MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-26 17:40:37

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Arizona at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Arizona								Chicago Cubs
			Zack Godley							Tyler Chatwood
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-110
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.352	34.4%	87.1	21.2%	59.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.390	0.400	34.4%	88.4	15.9%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.360	39.1%	89.3	24.6%	43.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.284	0.335	23.2%	84.6	22.4%	61.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Zack Godley
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 22	Salary Rank:			7 of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	3.67	3.37	26.3%	8.5%	55.3%	32.2%	18.6%	91.9	13.3%
	2018	20	4.34	4.65	22.9%	11.5%	51.1%	36.8%	21.5%	90.0	11.8%
	L14	2	3.88	3.27	26.5%	10.2%	48.3%	38.7%	16.1%	90.1	18.0%

We have two early games on the schedule this fine Thursday. For our purposes here on the Grind Down, we’ll cover the strategy for this early-only slate and then head over and look at the main slate. Godley’s command has been an issue this season, but the rest of his numbers are still appealing. In 20 starts, he has a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 51%. Over his last two starts, his swinging strike rate was 18%, so perhaps he has found something recently. We don’t have a total for this game at the time of writing this, but the wind looks like it’ll be blowing out to right field at 10 MPH. Those aren’t exactly the best pitching conditions, but they could certainly be worse.

Quick Breakdown: Godley is viable thanks to a lack of pitching options in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tyler Chatwood
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			20 of 22	Salary Rank:			15 of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.78	4.69	19.0%	12.2%	58.1%	29.1%	22.1%	94.7	9.9%
	2018	18	6.02	4.84	18.8%	19.0%	54.5%	30.0%	18.2%	93.1	8.1%
	L14	2	7.58	3.48	8.7%	19.6%	50.0%	32.3%	16.1%	93.2	6.3%

Chatwood’s season has been a grind. He’s never had the best control, but to sustain a 19% walk rate throughout the course of the season and not lose your job in the starting rotation is impressive. He does have an ability to generate ground balls, but with a low strikeout rate, he’s constantly putting himself at the mercy of BABIP. There aren’t a lot of positives here outside of a matchup against the Diamondbacks, whose projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 28% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Of the four pitchers in the early slate, I’d rank Chatwood third.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Chatwood and they get to face him in Wrigley with the wind blowing out to right field. In terms of fantasy appeal, I’d rank their offense as my second favorite behind the Angels. With Chatwood’s high walk rate, the Diamondbacks should put plenty of runners in scoring position. In terms of splits, he has allowed a .352 xwOBA to lefties and a .360 xwOBA to righties this season. The only downside is that Chatwood is a high ground ball pitcher and this Diamondbacks’ lineup is loaded with high ground ball hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.326	84.3	0.107	37.8%	4.7%	14.8%	56.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.365	90.8	0.217	46.8%	12.5%	29.5%	41.0%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	David Peralta	LEFT	0.370	92.2	0.244	48.2%	8.1%	18.8%	48.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.399	89.7	0.263	44.2%	7.4%	20.3%	40.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
5	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.348	88.7	0.149	45.5%	11.3%	24.9%	50.9%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.304	88.0	0.129	30.1%	7.8%	15.2%	53.7%	2B	$3,000	2B/SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.359	88.7	0.210	41.2%	16.5%	23.9%	28.7%	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.337	92.1	0.139	54.9%	13.4%	42.9%	37.3%	C	$2,000	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Zack Godley	RIGHT	0.098	56.6	0.000	0.0%	5.0%	60.0%	33.3%	P	$8,700	P	$8,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.323	85.7	0.162	38.7%	9.6%	27.8%	43.3%

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are playing at home with the wind blowing out to right field. They know how to take advantage of this wind better than anyone. With that said, Zack Godley owns above-average strikeout and ground ball rates, so he has the skill set needed to pitch well in these conditions. Most notably, Godley’s ground ball rate is 59% when facing a left-handed hitter, compared to only 43% against righties. Even though this looks like a good spot on paper, the Cubs are my third favorite offense to target in this two-game early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.392	90.9	0.190	35.3%	12.3%	9.6%	38.4%	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
2	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.271	86.7	0.109	30.3%	5.5%	19.4%	50.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.364	89.3	0.153	33.3%	9.3%	9.7%	42.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.341	90.4	0.261	38.7%	3.1%	28.4%	43.5%	2B	$4,000	2B/SS	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.371	90.8	0.228	43.4%	19.0%	34.1%	34.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.388	90.1	0.294	43.1%	16.6%	25.6%	41.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.314	87.6	0.156	31.9%	8.0%	20.1%	49.7%	C	$3,000	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.300	86.6	0.100	32.6%	8.9%	21.3%	40.9%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.145	73.3	0.000	5.6%	0.0%	21.7%	71.4%	P	$5,800	P	$6,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.321	87.3	0.166	32.7%	9.2%	21.1%	45.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Javier Baez, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at LA Angels – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								LA Angels
			Dylan Covey							Nick Tropeano
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAA-185							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.331	0.338	38.5%	89.4	19.5%	54.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.355	0.367	41.4%	88.8	17.8%	39.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.347	32.0%	89.4	13.6%	60.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.343	42.4%	90.1	21.9%	31.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dylan Covey
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$6,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			16 of 22	Salary Rank:			13 of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	12	5.64	7.71	13.3%	11.0%	48.5%	36.5%	18.0%	92.6	6.2%
	2018	12	4.55	4.95	16.9%	9.9%	57.4%	35.4%	18.0%	94.0	7.3%
	L14	2	3.87	2.70	18.2%	7.3%	56.1%	26.8%	17.1%	94.6	8.8%

If you’ve been able to figure Covey out this season, you have probably won a lot of money on the slates that he has pitched. He opened the year with a nice stretch of starts and we all started to believe that he wasn’t a bad pitcher. He followed those up with an atrocious run of starts where he was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. Out of nowhere, he pitched a gem against the Mariners his last time out, nearly completing the complete game shutout. I have no idea what to expect from Covey today, but he’s not going to be featured in any of my lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Covey in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nick Tropeano
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			12 of 22	Salary Rank:			10 of 22	Salary Rank:

	2018	11	4.72	4.58	19.9%	9.8%	35.5%	41.9%	14.0%	90.3	11.7%
	L14	1	5.55	1.80	22.7%	18.2%	38.5%	15.4%	15.4%	91.1	13.3%

Tropeano isn’t a pitcher that I want to trust, but we don’t have many options here in this early slate. One has a massive walk rate and one has been more inconsistent than anyone this season. Even though Tropeano isn’t the most skilled pitcher around, at least we know what we can expect from him. In 11 starts this season, he has a 20% strikeout rate with a swinging strike rate of 11.7%. The reasoning behind the pick is more about the matchup and the ballpark. The White Sox projected lineup has an average k-rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: In a full slate, I wouldn’t play Tropeano, but he’s certainly viable in this two-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and have the lowest implied run total of the four early teams in action today. With that said, they are going to be low owned in tournaments and it’s not like we typically avoid hitters against Nick Tropeano. On the season, he has allowed a .367 xwOBA to lefties and a .343 xwOBA to righties. Jose Abreu has been swinging a hot bat recently and has much better numbers when facing a fly-ball pitcher. Yoan Moncada brings speed and power to the mix batting leadoff. Both are elite tournament options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.356	92.8	0.207	40.2%	9.6%	34.1%	29.8%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.315	85.6	0.174	28.5%	5.2%	17.4%	47.1%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.357	90.9	0.172	33.5%	5.8%	17.8%	44.6%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.387	92.9	0.272	42.1%	1.7%	23.3%	43.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.312	93.0	0.241	38.3%	5.1%	36.5%	40.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.345	86.2	0.154	26.4%	9.0%	17.4%	40.0%	C	$2,100	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.286	86.1	0.097	27.3%	3.5%	25.4%	53.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Nick Delmonico	LEFT	0.334	87.9	0.078	24.4%	10.3%	17.9%	40.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.281	85.5	0.161	26.1%	6.6%	25.7%	48.6%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.330	89.0	0.173	31.9%	6.3%	23.9%	43.1%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada (GPP), Jose Abreu (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada (Cash), Jose Abreu (Cash), Avisail Garcia

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Angels

The Angels get to face the Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde of pitchers tonight. Nobody ever knows which version of Dylan Covey is going to show up. When he’s on, he’s been an above-average pitcher. When he’s off, he’s been shelled on a regular basis. I’m going to trust the larger sample size here and will be siding with the Angels’ offense in this matchup. I always like when a pitcher throws primarily one type of pitch, as it allows us to dive into the splits in PlateIQ. Covey has thrown a sinker on 64% of his pitches this season. Here are the first five batters in the Angels’ lineup and how they have fared against sinkers this season — Kole Calhoun (.336 wOBA), Shohei Ohtani (.374 wOBA), Mike Trout (.430 wOBA), Justin Upton (.375 wOBA), and Albert Pujols (.394 wOBA).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.315	88.3	0.174	37.4%	5.8%	24.7%	49.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Shohei Ohtani	LEFT	0.416	92.5	0.296	44.9%	10.7%	24.6%	43.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.441	92.0	0.301	47.0%	20.3%	19.7%	34.5%	OF	$5,200	OF	$6,000	N/A	N/A
4	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.395	91.6	0.230	45.7%	12.2%	26.2%	43.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.375	90.4	0.184	42.6%	4.5%	12.9%	37.9%	1B	$2,600	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.356	87.3	0.117	36.5%	5.8%	4.3%	47.8%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.327	85.7	0.194	32.6%	7.8%	9.7%	38.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.269	83.7	0.123	28.5%	4.5%	24.8%	39.7%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	David Fletcher	RIGHT	0.254	80.8	0.043	18.0%	2.1%	14.9%	25.6%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.350	88.0	0.185	37.0%	8.2%	18.0%	40.1%

Elite Plays – Kole Calhoun, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Kansas City								NY Yankees
			Jakob Junis							Sonny Gray
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-280							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.345	0.338	41.4%	89.3	18.4%	39.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.369	40.0%	89.2	20.4%	44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.357	42.1%	89.0	24.2%	40.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	0.311	29.4%	89.1	21.8%	50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jakob Junis
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:			19 of 22	Salary Rank:			20 of 22	Salary Rank:		16 of 22
	2017	16	4.49	4.30	19.0%	5.9%	40.1%	36.7%	16.9%	91.2	8.9%
	2018	18	4.12	5.03	21.4%	6.6%	40.3%	41.7%	15.9%	91.1	9.3%
	L14	1	2.99	2.25	35.3%	11.8%	66.7%	33.3%	22.2%	92.1	9.1%

We kick off tonight’s nine-game slate with the Royals and Yankees in a game that could feature plenty of fireworks. Junis is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 42% hard contact rate this season. It’s no surprise that he has allowed 24 home runs in only 18 starts. While anything can happen in baseball, I’ll side with the Yankees at home in one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Junis in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:			9 of 22	Salary Rank:			7 of 22	Salary Rank:		6 of 22
	2017	27	4.08	3.55	22.6%	8.4%	52.8%	28.0%	16.8%	93.0	11.9%
	2018	19	4.36	5.34	21.2%	9.8%	47.6%	34.1%	16.9%	93.3	10.2%
	L14	2	3.28	1.59	31.1%	8.9%	46.2%	19.2%	38.5%	93.6	10.9%

Gray is a pitcher that I target more often than most. If you are a regular reader of the Grind Down, then you know that I’m infatuated with pitchers that have above-average ground ball and strikeout rates. Gray’s k-rate is down a little bit as a whole, but it has been trending upward over the last month of play. He’s cheap across the industry and he gets to face a Royals’ offense that has a higher strikeout rate against righties than most DFS players think. The only downside is that Gray has been terrible in this ballpark. In nine starts, he has an ERA close to 8.00 while only averaging seven fantasy points. He’s still one of the top pitchers on the board, but his splits at home keep me from hitting the lock button.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a significant ballpark boost playing in New York. Despite the bizarre high totals that we continue to see in games being played in Kansas City, Yankee Stadium is a much better ballpark for offensive production. Additionally, the Royals will be low owned across the industry, so there are some positives. A matchup against Sonny Gray isn’t ideal, but he has allowed a .369 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. With the short porch in right field, it’s hard not to have some interest in the likes of Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda, who both boast a .375+ xwOBA and a 43%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.333	86.4	0.082	39.3%	9.8%	18.3%	37.1%	2B	$3,800	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,700
2	Rosell Herrera	SWITCH	0.252	86.2	0.087	38.8%	4.1%	28.8%	51.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	2B	$5,500
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.388	90.7	0.243	47.1%	9.4%	14.8%	29.5%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,500
4	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.351	90.9	0.175	45.9%	2.5%	19.4%	35.0%	C	$3,200	C	$4,100	C	$8,200
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.378	89.9	0.192	43.4%	8.1%	24.8%	25.5%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,600
6	Jorge Bonifacio	RIGHT	0.307	87.9	0.170	37.5%	11.1%	27.8%	29.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.380	88.0	0.137	38.6%	7.5%	20.3%	47.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	LF	$5,500
8	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.320	89.9	0.167	35.1%	11.6%	34.8%	45.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,500
9	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.271	83.6	0.053	33.5%	4.9%	11.6%	45.5%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.331	88.2	0.145	39.9%	7.7%	22.3%	38.4%

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas (GPP), Lucas Duda (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas (Cash), Lucas Duda (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the highest implied run total on the board and it’s not particularly close. They lead the majors in home runs, they are playing at home in a home run-friendly ballpark, and they are facing a pitcher that has more home runs allowed (24) than starts (18) this season. See what I’m getting at here? This is a great spot for a Yankees’ stack and I honestly can’t remember saying that for quite some time. Jakob Junis isn’t particularly effective against lefties or righties, so we can load up on batters from both sides of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.309	87.2	0.166	29.6%	12.0%	14.4%	51.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,200
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.403	96.2	0.272	49.1%	12.6%	30.7%	45.1%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,000
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.349	88.6	0.253	39.1%	8.7%	11.9%	34.8%	SS	$3,500	SS	$5,000	SS	$9,900
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.306	91.8	0.184	33.9%	7.9%	33.2%	52.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,200
5	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.350	88.6	0.189	38.5%	13.7%	19.2%	45.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,200
6	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.385	88.3	0.242	38.7%	6.0%	26.2%	30.0%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.327	88.9	0.267	39.5%	8.5%	27.7%	37.0%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.347	89.6	0.182	36.1%	4.0%	17.3%	50.0%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,100
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.358	89.7	0.230	37.3%	11.0%	22.0%	42.4%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.348	89.9	0.221	38.0%	9.4%	22.5%	43.1%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird

Stackability – GREEN

NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Pittsburgh
			Steven Matz							Nick Kingham
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-155							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	0.290	11.6%	83.3	17.8%	68.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.348	0.357	31.5%	88.1	15.5%	40.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.332	38.0%	88.7	21.2%	44.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.260	0.288	37.2%	90.4	29.5%	44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Steven Matz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:		$12,700
	Salary Rank:			10 of 22	Salary Rank:			15 of 22	Salary Rank:		12 of 22
	2017	13	4.71	6.08	16.1%	6.4%	47.1%	32.9%	21.9%	93.1	7.1%
	2018	19	4.35	3.65	20.4%	8.8%	50.2%	31.9%	17.1%	93.2	8.3%
	L14	2	5.12	6.35	13.0%	5.6%	39.5%	31.8%	15.9%	93.9	9.4%

Matz is one of the few highly-touted Mets’ pitchers that never quite lived up to expectations, although he’s still way ahead of Matt Harvey in that department. In 19 starts this season, Matz has a 4.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He checks into tonight’s game against the Pirates as a sizable underdog. Not only is run support an issue for Mets’ starters, but Matz has one of the worst strikeout matchups of the slate. The projected lineup for Pittsburgh has an average xwOBA of .334 with a k-rate of only 17% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Matz in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nick Kingham
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:			5 of 22	Salary Rank:			4 of 22	Salary Rank:		5 of 22

	2018	10	3.87	4.11	22.7%	5.9%	42.2%	34.1%	17.4%	92.4	11.1%
	L14	2	3.45	3.55	24.5%	6.1%	55.9%	20.6%	26.5%	92.3	7.5%

Kingham has pitched well in his first ten major league starts. He owns a 3.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 6%. There have been a couple of poor outings mixed in, but that’s to be expected from a rookie pitcher. I don’t want to rely too heavily on home/road splits, but he has averaged 22 fantasy points (DK scoring) at home and only 11 fantasy points on the road. He’s affordable across the industry and draws an exploitable matchup against the Mets, whose projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Kingham is viable in all formats, although I prefer using him in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are sizable underdogs on the road, they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and they are facing a talented young righty in Nick Kingham. While they will be low owned, that shouldn’t ever be your sole reasoning behind a pick. I will likely be avoiding this offense completely, but Kingham has allowed a .357 xwOBA to lefties this season if you want to give Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Michael Conforto a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.368	90.2	0.251	36.7%	12.6%	27.4%	36.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,100
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.370	90.0	0.238	43.9%	8.0%	20.4%	40.5%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,100	SS	$8,100
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.321	86.6	0.215	35.3%	7.5%	9.3%	37.6%	1B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,500
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.357	87.8	0.157	36.0%	17.3%	20.9%	37.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,200
5	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.363	91.0	0.186	44.9%	16.2%	26.5%	30.8%	OF	$2,800	3B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,700
6	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.328	87.3	0.191	34.5%	5.9%	18.4%	31.9%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	C	$5,800
7	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.284	87.1	0.128	28.0%	5.5%	19.8%	48.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,300
8	Matt den Dekker	LEFT	0.165	83.8	0.000	22.2%	11.1%	38.9%	22.2%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,600
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.231	74.0	0.048	11.1%	0.0%	21.7%	43.8%	P	$7,600	P	$6,300	P	$12,700
	Team Averages		0.310	86.4	0.157	32.5%	9.3%	22.6%	36.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo (GPP), Asdrubal Cabrera (GPP), Michael Conforto (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have quietly hit left-handed pitching well this season and have quietly won nine of their last ten games. Their matchup against Steven Matz is fairly predictable. He has been tough on lefties throughout his career, but has allowed a .332 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to righties this season. He’s also the worst pitcher of the slate when it comes to holding runners. I have interest in any Pirates’ hitter that bats from the right side and has some speed. That list includes Josh Harrison and Starling Marte, who I don’t hesitate to list as elite plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.332	86.9	0.103	38.8%	4.8%	14.5%	34.7%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.356	89.1	0.231	32.2%	8.1%	23.3%	55.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	CF	$8,600
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.300	84.3	0.219	33.3%	10.7%	25.0%	30.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,300
4	Elias Diaz	RIGHT	0.430	90.6	0.259	42.9%	3.6%	8.9%	40.8%	C	$2,500	C	$3,500	C	$6,600
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.352	90.9	0.027	37.9%	9.4%	22.4%	56.9%	3B	$2,200	1B/3B	$3,400	3B	$6,900
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.328	89.9	0.139	27.9%	14.7%	21.1%	39.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,400
7	Jordan Luplow	RIGHT	0.372	89.9	0.333	12.5%	0.0%	11.1%	12.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,300
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.355	89.9	0.147	34.4%	6.0%	14.5%	34.4%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,700
9	Nick Kingham	RIGHT	0.179	70.9	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	14.3%	100.0%	P	$8,500	P	$9,400	P	$17,600
	Team Averages		0.334	86.9	0.162	31.1%	6.4%	17.2%	44.9%

Elite Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Elias Diaz, David Freese, Jordan Luplow

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Baltimore
			Hunter Wood							Alex Cobb
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-100							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.247	35.3%	80.9	27.6%	43.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.372	0.366	34.4%	88.1	18.5%	40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.248	0.314	40.9%	84.6	14.3%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.376	0.359	32.8%	90.1	12.0%	56.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Hunter Wood
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:			21 of 22	Salary Rank:			22 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22
	2017	0	13.42	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	90.0	0.0%
	2018	1	4.19	2.70	21.1%	10.5%	47.4%	38.5%	25.6%	93.9	13.4%
	L14	1	3.79	2.57	29.0%	12.9%	29.4%	33.3%	38.9%	95.1	17.9%

Wood will technically draw the start for the Rays, but this will be another bullpen start. It’s a bit frustrating too, as I really want to target as many pitchers as possible against the Orioles. They don’t have much in terms of talent and their offense has been reeling over the last month of play. With a limited floor and a limited ceiling, I can’t justify targeting Wood in a nine-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Wood in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$4,900	Salary:		$9,500
	Salary Rank:			17 of 21	Salary Rank:			19 of 21	Salary Rank:		15 of 21
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%	91.7	6.7%
	2018	18	4.62	6.17	15.2%	6.3%	49.3%	33.5%	19.2%	91.9	7.1%
	L14	2	4.76	2.38	14.9%	6.4%	42.9%	25.0%	22.2%	91.7	6.6%

Many were furious that the Orioles game was postponed last night (shoutout to Kevin Roth for seeing the trouble ahead of time), but I know of at least one person that was ecstatic. The three home runs given up by Dylan Bundy were all erased from the record books. Cobb will take his turn in the rotation tonight. He’s had a down year overall, posting a 4.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. There isn’t much to suggest an improvement anytime soon, but he has a revenge game against the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .306 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I likely won’t go here, but I suppose Cobb is viable as an SP2 in large-field tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays aren’t an offense that I target often, but they do see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Baltimore. They also draw an exploitable matchup against Alex Cobb, who has allowed a .366 xwOBA to lefties and a .359 xwOBA to righties this season. I won’t be going out of my way to target the Rays’ offense tonight, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers, or C.J. Cron found their way into a tournament lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.250	85.8	0.081	33.8%	8.9%	28.6%	53.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,100
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.328	86.9	0.101	30.9%	6.1%	15.0%	51.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,300
3	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.370	90.7	0.243	44.3%	15.0%	22.0%	38.0%	1B	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,500	1B	$9,200
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.349	87.2	0.220	36.1%	6.1%	24.9%	43.3%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,100
5	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.305	87.1	0.255	42.3%	6.0%	42.0%	34.6%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,200
6	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.308	89.7	0.121	35.7%	5.5%	20.6%	47.4%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,100
7	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.290	84.4	0.127	28.5%	8.8%	18.5%	44.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.300	85.7	0.093	36.2%	4.3%	17.3%	38.4%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
9	Jesus Sucre	RIGHT	0.257	83.7	0.027	25.0%	4.9%	12.2%	37.9%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$5,000
	Team Averages		0.306	86.8	0.141	34.8%	7.3%	22.3%	43.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers, C.J. Cron

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles don’t have much talent to work with at this stage of the season, but they are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they are cheap across the industry. They are still capable of putting up runs, although with Tampa Bay’s bullpen start strategy, it’s hard to predict which hitters will square off against which pitchers. They are far from core plays, but the fact that they are so cheap puts Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, and Mark Trumbo on my radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.284	86.3	0.081	28.1%	4.8%	27.6%	46.3%	SS	$2,800	3B	$3,400	SS	$6,300
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.263	85.7	0.208	27.0%	2.1%	22.9%	46.3%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,700
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.324	88.2	0.176	31.4%	3.4%	18.2%	41.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.364	93.4	0.205	42.2%	7.3%	25.1%	38.3%	OF	$3,000	1B/OF	$3,500	DH	$6,600
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.293	87.8	0.109	34.3%	7.4%	36.0%	42.4%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,400
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.356	90.3	0.155	32.4%	8.9%	24.7%	51.8%	OF	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
7	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.258	93.2	0.107	30.0%	3.4%	27.6%	40.0%	3B	$2,200	3B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,500
8	Austin Wynns	RIGHT	0.168	78.2	0.214	55.6%	6.3%	37.5%	50.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
9	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.310	87.2	0.162	31.0%	11.8%	25.0%	46.3%	OF	$2,000	3B/OF	$3,400	2B	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.291	87.8	0.157	34.7%	6.2%	27.2%	44.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 26th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Arizona at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox at LA Angels – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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