slate.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds see a negative ballpark shift playing in PNC Park, but they draw a decent matchup against Trevor Williams. On the season, he has allowed a .335 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. He’s been much tougher on lefties, which limits the appeal of Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto. The righties in this lineup are viable, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.292 0.253 0.087 15.7% 8.4% 20.3% 46.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.376 0.321 0.219 29.5% 12.6% 16.4% 40.2% SS $3,200 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.434 0.432 0.274 38.1% 19.1% 11.0% 37.4% 1B $4,400 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.328 0.294 0.246 33.9% 5.3% 27.2% 30.7% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.397 0.341 0.277 38.6% 7.2% 20.6% 40.1% 2B $3,500 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.369 0.349 0.214 31.0% 13.2% 22.0% 39.5% 3B $4,000 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.368 0.270 40.0% 10.2% 22.4% 43.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.316 0.330 0.118 33.8% 9.6% 16.4% 44.3% C $2,900 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.000 0.058 0.000 10.0% 0.0% 47.4% 100.0% P $6,400 P $7,900 P $15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a favorable matchup against rookie Sal Romano, who didn’t have the best minor league numbers before being called up. His strikeout rate of 18% may not be sustainable at this level and the Pirates come into the game as small favorites with a relatively high implied total. They are still the Pirates though, so I won’t go overboard (see what I did there?) on my exposure.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.344 0.327 0.114 26.6% 6.3% 17.6% 48.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.322 0.312 0.151 32.8% 4.4% 16.8% 34.8% 2B $3,200 2B/3B $3,400 2B $6,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.332 0.342 0.151 32.4% 10.6% 18.0% 44.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.362 0.342 0.233 34.7% 11.4% 18.7% 50.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.310 0.334 0.103 31.6% 11.6% 23.2% 56.0% 3B $2,500 3B $2,800 3B $5,600
6 John Jaso LEFT 0.333 0.356 0.203 36.3% 13.1% 20.8% 32.5% 1B $2,600 1B/OF $3,300 1B $6,400
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.309 0.305 0.144 28.1% 9.4% 15.4% 48.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
8 Chris Stewart RIGHT 0.232 0.257 0.032 30.4% 5.0% 15.8% 35.1% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.101 0.185 0.000 13.6% 5.9% 29.4% 55.6% P $6,900 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto at Baltimore – 1:35 PM ET

Toronto Baltimore
torontomlb Brett Anderson baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-128 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.505 0.542 65.0% 4.2% 12.5% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.427 0.420 34.2% 20.4% 11.6% 47.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.369 0.349 28.4% 10.2% 14.8% 52.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.408 0.371 39.0% 4.3% 17.1% 35.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson
brett-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 5.10 11.91 8.1% 6.5% 50.0% 35.9% 24.5%
2017 7 4.85 6.83 14.4% 9.1% 52.0% 35.6% 23.8%
L30 1 3.67 1.59 14.3% 0.0% 61.1% 38.9% 27.8%

Anderson pitched well in his last start, but he’s had a down year overall. He currently owns a 4.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. For me to believe in a drastic improvement, I’ll need to see it in more than just one outing. He draws a tough matchup against the Orioles in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The common thought is that they can’t hit left-handed pitching, but they are actually ranked 12th in team wOBA this season.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road in what could be a shootout, Anderson is an easy fade in all formats.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.61 3.77 19.6% 9.2% 41.2% 31.5% 18.3%
2017 17 5.67 7.91 14.6% 11.5% 40.5% 37.0% 17.1%
L30 3 7.31 9.00 8.8% 17.7% 46.9% 44.0% 10.0%

Is it just me, or is this page loaded with bad pitchers? We can add Tillman to the list, as he owns a 5.67 SIERA on the season with a walk rate (12%) that rivals his strikeout rate (15%). There are times when I don’t mind picking on the Blue Jays, but this isn’t one of them. With little to no upside, it will be hard for Tillman to pay off his salary.

Quick Breakdown: Similar to the other pitchers that we’ve covered so far, Tillman is an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw an excellent matchup against Chris Tillman, who has allowed a .420 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .371 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. He also has a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. Toronto hasn’t been great against Tillman in the past, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t right the ship tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.368 0.296 0.152 25.3% 8.3% 21.4% 48.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.383 0.375 0.256 32.8% 15.9% 23.4% 41.9% 3B $3,600 3B $5,000 3B $9,600
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.307 0.324 0.174 34.5% 13.1% 23.2% 35.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.368 0.390 0.285 41.3% 9.7% 22.9% 34.4% 1B $3,300 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.298 0.359 0.201 37.3% 7.0% 22.6% 48.9% 1B $2,900 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.279 0.294 0.128 25.6% 5.0% 15.8% 45.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
7 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.299 0.286 0.160 35.2% 9.2% 23.3% 38.0% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,900
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.271 0.274 0.124 29.7% 7.4% 18.0% 46.3% SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,000 2B $6,000
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.210 0.248 0.077 21.4% 1.7% 15.3% 48.9% 2B $2,000 2B/3B $2,000 2B $3,900

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles aren’t the best offense in baseball, but they have a right-handed heavy lineup to throw at Brett Anderson. They also get to play at home in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The sample size is still fairly small this season (seven starts and some relief work), but Anderson has allowed a .349 xwOBA and a 10% walk rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.343 0.332 0.175 35.3% 8.3% 26.3% 47.1% SS $3,800 SS $4,900 SS $9,600
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.353 0.386 0.248 46.1% 6.7% 16.1% 43.0% 3B $4,300 3B $5,200 3B $10,200
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.407 0.372 0.308 40.0% 8.3% 25.0% 43.2% 2B $4,200 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.319 0.324 0.171 33.0% 7.0% 19.0% 41.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 CF $8,800
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.305 0.320 0.142 32.7% 4.3% 25.5% 50.0% OF $3,400 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.316 0.318 0.121 33.9% 11.8% 39.0% 33.8% 1B $3,900 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.320 0.274 0.156 29.6% 5.9% 22.1% 42.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.424 0.393 0.228 41.7% 4.8% 23.8% 31.7% C $3,500 C $3,700 C $7,200
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.310 0.287 0.111 30.0% 5.2% 17.2% 29.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 RF $6,400

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Kansas City Minnesota
kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy minnesotamlb Ervin Santana
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-150 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.352 45.8% 10.7% 19.5% 33.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.289 29.4% 5.6% 16.3% 41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.343 36.3% 8.9% 20.9% 40.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.305 29.1% 9.7% 23.3% 42.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.27 3.68 22.5% 8.1% 33.2% 36.4% 18.6%
2017 25 4.87 5.47 20.3% 9.8% 37.2% 40.7% 11.8%
L30 5 5.35 9.67 18.5% 11.1% 32.0% 44.0% 6.7%

Kennedy was shelled in his last start. It’s a theme that we’ve become accustomed to this season. In 25 starts, he has a 4.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a hard contact rate of 40%. As a sizable underdog on the road against the Twins, we don’t need to waste a lot of time on Kennedy.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Kennedy in all formats.

Ervin Santana
ervin-santana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $11,000 Salary: $21,300
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 27 4.56 3.27 20.2% 7.9% 41.9% 29.2% 21.8%
L30 5 3.89 3.23 24.4% 6.7% 42.7% 30.3% 23.6%

I’ve been suggesting regression for Santana for most of the season. While it hasn’t exactly come to fruition, I have more faith in him now than I have at any other point this season. In his last five starts, he has a 3.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. We know he has the ability to pitch deep into games and the Royals swing at a lot of pitches early in the count. This wouldn’t typically be a matchup that I’d look to exploit, but this may be the worst pitching slate of the year.

Quick Breakdown: It’s ugly when it comes to pitching today. Santana might be the best pitcher in the main slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals aren’t an offense that I target very often and they are rarely an offense that I target pitchers against. From a splits perspective, this matchup doesn’t look nearly as enticing as you might expect. On the season, Santana has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.318 0.296 0.165 28.3% 3.3% 14.5% 37.2% 2B $3,700 2B $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.343 0.328 0.126 31.0% 7.9% 17.2% 45.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.331 0.339 0.128 28.6% 5.9% 11.4% 51.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.391 0.380 0.195 32.9% 11.6% 16.5% 51.8% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.333 0.330 0.225 37.7% 3.1% 21.0% 32.3% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,600
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.372 0.362 0.297 35.1% 6.4% 16.0% 30.2% 3B $3,100 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
7 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.334 0.323 0.170 30.3% 9.5% 27.9% 40.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
8 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.291 0.325 0.231 36.5% 10.3% 33.2% 31.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
9 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.237 0.254 0.075 25.4% 1.7% 17.5% 42.8% SS $2,300 SS $2,500 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Minnesota

The Twins went nuts last night, scoring 17 runs and demolishing the Royals’ pitching staff. Seeing as how they had to use a lot of relievers last night, their bullpen could be pitching on tired arms in this one. If the Twins can get to Ian Kennedy early, they should be able to feast on the Royals’ long relievers. In terms of splits, Kennedy has allowed a .340+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.332 0.317 0.204 33.4% 9.6% 21.2% 39.8% 2B $4,400 2B $5,100 2B $10,000
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.353 0.391 0.125 40.0% 12.0% 13.6% 49.6% 1B $3,600 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.316 0.290 0.169 27.0% 8.2% 14.7% 38.9% SS $4,000 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
4 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.283 0.259 0.154 25.3% 5.8% 30.9% 40.6% OF $3,700 OF $5,000 CF $9,900
5 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.364 0.331 0.238 31.9% 7.2% 18.3% 39.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
6 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.327 0.324 0.197 30.4% 5.4% 26.8% 45.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.366 0.326 0.234 37.2% 8.9% 16.3% 40.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
8 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.279 0.293 0.136 30.1% 6.4% 19.2% 35.7% 3B $3,000 3B/SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.332 0.289 0.143 23.0% 17.5% 27.2% 37.3% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,600

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious