MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 28th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Philadelphia at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET
Philadelphia | Seattle | ||||||||||||||
Mark Leiter Jr. | Felix Hernandez | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
SEA-183 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.178 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 20.4% | 51.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.335 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 17.9% | 52.0% | |||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.331 | 21.6% | 20.0% | 12.7% | 55.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.338 | 0.354 | 29.0% | 8.5% | 19.5% | 48.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Philadelphia | Seattle | ||||||||||||||
Mark Leiter Jr. | Felix Hernandez | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
SEA-183 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.178 | 0.256 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 20.4% | 51.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.335 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 17.9% | 52.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.331 | 0.363 | 21.6% | 20.0% | 12.7% | 55.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.338 | 0.354 | 29.0% | 8.5% | 19.5% | 48.2% |
We typically have a larger afternoon slate on Wednesdays, but there are only two early games on the schedule today. Leiter will take the mound for his second career major league start. He has shown decent upside in the minors, but isn’t considered to be a top pitching prospect. He did pitch well in his first major league start, striking out five batters against the Diamondbacks without allowing a single earned run, but his 5.39 SIERA is a red flag. The Mariners are tough on right-handed pitching and Leiter is listed as a massive underdog on the road.
Quick Breakdown: Even in the two-game early slate, there are better options at pitcher.
Felix Hernandez | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 25 | 4.63 | 3.82 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 50.2% | 28.7% | 16.6% | |
2017 | 6 | 3.77 | 4.68 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 48.6% | 29.4% | 16.5% |
Hernandez has been trending in the wrong direction in each of the last two seasons. He is no longer King Felix, he is more of a prince these days. In six starts this season, he has a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19%. He has shown good command and has maintained a high ground ball rate, which are both encouraging signs. His matchup against the Phillies is an exploitable one, as they are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: It sounds strange, but Hernandez might be the safest pitching option in the early slate.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
The Phillies struggle against right-handed pitching and they struggle on the road. While they catch Felix Hernandez at an opportune time in his career, they are still an easy offense to avoid for the most part. Hernandez has close to an average strikeout rate, he induces a high ground ball rate, and he limits hard contact against him. Outside of a GPP dart throw, the Phillies’ hitters can be avoided in this slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cameron Perkins | RIGHT | 0.146 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,500 | N/A | N/A | |
2 | Howie Kendrick | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.333 | 0.132 | 34.8% | 7.1% | 18.4% | 59.1% | OF | $2,800 | 2B/OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.294 | 0.141 | 33.7% | 8.8% | 31.0% | 46.5% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.323 | 0.198 | 38.3% | 5.2% | 23.2% | 42.5% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.319 | 0.146 | 28.7% | 6.6% | 16.2% | 45.7% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.337 | 0.311 | 0.154 | 29.6% | 8.3% | 20.3% | 42.4% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Andres Blanco | SWITCH | 0.313 | 0.308 | 0.138 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 18.8% | 50.6% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/3B | $2,300 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.302 | 0.274 | 0.175 | 28.0% | 5.7% | 21.1% | 40.4% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Andrew Knapp | SWITCH | 0.345 | 0.339 | 0.171 | 38.5% | 12.5% | 28.4% | 59.6% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Seattle
The Mariners draw a boom or bust matchup against rookie Mark Leiter. He may have an ERA under 4.00 in his one start and numerous relief appearances, but his SIERA is well above 5.00 and he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts. The Mariners have the highest implied run total in the early slate and with Leiter’s struggles against right-handed hitters, we can load up on batters from both sides of the plate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jean Segura | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.333 | 0.174 | 29.8% | 4.9% | 13.5% | 53.2% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Ben Gamel | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.309 | 0.108 | 29.7% | 9.9% | 24.8% | 35.5% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,900 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Robinson Cano | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.392 | 0.252 | 39.1% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 45.8% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $5,300 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Nelson Cruz | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.374 | 0.231 | 35.3% | 8.7% | 22.7% | 44.7% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,900 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Kyle Seager | LEFT | 0.368 | 0.400 | 0.212 | 41.2% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 33.4% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Mitch Haniger | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.336 | 0.207 | 36.4% | 12.7% | 20.9% | 39.9% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Danny Valencia | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.312 | 0.141 | 30.2% | 7.1% | 24.4% | 44.7% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Mike Zunino | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.311 | 0.247 | 36.9% | 7.0% | 37.9% | 29.7% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Jarrod Dyson | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.277 | 0.118 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 50.0% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager
Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Colorado at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET
Colorado | San Francisco | ||||||||||||||
Kyle Freeland | Ty Blach | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
SF -102 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.350 | 0.315 | 36.4% | 5.1% | 24.1% | 38.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.242 | 0.309 | 33.0% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 54.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.328 | 0.314 | 31.5% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 63.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.342 | 0.302 | 29.8% | 5.0% | 11.4% | 46.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Freeland | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 15 | 4.93 | 3.70 | 13.8% | 9.1% | 58.5% | 32.4% | 22.1% |
Freeland is a ground ball pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate. If you look strictly at his statistics, he closely resembles Martin Perez from the Rangers. He can generally limit damage against him, but such a low strikeout rate makes it hard for a ground ball pitcher to dominate. Ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls, even though they are usually for singles. Basically, this is a long explanation of why he doesn’t have much upside in DFS. Throw in a matchup against the low-strikeout Giants and he becomes an easy fade in all formats.
Quick Breakdown: Freeland is preferred over Leiter, but he’s the third best pitching option of the four in the early slate.
Ty Blach | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | |||||
Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 2 | 4.46 | 1.06 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 57.8% | 29.8% | 25.5% | |
2017 | 12 | 5.23 | 4.86 | 10.5% | 5.1% | 47.1% | 30.9% | 19.5% |
One of my favorite learning strategies in DFS is to study the lineups of other top fantasy players around the industry. Over the last four or five weeks, I’ve seen a number of sharp players use Blach. In these instances, I like to try to understand why I wasn’t on a certain player when others were on him. It’s easy to figure out the first half of that equation because Blach has shown little to no strikeout upside in the minors or the majors. My best guess as to why others were on him was that he was cheap and playing in AT&T Park. For me, that’s not enough conviction in a play to use him in a full slate. However, in a two-game slate, he is certainly viable as an SP2 against the Rockies, even with his 11% strikeout rate.
Quick Breakdown: On single-pitcher sites, Hernandez is the play. On multi-pitcher sites, Blach makes a fine SP2.
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
The Rockies draw a decent matchup against Ty Blach, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. The concern here is the ballpark and Blach’s high ground ball rate. It’s hard enough to hit home runs in AT&T Park, especially when you aren’t getting the ball off the ground. The good news is that Blach’s ground ball rate dips down close to the major league average when he’s facing right-handed hitters. DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story all boast a .360+ xwOBA against southpaws.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Charlie Blackmon | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.312 | 0.167 | 27.6% | 5.2% | 14.3% | 48.7% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,300 | N/A | N/A |
2 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.401 | 0.390 | 0.167 | 36.7% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 47.8% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.415 | 0.370 | 0.299 | 37.1% | 11.4% | 16.2% | 28.9% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $5,200 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Mark Reynolds | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.284 | 0.105 | 29.9% | 13.1% | 26.6% | 50.7% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Ian Desmond | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.314 | 0.156 | 30.7% | 4.9% | 21.4% | 51.3% | OF | $2,800 | 1B/OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Trevor Story | RIGHT | 0.406 | 0.364 | 0.323 | 55.1% | 11.8% | 34.4% | 22.7% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Raimel Tapia | LEFT | 0.175 | 0.197 | 0.000 | 40.0% | 5.3% | 42.1% | 50.0% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Tom Murphy | RIGHT | 0.212 | 0.274 | 0.167 | 50.0% | 11.1% | 44.4% | 16.7% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Kyle Freeland | LEFT | 0.088 | 0.116 | 0.000 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 54.5% | 100.0% | P | $7,300 | P | $8,500 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
San Francisco
The Giants have a similar matchup to the Rockies in that they are facing a left-handed pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. Surprisingly enough, Freeland has a 38% ground ball rate against lefties and a 63% ground ball rate against righties. We rarely see that big of a difference, especially with reverse-splits. Don’t be afraid to target Brandon Belt, who is a lefty with excellent numbers against southpaws. The right-handed bats of Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Austin Slater are also in play.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Denard Span | LEFT | 0.265 | 0.266 | 0.065 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 58.0% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Kelby Tomlinson | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.280 | 0.041 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 44.7% | 2B | $2,500 | 3B/SS | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Brandon Crawford | LEFT | 0.316 | 0.311 | 0.127 | 35.5% | 7.7% | 19.2% | 42.7% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $2,600 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Buster Posey | RIGHT | 0.408 | 0.401 | 0.208 | 36.2% | 13.7% | 9.6% | 41.1% | C | $3,400 | 1B/C | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Hunter Pence | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.338 | 0.209 | 37.1% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 49.0% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Austin Slater | RIGHT | 0.466 | 0.348 | 0.222 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 46.7% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,500 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Brandon Belt | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.359 | 0.193 | 32.6% | 13.0% | 24.4% | 33.9% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B/OF | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Joe Panik | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.300 | 0.081 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 48.3% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Ty Blach | LEFT | 0.199 | 0.253 | 0.071 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 18.8% | 45.5% | P | $7,600 | P | $5,700 | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Buster Posey
Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Austin Slater
Stackability – YELLOW
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||||||
Blake Snell | Ivan Nova | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
PIT-120 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.291 | 0.292 | 31.5% | 12.4% | 27.3% | 54.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.345 | 0.362 | 36.1% | 3.4% | 12.3% | 46.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.340 | 0.334 | 33.0% | 13.0% | 21.1% | 34.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.292 | 0.284 | 31.2% | 3.7% | 20.9% | 56.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Blake Snell | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 19 | 4.53 | 3.54 | 24.4% | 12.7% | 36.5% | 31.4% | 22.2% | |
2017 | 8 | 5.50 | 4.71 | 18.0% | 13.2% | 41.7% | 35.4% | 19.2% |
After middling success in the majors this season, the Rays sent Snell back to the minors. We rarely hear that players didn’t make improvements in the minors, but reports suggest that he has made some improvements in his delivery, which should help with his command. I certainly hope he can show better control, because he has a lot of upside when he keeps the ball in the strike zone. It’s going to take more than a report saying he has improved his mechanics for me to play him in DFS, but I will be keeping a close eye on Snell tonight against the Pirates.
Quick Breakdown: In a 13 game slate, Snell is an easy fade in all formats.
Ivan Nova | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $12,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 26 | 3.76 | 4.17 | 18.6% | 4.1% | 53.6% | 34.4% | 18.5% | |
2017 | 15 | 4.37 | 3.06 | 14.4% | 2.7% | 49.2% | 32.1% | 17.0% |
Nova is one of the only low-strikeout pitchers in baseball that actually has decent upside. He throws as many strikes as anyone and he gets a lot of outs early in the count. This allows him to pitch deep into games because he keeps his pitch count down. He has pitched at least six innings in every start this season and he has pitched at least seven innings in five of his last seven starts. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Rays, who will also be losing the use of the DH in this series. Nova needs to pitch around the lefties in this lineup, but if he can do that, I like his chances to exceed value at this price.
Quick Breakdown: Nova has more upside than most pitchers with a 14% strikeout rate. He draws a nice matchup tonight and is viable as an SP2.
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
The Rays are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and lose the use of the DH in this series. That’s not a great combination for a team that has one of the highest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. When it comes to Ivan Nova, the breakdown is simple: target the lefties and avoid the righties against him. In the last two seasons combined, Nova has allowed a .362 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, while holding righties to a .284 xwOBA.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.274 | 0.134 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 19.0% | 58.2% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
2 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.356 | 0.324 | 0.267 | 33.3% | 6.4% | 21.7% | 34.8% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,200 |
3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.351 | 0.237 | 36.0% | 6.1% | 19.3% | 35.6% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $8,700 |
4 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.371 | 0.252 | 40.3% | 11.2% | 22.5% | 39.0% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $8,800 |
5 | Steve Souza | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.328 | 0.210 | 32.8% | 10.0% | 31.5% | 40.7% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,100 |
6 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.303 | 0.195 | 43.8% | 5.2% | 31.3% | 44.2% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $6,000 |
7 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.342 | 0.157 | 35.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 55.3% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,600 |
8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.253 | 0.299 | 0.069 | 29.3% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 48.1% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $4,800 |
9 | Blake Snell | LEFT | 0.230 | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 100.0% | P | $6,600 | P | $6,000 | P | $12,000 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison
Stackability – ORANGE
Pittsburgh
I don’t make 150 lineups a night. I usually stick to three or four on each site. One main lineup and then two or three tournament lineups where I try to find correlation plays (stacks) that I like. I’m 99% sure that I have yet to stack the Pirates this season. They play in a bad ballpark and they have very few power hitters in their lineup. The best way to attack the Pirates when they are in a favorable matchup is to use them as one-off targets. Against the lefty Blake Snell, the right-handed bats of Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, and David Freese are all viable one-off targets.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.331 | 0.151 | 28.6% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 46.6% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $6,900 |
2 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.305 | 0.195 | 33.6% | 5.4% | 15.0% | 38.2% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B/3B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,000 |
3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.374 | 0.255 | 37.6% | 13.6% | 16.8% | 36.8% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,100 |
4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.294 | 0.289 | 0.159 | 26.6% | 8.1% | 26.0% | 46.9% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,300 | RF | $6,400 |
5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.390 | 0.361 | 0.173 | 42.6% | 13.5% | 25.8% | 61.7% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,400 |
6 | Jose Osuna | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.262 | 0.159 | 22.2% | 6.4% | 17.0% | 55.6% | OF | $2,400 | 1B/OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
7 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.262 | 0.313 | 0.165 | 26.6% | 9.0% | 18.0% | 56.3% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
8 | Elias Diaz | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.266 | 0.125 | 30.8% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 61.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
9 | Ivan Nova | RIGHT | 0.058 | 0.101 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | P | $8,100 | P | $6,400 | P | $12,800 |
Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen
Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, David Freese
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Chicago Cubs at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
Chicago Cubs | Washington | ||||||||||||||
John Lackey | Stephen Strasburg | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
WAS-170 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.347 | 34.8% | 9.2% | 19.7% | 45.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.273 | 0.267 | 25.0% | 8.1% | 30.3% | 44.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.283 | 0.302 | 35.4% | 5.6% | 26.0% | 39.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.284 | 0.299 | 29.5% | 6.2% | 28.4% | 38.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
John Lackey | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 29 | 3.83 | 3.35 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 41.0% | 34.4% | 16.2% | |
2017 | 15 | 4.30 | 4.74 | 21.5% | 7.4% | 44.1% | 36.5% | 15.6% |
Lackey seems to be trending in the wrong direction. He has less than five strikeouts in each of his last three starts and his SIERA is up to 4.30 on the season. The major red flag is his hard contact rate of 37%. He’s not going to get away with allowing that much hard contact against a talented offense like the Nationals. On the season, Washington is ranked third in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. As a large underdog pitching on the road in a difficult matchup, Lackey is an easy fade.
Quick Breakdown: The fountain of youth seems to be drying up.
Stephen Strasburg | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $10,300 | Salary: | $11,600 | Salary: | $22,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 24 | 3.18 | 3.60 | 30.6% | 7.4% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 21.4% | |
2017 | 15 | 3.54 | 3.57 | 27.5% | 6.8% | 45.1% | 28.4% | 20.2% |
It doesn’t matter if you have been playing MLB DFS for years or if it has only been a couple of months. Odds are, you have been burned by Strasburg at least once. It’s so strange to see a pitcher with so much talent have so many bad outings each season. He has struggled in each of his last three starts, allowing a combined 13 earned runs and allowing eight or more baserunners in each outing. This would typically lead to a lower ownership, but the pitching options are scarce tonight. I fully expect Strasburg to be the chalk. He’s a big favorite, he’s pitching at home, and he’s facing a Cubs’ offense that has struggled with right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: You might feel the burn, but the Burg is an elite play in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs scored on Max Scherzer in the first inning last night, but couldn’t get anything going after that. The sledding doesn’t get much easier tonight, as they take on Stephen Strasburg, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. Strasburg also has an elite strikeout rate and is pitching at home, where he has been dominant since coming into the majors.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.389 | 0.383 | 0.254 | 36.3% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 36.5% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,700 |
2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.376 | 0.347 | 0.237 | 36.2% | 10.6% | 22.9% | 31.6% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
3 | Ian Happ | SWITCH | 0.374 | 0.353 | 0.313 | 35.4% | 10.6% | 31.0% | 45.3% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
4 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.293 | 0.165 | 28.9% | 7.3% | 22.5% | 43.3% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
5 | Miguel Montero | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.310 | 0.167 | 32.0% | 13.8% | 21.1% | 45.9% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
6 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.267 | 0.156 | 29.2% | 2.1% | 25.7% | 44.9% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/SS | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
7 | Albert Almora | RIGHT | 0.276 | 0.254 | 0.095 | 27.8% | 5.1% | 20.2% | 51.9% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,600 | CF | $5,200 |
8 | John Lackey | RIGHT | 0.150 | 0.165 | 0.045 | 25.0% | 2.7% | 43.2% | 60.0% | P | $8,100 | P | $6,700 | P | $13,200 |
9 | Jon Jay | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.298 | 0.102 | 29.4% | 5.4% | 21.5% | 52.1% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,700 | CF | $5,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Washington
The Nationals are large favorites at home and bring plenty of upside to the table in a matchup against John Lackey, who has allowed a 37% hard contact rate this season. While batters from both sides of the plate are worth a look, Lackey does tend to struggle more against lefties, allowing a .347 xwOBA with a walk rate of 9% in the last two seasons. Don’t be surprised if Adam Lind cracks the lineup tonight, as he has hit Lackey well throughout the years (18-for-43 with six doubles).
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.332 | 0.219 | 29.4% | 5.1% | 17.6% | 47.4% | SS | $4,000 | SS | $5,000 | IF/OF | $9,900 |
2 | Brian Goodwin | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.283 | 0.217 | 33.7% | 8.3% | 26.5% | 45.2% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,500 |
3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.396 | 0.238 | 34.8% | 18.4% | 15.9% | 39.6% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,200 | RF | $10,000 |
4 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.340 | 0.195 | 36.5% | 5.6% | 22.5% | 45.2% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $9,000 |
5 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.411 | 0.394 | 0.251 | 38.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 35.2% | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $5,100 | 2B | $10,000 |
6 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.348 | 0.190 | 34.8% | 10.1% | 17.5% | 36.9% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $4,500 | 3B | $8,700 |
7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.315 | 0.155 | 32.8% | 6.4% | 18.0% | 38.2% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
8 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.276 | 0.192 | 33.5% | 5.2% | 32.4% | 41.4% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
9 | Stephen Strasburg | RIGHT | 0.176 | 0.195 | 0.068 | 10.9% | 2.9% | 16.2% | 73.3% | P | $10,300 | P | $11,600 | P | $22,400 |
Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy
Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman or Adam Lind, Anthony Rendon
Stackability – YELLOW
Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
Baltimore | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
Wade Miley | Marcus Stroman | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TOR-175 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.284 | 0.316 | 35.6% | 9.8% | 20.7% | 55.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.307 | 0.308 | 33.5% | 7.0% | 19.4% | 61.1% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.358 | 0.348 | 33.0% | 8.3% | 19.2% | 47.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.321 | 0.314 | 29.7% | 5.5% | 19.7% | 59.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Wade Miley | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $11,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 4.21 | 5.37 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 47.3% | 33.3% | 17.3% | |
2017 | 15 | 4.84 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 12.1% | 53.0% | 33.6% | 20.0% |
Miley’s low ERA didn’t last long, did it? He’s a perfect example of why we should be looking on simple statistics like ERA. His advanced stats suggested some serious regression and we’ve seen that come true over the last month of play. To his credit, Miley does have an average strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. The issue is his high walk rate (12%) and the hard contact that he allows to both left and right-handed hitters. He is an easy fade tonight against the Blue Jays, whose lineup is loaded with right-handed power bats.
Quick Breakdown: Miley can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Marcus Stroman | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $17,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 3.62 | 4.37 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 60.1% | 31.8% | 18.3% | |
2017 | 15 | 3.75 | 3.69 | 20.0% | 6.0% | 60.3% | 31.2% | 20.8% |
Stroman is one of those pitchers that goes about his business quietly and flies under the radar. He doesn’t have the highest strikeout rate in baseball, but an average strikeout rate combined with a 60% ground ball rate can be a lethal combination. He limits hard contact against him, he can pitch in any ballpark, and he is listed as a large favorite tonight against the Orioles. Stroman will also have the platoon advantage over an Orioles’ lineup that will likely feature seven or eight right-handed hitters. Stroman is a viable pivot off of Stephen Strasburg, especially if you’d rather spend up on hitters in this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Stroman is an elite play in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
The Orioles aren’t as good offensively as most people think. We know that they struggle against lefties, but they are also ranked below the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against righties. Their matchup against Marcus Stroman is far from appealing, as he induces a 59% ground ball rate when facing both left and right-handed hitters. Seth Smith is viable as a one-off target batting lead-off, but the rest of the Orioles can be avoided.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Seth Smith | LEFT | 0.338 | 0.372 | 0.177 | 33.8% | 10.7% | 21.0% | 46.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,900 |
2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.358 | 0.238 | 35.6% | 7.0% | 19.3% | 38.0% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,800 |
3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.316 | 0.206 | 29.8% | 3.4% | 20.1% | 42.2% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $8,400 |
4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.196 | 32.5% | 5.1% | 16.8% | 43.8% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
5 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.376 | 0.253 | 36.8% | 8.4% | 23.4% | 39.2% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,200 | IF/OF | $6,300 |
6 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.437 | 0.368 | 0.303 | 36.5% | 7.4% | 25.7% | 50.0% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B/OF | $4,100 | 1B | $8,000 |
7 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.298 | 0.149 | 33.7% | 6.1% | 27.0% | 40.9% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
8 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.346 | 0.348 | 0.110 | 29.7% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 50.2% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,300 | IF/OF | $4,400 |
9 | Ruben Tejada | RIGHT | 0.157 | 0.244 | 0.034 | 17.0% | 6.1% | 19.7% | 42.2% | SS | $2,000 | 3B/SS | $2,100 | SS | $4,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Seth Smith
Stackability – RED
Toronto
The Blue Jays are on my short list of potential teams to stack tonight. I’m a fan of stacking Toronto against lefties and I’m a fan of stacking offenses against Wade Miley. He is a pitcher with a high walk rate that allows a lot of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. This is a perfect matchup for the Blue Jays, as they will likely roll out nine right-handed hitters against a pitcher that has allowed a .348 xwOBA to righties in the last two seasons.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.341 | 0.149 | 35.9% | 13.9% | 20.6% | 45.3% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $3,900 | RF | $7,600 |
2 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.361 | 0.161 | 42.7% | 15.8% | 28.1% | 40.6% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,700 | C | $7,200 |
3 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.406 | 0.414 | 0.245 | 38.9% | 18.6% | 13.8% | 34.9% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,400 |
4 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.345 | 0.368 | 0.171 | 34.4% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 40.2% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $8,400 |
5 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.387 | 0.399 | 0.233 | 40.6% | 4.5% | 20.1% | 39.6% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,800 |
6 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.316 | 0.155 | 29.8% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 46.8% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,300 |
7 | Steve Pearce | RIGHT | 0.398 | 0.366 | 0.287 | 44.1% | 12.1% | 23.5% | 38.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | 1B | $7,200 |
8 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.319 | 0.175 | 35.0% | 3.9% | 14.0% | 37.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
9 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.292 | 0.077 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 17.4% | 42.1% | SS | $2,200 | 2B/3B | $2,500 | 2B | $4,800 |