MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 28th

Jump to Page 1 2 3


The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Philadelphia at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

Philadelphia Seattle
Article Image Mark Leiter Jr. Article Image Felix Hernandez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-183 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.178 22.9% 8.2% 20.4% 51.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.335 28.5% 8.8% 17.9% 52.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 21.6% 20.0% 12.7% 55.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.354 29.0% 8.5% 19.5% 48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Philadelphia Seattle
Article Image Mark Leiter Jr. Article Image Felix Hernandez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-183 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.178 0.256 22.9% 8.2% 20.4% 51.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.335 28.5% 8.8% 17.9% 52.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.363 21.6% 20.0% 12.7% 55.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.354 29.0% 8.5% 19.5% 48.2%

We typically have a larger afternoon slate on Wednesdays, but there are only two early games on the schedule today. Leiter will take the mound for his second career major league start. He has shown decent upside in the minors, but isn’t considered to be a top pitching prospect. He did pitch well in his first major league start, striking out five batters against the Diamondbacks without allowing a single earned run, but his 5.39 SIERA is a red flag. The Mariners are tough on right-handed pitching and Leiter is listed as a massive underdog on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Even in the two-game early slate, there are better options at pitcher.

Felix Hernandez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $9,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.63 3.82 18.6% 9.9% 50.2% 28.7% 16.6%
2017 6 3.77 4.68 19.4% 2.8% 48.6% 29.4% 16.5%

Hernandez has been trending in the wrong direction in each of the last two seasons. He is no longer King Felix, he is more of a prince these days. In six starts this season, he has a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19%. He has shown good command and has maintained a high ground ball rate, which are both encouraging signs. His matchup against the Phillies is an exploitable one, as they are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: It sounds strange, but Hernandez might be the safest pitching option in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies struggle against right-handed pitching and they struggle on the road. While they catch Felix Hernandez at an opportune time in his career, they are still an easy offense to avoid for the most part. Hernandez has close to an average strikeout rate, he induces a high ground ball rate, and he limits hard contact against him. Outside of a GPP dart throw, the Phillies’ hitters can be avoided in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Perkins RIGHT 0.146 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 N/A N/A
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.326 0.333 0.132 34.8% 7.1% 18.4% 59.1% OF $2,800 2B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.310 0.294 0.141 33.7% 8.8% 31.0% 46.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.320 0.323 0.198 38.3% 5.2% 23.2% 42.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.290 0.319 0.146 28.7% 6.6% 16.2% 45.7% 3B $3,000 3B $2,700 N/A N/A
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.337 0.311 0.154 29.6% 8.3% 20.3% 42.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Andres Blanco SWITCH 0.313 0.308 0.138 26.6% 7.3% 18.8% 50.6% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,300 N/A N/A
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.302 0.274 0.175 28.0% 5.7% 21.1% 40.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.345 0.339 0.171 38.5% 12.5% 28.4% 59.6% C $2,300 C $2,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Seattle

The Mariners draw a boom or bust matchup against rookie Mark Leiter. He may have an ERA under 4.00 in his one start and numerous relief appearances, but his SIERA is well above 5.00 and he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts. The Mariners have the highest implied run total in the early slate and with Leiter’s struggles against right-handed hitters, we can load up on batters from both sides of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.378 0.333 0.174 29.8% 4.9% 13.5% 53.2% SS $3,300 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.350 0.309 0.108 29.7% 9.9% 24.8% 35.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.383 0.392 0.252 39.1% 8.2% 12.1% 45.8% 2B $3,500 2B $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.372 0.374 0.231 35.3% 8.7% 22.7% 44.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.368 0.400 0.212 41.2% 11.2% 15.2% 33.4% 3B $2,800 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.379 0.336 0.207 36.4% 12.7% 20.9% 39.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
7 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.320 0.312 0.141 30.2% 7.1% 24.4% 44.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.326 0.311 0.247 36.9% 7.0% 37.9% 29.7% C $2,700 C $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.312 0.277 0.118 17.3% 7.7% 13.5% 50.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Colorado at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Colorado San Francisco
Article Image Kyle Freeland Article Image Ty Blach
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -102 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.315 36.4% 5.1% 24.1% 38.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.242 0.309 33.0% 6.9% 11.2% 54.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.314 31.5% 10.1% 11.1% 63.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.302 29.8% 5.0% 11.4% 46.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Freeland
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $8,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.93 3.70 13.8% 9.1% 58.5% 32.4% 22.1%

Freeland is a ground ball pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate. If you look strictly at his statistics, he closely resembles Martin Perez from the Rangers. He can generally limit damage against him, but such a low strikeout rate makes it hard for a ground ball pitcher to dominate. Ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls, even though they are usually for singles. Basically, this is a long explanation of why he doesn’t have much upside in DFS. Throw in a matchup against the low-strikeout Giants and he becomes an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland is preferred over Leiter, but he’s the third best pitching option of the four in the early slate.

Ty Blach
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.46 1.06 16.1% 8.1% 57.8% 29.8% 25.5%
2017 12 5.23 4.86 10.5% 5.1% 47.1% 30.9% 19.5%

One of my favorite learning strategies in DFS is to study the lineups of other top fantasy players around the industry. Over the last four or five weeks, I’ve seen a number of sharp players use Blach. In these instances, I like to try to understand why I wasn’t on a certain player when others were on him. It’s easy to figure out the first half of that equation because Blach has shown little to no strikeout upside in the minors or the majors. My best guess as to why others were on him was that he was cheap and playing in AT&T Park. For me, that’s not enough conviction in a play to use him in a full slate. However, in a two-game slate, he is certainly viable as an SP2 against the Rockies, even with his 11% strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: On single-pitcher sites, Hernandez is the play. On multi-pitcher sites, Blach makes a fine SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies draw a decent matchup against Ty Blach, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. The concern here is the ballpark and Blach’s high ground ball rate. It’s hard enough to hit home runs in AT&T Park, especially when you aren’t getting the ball off the ground. The good news is that Blach’s ground ball rate dips down close to the major league average when he’s facing right-handed hitters. DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story all boast a .360+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.375 0.312 0.167 27.6% 5.2% 14.3% 48.7% OF $3,900 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.401 0.390 0.167 36.7% 11.1% 12.2% 47.8% 2B $2,900 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.415 0.370 0.299 37.1% 11.4% 16.2% 28.9% 3B $3,900 3B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.296 0.284 0.105 29.9% 13.1% 26.6% 50.7% 1B $3,300 1B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.350 0.314 0.156 30.7% 4.9% 21.4% 51.3% OF $2,800 1B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.406 0.364 0.323 55.1% 11.8% 34.4% 22.7% SS $2,700 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Raimel Tapia LEFT 0.175 0.197 0.000 40.0% 5.3% 42.1% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Tom Murphy RIGHT 0.212 0.274 0.167 50.0% 11.1% 44.4% 16.7% C $2,000 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Kyle Freeland LEFT 0.088 0.116 0.000 40.0% 0.0% 54.5% 100.0% P $7,300 P $8,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

The Giants have a similar matchup to the Rockies in that they are facing a left-handed pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. Surprisingly enough, Freeland has a 38% ground ball rate against lefties and a 63% ground ball rate against righties. We rarely see that big of a difference, especially with reverse-splits. Don’t be afraid to target Brandon Belt, who is a lefty with excellent numbers against southpaws. The right-handed bats of Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Austin Slater are also in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.265 0.266 0.065 19.1% 6.7% 13.5% 58.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Kelby Tomlinson RIGHT 0.293 0.280 0.041 20.5% 9.1% 15.5% 44.7% 2B $2,500 3B/SS $2,800 N/A N/A
3 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.316 0.311 0.127 35.5% 7.7% 19.2% 42.7% SS $2,700 SS $2,600 N/A N/A
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.408 0.401 0.208 36.2% 13.7% 9.6% 41.1% C $3,400 1B/C $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.335 0.338 0.209 37.1% 8.6% 19.5% 49.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.466 0.348 0.222 53.3% 0.0% 16.7% 46.7% OF $2,700 OF $2,500 N/A N/A
7 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.349 0.359 0.193 32.6% 13.0% 24.4% 33.9% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $4,300 N/A N/A
8 Joe Panik LEFT 0.286 0.300 0.081 24.3% 8.1% 13.6% 48.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Ty Blach LEFT 0.199 0.253 0.071 7.7% 0.0% 18.8% 45.5% P $7,600 P $5,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Austin Slater

Stackability – YELLOW


Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Pittsburgh
Article Image Blake Snell Article Image Ivan Nova
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.292 31.5% 12.4% 27.3% 54.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.362 36.1% 3.4% 12.3% 46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.334 33.0% 13.0% 21.1% 34.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.284 31.2% 3.7% 20.9% 56.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Blake Snell
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.53 3.54 24.4% 12.7% 36.5% 31.4% 22.2%
2017 8 5.50 4.71 18.0% 13.2% 41.7% 35.4% 19.2%

After middling success in the majors this season, the Rays sent Snell back to the minors. We rarely hear that players didn’t make improvements in the minors, but reports suggest that he has made some improvements in his delivery, which should help with his command. I certainly hope he can show better control, because he has a lot of upside when he keeps the ball in the strike zone. It’s going to take more than a report saying he has improved his mechanics for me to play him in DFS, but I will be keeping a close eye on Snell tonight against the Pirates.

Quick Breakdown: In a 13 game slate, Snell is an easy fade in all formats.

Ivan Nova
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 15 4.37 3.06 14.4% 2.7% 49.2% 32.1% 17.0%

Nova is one of the only low-strikeout pitchers in baseball that actually has decent upside. He throws as many strikes as anyone and he gets a lot of outs early in the count. This allows him to pitch deep into games because he keeps his pitch count down. He has pitched at least six innings in every start this season and he has pitched at least seven innings in five of his last seven starts. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Rays, who will also be losing the use of the DH in this series. Nova needs to pitch around the lefties in this lineup, but if he can do that, I like his chances to exceed value at this price.

Quick Breakdown: Nova has more upside than most pitchers with a 14% strikeout rate. He draws a nice matchup tonight and is viable as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and lose the use of the DH in this series. That’s not a great combination for a team that has one of the highest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. When it comes to Ivan Nova, the breakdown is simple: target the lefties and avoid the righties against him. In the last two seasons combined, Nova has allowed a .362 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, while holding righties to a .284 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.358 0.274 0.134 21.3% 11.3% 19.0% 58.2% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.356 0.324 0.267 33.3% 6.4% 21.7% 34.8% OF $4,200 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.351 0.351 0.237 36.0% 6.1% 19.3% 35.6% 3B $3,400 3B $4,400 3B $8,700
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.348 0.371 0.252 40.3% 11.2% 22.5% 39.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.348 0.328 0.210 32.8% 10.0% 31.5% 40.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.324 0.303 0.195 43.8% 5.2% 31.3% 44.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.346 0.342 0.157 35.5% 6.3% 16.2% 55.3% C $2,400 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.253 0.299 0.069 29.3% 4.8% 12.3% 48.1% SS $2,000 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Blake Snell LEFT 0.230 0.249 0.000 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 100.0% P $6,600 P $6,000 P $12,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

I don’t make 150 lineups a night. I usually stick to three or four on each site. One main lineup and then two or three tournament lineups where I try to find correlation plays (stacks) that I like. I’m 99% sure that I have yet to stack the Pirates this season. They play in a bad ballpark and they have very few power hitters in their lineup. The best way to attack the Pirates when they are in a favorable matchup is to use them as one-off targets. Against the lefty Blake Snell, the right-handed bats of Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, and David Freese are all viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.310 0.331 0.151 28.6% 13.0% 14.6% 46.6% SS $2,700 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.375 0.305 0.195 33.6% 5.4% 15.0% 38.2% 2B $3,200 2B/3B $4,100 2B $8,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.375 0.374 0.255 37.6% 13.6% 16.8% 36.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.294 0.289 0.159 26.6% 8.1% 26.0% 46.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.390 0.361 0.173 42.6% 13.5% 25.8% 61.7% 3B $2,800 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
6 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.282 0.262 0.159 22.2% 6.4% 17.0% 55.6% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
7 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.262 0.313 0.165 26.6% 9.0% 18.0% 56.3% 1B $2,800 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
8 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.289 0.266 0.125 30.8% 5.9% 17.6% 61.5% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.058 0.101 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% P $8,100 P $6,400 P $12,800

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, David Freese

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


Chicago Cubs at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Washington
Article Image John Lackey Article Image Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-170 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.347 34.8% 9.2% 19.7% 45.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.267 25.0% 8.1% 30.3% 44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.302 35.4% 5.6% 26.0% 39.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.299 29.5% 6.2% 28.4% 38.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 3.83 3.35 24.1% 7.1% 41.0% 34.4% 16.2%
2017 15 4.30 4.74 21.5% 7.4% 44.1% 36.5% 15.6%

Lackey seems to be trending in the wrong direction. He has less than five strikeouts in each of his last three starts and his SIERA is up to 4.30 on the season. The major red flag is his hard contact rate of 37%. He’s not going to get away with allowing that much hard contact against a talented offense like the Nationals. On the season, Washington is ranked third in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. As a large underdog pitching on the road in a difficult matchup, Lackey is an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: The fountain of youth seems to be drying up.

Stephen Strasburg
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.18 3.60 30.6% 7.4% 39.5% 26.6% 21.4%
2017 15 3.54 3.57 27.5% 6.8% 45.1% 28.4% 20.2%

It doesn’t matter if you have been playing MLB DFS for years or if it has only been a couple of months. Odds are, you have been burned by Strasburg at least once. It’s so strange to see a pitcher with so much talent have so many bad outings each season. He has struggled in each of his last three starts, allowing a combined 13 earned runs and allowing eight or more baserunners in each outing. This would typically lead to a lower ownership, but the pitching options are scarce tonight. I fully expect Strasburg to be the chalk. He’s a big favorite, he’s pitching at home, and he’s facing a Cubs’ offense that has struggled with right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: You might feel the burn, but the Burg is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs scored on Max Scherzer in the first inning last night, but couldn’t get anything going after that. The sledding doesn’t get much easier tonight, as they take on Stephen Strasburg, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. Strasburg also has an elite strikeout rate and is pitching at home, where he has been dominant since coming into the majors.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.383 0.254 36.3% 12.8% 15.4% 36.5% 1B $3,500 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.347 0.237 36.2% 10.6% 22.9% 31.6% 3B $3,200 3B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
3 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.374 0.353 0.313 35.4% 10.6% 31.0% 45.3% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
4 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.301 0.293 0.165 28.9% 7.3% 22.5% 43.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
5 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.322 0.310 0.167 32.0% 13.8% 21.1% 45.9% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.298 0.267 0.156 29.2% 2.1% 25.7% 44.9% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,700 2B $7,200
7 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.276 0.254 0.095 27.8% 5.1% 20.2% 51.9% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 CF $5,200
8 John Lackey RIGHT 0.150 0.165 0.045 25.0% 2.7% 43.2% 60.0% P $8,100 P $6,700 P $13,200
9 Jon Jay LEFT 0.317 0.298 0.102 29.4% 5.4% 21.5% 52.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 CF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are large favorites at home and bring plenty of upside to the table in a matchup against John Lackey, who has allowed a 37% hard contact rate this season. While batters from both sides of the plate are worth a look, Lackey does tend to struggle more against lefties, allowing a .347 xwOBA with a walk rate of 9% in the last two seasons. Don’t be surprised if Adam Lind cracks the lineup tonight, as he has hit Lackey well throughout the years (18-for-43 with six doubles).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.382 0.332 0.219 29.4% 5.1% 17.6% 47.4% SS $4,000 SS $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.329 0.283 0.217 33.7% 8.3% 26.5% 45.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.381 0.396 0.238 34.8% 18.4% 15.9% 39.6% OF $4,600 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.332 0.340 0.195 36.5% 5.6% 22.5% 45.2% 1B $3,800 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.411 0.394 0.251 38.3% 6.8% 8.8% 35.2% 2B $4,000 2B $5,100 2B $10,000
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.345 0.348 0.190 34.8% 10.1% 17.5% 36.9% 3B $3,100 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.301 0.315 0.155 32.8% 6.4% 18.0% 38.2% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.297 0.276 0.192 33.5% 5.2% 32.4% 41.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.176 0.195 0.068 10.9% 2.9% 16.2% 73.3% P $10,300 P $11,600 P $22,400

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman or Adam Lind, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW


Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
Article Image Wade Miley Article Image Marcus Stroman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-175 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.316 35.6% 9.8% 20.7% 55.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.308 33.5% 7.0% 19.4% 61.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 0.348 33.0% 8.3% 19.2% 47.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.314 29.7% 5.5% 19.7% 59.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade Miley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 15 4.84 4.48 19.9% 12.1% 53.0% 33.6% 20.0%

Miley’s low ERA didn’t last long, did it? He’s a perfect example of why we should be looking on simple statistics like ERA. His advanced stats suggested some serious regression and we’ve seen that come true over the last month of play. To his credit, Miley does have an average strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. The issue is his high walk rate (12%) and the hard contact that he allows to both left and right-handed hitters. He is an easy fade tonight against the Blue Jays, whose lineup is loaded with right-handed power bats.

Quick Breakdown: Miley can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,400
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 15 3.75 3.69 20.0% 6.0% 60.3% 31.2% 20.8%

Stroman is one of those pitchers that goes about his business quietly and flies under the radar. He doesn’t have the highest strikeout rate in baseball, but an average strikeout rate combined with a 60% ground ball rate can be a lethal combination. He limits hard contact against him, he can pitch in any ballpark, and he is listed as a large favorite tonight against the Orioles. Stroman will also have the platoon advantage over an Orioles’ lineup that will likely feature seven or eight right-handed hitters. Stroman is a viable pivot off of Stephen Strasburg, especially if you’d rather spend up on hitters in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles aren’t as good offensively as most people think. We know that they struggle against lefties, but they are also ranked below the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against righties. Their matchup against Marcus Stroman is far from appealing, as he induces a 59% ground ball rate when facing both left and right-handed hitters. Seth Smith is viable as a one-off target batting lead-off, but the rest of the Orioles can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.338 0.372 0.177 33.8% 10.7% 21.0% 46.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.341 0.358 0.238 35.6% 7.0% 19.3% 38.0% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.343 0.316 0.206 29.8% 3.4% 20.1% 42.2% 2B $3,300 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.338 0.196 32.5% 5.1% 16.8% 43.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.366 0.376 0.253 36.8% 8.4% 23.4% 39.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.437 0.368 0.303 36.5% 7.4% 25.7% 50.0% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,100 1B $8,000
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.310 0.298 0.149 33.7% 6.1% 27.0% 40.9% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.346 0.348 0.110 29.7% 9.3% 14.7% 50.2% OF $2,200 OF $2,300 IF/OF $4,400
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.157 0.244 0.034 17.0% 6.1% 19.7% 42.2% SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,100 SS $4,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The Blue Jays are on my short list of potential teams to stack tonight. I’m a fan of stacking Toronto against lefties and I’m a fan of stacking offenses against Wade Miley. He is a pitcher with a high walk rate that allows a lot of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. This is a perfect matchup for the Blue Jays, as they will likely roll out nine right-handed hitters against a pitcher that has allowed a .348 xwOBA to righties in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.287 0.341 0.149 35.9% 13.9% 20.6% 45.3% OF $3,900 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.313 0.361 0.161 42.7% 15.8% 28.1% 40.6% C $2,800 C $3,700 C $7,200
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.406 0.414 0.245 38.9% 18.6% 13.8% 34.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.345 0.368 0.171 34.4% 9.8% 15.3% 40.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.387 0.399 0.233 40.6% 4.5% 20.1% 39.6% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.301 0.316 0.155 29.8% 9.1% 15.2% 46.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.398 0.366 0.287 44.1% 12.1% 23.5% 38.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.351 0.319 0.175 35.0% 3.9% 14.0% 37.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.309 0.292 0.077 24.4% 8.1% 17.4% 42.1% SS $2,200 2B/3B $2,500 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki, Steve Pearce

Stackability – GREEN


Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious