MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-10 02:32:13

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Texas at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Texas					Colorado
			A.J. Griffin					Tyler Chatwood
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -110					12.0
SP vs. Left	0.376	11	45.9%	20.1%	SP vs. Left	0.303	3	27.6%	16.7%
SP vs. Right	0.257	2	33.0%	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.325	6	31.5%	14.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
A.J. Griffin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$5,000
					FPPG:		25.8	FPPG:		13.0
					Pitcher Rating:		30.9	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	5	86.8	5.45	5.81	13.8%	7.3%	7.6%	25.9%	46.9%	47.0%
2016	14	90.4	4.73	4.05	19.7%	9.2%	8.4%	31.9%	46.7%	39.6%

We have a single day game on the schedule on Tuesday and it should be a fun one. If you are looking for a reason to play in the all-day slate, Coors Field should produce a lot of runs between these two teams. Griffin has been in bad form coming into this start, posting a 5.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.8% in his last five outings. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that should struggle against a left-handed heavy lineup of the Rockies.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Chatwood
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		27.9	FPPG:		13.1
					Pitcher Rating:		25.5	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	5	93.4	5.96	5.54	15.6%	16.4%	6.2%	49.4%	28.4%	36.6%
2016	20	92.9	4.87	3.63	15.4%	10.8%	7.1%	56.3%	25.4%	29.6%

Chatwood has not fared well over the last month of play, posting a 5.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.6%. His command has been off all season and even though he produces a lot of ground balls, he still gives up a hard hit contact rate close to 30%. The Rangers’ offense is stacked right now and on the season they are ranked tenth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have the highest run projection of all 30 teams in action today. They are playing in the best hitter’s park in baseball and they are facing a pitcher that has really struggled in his last few starts. You can stack the Rangers in cash games and tournaments in this one. Give a slight edge to the right-handed hitters, as Tyler Chatwood has been a reverse-splits pitcher this season.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.65 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 6.06 (1 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.307	0.165	0.220	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,900
2	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.337	0.217	0.368	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,900
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.352	0.208	0.349	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.309	0.145	0.316	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,200
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.356	0.231	0.477	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,500
6	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.289	0.086	0.321	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,300
7	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.350	0.170	0.287	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,700
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.312	0.219	0.219	C	$3,400	C	$3,600
9	A.J. Griffin	RIGHT				P	$6,800	P	$5,000
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.180	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies may be small underdogs today, but they still come into the game with the second highest implied team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against A.J. Griffin, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate close to 40%. I like the Rockies’ chances of scoring double-digits today and will be loading up on their hitters in all league formats.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.22 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.94 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.359	0.182	0.395	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,500
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.340	0.111	0.357	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,600
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.411	0.288	0.432	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,600
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.382	0.303	0.334	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,200
5	David Dahl	LEFT	0.423	0.279	0.418	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,000
6	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.335	0.175	0.380	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,700
7	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.311	0.120	0.313	SS	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,400
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.337	0.171	0.197	C	$3,200	C	$3,400
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.251	0.000	0.000	P	$6,700	P	$6,400
	Team Averages	—	0.350	0.181	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Mark Reynolds, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Cleveland					Washington
			Trevor Bauer					Max Scherzer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -180					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.310	17	33.7%	22.0%	SP vs. Left	0.296	25	28.4%	26.8%
SP vs. Right	0.310	18	30.5%	22.0%	SP vs. Right	0.221	26	27.6%	36.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Trevor Bauer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,200
					FPPG:		25.0	FPPG:		12.7
					Pitcher Rating:		51.2	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	4	95.5	5.73	8.50	16.7%	14.6%	8.6%	35.9%	35.9%	37.9%
2016	17	118.7	4.32	4.08	20.8%	9.5%	9.2%	47.4%	32.6%	33.6%
2015	30	95.6	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

Bauer was a fairly popular play in his last outing and he let a lot of people down. He has been in bad form in the last month, posting a 5.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.7% and a walk rate of 14.6%. We used to be able to target right-handed pitchers against the Nationals, but that is no longer the case. Now that they are healthy, they have one of the most formidable lineups in the National League. Bauer is an easy fade for me, even at the discounted price.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Max Scherzer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,800	Salary:		$12,900
					FPPG:		46.0	FPPG:		26.5
					Pitcher Rating:		95.6	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	107.6	2.84	1.75	31.4%	4.4%	15.1%	34.1%	48.2%	30.2%
2016	23	105.8	2.90	2.87	32.5%	6.2%	15.2%	34.4%	47.2%	27.9%
2015	33	101.8	2.63	2.79	30.7%	3.8%	15.3%	35.8%	45.4%	28.1%

Scherzer has one single green box in his pitching table above. Every single statistic other than his walk rate this season is considered elite. He currently owns a 2.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32.5%. He draws a difficult matchup on paper against the Indians, but he gets to face them at home and without a DH. Since the game is being played in a National League ballpark, Trevor Bauer will be forced to hit. Scherzer is the premier pitching option tonight and is the recommended cash game target on all sites.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians come into tonight’s game with the second lowest implied team total on the board. While they have mashed right-handed pitching as a team this season, they haven’t faced many righties that have two different colored eyes. In addition to the intimidating look, Scherzer also has an elite strikeout rate and good splits against both left and right-handed hitters.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (14 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.99 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.380	0.187	0.379	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,800
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.346	0.155	0.305	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,200
3	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.314	0.201	0.482	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,800
4	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.315	0.126	0.468	P	$4,000	P	$4,000
5	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.317	0.148	0.278	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,400
6	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.321	0.163	0.305	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
7	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.422	0.295	0.374	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800
8	Chris Gimenez	RIGHT	0.271	0.127	0.321	C	$2,000	C	$2,000
9	Trevor Bauer	RIGHT	0.098	0.000		P	$7,500	P	$6,200
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.156	0.364	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have been much better offensively since calling up Trea Turner and getting a couple of their other batters healthy. They are now ranked above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Trevor Bauer, who has allowed a .310 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.345	0.209	0.381	SS	$3,600	2B/OF	$4,000
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.293	0.134	0.341	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.429	0.294	0.226	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,900
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.379	0.226	0.373	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,100
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.321	0.155	0.450	C	$3,000	C	$5,000
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.323	0.145	0.455	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200
7	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.307	0.167	0.282	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,100
8	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.293	0.077	0.180	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.180	0.012	0.176	P	$11,800	P	$12,900
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.158	0.318	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
San Diego					Pittsburgh
			Luis Perdomo					Chad Kuhl
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -142					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.364	8	38.7%	13.4%	SP vs. Left	0.353	1	39.5%	10.6%
SP vs. Right	0.393	5	25.5%	19.1%	SP vs. Right	0.276	1	41.7%	23.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Luis Perdomo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		12.7	FPPG:		4.8
					Pitcher Rating:		44.7	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	5	95.0	4.36	4.20	13.4%	6.0%	8.0%	58.1%	25.7%	32.7%
2016	11	140.1	4.08	6.67	16.5%	7.9%	9.6%	57.7%	21.8%	31.9%

Perdomo hasn’t had the most dominant season in 2016, posting a 4.08 SIERA (6.67 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 16.5%. The Pirates’ offense has been cold over the last month of play, but I’m not sure Perdomo has enough upside to warrant consideration even in the deepest of GPPs. He comes into the game as a sizable underdog and the over/under is set at 8.5 runs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chad Kuhl
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		20.5	FPPG:		10.1
					Pitcher Rating:		61.2	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	2	70.5	4.54	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	11.4%	29.2%	54.2%	42.3%
2016	4	78.3	5.01	4.19	16.1%	6.2%	9.0%	30.5%	52.5%	40.3%

Kuhl will be making his fourth major league start tonight. His best outing was his last one, as he threw six scoreless innings against the Nationals. He had good numbers in the minors this season, but hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout upside at any level. The good news is that he gets to face a Padres’ offense that is ranked 29th in both team wOBA and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Kuhl makes for an interesting GPP flier at this price.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres’ offense was rolling in the month of July, but they have since calmed down. They are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball when it comes to hitting right-handed pitching. Despite a decent matchup against the rookie Chad Kuhl, the Padres come into tonight’s game with the ninth lowest implied team total on the board. The left-handed hitters could make interesting one-off plays in tournaments, but the rest of the offense can be avoided.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.294 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.4% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.47 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.00 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.331	0.106	0.380	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.340	0.201	0.414	1B	$3,900	1B	$5,300
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.340	0.176	0.316	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$4,000
4	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.369	0.261	0.502	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700
5	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.374	0.342	0.270	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,700
6	Jabari Blash	RIGHT	0.301	0.083	0.386	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,600
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.277	0.155	0.141	C	$2,800	C	$2,400
8	Jose Rondon	RIGHT	0.158	0.000	0.145	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,600
9	Luis Perdomo	RIGHT	0.103	0.000	0.000	P	$6,300	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.288	0.147	0.284	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have let us down more often than not when they have been in a favorable situation, especially in the last few weeks. We shouldn’t have a bias against them though, because having biases in DFS does more harm than good. Pittsburgh has the tenth highest run projection tonight, as they square off against Luis Perdomo. The sample size is small, but Perdomo has allowed a .364 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .393 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.95 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.52 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.50 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.293	0.105	0.341	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,200
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.340	0.165	0.395	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,200
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.356	0.155	0.425	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,300
4	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.349	0.179	0.281	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.353	0.191	0.259	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,900
6	John Jaso	LEFT	0.334	0.139	0.196	1B	$2,800	1B	$2,900
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.321	0.076	0.305	C	$2,700	C	$3,000
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.273	0.075	0.258	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800
9	Chad Kuhl	RIGHT				P	$6,300	P	$6,800
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.136	0.308	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Andrew McCucthen, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Tampa Bay					Toronto
			Drew Smyly					Marco Estrada
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -185					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.302	6	33.0%	34.8%	SP vs. Left	0.276	23	28.5%	19.6%
SP vs. Right	0.328	28	31.1%	23.2%	SP vs. Right	0.260	15	30.6%	21.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Smyly
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$9,300
					FPPG:		27.6	FPPG:		14.7
					Pitcher Rating:		59.6	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	4	94.8	4.38	3.75	20.6%	5.2%	8.4%	25.0%	50.0%	34.7%
2016	21	97.6	3.83	5.14	24.3%	6.1%	10.8%	31.5%	47.6%	31.3%
2015	12	94.7	3.25	3.10	28.0%	7.3%	11.4%	36.8%	44.3%	31.6%

Smyly has been dominant at times and very hittable at other times. He comes into tonight’s start in mediocre form, posting a 4.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.6% in his last four starts. The real issue here isn’t Smyly’s form, it’s his matchup. The Blue Jays’ lineup is littered with right-handed power bats and if you remember back to a season ago, Toronto led the majors in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$11,500
					FPPG:		35.7	FPPG:		20.1
					Pitcher Rating:		72.5	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	3	98.7	3.98	2.84	20.3%	3.8%	11.8%	35.1%	40.4%	27.6%
2016	19	100.3	4.17	2.92	23.5%	8.6%	10.8%	34.5%	47.4%	32.6%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Estrada is an intriguing play tonight, but it’s hard to justify paying that ridiculous $11,500 price tag on DraftKings. Estrada isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher by any means and he is pitching in a hitter’s ballpark tonight. He is definitely worth a look on FanDuel though, as he comes into the game as one of the heaviest favorites on the board. He draws an excellent matchup against the Rays, who are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 27th in team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

You would think that a pitcher that has an extreme fly-ball rate and a hard hit contact rate of 32.6% would get rocked harder than Marco Estrada does. That hasn’t been the case this season though, as Estrada has somehow managed to keep both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA. Brad Miller is the one play that stands out here. He has a .495 wOBA over the last 14 days of play.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.9% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.00 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.01 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.325	0.123	0.310	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,400
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.315	0.175	0.290	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.327	0.194	0.313	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,200
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.349	0.220	0.495	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,600
5	Nick Franklin	SWITCH	0.287	0.171	0.302	2B	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,000
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.344	0.262	0.223	OF	$3,300	OF	$2,800
7	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.314	0.166	0.326	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.298	0.198	0.284	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$2,900
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.169	0.061	0.152	C	$2,000	C	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.303	0.174	0.299	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays haven’t been nearly as good against left-handed pitching as they were in 2015, but they are still ranked 12th or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K%. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Drew Smyly, who has allowed a .328 wOBA and 28 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. I also like targeting the right-handed power bats in this lineup, especially when they are playing at home.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.174 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.9% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.87 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.99 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.324	0.180	0.441	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,100
2	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.346	0.216	0.295	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.428	0.298	0.362	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,400
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.374	0.269	0.331	1B	$4,400	1B	$4,800
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.422	0.327	0.233	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.364	0.184	0.323	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,200
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.361	0.192	0.372	C	$3,000	C	$3,500
8	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.358	0.231	0.127	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.303	0.098	0.109	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.364	0.222	0.288	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Arizona					NY Mets
			Zack Greinke					Steven Matz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -125					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.267	13	25.8%	21.3%	SP vs. Left	0.330	2	18.0%	19.1%
SP vs. Right	0.235	13	29.5%	23.7%	SP vs. Right	0.295	14	31.4%	23.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zack Greinke
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$11,100
					FPPG:		32.7	FPPG:		17.2
					Pitcher Rating:		69.5	Pitcher Rank:		8
2016	17	96.8	3.86	3.62	20.3%	4.7%	10.8%	47.6%	33.9%	29.4%
2015	32	101.2	3.27	1.66	23.7%	4.7%	12.0%	48.0%	32.9%	26.8%

Greinke is making his first start in over a month, as he was placed on the DL with an oblique injury. He says that he is 100% healthy, but we should expect the Diamondbacks to play it safe with him moving forward. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being on some sort of pitch count tonight. While I love the matchup against the Mets in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field, I’m going to give Greinke a start or two before targeting him in DFS.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Steven Matz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$8,800
					FPPG:		29.0	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		76.8	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	99.4	4.10	4.50	20.6%	6.9%	9.7%	40.9%	28.4%	34.8%
2016	20	96.4	3.61	3.63	22.4%	5.6%	9.7%	50.4%	28.3%	30.2%
2015	6	96.0	3.63	2.27	22.8%	6.7%	8.3%	45.5%	33.7%	21.2%

Matz hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but a subpar Matz is still better than most. On the season, he owns a 3.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.4% and a walk rate of 5.6%. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Diamondbacks, who are ranked first in team wOBA and 18th in team K% against southpaws this season. Matz does get to pitch at home tonight, but given the matchup against Paul Goldschmidt and company, I see him as more of a GPP play.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Despite being ranked first in team wOBA and second in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season, the Diamondbacks come into tonight’s game with the third lowest run projection on the board. I won’t be heavily targeting any of these hitters in cash games, but Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, and Yasmany Tomas all stand out as potential one-off GPP plays.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.348 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.200 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.2% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.76 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.43 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.35 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.315	0.117	0.340	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900
2	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.281	0.168	0.242	OF	$2,400	3B/OF	$2,400
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.452	0.246	0.338	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,300
4	Rickie Weeks	RIGHT	0.359	0.211	0.377	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.377	0.275	0.307	C	$2,700	C	$3,800
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.373	0.249	0.474	OF	$3,200	OF	$5,000
7	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.283	0.157	0.356	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000
8	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.266	0.143	0.208	SS	$2,400	OF/SS	$3,000
9	Zack Greinke	RIGHT	0.233	0.033		P	$10,200	P	$11,100
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.178	0.330	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The Mets come into tonight’s game with one of the lowest run projections on the board, even though they are small favorites against Zack Greinke. This is one of those matchups where I want to avoid both the pitcher and the offense that he is facing. Despite his struggles this season, Greinke has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA in the last two seasons combined.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.72 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.65 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alejandro De Aza	LEFT	0.319	0.150	0.386	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,700
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.314	0.171	0.203	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,300
3	James Loney	LEFT	0.328	0.108	0.316	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,000
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.330	0.171	0.493	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,700
5	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.356	0.247	0.261	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.275	0.111	0.299	3B	$2,800	3B	$2,700
7	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.257	0.056	0.272	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600
8	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.224	0.112	0.379	C	$2,100	C	$2,200
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.185	0.027	0.690	P	$9,300	P	$8,800
	Team Averages	—	0.288	0.128	0.367	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 9th

Stackability Rating System:

Texas at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Mark Reynolds, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Andrew McCucthen, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

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