MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-18 02:21:20

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Toronto					NY Yankees
			J.A. Happ					CC Sabathia
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -150					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.296	5	34.3%	23.7%	SP vs. Left	0.265	5	20.4%	25.8%
SP vs. Right	0.298	26	30.7%	20.6%	SP vs. Right	0.348	37	28.4%	16.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$10,900
					FPPG:		37.0	FPPG:		19.1
					Pitcher Rating:		74.7	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	95.0	3.41	1.47	30.2%	9.5%	10.7%	43.3%	31.3%	33.3%
2016	23	94.9	4.11	2.96	21.6%	7.5%	9.9%	42.4%	35.1%	31.9%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Happ is facing the Yankees for the fourth time already this season. In each of his first three starts, he held New York to a single run offensively. Happ comes into this game in great form, posting a 1.47 ERA (3.41 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 30.2% in his last five starts. The Yankees may not strikeout at a high rate, but they are ranked 25th in team wOBA and 28th in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Yankee Stadium favors left-handed power bats, but Happ has held lefties to a .296 wOBA over the last two seasons. Chris Archer is my favorite pitcher in the early slate, but Happ is a close second.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		27.5	FPPG:		13.3
					Pitcher Rating:		42.0	Pitcher Rank:		25
L30 Days	6	99.5	4.95	5.25	16.4%	10.1%	7.5%	49.6%	33.0%	24.1%
2016	21	96.4	4.67	4.20	18.1%	9.2%	9.5%	48.3%	34.5%	24.3%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

Sabathia has done a remarkable job of creating soft contact this season. While that usually takes a stack against him out of play, it hasn’t led to much for Sabathia. In 21 starts, he owns a 4.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.1%. He comes into today’s game as a sizable underdog at home against the Blue Jays, who are ranked eighth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. There is more risk than potential reward for CC today.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Do you remember all the way back to the first month of the season when the Blue Jays were struggling against lefties? I noted that by the end of the season, they would end up being ranked inside the top five in both team wOBA and team ISO. They aren’t quite there yet, but we still have plenty of baseball to play. CC Sabathia has been a lot better against right-handed hitters this season, but if you look at the two-year sample, he has allowed a .348 wOBA and 37 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.330 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.173 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.6% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.87 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.81 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.79 (8 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.332	0.173	0.377	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,500
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.429	0.292	0.332	3B	$4,400	3B	$5,000
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.372	0.264	0.386	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,200
4	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.359	0.188	0.342	C	$2,800	C	$3,900
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.374	0.197	0.355	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,800
6	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.356	0.230	0.162	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
7	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.389	0.133	0.000	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800
8	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.312	0.108	0.117	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,100
9	Darrell Ceciliani	LEFT	0.196	0.000	0.138	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.347	0.176	0.245	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, “(player-popup)Melvin Upton Jr

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees have not hit left-handed pitching well this season, ranking in the bottom six in both team wOBA and team ISO. They come into today’s game with a below-average team total, as they square off against J.A. Happ for the fourth time this season. Happ has dominated the Yankees in their first three meetings, but the Yankees have three new right-handed hitters to throw at him today. All three are intriguing plays batting fourth, fifth, and seventh.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.306 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.132 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.2% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.77 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (19 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.319	0.107	0.379	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
2	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.312	0.106	0.260	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,600
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.295	0.103	0.367	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,400
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.121	0.000	0.355	C	$2,700	C	$2,400
5	Aaron Judge	RIGHT			0.724	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.323	0.105	0.348	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000
7	Tyler Austin	RIGHT			0.724	1B	$2,500	OF	$2,600
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.317	0.184	0.308	C	$2,500	C	$2,300
9	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.300	0.143	0.353	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.284	0.107	0.424	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Tyler Austin

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
San Diego					Tampa Bay
			Christian Friedrich					Chris Archer
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -200					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.303	5	29.6%	18.6%	SP vs. Left	0.283	19	32.4%	28.6%
SP vs. Right	0.351	9	31.0%	15.9%	SP vs. Right	0.298	23	33.3%	28.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Christian Friedrich
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$5,800
					FPPG:		22.8	FPPG:		10.6
					Pitcher Rating:		36.4	Pitcher Rank:		28
L30 Days	5	86.0	5.76	5.60	8.6%	6.9%	6.5%	41.2%	39.2%	27.6%
2016	16	92.4	4.88	4.84	16.8%	9.3%	8.5%	45.0%	34.9%	32.3%
2015	0	0.0	4.20	5.25	16.7%	9.3%	11.2%	47.4%	29.4%	28.1%

Friedrich has been one of the easiest fades at pitcher this season. In 16 starts, he has a 4.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.8%. He doesn’t appear to be getting any better, as he comes into today’s game in awful form. He draws a difficult matchup against the Rays, who are ranked 16th in team wOBA and 13th in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. As a heavy underdog on the road, Friedrich can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chris Archer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$10,600
					FPPG:		33.3	FPPG:		18.0
					Pitcher Rating:		96.1	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	6	100.5	2.91	3.63	29.8%	4.4%	13.1%	44.3%	37.1%	31.1%
2016	25	102.5	3.55	4.39	27.6%	8.6%	11.8%	45.5%	33.9%	33.7%
2015	34	101.4	3.08	3.23	29.0%	7.6%	12.8%	46.1%	33.9%	32.2%

Archer is the top ranked pitcher in the early slate and the second highest ranked overall. I have been waiting all season to say this – Archer is finally in good form. In his last five starts, he has a 2.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.8% and a walk rate of only 4.4%. He is a massive favorite at home against a Padres’ offense that is ranked 28th in team wOBA and 30th in team K% over the last 30 days. Archer will be the chalk play, but he clearly the best pitching option in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres come into tonight’s game with the second lowest implied team total on the board. They have struggled with right-handed pitching all season long and are one of the coldest offenses in baseball right now. They also draw a difficult matchup against Chris Archer, who has an elite strikeout rate. In the last two seasons, Archer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.292 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.5% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.40 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.42 (29 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.330	0.103	0.409	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.336	0.200	0.424	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,600
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.340	0.177	0.343	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,300
4	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.358	0.241	0.341	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
5	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.388	0.359	0.373	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,300
6	Christian Bethancourt	RIGHT	0.259	0.141	0.223	C	$2,000	C	$2,600
7	Brett Wallace	LEFT	0.331	0.195	0.125	3B	$2,000	1B/3B	$2,600
8	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.260	0.102	0.346	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,100
9	Nick Noonan	LEFT	0.186	0.143	0.088			1B/SS	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.310	0.185	0.297	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Did anyone stack the Rays last night? When the Rays hang 15 runs on your team, you know it’s not your season. Tampa Bay draws another favorable matchup tonight against Christian Friedrich, who has allowed a .351 wOBA and a hard hit contact rate of 31% to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.321 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.3% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.77 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.58 (11 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Franklin	SWITCH	0.253	0.102	0.246	2B	$2,700	1B/OF	$3,600
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.287	0.114	0.303	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.382	0.229	0.343	3B	$3,700	3B	$5,000
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.244	0.063	0.472	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,700
5	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.383	0.281	0.249	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,400
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.247	0.069		1B	$3,000	1B	$3,100
7	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.298	0.164	0.336	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.302	0.211	0.198	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,300
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.250	0.066	0.399	C	$2,400	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.294	0.144	0.318	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Nick Franklin, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Mikie Mahtook

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
St. Louis					Houston
			Carlos Martinez					Doug Fister
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -110					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.329	18	32.7%	18.8%	SP vs. Left	0.345	21	33.3%	13.8%
SP vs. Right	0.259	6	23.9%	26.1%	SP vs. Right	0.303	10	26.4%	16.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Carlos Martinez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		29.8	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		66.6	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	5	100.4	5.08	5.10	15.8%	10.5%	7.2%	45.7%	28.3%	34.7%
2016	22	97.3	4.17	3.34	19.6%	8.8%	8.6%	55.6%	26.0%	29.8%
2015	29	98.1	3.44	3.01	24.4%	8.3%	10.5%	54.5%	25.5%	27.6%

Martinez has hit a cold stretch over the last month of play. In his last five outings, he posted a 5.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.8% and a walk rate of 10.5%. The good news is that he gets to face a right-handed heavy lineup of the Astros, who have the fourth highest team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Given his current form, Martinez is not a strong cash game option. However, he has a favorable strikeout matchup and should be low-owned in tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Doug Fister
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		28.8	FPPG:		14.0
					Pitcher Rating:		47.0	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	6	97.0	4.78	3.79	16.9%	7.8%	6.4%	38.3%	38.3%	30.4%
2016	23	98.4	4.87	3.61	15.5%	8.1%	5.9%	45.8%	34.8%	30.6%
2015	15	110.3	4.47	4.19	14.0%	5.4%	5.2%	44.6%	34.1%	29.5%

I took a stance on Fister early in the season and I have stuck by it all year. In 23 starts, he has a 4.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.5% and a walk rate of 8.1%. He gives up a decent number of fly balls and his hard hit contact rate is over 30% on the season. Basically, he doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for any mistakes. He needs a near perfect outing to reach and exceed value and I don’t expect that to happen today against the Cardinals.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, ranking third in team wOBA and first in team ISO. They come into today’s game with the fifth lowest team total on the board, but I’m more bullish on the Cardinals than Vegas seems to be. In the last two seasons, Doug Fister has allowed a .345 wOBA and 21 home runs to left-handed hitters. The Cardinals also see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Minute Maid Park.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.200 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.93 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.406	0.268	0.323	2B	$3,800	2B/3B	$4,600
2	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.333	0.165	0.283	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
3	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.348	0.264	0.360	1B	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,900
4	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.306	0.098	0.419	C	$2,600	C	$3,300
5	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.324	0.132	0.332	SS	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,400
6	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.356	0.268	0.597	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.314	0.208	0.337	3B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,900
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.356	0.268	0.597	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
9	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.322	0.133	0.305	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.200	0.395	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston

The Astros are ranked right around the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Even though Carlos Martinez has struggled in his last five starts, the Astros don’t have many left-handed hitters to throw at him. In the last two seasons combined, Martinez has held right-handed batters to a .259 wOBA and a 23.9% hard hit contact rate.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.0% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.45 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.334	0.167	0.361	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.192	0.060	0.269	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.359	0.164	0.474	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,300
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.368	0.220	0.384	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,100
5	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.302	0.141	0.260	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,200
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.313	0.213	0.344	C	$3,200	C	$3,000
7	A.J. Reed	LEFT	0.267	0.136	0.272	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,300
8	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.316	0.184	0.207	C	$2,600	C	$3,000
9	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.146	0.000	0.399	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.289	0.143	0.330	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Washington					Colorado
			Stephen Strasburg					Jon Gray
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -146					10.5
SP vs. Left	0.255	14	27.7%	31.4%	SP vs. Left	0.311	8	36.4%	24.9%
SP vs. Right	0.294	15	28.3%	29.1%	SP vs. Right	0.335	11	28.6%	23.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Stephen Strasburg
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		45.1	FPPG:		23.8
					Pitcher Rating:		71.4	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	6	101.3	3.45	4.38	29.0%	6.6%	10.7%	28.1%	53.1%	32.7%
2016	22	103.3	3.12	3.07	30.8%	7.2%	11.1%	39.9%	40.5%	27.2%
2015	23	88.8	2.76	3.46	29.6%	5.0%	11.2%	42.2%	34.3%	28.9%

Strasburg is the ultimate wildcard in the early slate. He has more upside than any other pitcher, but he has to pitch in Coors Field. If you look at his 22 starts this season, he has been dominant with a 3.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.8%. He struggled a bit in his last start against the Braves and now he has to pitch in the best hitter’s park in baseball. I love targeting him as a tournament play in the early slate, but there is too much risk involved to use him in cash games.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		31.5	FPPG:		16.5
					Pitcher Rating:		53.9	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	6	99.2	4.14	4.24	23.3%	8.9%	10.9%	36.6%	37.6%	28.9%
2016	21	95.2	3.75	4.55	25.2%	8.2%	11.7%	45.1%	32.1%	30.6%
2015	9	75.8	3.89	5.53	21.6%	7.6%	10.1%	42.4%	32.8%	36.4%

Gray is having a solid season for the Rockies, posting a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.2%. He has a decent ground ball rate and he has done a better job of limiting hard contact this season. With that said, I want no part of Gray today against the Nationals, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The Nationals have the second highest run projection of the 30 teams in action tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals have enjoyed Coors Field so far, but they haven’t broken out offensively. We could see that today against Jon Gray. In the last two seasons combined, Gray has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 36.4% to left-handed hitters and he has allowed a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Load up on the Nationals’ offense in both cash games and tournaments.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.52 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.359	0.231	0.366	SS	$4,400	2B/OF	$5,600
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.297	0.140	0.402	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.429	0.294	0.270	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,400
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.380	0.229	0.373	2B	$4,400	2B	$5,500
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.318	0.152	0.406	C	$4,100	C	$5,100
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.324	0.151	0.415	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,400
7	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.304	0.164	0.244	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,200
8	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.297	0.082	0.300	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.178	0.015	0.652	P	$9,200	P	$9,400
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.162	0.381	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Even though the Rockies are facing the best pitcher in the slate, they have the fifth highest implied team total. Anytime they are playing at home in Coors Field, you have to at least consider their offense, regardless of the opposing pitcher. There isn’t anything that stands out with Stephen Strasburg splits, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. I will likely have shares of both Strasburg and of the Rockies’ offense for tournaments, but will be avoiding both in cash games.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.340 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.24 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.98 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.369	0.200	0.539	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,700
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.344	0.114	0.460	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,200
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.412	0.289	0.500	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,400
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.381	0.298	0.410	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,700
5	David Dahl	LEFT	0.402	0.271	0.396	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.315	0.126	0.343	SS	$3,100	1B/SS	$3,100
7	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.335	0.169	0.169	C	$3,000	C	$3,000
8	Ben Paulsen	LEFT	0.332	0.185	0.000	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,400
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.148	0.000	0.000	P	$7,000	P	$5,700
	Team Averages	—	0.338	0.184	0.313	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Pittsburgh					San Francisco
			Ivan Nova					Matt Cain
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -117					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.371	17	36.3%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.400	11	30.0%	15.1%
SP vs. Right	0.326	17	33.1%	21.3%	SP vs. Right	0.360	16	36.3%	17.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ivan Nova
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		22.3	FPPG:		10.5
					Pitcher Rating:		45.4	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	5	85.4	4.59	3.34	16.9%	6.5%	10.1%	40.2%	37.0%	47.3%
2016	17	96.3	4.05	4.68	17.5%	5.3%	9.1%	51.7%	29.4%	37.0%
2015	17	89.9	4.58	5.07	15.3%	8.0%	7.8%	49.0%	31.7%	32.3%

Nova isn’t having a great season overall. In 17 starts, he has a 4.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.5%. The move to the National League should help his ERA moving forward, but he comes into today’s game as a small underdog against the Giants. On the season, San Francisco has the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Nova can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Cain
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		20.4	FPPG:		9.0
					Pitcher Rating:		52.5	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	5	81.2	4.52	5.82	20.4%	9.7%	9.1%	41.8%	32.8%	36.2%
2016	16	86.9	4.73	5.47	17.4%	7.8%	8.4%	37.1%	37.8%	30.9%
2015	11	90.3	4.78	5.79	15.1%	7.4%	9.0%	35.8%	40.3%	36.4%

Cain is also have a down season, posting a 5.47 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.4%. He is a fly ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 30.9% this season. He draws a decent matchup against the Pirates, but I don’t want to have to sweat every single out. Cain has more risk than upside, which makes him an easy fade in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates come into this game with the eighth lowest run projection on the board. While that’s a small concern, their matchup is an exploitable one. In the last two seasons, Matt Cain has allowed a .400 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .360 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Cain has also allowed 27 home runs in his last 27 starts.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.139 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.291	0.103	0.307	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,500
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.354	0.154	0.305	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,200
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.351	0.181	0.373	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.336	0.166	0.240	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,200
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.357	0.195	0.401	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000
6	John Jaso	LEFT	0.334	0.138	0.259	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,600
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.325	0.077	0.455	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.273	0.078	0.199	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,800
9	Ivan Nova	RIGHT	0.125	0.000	0.176	P	$6,900	P	$6,300
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.121	0.302	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

The Giants are small favorites today against Ivan Nova, who has really struggled with left-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, Nova has allowed a .371 wOBA, 17 home runs, and a hard hit contact rate of 36.3% to batters from the left side of the plate. All of the lefties in the Giants’ lineup are in play, as is Buster Posey at catcher.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.6% (2 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.35 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.342	0.123	0.340	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,500
2	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.294	0.105	0.392	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600
3	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.367	0.199	0.389	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.352	0.144	0.354	C	$3,600	C	$3,800
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.335	0.204	0.326	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,200
6	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.351	0.169	0.185	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
7	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.345	0.155	0.264	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,000
8	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.324	0.123	0.259	3B	$2,900	3B/SS	$4,100
9	Matt Cain	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,600	P	$5,500
	Team Averages	—	0.301	0.136	0.279	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 17th

Stackability Rating System:

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, “(player-popup)Melvin Upton Jr

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Tyler Austin

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Nick Franklin, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Mikie Mahtook

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – YELLOW

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