MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-18 02:26:52

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 6:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					Cleveland
			Alfredo Simon					Danny Salazar
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -240					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.381	21	13.5%	9.0%	SP vs. Left	0.284	15	28.4%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.338	12	16.3%	7.9%	SP vs. Right	0.279	10	25.3%	9.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Alfredo Simon
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
				FPPG:		12.4	FPPG:
				Pitcher Rating:		29.3	Pitcher Rank:		28
L14 Days	2	4.47	15.1%	5.7%	6.2%	46.2%	35.9%	18.0%	2.63
2016	6	4.61	17.8%	9.6%	9.1%	45.7%	34.8%	28.3%	3.00
2015	31	4.88	14.3%	8.3%	8.1%	43.6%	34.6%	31.7%	1.16

Simon has been an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS. Through six starts this season, he has a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.8%. He doesn’t fare particularly well against hitters from either side of the plate and he has allowed 33 home runs in his last 37 starts. He should not be on your radar against the Indians (or any other team for that matter). Simon checks in as the second largest underdog in the entire slate tonight.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Danny Salazar
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,100	Salary:
				FPPG:		42.3	FPPG:
				Pitcher Rating:		85.9	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	2	3.02	36.5%	13.5%	14.6%	65.4%	26.9%	30.8%	0.71
2016	7	3.57	31.4%	13.0%	13.4%	52.7%	37.6%	24.7%	0.42
2015	30	3.39	25.8%	7.0%	11.8%	43.9%	37.4%	28.9%	1.12

If you are playing in the early-only slate on FanDuel, you can certainly take a look at Salazar. He is an elite strikeout pitcher that has started off the season well. In his first seven starts, he has a 3.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.4%. His high walk rate is a small concern, but his ability to rack up strikeouts more than makes up for it. His price on FanDuel is also very playable at only $9,100. Oh, and don’t let me forget the favorable matchup. On the season, the Reds are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 24th in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are a below-average offense that is facing an above-average pitcher. There is a reason why they have the fifth lowest team total on the board. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Danny Salazar has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.291 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.3% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.19 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.320	0.187	0.316	SS	$3,500
2	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.244	0.050	0.308	OF	$2,800
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.406	0.222	0.389	1B	$3,600
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.321	0.128	0.369	2B	$2,800
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.322	0.238	0.355	OF	$3,600
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.306	0.152	0.293	3B	$2,800
7	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.384	0.333	0.535	OF	$3,700
8	Jordan Pacheco	RIGHT	0.274	0.117	0.136	C	$2,000
9	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.299	0.093	0.234	C	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.169	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Cleveland

The Indians draw a favorable matchup against Alfredo Simon, who has been one of the most hittable starters in baseball over the last two seasons. In addition to the 33 home runs he has allowed during that stretch, he has given up a .381 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters. With the third highest team total on the board, you can load up on Indians’ hitters in the early-only slate.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.51 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.81 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.336	0.206	0.288	1B	$3,000
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.389	0.173	0.391	2B	$3,600
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.331	0.129	0.325	SS	$3,500
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.287	0.164	0.399	1B	$3,300
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.310	0.132	0.410	P	$4,000
6	Juan Uribe	RIGHT	0.295	0.123	0.230	3B	$2,100
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.281	0.186	0.231	C	$2,700
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.329	0.089	0.302	OF	$2,200
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.307	0.155	0.103	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.151	0.298	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					Pittsburgh
			Aaron Blair					Juan Nicasio
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -185					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.374	1	4.6%	15.9%	SP vs. Left	0.410	4	21.0%	15.3%
SP vs. Right	0.260	0	12.8%	10.3%	SP vs. Right	0.261	2	26.5%	8.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Aaron Blair
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$6,400
				FPPG:		13.5	FPPG:		5.8
				Pitcher Rating:		20.2	Pitcher Rank:		30
L14 Days	2	6.64	7.3%	14.6%	7.7%	43.8%	28.1%	21.9%	1.04
2016	4	6.46	8.4%	13.3%	6.9%	39.1%	35.9%	21.5%	0.45

Blair is making his fourth career major league start. He hasn’t enjoyed any success just yet, as he currently sports a 6.46 SIERA with a walk rate (13.3%) that is higher than his strikeout rate (8.4%). We generally like to avoid any pitcher with a K/BB ratio less than 2.00 and Blair’s is under 1.00. He should be avoided in all league formats tonight against the Pirates, who have the fifth highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Juan Nicasio
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,300
				FPPG:		29.3	FPPG:		15.0
				Pitcher Rating:		76.4	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	4.40	17.0%	6.4%	10.0%	38.2%	35.3%	17.1%	1.74
2016	7	3.98	23.6%	9.6%	7.6%	41.6%	36.6%	17.3%	1.21
2015	1	3.77	25.0%	12.3%	11.0%	43.3%	31.8%	23.5%	0.15

Nicasio is always on my radar when he is pitching at home in PNC Park. In his first seven starts of the season, he owns a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.6%. He generates a high swinging strike rate and he has held batters to a 17.3% hard hit contact rate this season. He draws one of the top matchups on the board, as the Braves are ranked 29th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Nicasio could be a cheap source of a win and he offers nice strikeout upside as well.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

With the exception of Freddie Freeman, I have been avoiding the Braves’ offense all season. They are ranked near or at the bottom of basically every offensive category this season. They come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest team total on the board. You can look to Freeman in GPPs once again, but the rest of the Braves should be avoided against Juan Nicasio.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.277 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.079 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.08 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.26 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.344	0.093	0.220	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.348	0.119	0.191	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.384	0.227	0.419	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,300
4	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.318	0.161	0.346	3B	$2,400	2B/OF	$2,900
5	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.331	0.133	0.261	C	$2,400	C	$3,100
6	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.280	0.127	0.383	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,500
7	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.275	0.070	0.243	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800
8	Aaron Blair	RIGHT	0.294	0.000	0.442	P	$5,300	P	$6,400
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.338	0.156	0.276	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.121	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have the fifth highest team total on the board tonight, as they square off against Aaron Blair at home. The sample size for Blair’s splits is obviously too small to put any stock into, but you have to like the left-handed bats from the Pirates. With so many great pitching options on the board, it could be a night where we have to go cheap with our bats. Any value that you can find will go a long way.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.335 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.84 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.24 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.350	0.170	0.265	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.371	0.201	0.403	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,700
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.335	0.147	0.307	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.325	0.134	0.269	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,400
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.328	0.084	0.219	C	$2,700	C	$2,900
6	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.297	0.158	0.313	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.306	0.103	0.275	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,400
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.264	0.066	0.252	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,700
9	Juan Nicasio	RIGHT	0.088	0.000	0.000	P	$8,400	P	$7,300
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.118	0.256	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco, Matt Joyce

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Philadelphia
			Wei-Yin Chen					Vince Velasquez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -115					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.258	3	17.4%	3.3%	SP vs. Left	0.269	5	24.1%	10.0%
SP vs. Right	0.342	30	20.1%	5.7%	SP vs. Right	0.306	3	29.7%	6.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Wei-Yin Chen
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,500
				FPPG:		30.0	FPPG:		15.1
				Pitcher Rating:		64.4	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	2	3.61	23.1%	5.8%	8.3%	40.5%	37.8%	32.4%	0.79
2016	7	3.74	20.3%	5.1%	7.8%	45.4%	33.1%	34.1%	1.05
2015	31	3.97	19.3%	5.2%	8.6%	40.5%	39.4%	28.3%	1.32

Chen has been super frustrating in his last two starts. After failing to record a single strikeout against the Phillies at home, he struck out 12 batters against the Brewers. He has a chance for some revenge tonight, as the squares off against the Phillies once again. While I’m a fan of the matchup, Chen seems a bit expensive with this game being played on the road. I much prefer Juan Nicasio against the Braves and he is considerably cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Vince Velasquez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,700
				FPPG:		40.9	FPPG:		23.4
				Pitcher Rating:		68.0	Pitcher Rank:		9
L14 Days	2	3.90	20.4%	6.1%	9.0%	45.7%	37.1%	27.8%	0.75
2016	7	3.21	28.7%	7.6%	11.5%	39.6%	41.5%	22.2%	0.62
2015	7	3.74	25.1%	9.1%	10.5%	31.3%	46.7%	27.3%	0.81

Velasquez has cooled off a bit since his hot start, but he still boasts a 3.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.7%. He has great velocity and he generates a high swinging strike rate of 11.5%. Velasquez is listed as a small underdog tonight against the Marlins, but he has more upside than Chen and the two are similarly price on FanDuel. I’m not sure that you have to look this way in cash games, but Velasquez makes a strong GPP play given his strikeout upside.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have quietly been producing against both left and right-handed pitching this season. They are ranked eighth in team wOBA and fifth in team strikeout rate against righties. The issue for the Marlins tonight is their matchup. Vince Velasquez has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.378	0.229	0.348	2B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,100
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.319	0.093	0.326	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,200
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.368	0.156	0.374	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.373	0.295	0.342	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,500
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.360	0.249	0.384	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,100
6	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.297	0.125	0.490	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.298	0.129	0.300	C	$2,900	C	$2,900
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.269	0.084	0.189	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,300
9	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$8,300	P	$8,500
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.151	0.306	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

The Phillies may have the fourth lowest team total on the board tonight, but that doesn’t mean that we have to completely avoid everyone in their lineup. While Wei-Yin Chen is an above-average lefty, he has allowed a .342 wOBA and 30 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.273 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.126 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.1% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.31 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.66 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.329	0.082	0.435	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,500
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.321	0.072	0.281	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,700
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.363	0.275	0.291	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800
4	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.407	0.242	0.318	C	$2,900	C	$3,600
5	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.345	0.000	0.230	1B	$2,000	1B/C	$2,000
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.257	0.031	0.248	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,700
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.170	0.080	0.279	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200
8	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.353	0.000	0.530	P	$8,500	P	$9,700
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.274	0.135	0.299	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.102	0.323	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Carlos Ruiz, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – NONE

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					Baltimore
			Wade Miley					Ubaldo Jimenez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -125					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.288	4	18.3%	4.9%	SP vs. Left	0.329	16	22.5%	8.8%
SP vs. Right	0.336	21	17.8%	7.9%	SP vs. Right	0.331	9	19.5%	9.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Wade Miley
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,900
				FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:		14.6
				Pitcher Rating:		45.7	Pitcher Rank:		21
L14 Days	2	3.26	23.4%	6.4%	12.2%	60.6%	30.3%	39.4%	3.00
2016	7	3.87	19.0%	5.0%	10.8%	47.4%	33.8%	28.2%	1.64
2015	32	4.24	17.7%	7.7%	8.3%	48.8%	30.5%	24.7%	0.79

Miley has pitched better than most people would realize this season. In his seven starts, he has a 3.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.0%. He has given up a lot of home runs though, which is the main reason he has a 4.91 ERA. We can expect some positive regression to come his way soon, although I don’t expect that to happen tonight against the Orioles. They have a stacked lineup and Miley has to face them in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Ubaldo Jimenez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,200
				FPPG:		27.3	FPPG:		12.3
				Pitcher Rating:		56.6	Pitcher Rank:		18
L14 Days	2	4.52	13.3%	8.3%	7.2%	58.7%	26.1%	19.2%	0.69
2016	7	4.26	19.9%	10.8%	8.0%	54.4%	25.6%	29.9%	1.11
2015	32	3.93	21.2%	8.6%	8.0%	49.1%	28.8%	27.0%	0.98

While a high walk rate isn’t ideal, we can stomach it when it is accompanied by a high strikeout rate. The problem for Jimenez this season is that he isn’t striking batters out at a high enough rate to offset his bad command. He may be listed as a favorable tonight at home, but the total for the game is set at 9.0 runs. His matchup against the Mariners is less than ideal, as they are ranked 11th in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners may be small underdogs tonight, but they come into the game with the seventh highest team total on the board. They hit right-handed pitching well as a team and they see a nice ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards. Over the last two seasons, Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed a .329 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.35 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.318	0.114	0.324	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900
2	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.323	0.092	0.332	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,200
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.369	0.207	0.452	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,300
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.365	0.226	0.357	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.336	0.189	0.451	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,600
6	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.347	0.195	0.185	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
7	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.352	0.188	0.272	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,900
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.253	0.133	0.357	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
9	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.273	0.131	0.249	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.164	0.331	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Seth Smith, Adam Lind

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles find themselves in a favorable matchup tonight at home. Wade Miley has been tough on left-handed hitters, but he has allowed a .336 wOBA and 21 home runs to right-handed bats over the last two seasons. If you look at the projected lineup below, you can see that Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Mark Trumbo all have a .170+ ISO against southpaws since the start of last season.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.161 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.8% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.72 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.65 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.379	0.171	0.316	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.340	0.171	0.408	SS	$3,900	3B/SS	$4,800
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.298	0.164	0.416	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.334	0.185	0.401	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,200
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.365	0.274	0.419	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.300	0.138	0.287	C	$2,200	C	$3,200
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.277	0.133	0.285	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,000
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.277	0.109	0.421	2B	$3,100	2B	$2,900
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.262	0.115	0.248	2B	$2,000	3B	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.162	0.356	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					Toronto
			Chris Archer					Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -145					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.276	10	29.0%	7.0%	SP vs. Left	0.256	3	17.4%	7.7%
SP vs. Right	0.296	17	28.6%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.270	3	18.8%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Chris Archer
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$9,800
				FPPG:		31.3	FPPG:		16.2
				Pitcher Rating:		66.0	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	2	3.96	22.9%	12.5%	11.1%	63.3%	20.0%	16.1%	0.82
2016	8	3.60	27.8%	10.8%	11.2%	45.8%	28.8%	37.0%	1.66
2015	34	3.08	29.0%	7.6%	12.8%	46.1%	33.9%	32.2%	0.81

Archer has turned it around since the start of the season, but he still struggles with his command at times. On the year, he has a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.8% and a walk rate of 10.8%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Blue Jays in Toronto. Given all of the aces that are available in tonight’s slate, there is no reason to target Archer against a potent offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Marcus Stroman
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$11,000
				FPPG:		34.1	FPPG:		17.9
				Pitcher Rating:		56.8	Pitcher Rank:		17
L14 Days	2	2.34	23.2%	7.1%	10.5%	76.9%	7.7%	23.1%	0.00
2016	8	3.61	18.2%	6.7%	8.3%	62.3%	24.0%	26.2%	0.64
2015	4	3.28	17.5%	5.8%	7.2%	64.1%	17.9%	21.8%	0.67

Stroman is coming off of two fantastic starts. He now has a 3.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.2% on the season. He doesn’t walk many batters and he produces an elite ground ball rate of 62.3%. That ground ball rate allows him to succeed in even the most hitter-friendly of ballparks. He checks into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite against a Rays’ offense that has struggled against right-handed pitching. If this was a different slate, I would consider Stroman, but there are so many great pitching options that I will likely look elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays exploded for 13 runs last night against J.A. Happ and the Blue Jays (remember that regression that I mentioned was coming for Happ?). They draw a tougher test tonight, as Marcus Stroman has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA over the last two seasons. While the ballpark gives their offense a nice boost, I don’t like targeting hitters against elite ground ball pitchers.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.298 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.180 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.4% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.92 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.74 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.332	0.135	0.508	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,000
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.338	0.188	0.323	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.305	0.160	0.377	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,400
4	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.381	0.307	0.247	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.316	0.183	0.369	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.298	0.169	0.295	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,600
7	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.316	0.200	0.427	OF	$2,900	1B/2B	$3,200
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.323	0.181	0.245	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.328	0.185	0.223	C	$2,100	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.190	0.335	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

The Blue Jays’ offense continues to sputter. On the season, they are averaging 4.08 runs per game, which is the tenth lowest in the majors. They are ranked below the league average in both team wOBA and team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They also draw a difficult matchup against Chris Archer, who boasts an elite strikeout rate. You can look to the Jays in tournaments, but there are better cash game targets.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.0% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.26 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.311	0.131	0.348	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.380	0.250	0.246	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,700
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.388	0.292	0.288	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,000
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.377	0.267	0.372	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,200
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.351	0.235	0.517	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,000
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.325	0.178	0.334	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,500
7	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.343	0.134	0.401	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,200
8	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.298	0.177	0.229	C	$2,300	C	$2,700
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.291	0.107	0.240	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.197	0.331	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 17th

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 6:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco, Matt Joyce

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Carlos Ruiz, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – NONE

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Seth Smith, Adam Lind

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak

Stackability – NONE

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