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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-26 00:46:34

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
nyyankeesmlb Luis Cessa tampabaymlb Ryne Stanek
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-135 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.221 0.252 23.1% 84.4 30.4% 58.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.188 0.223 28.0% 88.2 38.5% 28.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.395 29.6% 88.9 15.8% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.236 0.337 48.2% 91.1 28.3% 39.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Cessa
luis-cessa-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 19 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.88 4.75 18.8% 10.6% 45.5% 29.1% 21.8% 95.6 10.3%
2018 2 4.58 3.00 21.3% 13.1% 52.6% 27.5% 17.5% 95.0 10.6%
L14 1 5.00 0.00 18.2% 13.6% 53.3% 33.3% 13.3% 95.2 9.4%

We have ten early games on the schedule today, but only the first eight are included in the early-only slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. Cessa will be making his third start of the season. Including some relief appearances, he owns a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 13%. He has a high ground ball rate and he limits hard contact. He’s not likely to throw more than 90 pitches or so, but a matchup against the Rays makes him an appealing tournament play. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .313 with a strikeout rate of 21% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Far from a core play, but Cessa is a decent tournament option.

Ryne Stanek
ryne-stanek-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,100 Salary: $8,500
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 3.67 5.85 30.5% 12.6% 35.2% 44.4% 3.7% 98.2 15.4%
2018 13 3.37 1.96 31.9% 11.1% 35.8% 42.0% 18.5% 98.1 15.3%
L14 3 2.95 2.45 32.1% 3.6% 22.2% 50.0% 5.6% 97.8 18.5%

Nathan Eovaldi was scheduled to start today, but he was traded to the Red Sox. Stanek will technically draw the start, but look for Austin Pruitt to eat a lot of innings as well. With this being another bullpen game for Tampa Bay and with a matchup against the Yankees, all pitchers from the Rays can be avoided.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Stanek in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are a talented offense, but their upside is hurt in this ballpark. Despite favorable matchups in the last two games, their offense has been quiet so far in this series. This doesn’t mean that we have to fade the Yankees as a whole, but they are better suited for one-off tournament plays. With Nathan Eovaldi traded, the Yankees will now square off against the likes of Austin Pruitt, Ryne Stanek, and a few other relievers. My approach is fairly simple here, target the Yankees’ batters that hit right-handed pitching well — Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Aaron Hicks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.309 87.2 0.166 29.6% 12.0% 14.4% 51.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 LF $8,600
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.403 96.2 0.272 49.1% 12.6% 30.7% 45.1% OF $4,500 OF $5,100 RF $9,500
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.306 91.8 0.184 33.9% 7.9% 33.2% 52.8% OF $4,400 OF $4,900 RF $8,800
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.349 88.6 0.253 39.1% 8.7% 11.9% 34.8% SS $3,500 SS $4,600 SS $8,900
5 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.350 88.6 0.189 38.5% 13.7% 19.2% 45.1% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.327 88.9 0.267 39.5% 8.5% 27.7% 37.0% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.347 89.6 0.182 36.1% 4.0% 17.3% 50.0% 3B $3,300 3B $4,000 3B $7,300
8 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.385 88.3 0.242 38.7% 6.0% 26.2% 30.0% 2B $3,500 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.358 89.7 0.230 37.3% 11.0% 22.0% 42.4% C $2,100 C $3,200 C $6,800
Team Averages 0.348 89.9 0.221 38.0% 9.4% 22.5% 43.1%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge (Cash), Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have been an auto-fade so far in this series, but at the very least, they are playable today against Luis Cessa. We are still dealing with a small sample size, but he’s had serious reverse-splits this season. He has allowed a .395 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He does still have a high ground ball rate against batters from both sides of the plate, so I wouldn’t get carried away with my exposure. With that said, Matt Duffy and C.J. Cron are intriguing GPP plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.250 85.8 0.081 33.8% 8.9% 28.6% 53.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,400
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.328 86.9 0.101 30.9% 6.1% 15.0% 51.3% 3B $2,800 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.370 90.7 0.243 44.3% 15.0% 22.0% 38.0% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,500
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.349 87.2 0.220 36.1% 6.1% 24.9% 43.3% 1B $3,400 1B $4,400 1B $8,600
5 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.305 87.1 0.255 42.3% 6.0% 42.0% 34.6% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,400
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.308 89.7 0.121 35.7% 5.5% 20.6% 47.4% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 2B $7,400
7 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.290 84.4 0.127 28.5% 8.8% 18.5% 44.6% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.300 85.7 0.093 36.2% 4.3% 17.3% 38.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,100 SS $5,600
9 Adam Moore RIGHT 0.068 85.8 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $5,100
Team Averages 0.285 87.0 0.138 32.0% 6.7% 24.7% 50.1%

Elite Plays – C.J. Cron (GPP)

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron (Cash), Matt Duffy

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

San Diego NY Mets
sandiegomlb Clayton Richard nymetsmlb Corey Oswalt
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-116 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.307 31.3% 88.0 19.2% 75.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.305 22.2% 86.1 14.3% 38.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.355 42.9% 89.6 17.1% 52.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.328 37.5% 88.0 18.5% 55.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Richard
clayton-richard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $11,800
Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.06 4.79 17.6% 6.9% 59.2% 35.0% 17.3% 90.7 8.6%
2018 21 4.37 4.82 17.6% 9.4% 57.7% 40.4% 19.2% 90.2 9.1%
L14 2 6.50 9.00 16.3% 20.9% 61.5% 29.6% 18.5% 90.9 5.5%

Richard has really struggled over the last few weeks. His control has been off, his strikeouts are down, and he has been giving up runs in bunches. The good news is that he draws a favorable matchup against the Mets in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. New York has struggled against southpaws all season and their projected lineup for this game has an average xwOBA of .285 with a strikeout rate of 30%.

Quick Breakdown: This is a nice bounce-back spot for Richard and he’s cheap across the industry.

Corey Oswalt
corey-oswalt-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 4 4.39 5.64 16.9% 6.7% 48.5% 31.3% 22.4% 90.3 7.2%
L14 2 3.98 3.27 21.1% 7.9% 57.7% 14.8% 29.6% 91.1 10.3%

Oswalt is making his fifth major league start of the season. He’s a 24 year old righty that hasn’t had a ton of success in the minors. In ten Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 5.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. There isn’t a lot that stands out when looking at his pitching profile, but he does draw the best possible matchup. The Padres’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .302 with a strikeout rate of 27%. Both pitchers in this game have some appeal in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Oswalt isn’t all that talented, but a matchup against the Padres puts him on my radar in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres haven’t been awful since the All-Star break, but they haven’t exactly been good either. They don’t have a lot of talent in their lineup, especially when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. The good news is that they are facing a pitcher that is very mediocre in Corey Oswalt. We are dealing with a small sample again, but Oswalt has allowed a .328 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.297 84.0 0.080 23.5% 11.5% 12.0% 60.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,700
2 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.350 87.9 0.139 42.5% 11.2% 19.2% 32.2% 2B $2,500 2B $3,600 2B $7,300
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.429 91.9 0.235 52.3% 4.5% 22.5% 43.1% OF $4,100 OF $4,500 IF/OF $9,100
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.316 90.0 0.159 38.3% 9.5% 24.6% 61.2% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
5 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.304 89.9 0.193 46.9% 6.3% 29.7% 43.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 RF $6,500
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.294 87.3 0.080 41.0% 8.9% 23.7% 44.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,000 SS $5,900
7 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.261 85.4 0.149 29.3% 4.9% 27.1% 32.3% 3B $3,100 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.257 83.9 0.125 28.1% 6.7% 30.8% 37.5% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $5,800
9 Clayton Richard LEFT 0.211 74.8 0.125 16.7% 0.0% 48.6% 53.8% P $7,100 P $6,200 P $11,800
Team Averages 0.302 86.1 0.143 35.4% 7.1% 26.5% 45.3%

Elite Plays – Wil Myers (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers (Cash), Carlos Asuaje

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Even though Clayton Richard makes sense as a low-owned tournament play, we can still play a few Mets’ hitters if we are building multiple lineups. On the season, Richard has allowed a .355 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to batters from the right side of the plate. The two hitters that really stand out from a batted ball perspective are Wilmer Flores and Joey Bautista. They both bat from the right side and have elite fly-ball rates against left-handed pitching, which should help negate Richard’s high ground ball rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.282 87.9 0.133 26.8% 3.8% 24.4% 46.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,500 SS $6,400
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.331 89.2 0.133 37.9% 5.3% 17.7% 48.8% 2B $3,000 2B $4,000 SS $7,300
3 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.358 87.4 0.115 33.3% 7.1% 8.2% 30.6% 1B $2,600 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,500
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.350 94.6 0.222 38.2% 24.7% 27.4% 29.4% OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.322 85.5 0.167 29.8% 9.9% 33.7% 54.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,500
6 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.330 84.7 0.095 30.3% 15.4% 17.3% 54.5% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $5,800
7 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.303 89.1 0.195 44.4% 9.9% 35.2% 54.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 LF $7,500
8 Phillip Evans RIGHT 0.000 79.0 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% 3B $2,000 OF $2,300 3B $4,500
9 Corey Oswalt RIGHT P $6,000 P $5,500 P $11,000
Team Averages 0.285 87.2 0.133 30.1% 9.5% 29.9% 39.8%

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores (GPP), Jose Bautista (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores (Cash), Jose Bautista (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 12:35 PM ET

LA Dodgers Philadelphia
ladodgersmlb Walker Buehler philadelphiamlb Jake Arrieta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.307 31.0% 89.0 26.4% 44.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.346 28.4% 87.7 16.6% 50.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.252 0.269 36.4% 87.7 24.4% 54.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.303 28.1% 86.6 16.9% 56.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Walker Buehler
walker-buehler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,100
Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 4.47 7.71 27.3% 18.2% 66.7% 20.8% 20.8% 98.1 10.4%
2018 10 3.37 3.45 25.3% 5.6% 50.0% 34.0% 18.9% 95.9 9.0%
L14 1 4.20 3.60 22.7% 4.6% 18.8% 37.5% 12.5% 95.6 7.6%

Buehler is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He’s had no problem getting acquainted to the major league level, posting a 3.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has an elite skill set and is going to be a pitcher that we talk about for many years to come. While I love the talent, it sounds like the Dodgers may limit his innings down the stretch of the regular season, but he’s still a pitcher to keep an eye on. He draws an exploitable matchup today against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .321 with a strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Buehler is viable in tournaments, especially at this price point.

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0% 92.1 8.7%
2018 19 4.46 3.47 16.8% 8.2% 54.0% 28.2% 19.6% 92.9 7.0%
L14 2 6.12 3.48 12.2% 14.6% 40.0% 23.3% 13.3% 92.5 3.4%

Arrieta has a low ERA and a high ground ball rate, but he doesn’t have the same upside as you’d expect. On the season, he owns a 4.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He doesn’t have the best control and he’s facing a Dodgers’ offense that is loaded with fly-ball hitters. In fact, every single batter in the Dodgers’ projected lineup has an above-average fly-ball rate. This could be troublesome for Arrieta, especially in this home run-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Arrieta in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have such a talented offense that I didn’t mind taking a few shots on them last night against Aaron Nola, who is by all accounts an elite pitcher. They draw a much better matchup today against Jake Arrieta, whose biggest strength at this point in his career is his ground ball rate. The Dodgers should have the answer, as every hitter in their lineup has an above-average fly-ball rate. If we use PlateIQ and sort by the sinker (Arrieta throws this pitch 58% of the time), we see that Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Yasmani Grandal, Matt Kemp, and Cody Bellinger all have a wOBA over .400 this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.379 91.5 0.302 44.2% 11.7% 15.6% 38.4% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 CF $9,300
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.396 92.3 0.259 37.0% 11.3% 14.5% 38.7% 3B $4,300 SS $4,900 3B $9,100
3 Max Muncy LEFT 0.429 91.7 0.328 45.5% 18.5% 25.0% 35.8% 1B $4,200 1B/3B $5,000 IF/OF $9,500
4 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.393 89.8 0.245 40.6% 11.5% 19.1% 39.4% C $3,100 C $4,400 C $8,200
5 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.366 89.4 0.172 41.1% 5.5% 22.3% 40.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 LF $8,300
6 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.346 90.4 0.245 38.2% 10.2% 22.6% 41.2% OF $3,300 1B/OF $4,000 1B $7,200
7 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.326 88.3 0.184 35.2% 7.2% 31.3% 32.3% SS $3,600 OF/SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,600
8 Kike Hernandez RIGHT 0.343 87.3 0.279 31.7% 11.3% 20.7% 31.3% OF $3,400 OF/SS $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
9 Walker Buehler RIGHT 0.126 73.7 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 44.4% 87.5% P $7,800 P $8,400 P $16,100
Team Averages 0.345 88.3 0.224 40.4% 9.7% 23.9% 42.8%

Elite Plays – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Yasmani Grandal (if in the lineup)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, Cody Bellinger

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a difficult matchup against Walker Buehler, but at least they are facing a rookie pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. He’s not a pitcher that I want to load up against, but he has allowed a 34% hard contact rate this season, which brings a few hitters into the mix as one-offs. Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, and Nick Williams will all be low owned and all boast a .370+ wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.323 83.2 0.132 24.5% 13.8% 21.6% 42.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.374 88.6 0.242 35.0% 11.2% 26.4% 27.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.304 86.8 0.196 27.2% 6.7% 21.3% 41.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,300
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.383 89.0 0.184 35.4% 21.3% 14.8% 37.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,400
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.326 88.8 0.182 24.2% 5.8% 14.3% 54.5% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,400
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.378 89.4 0.210 35.4% 9.6% 23.3% 46.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 RF $6,300
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.308 85.5 0.107 25.0% 5.0% 22.5% 39.5% SS $2,400 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.338 88.0 0.161 37.5% 11.0% 32.3% 33.8% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $5,800
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.156 92.5 0.136 37.5% 4.3% 60.9% 28.6% P $7,500 P $7,100 P $14,000
Team Averages 0.321 88.0 0.172 31.3% 9.9% 26.4% 39.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

St. Louis Cincinnati
stlouismlb Jack Flaherty cincinnatimlb Sal Romano
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.268 0.291 30.8% 86.4 23.0% 47.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.391 41.9% 89.7 14.9% 41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.283 33.7% 85.3 34.9% 41.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.328 31.6% 86.6 17.3% 48.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jack Flaherty
jack-flaherty-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.62 6.33 21.3% 10.6% 47.6% 31.8% 15.9% 93.2 13.1%
2018 15 3.44 3.15 29.0% 8.5% 44.7% 32.2% 22.1% 92.6 12.6%
L14 2 4.14 0.90 33.3% 16.7% 50.0% 10.5% 42.1% 93.0 14.0%

Flaherty has quietly been one of the best starters in the Cardinals’ rotation this season. In 15 starts, he has a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He keeps the ball on the ground and induces a lot of soft contact. He’ll need all of that today against the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. While the Cardinals’ starters have pitched well in this series, the Reds are certainly a competent offense. The fact that this game has a total of 9.5 runs takes Flaherty out of cash game consideration.

Quick Breakdown: Flaherty is viable in tournaments, but eventually this Reds’ offense is going to wake up.

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 16 4.72 4.45 19.0% 9.6% 50.4% 32.6% 21.5% 95.3 8.7%
2018 19 4.89 5.19 16.1% 8.9% 45.4% 36.7% 19.9% 94.2 7.4%
L14 1 6.70 3.00 2.6% 7.9% 41.9% 41.2% 8.8% 94.0 2.6%

I certainly wasn’t expecting a pitching duel from these two teams last night, but that’s baseball for you. Romano will take the mound for the Reds today. In 19 starts this season, he has a 4.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and doesn’t have elite numbers against right-handed pitching, which is needed in a matchup against the Cardinals.

Quick Breakdown: Romano is an easy fade in this matchup and in this ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals’ offense might still be stuck in St. Louis. They haven’t been able to get anything going in two favorable matchups so far this series. I’m not overly concerned, as they are still a talented offense that is playing in a home run-friendly ballpark. If anything, their recent struggles should help lower ownership for today’s game against Sal Romano. On the season, he has allowed a .391 xwOBA to lefties and a .328 xwOBA to righties. I’ll be going right back to the well with another Cardinals’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.435 91.2 0.291 50.8% 14.0% 23.0% 19.5% 3B $4,400 1B/3B $5,400 3B $10,500
2 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.373 89.2 0.207 47.0% 5.8% 13.5% 45.2% C $3,100 C $4,100 C $8,000
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.372 89.8 0.175 38.7% 7.1% 25.3% 33.3% SS $3,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,600
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.353 91.7 0.108 46.1% 5.9% 18.9% 48.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
5 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.414 91.4 0.198 42.3% 8.4% 15.7% 47.4% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,700
6 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.355 92.3 0.171 48.1% 10.4% 26.0% 51.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,700 CF $9,200
7 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.268 84.4 0.127 31.9% 9.9% 20.6% 39.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,500
8 Greg Garcia LEFT 0.316 82.7 0.084 29.1% 11.7% 17.1% 40.0% SS $2,100 2B/SS $2,900 2B $5,800
9 Jack Flaherty RIGHT 0.199 77.9 0.000 28.6% 0.0% 39.1% 54.5% P $7,400 P $9,000 P $17,700
Team Averages 0.343 87.8 0.151 40.3% 8.1% 22.1% 42.1%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong

Secondary Plays – Yadier Molina (if in the lineup), Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

I honestly thought last night was a great bounce-back spot for the Reds’ offense, but they weren’t able to figure out either of the Cardinals’ rookie pitchers. The good news is that they’ve actually faced Jack Flaherty before. The bad news is that he’s the most talented pitcher on the Cardinals at the moment. He has an above-average strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA this season. I know exactly how this is going to play out — I’m going to finally fade the Reds due to a tough matchup and this will be the day that they show up.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.311 82.9 0.109 32.1% 6.3% 12.2% 36.7% SS $3,300 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.363 87.2 0.191 40.4% 8.3% 16.7% 37.9% 2B $3,400 2B $4,900 2B $9,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.458 88.9 0.172 38.9% 17.8% 12.5% 33.3% 1B $3,900 1B $4,300 1B $8,600
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.384 91.4 0.241 50.9% 9.2% 21.8% 36.6% 3B $3,600 3B $4,600 3B $9,400
5 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.408 91.5 0.136 47.1% 14.3% 12.4% 40.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 RF $9,200
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.334 86.2 0.102 39.6% 9.4% 16.5% 42.4% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,500
7 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.343 87.4 0.182 33.5% 6.5% 27.6% 34.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,500
8 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.124 66.5 0.059 11.1% 0.0% 55.0% 80.0% P $5,500 P $4,800 P $9,000
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.244 79.0 0.072 20.4% 10.4% 24.4% 45.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
Team Averages 0.330 84.6 0.140 34.9% 9.1% 22.1% 43.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Cleveland
pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-170 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.312 32.1% 85.9 19.1% 49.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.268 34.2% 85.9 31.0% 45.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.270 30.4% 88.7 27.7% 50.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.280 36.4% 88.5 31.5% 42.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1% 95.3 8.2%
2018 20 3.71 3.80 23.4% 6.7% 49.7% 31.3% 20.7% 95.2 10.3%
L14 2 2.70 1.59 34.0% 6.4% 46.4% 25.0% 21.4% 95.2 12.2%

Taillon is one of my favorite pitchers to target in DFS. He always seems to be underpriced and underowned, which is an awesome combination. It pains me to see him draw a matchup against the Indians, who absolutely mash right-handed pitching. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .364 with a hard contact rate of 40%. Those are not numbers that I want to mess with, even though Taillon is extremely cheap across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Taillon in all formats.

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,500 Salary: $13,400 Salary: $25,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.80 4.19 26.2% 8.0% 46.4% 34.4% 15.0% 94.0 9.2%
2018 21 3.16 2.44 31.3% 8.1% 44.0% 35.4% 16.2% 94.5 13.2%
L14 3 3.70 2.84 31.0% 11.9% 38.3% 35.4% 16.7% 94.5 13.6%

Bauer just continues to dominate any opponent that the MLB schedule throws at him. In 21 starts this season, he has a 3.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. While I don’t love paying this price against a red-hot Pirates’ offense, Bauer is clearly the top pitching option of the early slate. There isn’t another arm on the schedule that can match his upside. The problem is that he is extremely expensive. Rostering Bauer is a bit prohibitive, as it limits your ability to spend up on hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is an elite play in all formats, but I wouldn’t call him a must play.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have been red-hot since the All-Star break and have taken advantage of their matchup against the Indians. This ballpark favors left-handed power and they’ve been able to use the DH since this is an American League ballpark. Something tells me that their hot streak is going to come to an end today against Trevor Bauer, who has an elite strikeout rate and who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.462 88.0 0.375 42.9% 0.0% 12.5% 57.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 LF $6,500
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.329 86.5 0.200 30.3% 5.7% 19.6% 45.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 CF $8,700
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.378 90.9 0.268 36.5% 12.9% 22.2% 34.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 RF $8,500
4 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.331 89.0 0.142 31.7% 6.8% 15.9% 51.5% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $4,900
5 Colin Moran LEFT 0.370 88.5 0.153 32.3% 8.3% 14.7% 42.0% 3B $2,300 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.338 88.8 0.131 30.4% 10.6% 16.4% 50.9% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
7 David Freese RIGHT 0.384 89.6 0.263 28.3% 6.9% 23.0% 46.7% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,400
8 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.269 82.9 0.087 27.6% 4.0% 16.0% 37.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,000 2B $5,800
9 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.312 87.6 0.136 27.9% 7.5% 23.3% 40.4% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $5,900
Team Averages 0.353 88.0 0.195 32.0% 7.0% 18.2% 45.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians have enough talent to put up runs in any matchup, especially in this ballpark. With that said, I don’t want to go out of my way to target hitters against Jameson Taillon. He has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. I’ll never fault anyone for targeting Francisco Lindor or Jose Ramirez as one-offs, but I’ll likely be looking elsewhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.412 89.6 0.288 42.7% 10.0% 17.8% 35.5% SS $4,700 SS $5,500 SS $10,300
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.415 91.2 0.205 44.8% 7.4% 8.1% 43.1% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 LF $9,000
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.425 89.5 0.370 40.9% 16.4% 11.9% 30.2% 3B $5,000 3B $5,700 IF/OF $10,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.392 90.4 0.275 41.9% 8.9% 23.1% 37.6% 1B $3,800 1B $4,400 1B $8,600
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.390 89.7 0.198 40.0% 10.1% 20.2% 38.0% 1B $3,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,000
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.335 90.5 0.100 34.0% 5.2% 12.1% 44.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,700 LF $7,500
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.352 87.5 0.129 37.6% 10.4% 18.7% 35.7% 2B $2,900 2B $3,900 2B $7,500
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.230 87.4 0.085 40.0% 7.6% 39.0% 52.9% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $5,100
9 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.326 90.0 0.101 41.2% 3.8% 22.8% 53.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,500
Team Averages 0.364 89.5 0.195 40.3% 8.9% 19.3% 41.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious