Sign In Get the App $ $

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-28 02:17:05

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Milwaukee at Washington – 12:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Washington
Article Image Michael Blazek Article Image Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-227 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.370 0.369 31.8% 16.5% 12.1% 40.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.292 30.2% 8.7% 26.0% 32.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.373 0.334 33.0% 9.2% 21.4% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.195 0.212 28.1% 3.6% 40.6% 37.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Blazek
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $7,800
Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 16 of 16 Salary Rank: 16 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 5.06 5.66 17.9% 13.4% 40.6% 32.6% 19.3%
2017 0 4.15 0.00 13.6% 0.0% 36.8% 31.6% 21.1%
L30 0 4.15 0.00 13.6% 0.0% 36.8% 31.6% 21.1%

Matt Garza was placed on the DL, which opened up a spot in the rotation. Blazek has done all of his major league work out of the bullpen, but he did make ten minor league starts earlier this season. He faces the tough task of facing Max Scherzer and a potent Nationals’ offense. Being a starter is a lot different than coming out of the bullpen and we typically see a pitcher’s strikeout rate decline when he makes the move. That doesn’t sound too promising for Blazek, who has an 18% strikeout rate last season and a 14% strikeout rate this season.

Quick Breakdown: Blazek should be avoided in both the early-only and the all-day slates.

Max Scherzer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,700 Salary: $13,800 Salary: $26,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 16 Salary Rank: 1 of 16 Salary Rank: 1 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 20 2.72 2.26 35.8% 6.2% 37.1% 27.7% 20.5%
L30 5 2.70 2.84 37.3% 7.1% 31.9% 34.8% 23.2%

Scherzer is doing his best to keep up with Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale as the best pitchers in baseball. He has somehow managed to improve on a near-perfect 2016 campaign. In 20 starts this season, he owns a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36%. He induces a lot of soft and medium contact and his home ballpark is great for pitching. Scherzer should have no issues mowing through a Brewers’ offense that has the second highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: If you are fading Scherzer in a three-game slate, you may be fading your winnings as well.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Max Scherzer is good at baseball. Scratch that, Max Scherzer is great at baseball. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, an elite SIERA, and an elite hard contact rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA in the last two seasons. If the Brewers’ offense is appealing to you in this early three-game slate, you may want to rethink your process.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.408 0.363 0.138 26.6% 15.2% 11.4% 40.2% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,300
2 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.334 0.289 42.1% 8.5% 23.4% 46.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
3 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.397 0.364 0.277 39.6% 9.8% 21.0% 46.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
4 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.368 0.326 0.193 34.7% 11.5% 29.3% 48.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
5 Eric Thames LEFT 0.395 0.348 0.291 42.4% 16.3% 26.9% 40.8% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $3,400 1B $6,600
6 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.251 0.264 0.123 34.4% 6.4% 28.4% 40.0% C $2,000 C $2,100 C $4,000
7 Brett Phillips LEFT 0.297 0.171 0.269 14.3% 10.3% 41.4% 35.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,400 CF $4,800
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.312 0.273 0.140 27.5% 4.7% 17.9% 51.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
9 Michael Blazek RIGHT P $5,500 P $4,000 P $7,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Michael Blazek will be making his first career major league start. He has made a bunch of appearances out of the bullpen, but starting a game is a completely different animal. He’s not a great pitcher to begin with and the nerves could end up getting to him. I don’t expect Blazek to pitch deep into this game, so the Nationals may see a few of the Brewers’ long relievers. Rather than trying to decipher which batters have the most favorable splits, I’m going to load up on hitters from both sides of the plate. It’s worth noting that the projected three through seven batters all have a .369+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.303 0.313 0.216 32.4% 9.6% 23.4% 40.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
2 Stephen Drew LEFT 0.274 0.253 0.114 28.2% 5.2% 20.8% 32.4% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.468 0.445 0.351 35.7% 18.4% 15.7% 37.2% OF $4,900 OF $5,800 RF $11,200
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.388 0.370 0.240 39.1% 7.2% 21.3% 45.7% 1B $3,300 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.405 0.379 0.250 36.2% 7.8% 8.1% 32.7% 2B $3,900 2B $5,400 2B $10,500
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.396 0.369 0.240 33.0% 14.1% 13.8% 37.6% 3B $3,700 3B $5,400 3B $10,400
7 Adam Lind LEFT 0.409 0.397 0.264 42.3% 9.5% 14.6% 44.2% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.230 0.332 0.149 33.3% 9.3% 26.7% 47.9% C $2,100 C $2,300 C $4,500
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.188 0.194 0.000 19.4% 4.4% 15.6% 74.2% P $11,700 P $13,800 P $26,800

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Stephen Drew or Wilmer Difo, Anthony Rendon, Adam Lind

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

LA Angels Cleveland
Article Image J.C. Ramirez Article Image Trevor Bauer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-145 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.332 36.1% 6.8% 17.6% 50.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.328 36.4% 8.5% 23.7% 41.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.283 29.5% 6.9% 19.2% 52.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.335 31.2% 9.3% 21.3% 53.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.C. Ramirez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 10 of 16 Salary Rank: 12 of 16 Salary Rank: 12 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.81 4.35 17.6% 6.6% 54.9% 26.4% 21.2%
2017 19 4.36 4.38 19.0% 7.0% 49.7% 37.1% 15.6%
L30 5 4.87 4.40 16.0% 9.6% 57.1% 32.6% 16.3%

Ramirez has been a serviceable starter for the Angels this season, but there have been a few cracks in the foundation recently. Over his last five starts, he has a SIERA of 4.87 with a strikeout rate of only 16%. The Angels’ starters haven’t had any success against the Indians so far in this series. Cleveland is an excellent offense, especially against right-handed pitching and especially at home. There are only three early games on the schedule, but there are four better pitching options in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Ramirez doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs that he’s likely going to allow against the Indians.

Trevor Bauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 8 of 16 Salary Rank: 6 of 16 Salary Rank: 6 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.22 4.26 20.7% 8.6% 48.7% 31.9% 19.0%
2017 19 4.02 5.58 25.7% 9.5% 46.5% 37.1% 13.7%
L30 4 4.79 5.82 22.0% 12.2% 41.5% 34.0% 9.4%

Bauer may not be as bad as his 5.58 ERA would lead you to believe, but there are enough red flags that we haven’t been able to trust him in DFS. He has an above-average strikeout rate, but he is allowing a ton of hard and medium contact. He’s been in bad form in his last five starts and he draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Angels, who have a low strikeout rate as a whole. Bauer is a favorite and he’s affordable, but I’d rather look to the A’s/Blue Jays game for an SP2 in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is too volatile to use in cash games and his upside is limited in a matchup against the low-strikeout Angels.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels have one of the least talented offenses in baseball. Outside of Mike Trout, they have little to no firepower. With that said, they have made the most of their roster by being a high-contact offense. They have made it tough on the Indians’ pitchers so far in this series and I expect that trend to continue today against Trevor Bauer. Since the start of last season, Bauer has allowed a .328 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He has also given up a 37% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.300 0.325 0.138 31.2% 7.6% 13.1% 57.0% 3B $2,800 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.481 0.461 0.429 45.3% 16.2% 20.9% 35.0% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 CF $10,800
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.290 0.320 0.156 35.1% 6.4% 15.2% 45.0% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
4 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.299 0.310 0.125 31.7% 9.8% 22.3% 40.7% OF $3,100 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.341 0.318 0.164 34.3% 5.6% 10.6% 51.6% SS $3,300 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
6 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.271 0.284 0.165 32.8% 10.0% 25.8% 38.8% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,500
7 Ben Revere LEFT 0.264 0.288 0.087 21.6% 3.8% 7.1% 58.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.303 0.286 0.185 27.5% 2.8% 23.5% 49.3% C $2,100 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.933 0.653 0.500 50.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3B $2,400 3B $4,800

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

J.C. Ramirez is a typical right-handed pitcher that allows a much higher xwOBA (.332) and hard contact rate (36%) to left-handed hitters. This bodes well for an Indians’ lineup that is currently projected to have five lefties in it. I wouldn’t completely rule out the right-handed hitters as part of an Indians’ stack, but Ramirez has held righties to a .283 xwOBA since the start of last season. The Indians’ stack remains viable today and we can load up on their bats in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.327 0.309 0.167 36.2% 9.1% 29.9% 46.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.307 0.326 0.205 31.0% 7.2% 13.8% 37.9% SS $3,800 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.368 0.364 0.157 39.2% 11.0% 13.3% 50.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 LF $9,200
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.351 0.356 0.241 36.6% 12.0% 22.1% 35.4% 1B $3,800 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.414 0.367 0.279 35.3% 8.6% 10.5% 35.4% 2B $3,600 2B/3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,300
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.337 0.364 0.193 35.2% 12.9% 20.6% 32.7% 1B $3,100 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.306 0.317 0.119 43.8% 11.8% 25.5% 38.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
8 Giovanny Urshela RIGHT 0.237 0.156 0.000 16.7% 7.1% 7.1% 58.3% 3B $2,300 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.236 0.243 0.051 23.6% 8.1% 27.9% 51.9% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,400

Elite Plays – Bradley Zimmer, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Oakland Toronto
Article Image Sean Manaea Article Image Marcus Stroman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-157 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.233 0.278 24.8% 4.5% 20.9% 56.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.306 32.8% 7.4% 19.6% 62.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.331 35.9% 7.9% 22.1% 42.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.305 29.1% 5.9% 19.9% 59.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Manaea
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 16 Salary Rank: 8 of 16 Salary Rank: 8 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.04 3.86 20.9% 6.2% 44.2% 33.6% 18.4%
2017 18 4.20 3.82 23.3% 8.6% 46.2% 33.9% 16.6%
L30 5 4.94 3.31 15.8% 7.2% 44.3% 28.3% 17.0%

Manaea got off to a hot start this season, but has struggled a bit in his last five starts. During that stretch, he has a 4.94 with an alarming low strikeout rate of 15%. He has historically pitched much better at home than he has on the road and his biggest weakness is right-handed power hitters. In case you have been living under a rock, the Blue Jays just so happen to have a number of righties that regularly feast on left-handed pitching. With concerns about the road start and the matchup, Manaea is a deep GPP play at best.

Quick Breakdown: If I had to rank the pitchers in the early slate, he’d be tied for third with Trevor Bauer.

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 4 of 16 Salary Rank: 3 of 16 Salary Rank: 3 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 20 3.75 2.98 20.4% 7.2% 62.4% 29.5% 21.9%
L30 5 3.80 1.06 21.5% 10.4% 68.9% 24.2% 25.3%

Stroman is a strong play in the early three-game slate, but that doesn’t mean that we should target him over Max Scherzer on single-pitcher sites. On multi-pitcher sites, the ideal combo is Scherzer/Stroman, but that’s nearly impossible to afford unless some major value opens up. That leaves Stroman in no man’s land. He may not have the highest strikeout rate around, but it’s right around the league average. He really excels at inducing ground balls, which allows him to limit hard contact and pitch well in any ballpark. The A’s do have the highest fly-ball rate in baseball, but they also have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is an elite play against the A’s, but I prefer Max Scherzer on single-pitcher sites. .

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

We have limited choices when it comes to hitters in the early slate, but Marcus Stroman is a tough pitcher to pick on. He has a massive 62% ground ball rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA since the start of last season. The one positive with Oakland is that they lead the majors in fly-ball rate, which helps against elite ground ball pitchers. But even with that, this is still a poor matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.325 0.346 0.212 31.8% 13.6% 21.0% 33.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.284 0.325 0.138 23.4% 14.1% 24.4% 31.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.392 0.388 0.278 33.1% 14.2% 23.9% 30.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.374 0.387 0.306 41.3% 10.1% 31.7% 40.7% OF $3,900 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
5 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.348 0.365 0.190 36.6% 9.2% 16.8% 27.3% 2B $2,500 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.301 0.315 0.199 38.5% 4.0% 27.9% 43.2% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $2,800 3B $5,400
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.381 0.302 0.373 38.9% 7.0% 28.1% 25.0% 3B $2,600 3B $2,600 3B $5,200
8 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.352 0.328 0.116 42.0% 16.9% 22.9% 44.0% C $2,300 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.282 0.264 0.120 25.0% 7.8% 21.4% 44.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a decent matchup against Sean Manaea, who has struggled on the road and against right-handed hitters in his career. He has also been in bad form over his last five starts, so this could be a good spot to target the ever-frustrating Blue Jays. They will likely have nine right-handed hitters in their lineup, which bodes well against Manaea, who has allowed a .331 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.250 0.271 0.102 26.7% 14.3% 27.6% 46.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.286 0.363 0.135 32.4% 18.5% 23.1% 29.7% C $2,800 C $3,500 C $6,900
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.326 0.358 0.146 40.6% 19.6% 17.6% 40.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.486 0.452 0.291 44.3% 13.0% 10.9% 35.7% 1B $3,700 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.385 0.367 0.207 40.3% 5.4% 21.7% 58.2% 1B $3,000 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.202 0.251 0.081 21.2% 6.1% 15.2% 63.5% SS $2,600 SS $2,800 SS $5,600
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.340 0.331 0.255 36.6% 6.3% 23.8% 36.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 1B $6,000
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.385 0.348 0.232 38.3% 7.6% 14.3% 36.3% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.270 0.272 0.013 12.1% 12.5% 21.6% 40.4% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,000 2B $4,000

Elite Plays – Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Steve Pearce

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
Article Image Chris Archer Article Image CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-116 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.299 36.2% 8.8% 28.3% 44.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.277 17.9% 9.6% 22.8% 54.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.296 33.7% 7.0% 28.1% 45.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.299 29.2% 8.5% 18.7% 49.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 16 Salary Rank: 4 of 16 Salary Rank: 4 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 47.8% 32.8% 18.0%
2017 21 3.49 3.77 29.3% 7.7% 41.4% 38.0% 16.3%
L30 5 3.49 3.41 29.7% 8.0% 37.8% 30.6% 18.8%

Archer is having another great season, posting a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. His command is always good and he rarely has a truly bad outing. He’s also shown a high floor with at least eight strikeouts in six of his last eight starts. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Archer would typically be an easy fade given viable alternatives, but we don’t have many of those in tonight’s five game slate. Every pitcher has his drawbacks, which puts Archer in play in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: The Yankees have struggled against elite pitchers this season and Archer has the most upside of anyone in the slate. He’s viable in all formats.

CC Sabathia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 9 of 16 Salary Rank: 6 of 16 Salary Rank: 6 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 16 4.68 3.44 18.9% 9.3% 50.2% 32.3% 21.4%
L30 3 6.58 3.29 14.8% 18.0% 52.5% 30.0% 30.0%

Sabathia no longer owns an elite strikeout rate, but he has an above-average ground ball rate and he’s surprisingly one of the best at inducing soft and medium contact. I’m 99% sure that I have yet to roster Sabathia this season, but I’d be lying if I said that I have no interest tonight. On the season, the Rays are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 30th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. If you are planning to fade Chris Archer in tournaments, you can double down by using Sabathia as a leverage play.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia draws a favorable matchup against the strikeout-prone Rays. He’s viable in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays struggle against left-handed pitching as a whole, but they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium. They also have a nice track record against CC Sabathia, who has historically struggled against right-handed hitters. Evan Longoria has some of the best BvP that I’ve ever seen: 30-for-74 with nine doubles and seven home runs. Whether or not you are a fan of BvP, those numbers should grab your attention. Outside of Longoria, Wilson Ramos and Trevor Plouffe are also viable punt plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.307 0.317 0.110 37.5% 8.8% 28.6% 53.6% SS $2,600 SS $2,600 SS $5,200
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.378 0.288 0.209 30.9% 4.2% 25.4% 49.4% OF $2,800 OF $4,400 LF $8,700
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.281 0.320 0.171 41.3% 12.9% 22.6% 52.5% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
4 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.329 0.266 0.093 26.9% 13.4% 26.8% 47.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.405 0.404 0.313 33.3% 5.9% 5.9% 46.7% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.350 0.337 0.218 29.8% 14.0% 23.7% 36.8% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
7 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.303 0.352 0.058 39.6% 8.0% 21.3% 47.2% 2B $2,000 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.307 0.301 0.160 33.3% 3.6% 10.7% 50.0% SS $2,300 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.331 0.283 0.193 40.5% 8.1% 24.2% 45.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,400

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

It’s hard to find a team that has good BvP against Chris Archer, but the Yankees is at the very least decent. Their current roster has faced him in 158 at-bats and they have combined for a .345 wOBA. The Yankees’ track record gives me more hope in a potential Archer fade than it does in a Yankees’ stack. This is still a poor matchup, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.360 0.340 0.216 36.7% 11.5% 19.0% 39.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.348 0.336 0.300 53.3% 2.4% 26.2% 36.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.443 0.446 0.337 48.5% 15.0% 31.0% 39.1% OF $4,700 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.360 0.367 0.209 37.1% 8.2% 24.5% 42.7% C $3,300 C $4,200 C $8,100
5 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.355 0.238 32.1% 10.6% 24.8% 46.2% OF $2,800 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.381 0.279 0.240 25.5% 4.3% 13.5% 40.4% SS $3,100 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.350 0.331 0.128 28.0% 13.2% 23.3% 42.8% 1B $2,700 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.312 0.346 0.191 29.0% 13.5% 21.7% 38.5% 3B $3,000 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
9 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.282 0.338 0.136 31.3% 15.4% 23.1% 37.5% OF $2,200 SS $2,900 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Miami
Article Image Robert Stephenson Article Image Chris O’Grady
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-133 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.413 0.397 45.2% 12.7% 20.4% 31.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.243 0.246 15.4% 12.5% 33.3% 23.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.390 0.333 37.0% 10.9% 19.5% 42.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.417 0.403 40.7% 16.7% 19.1% 25.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robert Stephenson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 15 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 5.12 6.08 18.2% 11.2% 34.5% 37.9% 17.2%
2017 1 4.61 8.10 21.9% 12.3% 41.5% 43.8% 13.5%
L30 1 3.96 8.44 20.0% 8.0% 64.7% 61.1% 11.1%

Stephenson is making his second start of the season and only his tenth in the last two years combined. He has shown some nice upside in the minors this season, posting a 3.31 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 28%. We’ve yet to see it at the major league level though, and tonight he faces a Marlins’ offense that put up a whopping 22 runs last night in Texas. Obviously, those were near-perfect hitting conditions with the heat and humidity, but Miami isn’t an offense that we should be picking on right now.

Quick Breakdown: Stephenson is an easy fade as a road underdog against a low-strikeout Marlins’ offense.

Chris O’Grady
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 13 of 16 Salary Rank: 13 of 16 Salary Rank: 13 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 5.23 5.40 24.2% 15.2% 25.0% 32.5% 10.0%
L30 3 5.23 5.40 24.2% 15.2% 25.0% 32.5% 10.0%

O’Grady will be making his fourth career major league start tonight. If we take a look at his minor league numbers, there isn’t a lot that jumps off the page. In nine Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 4.30 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 24%. His command has been an issue so far in the majors, which likely has something to do with nerves and better plate discipline of big league hitters. Even though we only have five games on the schedule tonight, it doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with O’Grady. He draws a difficult matchup against the Reds, who are ranked above the major league average in team wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: O’Grady might be favored tonight, but both of these pitchers are too risky to trust in a DFS setting.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds make my job simple when they face a left-handed pitcher. They have three batters that mash southpaws – Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, and Adam Duvall, while the rest of their lineup struggles. The sample size with Chris O’Grady is still small, but he has struggled with right-handed hitters in his first three major league starts. Suarez and Duvall are both excellent plays that could fly under the radar in this ballpark. I never hesitate to use Votto in a lefty/lefty matchup, but he’s more of a deep GPP flier at the always-loaded first base.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.225 0.205 0.081 16.7% 0.0% 24.3% 45.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.401 0.371 0.230 39.6% 16.5% 24.2% 45.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.416 0.406 0.326 31.7% 16.8% 12.4% 49.4% 1B $3,600 1B $5,100 1B $9,900
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.402 0.369 0.314 33.8% 7.4% 20.0% 41.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.256 0.206 0.137 22.2% 3.8% 28.3% 52.8% 2B $3,200 2B/OF $4,300 2B $8,400
6 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.312 0.328 0.186 30.0% 12.0% 26.0% 36.7% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $4,800
7 Patrick Kivlehan RIGHT 0.357 0.341 0.220 30.0% 10.9% 23.9% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 3B $4,800
8 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.271 0.261 0.063 22.0% 3.1% 13.3% 59.3% SS $2,000 2B/SS $2,600 2B $5,200
9 Robert Stephenson RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $4,600 P $9,200

Elite Plays -Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Devin Mesoraco, Patrick Kivlehan

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins aren’t going to match the 22 runs that they put up last night in Texas, but they draw a favorable matchup against Robert Stephenson at home. In nine starts over the last two seasons, Stephenson has allowed a .397 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .333 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He has also given up a 45% hard contact rate to lefties. This would have been the perfect matchup for Justin Bour, but he was placed on the 10-day DL with an oblique strain. A Marlins’ stack is firmly in play here with the one through five hitters the preferred targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.309 0.268 0.068 19.3% 4.9% 13.4% 56.4% 2B $3,500 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.386 0.375 0.301 37.8% 9.6% 25.8% 43.1% OF $4,400 OF $5,700 RF $11,100
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.336 0.351 0.125 37.7% 11.6% 18.7% 58.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.390 0.371 0.266 44.1% 7.4% 23.0% 45.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 LF $8,700
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.333 0.332 0.146 30.7% 6.1% 15.5% 50.7% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.270 0.281 0.135 32.9% 4.7% 18.7% 38.7% 3B $2,200 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
7 Tyler Moore RIGHT 0.386 0.316 0.344 35.6% 4.5% 27.3% 31.1% 1B $2,000 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
8 Mike Aviles RIGHT 0.346 0.362 0.000 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2B/OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,800
9 Chris O’Grady LEFT 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 100.0% P $5,700 P $5,700 P $11,200

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious